MB Fund Podcast: Is AUD a Coronavirus safe haven?

It was the absolute whipping boy of the crisis. Now it’s the superstar of the markets rebound. Is the AUD now a safe haven of the Coronavirus crisis? On the agenda, we discuss the rebound and and the drivers of AUD to investigate further.

Drivers covered will include:
1. global and Australian growth (or, more recently, Chinese growth and Australia’s terms of trade);
2. interest rate differentials;
3. investor sentiment and technicals; and
4. the relative strength of the US dollar.

We’ll conclude by discussing the investment implications of this going forward

Join MB Fund’s Head of Investments Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith, and Head of Operations Tim Fuller as they cover “IS AUD a Coronavirus safe haven?”.

View the webinar slides here

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Tim Fuller is Head of Operations at the Macrobusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.

 

The information on this blog contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Tim Fuller is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd – AFSL 515796.

Comments

    • You can say that for any other country except for a couple of countries in central and northern Europe.

      • Correct. Straya, right now is one of the cleaner ‘dirty shirts’ — it has less Covid infections than almost any other western nation. That’s enough for investors. What the economy looks like down the road is another matter entirely.

    • Narapoia451MEMBER

      The argument that it is a bellweather for risk appetite seems a strongish one.

      I bought some last week as I figured the halving has preceded previous bull runs and that run is due at some point this year if it’s going to happen. I wish I’d bought more though – would consider pulling some out now already if that was the case. But I keep crypto purchases on the small side.

    • Essentially your position is: almost no one’s had it here therefore almost everyone is vulnerable when the subsequent waves hit?

      Serious question from an open-minded observer.

  1. Thanks guys. Another great discussion. I only disagree with David’s opinion of USD falling with a global recovery. In the current global situation, I think the opposite will occur. I think the US will come out of this better than any other region.

    Trump will easily win the next election. Global capital will pour into the US once the c19 has passed.

    Oil prices will be supported. And the rebound will be fast and strong. Iron ore is a completely different story. It won’t be supported. It will be a longer term suppression of prices. It will be reflected in the AUD and the Australian economy. Those Mums and Dads are really going feel it.

    USA doesn’t care about iron ore prices and won’t do any behind the scenes price support or funny business. Nor is there an equivalent OPEC for iron ore to manipulate or support iron ore prices.

    My opinion is USD going from strength to strength and for the following couple of years at least. AUD being technically traded, traded on virus curves and not economic fundamentals and may even break through 0.70 in the very short term. After that, it will be a broken bungee cord fall down. Possibly even lower than 0.50.

    I also predict a gold price bubble crash. Which won’t do the AUD any favours either.

    Could be wrong of course!