Links 21 May 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


  1. The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data

    Objective To estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from data of seroprevalence studies. Methods Population studies with sample size of at least 500 and published as peer-reviewed papers or preprints as of May 12, 2020 were retrieved from PubMed, preprint servers, and communications with experts. Studies on blood donors were included, but studies on healthcare workers were excluded. The studies were assessed for design features and seroprevalence estimates. Infection fatality rate was estimated from each study dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths at a relevant time point by the number of estimated people infected in each relevant region. Correction was also attempted accounting for the types of antibodies assessed. Results Twelve studies were identified with usable data to enter into calculations. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.113% to 25.9% and adjusted seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.309% to 33%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.03% to 0.50% and corrected values ranged from 0.02% to 0.40%.

    basically a glorified common cold that due to it’s novelty kills some very old and frail persons who didn’t have a chance to gain immunity in youth.
    After causing initial deaths due to it;s novelty it will stay with us forever and become one now 5 common cold viruses

  2. roylefamilyMEMBER

    Superb anecdata!
    Nephew is at Uni. His mate played three landlords against each other in Carlton. Detached three bedder $620/week secured.

    • migtronixMEMBER

      That’s not bad. Still reckon it should be more like $500.

      Im definitely seeing for lease signs up all over Carlton that I haven’t seen in years, otoh with wfh and everything shut Carlton is a horrible spot to be.

    • McPaddyMEMBER

      As long as it’s really easy for you to move when the pendulum swings back in favour of the owners then, go for your life. Personally, moving is very difficult, so I think it’s a good policy not to play hardball during this temporary respite. What goes around comes around.

    • Sweet move.
      I am also enjoying the rental market in Sydney and am substantially upgrading my abode for LESS than I was paying before.
      I feels nice 🙂

    • migtronixMEMBER

      Morris mate, I reckon this has laid bare for all how the “West” has done everything wrong since 2008.

      With over a billion people China stopped it dead, but the austerity fetish coupled with centrally bank planned financialised economies of Europe and the US could only cure equity markets as thousands died and millions made unemployed…


    Australia handling Covid consequences better than NZ: PM’s Business Advisory Council … Fran O’Sullivan … New Zealand Herald
    h/t PL …

    The Prime Minister’s powerful Business Advisory Council has delivered her a cutting message that Australia is “co-optimising” the economic consequences of the Covid-19 outbreak better than New Zealand.

    “Australia is currently co-optimising the wellbeing of the Covid outbreak and the wellbeing consequences of the economy better than New Zealand,” said council chair Fraser Whineray, who is chief operating officer at Fonterra. “If we don’t martial the best possible team for both recovery and reform, we will exacerbate the slide against our greatest comparator and lose even more of our most precious asset, our people.”

    “That risks a younger generation not only inheriting greater debt, but also makes Aotearoa a less desirable place to live with substantially less wellbeing. ” … read more via hyperlink above …
    Access recent related MB post …


    • ‘Member the whining about last summer’s drought (and fires) that were going to finally break and roon us?

      But the rains came, as they always do….

      Looking forward to next summer.

      • Might depend where you are if you think you’ve had enough rain…. Far South Coast needs a Lot more over Winter or it’ll be another rough Summer.

    • The rabbits who ate my self seeded transplanted tree yesterday aren’t fake either.

      If we don’t have a drought this summer I’ll be very pleased. That emotion won’t be fake either 😊

  4. Covid test effectiveness:

    Over the 4 days of infection before the typical time of symptom onset (day 5), the probability of a false-negative result in an infected person decreases from 100% (95% CI, 100% to 100%) on day 1 to 67% (CI, 27% to 94%) on day 4. On the day of symptom onset, the median false-negative rate was 38% (CI, 18% to 65%).
    This decreased to 20% (CI, 12% to 30%) on day 8 (3 days after symptom onset) then began to increase again, from 21% (CI, 13% to 31%) on day 9 to 66% (CI, 54% to 77%) on day 21.

  5. A few virus and vaccine matters to consider …

    Why We Might Not Need A Vaccine for COVID-19 | This Morning UK … YouTube

    Leading oncologist Professor Karol Sikora raised eyebrows this week when he said a coronavirus vaccine might not be needed. Making the comments on Twitter, the Professor said Covid-19 could ‘peter out’ before a much-awaited vaccine arrives. But is he right? And what do the new testing rules mean for us?
    Scientist says a coronavirus vaccine in just 12 months is ‘fake news’ | 60 Minutes Australia … YouTube

    Right now, there’s one thing all eight billion people on earth are wishing for: A vaccine for COVID-19. Political leaders everywhere, sweating on getting us to the other side of the pandemic, boldly promise it’ll happen within 12 to 18 months. But why should they be so optimistic? After all, vaccines normally take decades to formulate and manufacture, and quite often success never comes. As Liam Bartlett finds out, some scientists say talk of a coronavirus vaccine is not only raising false hope, it’s fake news.

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