Iron ore prices for May 187, 2020:
We’ve now got a pretty good restocking pulse going. Some of it is doubtless steel mills looking at Chinese stimulus but the recovery is still slow and halting:
The more important driver remains the supply side, in particular Brazil, which is inking into virus hell. Only six weeks ago it had roughly the same case numbers as Australia. Now it is number five globally and charging towards the top:
And that’s with poor testing infrastructure. Corrupt, poor, jam-packed and entering Winter. Brazil is an unfolding virus disaster.
It remains to be seen whether or not there’ll be an impact on mining, which is designated essential, but while a typical Chinese seasonal restocking period combines with the stimulus, and this supply risk, nobody is going sit around to wait and see.