MB Fund Podcast: Will Coronavirus collapse the Australian Property market? With Martin North

*Audio issues are resolved and edited out, apologies for those listening live who had to put up with those first few minutes.* Will Coronavirus collapse the Australian Property market? Martin North of Digital Finance Analytics joins the podcast to discuss what his mortgage stress consumer surveys are showing.

Mortgage stress has jumped alarmingly this month, with 200,000 households added to the stressed list, and there are more to come (even allowing for the various stimulus packages). We’ll dive into what this means for the Australian Property market and Australian economy as a whole going forward.

You can find Martin North at Digital Finance Analytics and on YouTube

Slides available here

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Tim Fuller is Head of Operations at the Macrobusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.


The information on this blog contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Tim Fuller is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd – AFSL 515796.

Comments

  1. Martin North doesn’t even understand what MMT is, and therefore can’t comprehend the level of support the australian government will supply to protect asset prices

    Why are we listening to him?

    • matthewMEMBER

      No one said you had to . Similarly we don’t need to listen to you-so we shall not

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        +1 matthew. A troll who has nothing factual to add really should be ignored. Opinion Trolling is merely a distraction from the core discussion.

    • GlendaFMEMBER

      Hey Coming,
      You arr are consistent in your insistence that Scomo wil save it all with money, money, money……..(I hate ABBA), and that most certainly is what has occurred in the past, but things were starting to ‘fray at the seams’ even before the virus.
      I’m keen to hear what your forcast is for a more extended period? Do you really believe that the same ZIRP and MMT type policies can keep all these balls up in the air forever and fix everything? Do you never see an end to this being ‘successful’ ?(however you define that)

      • Venetian Mask

        Imagine his embarrassment if the government doesn’t go to extraordinary, unprecedented lengths to screw the majority of Australians in favour of a small minority of property speculators.

      • Not Coming, but I reckon in the short-term they can’t stop deflation. In the long-term we will all look like Zimbabwe, unless we get some kind of political change that will prevent the CBs going crazy. Zimbabwe asset prices would have been pretty high before they essentially switched to USD, but in real terms I bet they were down.

        In the recent Iranian inflation I knew an Iranian who had a close friend with a couple properties in Tehran. The prices of his properties were up, but in real terms down by a third. While I see mass inflation long term, it doesn’t mean property price increases will counter the inflation perfectly.

        • So basically your telling people to hold onto property and ride the wave. Because lets be honest while prices might dip with the repayment holidays every seller knows a global pandemic is definitely the bottom and I won’t be able to get buyers right now anyway due to self-isolation and lockdowns in force.

          Take the losses because its too late to get out, and ride the wave of hyper inflation on the other side.

          Real prices don’t really matter at all btw given the debt level; all that matters is if the return of equity is higher than inflation which is mostly determined by nominal prices due to leverage.

  2. Chinese Virus

    There are still bullets in the chamber.

    Our debt isn’t that bad compared to the US, UK, Japan.

    The RentSeeker initiatives will be extended for another 6 months if we’re still locked down or the economy is very sluggish come October.

    The government isn’t going to give up on all this stimulus until the virus is no longer a threat otherwise the $300 billion they just spend will be for naught.

    Property will struggle going forward, but dreams of a 40% drop are just that dreams.

    They’ll call a 2 year moratorium on repayments if they have to.

    • They will print; and so will every other country. Savings will be pummeled but relatively everyone is in the same boat. It may be the thing that in the long term breaks our low inflation “issue” governments and stakeholders seem to brag about. All depends on what Governments do and how they finance their expenditure.

      The smart thing (from the Governments shoes) would be to print money to plug all obligations so that the economy can go into “pause” mode. If all money printed is offsetted by debt reduction/payment obligations the end effect should not be inflationary (because debt = money) and potentially substitutes debt for money which in this system is less fragile. They are already doing that with things like childcare costs; and will keep plugging “holes’ in typical recurrent expenditure causing incurred debts.

  3. on the inverse to this discussion in the video – there are these two lunatics
    (2 properties at 27 – How did Josh Do it)
    https://youtu.be/jP6cfVH1oC8
    To paraphrase, The channel owner in the comments claims that “we have faced these (covid like) headwinds before”