Another question that preoccupies investors is whether we are facing a V or W or U-shaped recovery, and the possibility that what has started as an attack on the P&L might morph into a far more deadly and prolonged balance sheet recession.
1. First, regarding the shape of recovery, it is quite possible that it could be fast. As we have discussed in our notes, the pace will depend on lowering COVID-related panic and pacifying the petrodollar complex.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
