Links 27 May 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


  1. migtronixMEMBER

    “Italy Says 96% of Virus Fatalities Suffered From Other Illnesses

    old, about 30% of those infected are under 50. Still, fatalities point to a wider generation gap. ISS analysis shows that as of May 25 only about 1.1% of virus fatalities have been under 50 years of age and more than 57% were over 80.

    Noone has a right to infect anyone but they have right to be fat disgusting boomers and shutdown the whole world, do they skip?

    This thing could finally have solved our boomer problem and instead we induce a depression. FU.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        Lol muppet!

        “The virus then spreads through a population that’s less resilient. People in the developing world grapple not only with the diseases that have long been associated with it — malaria, dengue, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS — but increasingly with those more closely associated with wealthier countries. Rates of diabetes, obesity and hypertension are surging. But treatment for many such illnesses is lacking.”

        Children die in Africa from malaria all the time too, anywhere else not so much – let’s lockdown the first world!

        • Lmmao* you just fling a bunch of stuff around without any medical background or trusted sources – because your ideological bias demands it ….

          I did link to a list of the “basic” knowns and ***unknowns*** of corvid19, additionally, I clearly stated it will take about 2 years – at minimum – for comprehensive evidence of a global scale to be on offer. What we knew before corvid19 was the human population was both due for an event, as well, we can expect more of them and at an increasing rate due to AGW – plus other human activities.

          The funnie [tm] part about all the teeth gnashing and hair pulling from some is that kinda thinking would go down with McNamara’s “logic” in burning huge swaths of Japans civilian population to win the war. Even with nukes some consider the options of the USSR vs the U.S. as invaders sealed the deal. Seems the U.S. option meant Japan could keep its Emperor, something MacArthur [and others] made packet on and served the purpose of ring fencing the USSR pre cold war, where the USSR option was a non deity or non traditional social order outcome.

          Next thing you know your in Vietnam and this “logic” [based on wonky maths] is empiric and the politician – capital nexus is completely invested in it, which then becomes a two’fer as France hoards gold and the U.S. hits upper bound inflation, but the tax is theft clown car means Volcker creams labour with high IR … that like the aforementioned becomes “logic” and used like a crack wh0re endlessly to stave off ev’bal inflation – pats self on back endlessly whilst the middle class in liquidated to the cheers of the billionaire class – hugs Gates, Thiel, Musk, Bezos, et al doll collection ….

    • Except we didn’t induce a depression.

      But we did get an excuse for massive fiscal spend (as everyone around here liked to wish for). Now you get to find out that “fiscal” has a very similar effect to “lower teh rates”.

      Don’t say you hadn’t been warned.

      • migtronixMEMBER

        You need to tell these idiots then, they think it’s do or die…

        “The North East Link toll road is too financially important to Victoria to be stopped, especially amid the coronavirus pandemic’s economic fallout, the Andrews government has argued.

    • but even saying that 57% of those who died were over 80 and sick is quit misleading – one can think everyone over 80 died

      reality is even less bad:
      In Bergamo where almost everyone got infected and where hospitals had to turn people away only 4.7% of those between 80 and 90 who got infected died. In a normal year without coronavirus 6.6% of people from that age group die. Among those over 90 who got infected only 10% died while in a normal year 20% of them die – check table 2 (BTW. the paper estimates there were twice as many coronavirus deaths than officially reported so this is close to the worst case scenario)

      So even if one is very old (>80) and unlucky to get infected, one has 95% percent of surviving … when you are that old such a large likelihood of surviving is quite rare … coronavirus really doesn’t make much difference at all – maybe few months at the worst … we’ll see that at the end of the year but Italy, France and Spain are already recording substantial decrease in deaths in last two weeks

    • At least we know nobody would have been dumb enough to return the elderly COVID infected “stable” patients back to their nursing homes.
      Oh wait,

  2. Some around here were musing about Hertz:

    Hertz Was Already in Terrible Shape. The Pandemic Finished It Off. Wall Street Journal Disgraceful. No mention of Hertz’s notorious dividend recap shortly after private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice bought it in 2005. It’s been walking wounded since then.

    Was going to have a gander at its ownership with relation to some PE mob, usual suspects, but could not be bothered due to most around here putting it all down to some sort of money crankery or Govbement* involvement [gezz revolving door – lobbyist greasy palm thingy] … But then most don’t want to contend with who was driving the buss in the lead up to the FIRE sector template.

    But then I hear you could make it big fighting unions, public sector, and suppressing wages whilst the billionaire class explodes, seems even Larry S. the bellwether of what is “acceptable to say” has been on the record of late.

    Enjoy your invisible fist …

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Thanks Skip. There’s always been a stark contrast between rental cost in Oz and the US. Private equity. Makes a bit more sense now.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Just looked at the rates for a medium sedan between MEL & SFO for Mon to Fri next week:
        – MEL $A375-
        – SFO $US662-
        The Oz price is very cheap. I wonder if there is a $300- key pick up fee that has not been listed. Price includes all the General Car Insurance options.

        • that must be because MEL is now dead due to our covid measures measures

          SFO has now more flights in 30 min than MEL in a day (18 flights A/D), normally SFO has less than twice as many passengers

  3. So, bin day around here and the slave labour that doesn’t get the gov. handouts are cracking. Multiple bin divers delving in our recycle bins taking stuff they can sell. Savings must be done, never happened before around here.

    Steve Keen’s virus adventures make it plain what countries have to do to survive and thrive……we are on the right track except for our foolish ideas about masks which no doubt are meant to help spread the idea that this over, when we are just settling in for a long innings of learning how to live with the virus.

    Incredible the $ 7 US ATM charge in Thailand, but it looks like a Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere travel bubble might form.

    • while he is right criticizing mainstream economists who believe in a fairy tale of neoclassical economic assumptions, he is falling into the same trap when it comes to fairy tale of virus eradication

      NZ is having very few or no cases daily for a month and still as far from eradication as they were a month ago …
      This virus will stay with us forever and even if by some miracle a country manages to eradicate it in few weeks it would come back from some part of the world …

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Keen’s post is well reasoned, well researched and industrious.

        It highlights the countries that make stuff (have an industrial base and political organization that revolves around manufacturing) are doing best at dealing with the virus. Along with Oz and NZ. We seem to have been pulled along in North Asia’s wake.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Interesting I’ve heard similar, bloke that does complex maintenance told me the other day we wishes he’d been fired because he’d make more money on the dole doing nothing than he does running around in the freezing at 7am.
      Can’t argue with that…. Idiot fcking Morrison.

  4. Arthur Schopenhauer

    If your Economy needs mass immigration to exist, you don’t have an Economy.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Mandatory enrollment in an undergrad program as a JobSeeker requirement? Surly that will work.

        • *loads shottie* Blam!

          Sorry your’onor, he needed a killin’ … what with the giving them ideas and all…

      • You maybe surprised to be informed, at least in the U.S. case, its been argued in court that some of these private Universities don’t supply their ****consumers**** with an Education miggy … they supply “credentials” …

        Now you might need to pop a few extra smart pills so your memory can remember – when – the free market posse said the private system [for profit motive and market forces ™] was the ultimate means of delivering an Education, furthermore that people needed skin in the game [no layabout pro students or non market based degrees] because people in debt work harder et al. So hows that widgets and cogs to service the market working out …. chortle ….

  5. drsmithyMEMBER

    Is the “Post Edit” function broken for everyone or is it just me (goes to an empty browser window rather than a floating edit window) ?

    • Same here, just have to refresh to previous window before comment.

      BTW working on a house just off Honor Ave before the Long St lights heading to Indo, gentleman across the road next to my brother in laws old house asked for a quote – rewards of doing well … almost everything is referral or locals watching works now – 4 houses on the same block in Bardon in less than 2 years … who said Capitalism can’t be fun and rewarding ….