Weekend Reading: 28-29 March 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:






Leith van Onselen


  1. The self-isolation blues.
    A question to all those panic buying ice cream, tinned fruit and raspberry sauce; are you planning to self isolate for a month of sundaes?

  2. Source: One Nation Email

    China Must Be Held Accountable for the Coronavirus Pandemic

    A statement from One Nation leader Senator Pauline Hanson

    When the dust settles, Australia needs to seriously rethink how we progress the growth of our nation and pay back what will most likely be one trillion dollars of debt.

    The Coronavirus may well be the excuse for a global economic collapse. Still, the course set by consecutive governments and a host of Prime Ministers here in Australia left us teetering on the verge of a recession years ago.

    Coronavirus is the final push that has seen Australian markets crash and panic buying begin in our supermarkets.

    Australia’s economy is seriously exposed as a result of an over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing and dependence on China as a destination for our food and mineral exports.

    Now, it is safe to say, the lives of our citizens are exposed.

    By refusing to take the appropriate steps required to prevent the evolution and spread of COVID19 Coronavirus, China has put all human life, worldwide at risk.

    China must be called out and any attempts to silence, attack or criticise people for referring to COVID19 as a “Chinese virus” should be pushed back on.

    Why use the term China as an identifyer? In recent history, it has been common to refer to viruses with reference to the area it originated.

    For example, MERS stands for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. To the best of our knowledge, no one was ever called a racist for saying MERS.

    And the Spanish Flu was responsible for a global pandemic in 1918, but no one ever suggested the Spanish Flu was an offensive name.

    Attempts to hide the fact that COVID19 originated in China, blatantly shields China from criticism it rightfully deserves.

    The threat of virus transmission from animals to humans caused by Chinese wet markets has been well documented for decades.

    Despite this, China has wilfully continued to allow unhygienic practices, known to promote the evolution and spread of deadly diseases and put the lives of billions at risk.

    Australia has sanctions against many foreign nations for engaging in activities deemed to be inappropriate. North Korea, Iran, Libya, Syria, Zimbabwe, Russia, and Myanmar are just a few we have taken autonomous sanctions against, let alone those UNSC sanctions we also support.

    If a country were actively pursuing the development of a biological weapon that had all the same characteristics of the COVID19 Coronavirus, then Australia would likely consider sanctions against this nation.

    The same would be true if a nation were knowingly allowing private groups or companies to develop biological weapons of this nature.

    As a result of this latest pandemic, it can no longer be argued that China, by allowing deadly viruses to evolve and transmit within its borders, is unaware of the dangers they are subjecting the rest of the world to.

    Australia should, therefore, consider intense action against a country actively developing, or assisting in the development of deadly biological viruses.

    Protect Australia From Foreign Vultures

    One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has written to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, insisting he immediately suspends sale approvals by the Foreign Investment Review Board and safeguards Australians against a mass foreign buy-up.

    The Queensland Senator said, “Australian’s want rapid safeguards put in place to ensure China and other opportunistic countries are prevented from buying up housing stock, prime agricultural land, businesses, and corporations affected by this Chinese virus.”

    “Our unemployment numbers are surging, our stocks have been knee-capped, housing prices are set to fall, and our dollar is weakened which places Australia in the most vulnerable position we have seen for a very long time.

    “I won’t tolerate China or any other country coming in here and buying Australia up for a song, leaving our people without a say.”

    In a speech at the Western Hotel on August 14, 2018, FIRB Chair David Irvine AO stated an estimated total volume of critical infrastructure transactions of more than $40bn had been approved in just three years.

    Senator Hanson said, “Between 2007/08 and 2017/18, the Foreign Investment Review Board reviewed almost 12,000 applications and rejected just five.”

    “How can the FIRB, which has one permanent employee and a handful of part-time members, give proper consideration to the sale of so many Australian assets? It can’t and therefore they aren’t looking out for the best interest of all Australians and need to be stopped.

    “The faith the Liberal and Labor parties have placed in globalisation has been shown up as a failure off the back of this pandemic.

    “What’s happening right now in this country and right across the globe should be a wakeup call to all politicians, stop allowing the sell-off of our industries and manufacturing and start investing in ourselves. Water, manufacturing, industry, agriculture, and jobs for Australians.”

    China Gutted Australian Medical Supplies Ahead of Virus Outbreak

    If you know anyone in denial about the threat, Chinese influence poses to Australia asks them to take a look at this final story.

    A whistle-blower working for a Chinese Government-backed property group has revealed that their company received orders from the Government to stop normal duties and direct all their attention towards “sourcing bulk supplies of surgical masks, thermometers, antibacterial wipes, hand sanitisers, gloves and Panadol for shipping.

    These actions show a total lack of regard for the safety and wellbeing of Australian citizens and prove what many have said for decades, these companies are acting not in the best interests of Australia but in the interests of their home nation of communist China.

    It is time the Australian Government stop bowing down to political correctness and wealthy Chinese billionaires and starts taking the steps required to protect Australians from our over-reliance on a Chinese Government that has no respect or regard for the future of our nation.

    • Stop it! Josh is already facing complications from excessive hand-wringing/
      (weekend link)

          • Markus: no one can accuse them of being racists so they are less reluctant to make criticisms about Mainland Chinese.

        • I believe some ethnic Chinese have run as PHON candidates. Clive Hamilton mentions in Silent Invasion that PHON has attracted support from some anti-CCP ethnic Chinese in Australia.

      • Her party has Asian candidates:

        21 Dec 2016

        Shan Ju Lin said she believed she and the party would get the votes of “good Asians” in the Queensland election, slated for 2018, as they too feared the rising influence of the Chinese Government in Australia.


        candidate Tshung Chang has rejected claims that his party leader is r…..

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        But the virus is spread by an American soldier in China,so it is actually the USA who should be paying!!

        Blame it on China is how our political elites deflect responsibility for their stupidity, like our universities helping Chinese students bypassing the quarantine, or allowing the F1 teams to arrive from Italy, or letting everyone off the Ruby Princess without isolation. The list goes on.

    • The CCP wants you to call it the Chinese Virus too so it can be used in their propoganda ‘the western world hates us blah blah blah’. It was the CCP who covered this virus up so call it the CCP Virus.

    • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

      China should be held accountable – and so should the Chinese who support China’s stance:


      How much of the above spitting did actually go on throughout America? The explosion in cases in the US is simply amazing. Either China is lying about their true casualty and infection rate or the someone helped move the virus around the US.

      If the media were honest and reported issues like this, then it would factually do a great disservice to their role and beliefs in promoting their Multicultural ideology.

      By failing to report it they actually do a great disservice to the existing society, which the media justify as helping to build this fantasy around some great big utopic future society. A society that has never existed because it can never exist – its existence as a fantasy depends on ignoring all the obvious differences wrapped up in human behaviours and beliefs.

      Instead we have to suffer through scenes like those spitters, or the indignity of seeing our social capital plundered in our collective time of need, like we saw in yesterday’s article:

      A second Chinese property company based in Sydney flew more than 80 tonnes of medical supplies on a corporate jet to Wuhan in late February, at the time coronavirus was devastating the regional city.

      “The chartered plane with 90 tons (82 tonnes) of medical supplies, including 100,000 most needed protective coveralls and 900,000 pairs of medical gloves, has successfully departed from Sydney and arrived in Wuhan on 24 Feb,” Risland Australia posted on its LinkedIn page.


      It is this pursuit of multicultural perfection, and remaining silent on all the ways it undermines the trust our existing way of life depends on, that risks destroying perfectly good existing societies that were more than capable of meeting the needs of its people.

      One weakness of ‘civic nationalism’ is that, in the absence of a unified culture, population, morality, or set of civilizational aspirations, the only thing that’s really holding the country together is the economy. These are the policies that our elected ‘leaders’, and the business elites they answer to, are pursuing in the EZFKA.

      The do this through the inversion of our notions of identity and self, that are wrapped up to our attachment to our family, our friends and our lands i.e. our national identity and saying that this this identity is WRONG – this is pure inversion of the truth, family, friends and the care of our land is a primary GOOD, and inversion of good is evil.

      • “Either China is lying about their true casualty and infection rate or the someone helped move the virus around the US.”

        Beijing only has 572 cases in a city with a population nearing that of Australia. They’re just heaps good at anti-virusing. I think they must use McAfee on every citizen.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        A north of Northcote type told me the Spread in Australia was caused by white privilege. Cripes what tripe.

    • Jumping jack flash

      “Australia needs to seriously rethink how we progress the growth of our nation and pay back what will most likely be one trillion dollars of debt”

      You mean on top of the two trillion we already need to pay back for just our mortgages?

      A trillion is a doddle.

      To get to the debt growth rate we need to experience 2006 level prosperity again, we needed something like an extra 5 trillion debt dollars by 2030.

      Hey wait a minute… Maybe all this virus stimulus is to grow the debt because people surely were not taking on nearly enough debt to grow it at the required rate.

    • Yep.

      Central Banks are

      1. Buying the assets of rich people to support their value

      2. Supplying rich people with cheap and easy credit to help them buy poor people’s assets.

      But keep in mind that a lot Australian economic commentators were BEGGING the RBA to do exactly that.

      Just as they did after the GFC.

      So very predictable.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        I must confess that what I think should unfold from here is a complete movement away from those ‘rich people’ (whom I completely agree are the major beneficiaries of QE as we have hitherto known it).

        The reason they have been the beneficiaries of other QE exercises is that it has been considered that keeping those asset values up keeps the overall financial system/economy more stable. I think that has been completely turned on its head by coronavirus (or Covid19 or Wuhan flu or whatever anyone wants to call it).

        This flu has completely trashed the mainstreet economy of everyday working people – both the supply and demand sides of the equation. In our case those people are also spectacularly leveraged. For that reason alone I think any real QE from here (especially by the RBA) needs to be pitched much much lower. Sure they need to backstop banks and make sure capital markets are liquid enough to facilitate lending, but the far bigger priority obviously needs to be supporting working people – both getting them back to work, and bringing about enough confidence to resume some sort of spending (though I do think the days of jet skis and surround sound home cinemas are probably passed). The reason I say this is because there are a very very large number of people (I have good contacts inside Centrelink who have related a large number of people were profoundly disappointed to have spent hours in the queue to get some sort of support only to discover they they got diddly squat if their partner or spouse was ostensibly bringing in more than 48k and a number of exasperated epithets about their ability to service mortgages were heard) who have confronted the enormity of the exact types of circumstances we on the boards at Macrobusiness have been chewing over for a decade – how serviceable are some of the loans out there? what is the ‘real’ value of the underlying asset of some of those loans out there?.particularly in the right here right now sense of the moment.

        So for mine I think there is a definite case for fueling the punterariat – primarily, not as an afterthought – with whatever form of quantitative easing comes from here.

        I reckon the LNP government needs to come right out and state that their first priority is to keep ordinary working Australians in their homes. That means either covering mortgage payments for an awful lot of people. My first though would be a ‘guarantee’ of some sort for all families on a 2019 income of less than 100k, with children, on housing values of less than 500k, and a similar guarantee for renters on similar household incomes up to a particular value [maybe circa $2500 per month] – but the rental guarantee with some sort of audit to ensure that investment property owners arent milking the guarantee by renting to their own families and that there is genuity with the rental agreement.

        Beyond that I would be looking at a taxation offset for those remaining in work – paid for by eliminating negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions – which would make up to 15kper annum, for those with mortgages less than 400k (and thats just a guesstimate) and maybe 20-25k for mortgages from 400k to 800k on the main family residence (where the mortgagors have no other mortgages or properties in their names and are not the beneficiaries of any SMSF’s Trusts or corporate entities which have assets, or borrowings to fund assets). The mortgage payments would be tax deductable to that (or about that) point.

        That, for mine, would underpin an awful lot of household consumption, and at least keep the economic collapse – which I think we are only at the leading edge of – weatherable. One of the other things I find myself wondering is whether the sudden shift to home work for a lot of people, and home schooling for a lot of kids, might be sufficient to sell the substance of the concept to Australian business, and/or see far more future education planned for and delivered at home. That would obviously change an awful lot of home dynamics – place a far greater fiscal value on ‘home work’ (washing cleaning etc) – but any significant change may also lead to some sort of greater investment in home office type facilities, which I would argue could actually come under the headline ‘microeconomic reform’ if you think that a very large number of abodes are pretty much unused during the day. I woukld be thinking something like this could also be given a kick along by some sort of ‘Home work and Education facilities’ tax concession (again only up to a certain value, in homes with a household income up to a certain value, in real estate worth less than about 750k).

        The real longer term problem is going to be finding some way of sustaining/cultivating higher paying gigs. I dont think even ScoMo or the current batch of imbeciles in government (or the current batch of imbeciles in opposition) is seriously going to suggest to the 10% unemployment we are heading to ‘Opportunities abound in Aged Care or Picking Fruit’ – unless they want to be tarred and feathered, or removed by outright popular revolt (Though we can be sure that something as slow moving and preternaturally impervious to Australian common decency as the man who grabs the hand and slaps the back of those who have asked not to shake his hand would think this over for some time). So what they are going to need is …..

        Real Skills (as opposed to faux skills like property speculation, internet selling etc) – which leads me to the view that we take some Vice Chancellors out behind the shelter shed and shoot them (those who were funding foreign students to stay in third nations to get around Australian quarantine laws) and replace them with those who can quickly organise mass (probably mainly home based, online) courses revolving around future skills (start with IT and coding, and work up to more complex things). and .

        Capital investment in sites and systems of the type which will potentially deploy those skills to sustain either domestic needs (recognising that much of the world will find itself in the same boat and lots of protection will be the short term response for many nations) or import competing/exporting. That will be complete anathema to the Liberal National mindset – who have explicitly and deliberately removed fixed investment over the course of a generation on the basis that fixed capital investment is where Unions tend to do best – so my guess is that this will need to be an ALP thing. For mine that is the only way that sustainability of the current debt/jobs dynamic of Australia can be even contemplated.

        I suppose the other alternative may be to simply tell the punters ‘We are all part of the global market now, and good luck, you are on your own’ but even now Australian labour and costs are above other parts of the world where quite skilled people can be got quite cheaply, and I would be thinking that the pitchforks and bondage and discipline gear wouldnt be far away at that point.

        Thats in addition to taking equity stakes in major businesses, paying circa 80% of wages and normalising the dole to a level where life is remotely sustainable.

        It isnt going to be cheap from here.

        I write the above as an early morning cogitation rather than what i think ‘will’ happen (Our government will grind the punterariat into the turf if they think they can) in the interests of some discussion.

        • PalimpsestMEMBER

          Pleased to see your qualification of mortgage support conditions. For some years now I’ve been intrigued by friends where the couple have (up until a month ago) millions and millions worth of property, two good incomes able to support an expensive overseas trip each year, but at one stage their taxable income (thanks to negative gearing) was low enough to qualify them for concessions like discounted bus fares. Yes bus fares – one of them, whenever possible took the bus to work (I think he’s driving now to ensure isolation). Apart from their annual splurge and property, they live reasonably frugally. Although I wish them well on a personal level, from a policy viewpoint I don’t want to see people in their position overly rescued. One problem, however, how on earth can they sell any of those properties now. We need to keep them, as people, alive, but not keep the portfolio alive.

          • And that is a big part of what is inherently wrong with how successive governments have shaped this once, somewhat great nation. Real estate is considered the main game …….. to the detriment of innovation (no not a new form of down-light) for real industry/business. This real estate obsession makes my blood boil even more than Smirko’s smirk….. and that’s saying something.

          • Locus of ControlMEMBER

            100% agree Dingwall. I despair at soooo much money ploughed into unproductive real estate. Once upon a time this country was known for innovation and a can-do attitude. Then one day, maybe 30 years ago, we all (broadly speaking) stopped innovating and started ‘playing house’, aided and abetted by government house price positive policy. Culture became all about ‘how to buy a house’, ‘how to spruce your house’, ‘how to obtain more houses than the one you need’.

            I have several friends who never fail to inject comment about their ‘investment property’ into every interaction and how they scrimped and saved to buy it and how they’re so adult for being responsible and investing and how they’re so benevolent for indulging the whims of their awful tenants (yes, you can hang a picture, sigh) and how expensive the upkeep is (I had to replace the hot water system the other day, it was $2000, so expensive). I have friends who have been damn near bankrupted by unblinkingly ascribing to this rampant ideology (I have previously regaled the story of a friend with no income, on Centrelink payments, few assets comprising one tiny one bed apartment who’s lost out big-time because she bought a second Darwin property right at the peak of the market in 2014 – I reckon her net worth is about negative $5000 and the Financial Ombudsman agreed she shouldn’t have been given the loan and made it principal repayments only – she still struggles financially and emotionally with this decision).

            You know what really would impress me: if you had the intelligence, the creativity, the drive and the perseverance to conceive and develop anything on this list, that arguably made life better in a real and tangible way, rather than just capitalising (literally) on a basic need (shelter): https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/history-culture/2010/06/australian-inventions-that-changed-the-world/

            And what’s noticeable about this list? Aside from biotech stuff, next to nothing features from the past thirty years – most of this stuff was developed in the 80s at the latest.

          • St JacquesMEMBER

            Yeah Locus, those infestors are risk takers and innovators par excellence. Rolled gold bull dust. btw did you use to post in Fairfax? I recall reading your posts a long time ago. Cheers.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Assistance for people only with houses under $750k!?
          So no assistance at all for Citizens who live in the Capital cities of our country.
          That about 80 % of the population is it not!?

          • Those people in the “big smoke” want their cake and eat it too. They are the ones egging on the values, sales, turnover, etc and get soooo excited when is goes up up up. Stuff ’em I say …… let’s get the value of our housing back to reasonable values. ie where $750k is considered a lot.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            I’d be inclined to agree with setting a limit, and I kind of buy the idea that limit may differ in Sydney and possibly Melbourne – but the key thing would (for mine) be that support should only go to those with an identifiable need, and not as an add on perquisite for those who have done nicely out of the system up to now.

            Thats why I framed it as as applying to those below a certain level of household incomes with mortgages (to a particular value) on real estate to a certain value and where the asset houses the one and only domicile of a family

            Sorry for the delayed reply. I was outa bed early (work alarm) and had little to do but partake of a fine Mt Sabine late seasonal Camberwell Carrot, which has necessitated an additional 3 hours rest.

        • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

          I agree with your premise helping people keep their jobs and homes but we fundamentally need to reset this economy or it is coconuts ahead. I think a UBI offers the best chance of keeping some people in place during the crisis and will be the least expensive to administer and doesn’t require a complex set of rules to administer which lets face it the public sector can’t do. Then let the cards play out for the financial RE economy (ie let it die), land/house prices reset to something much, much lower and we attempt to create a productive economy than can compete with the rest of the world. This would involve capital controls stopping foreign countries buying up our assets, investing in manufacturing (3D printing is here), and industry policy choosing a number of sectors for Australia to attempt a world class leader in life sciences/aged care (would be one for my coin) – not bedpan care but advanced research into ageing diseases/products with ongoing trials at specialised centres, batteries/electric vehicles (they are simpler to make compared to ICEs) and will fix our reliance on overseas oil (national security issue), VR technology, aqua culture etc I’d choose half a dozen sectors. This would be supported by massive government investment/tax breaks into those sectors. If I was dictator I would tear up the ridiculous oil and gas policies that give Aus nothing and keep 25% of revenue for the nation’s sovereign reserve and put in place large land taxes such that land/RE speculation dies forever. As a cynic I of course know none of this will happen.

          • GunnamattaMEMBER

            Nothing there I disagree with……

            Looks to me as we have a joint Diogenes the Cynic – Ermington Plumbing – Palimpset – Gunnamatta Senate ticket for the next election!


            We need this

          • +1 to all above, but @Gunna working from home as nice as it can be. I am going a bit crazy, I need to get out and about. I just don’t feel like sitting behind a PC all day coding. I am not sure why, I used to be able to sit at a computer all day, but now I need to move around. I think there is a mental health toll of being tethered to machines all day.

          • Locus of ControlMEMBER

            Gavin, I’m working from home at the moment too and finding productivity has slumped big-time. Problem is I’m surrounded by home jobs in addition to work jobs. At home, I need to wipe a surface or clean the shower recess or mop the floors or weed the garden. I actually like going into the office because there, none of these jobs exist – it’s purely work. As a consequence, I’m having to spring clean as much as I can this weekend, in an effort to be more productive from Monday.

          • Hate to tell you this but the great reset ain’t gunna happen. These clowns think the economy can mothballed for some indefinite period like a factory to be revived by some sort of economic defibrillation. Good luck with that.

        • Universities need to split their research from their teaching arms.

          Research centres can sell their developing knowledge to the teaching arm. Research insight gets sold as curriculum content.

          No more bloated foreign student numbers to then fund research centres.

          No more bad educators that keep on lecturing on account of pulling in good research funding and journal output. In the teaching arm, you would employ quality educators, ideally with ‘real world’ experience. Again, curriculum would be informed from research finding from associated (but still independent of) research centres, as well as ‘real world’ developments.

          Radical thinking I know.

        • And there I was thinking that the only just Aussie recovery model subjected scum landlords to a bit of medieval justice involving Pliers and a Blowtorch, if only in the metaphoric sense (as in burned property portfolios)
          We all need to remember that there can be no real economic recovery until we’re none with the retribution thing.

        • Did everyone know that a single person can effectively have $260K in the bank and still get the dole? This is under the normal asset testing.

          Seems ludicrous. We could perhaps afford a lift in Newstart and Pensions if we didn’t have people on Newstart who have substantial savings to draw on.

          • @Swampy I forgot about the change from newstart to jobseeker, all my old info is outdated. However, the new rules are you can have combined assets below $263k for homeowners/$463k for scum renters and still qualify for the dole. Obviously the assets would only allow for a certain portion to be cash in the bank and I haven’t found that info yet. From memory the old system applied a waiting period for liquid assets above $5k, you had to live off that til the waiting period ended and if still unemployed then received payment. Mutual obligations still applied during this waiting period and they sure did try and push you into any job the could before having to give you a cent of dole.

            edit: cheers adam


          • Jumping jack flash

            Unless it has changed I tried to get the dole in 2008 when the company I worked for went bust and I had over 20K in the bank at the time.
            Missus was not working due to our son being born months prior.
            I could not get the dole. I think the cash limit was 7000 or maybe 15000. I can’t remember now, but 20K was too much in any case.

            Maybe you’re thinking of super?

        • Peachy Bagholder

          funny that those who live by the abrahamic mindset, want punishment for the poor @ all times. But when they are poor, expect a saviour…. we don’t deserve any of the things proposed… neither did Ireland.

        • Peachy Bagholder

          plus, if you help these animals, in any way, what-so-ever. They will BUY MOAR HOUSES!

        • This would effectively punish those who are on a good income but have been sitting on the sidelines and renting for years as they consider house prices are inflated and so they haven’t taken on a mega mortgage

          • adelaide_economistMEMBER

            What’s new though? I can’t think of a policy that hasn’t directly or indirectly punished anyone who exercised that most beloved central bank virtue, ‘prudence’. Just the interest I’ve lost in the last 5 years alone (comparing non-emergency rates to what we’ve got today) alone would equal a small house deposit. But hey, we’re ‘privileged’ because we didn’t make outlandish commitments in case a black swan event, personal or community, happened. How silly of us to think something, somewhere, might go wrong? I mean, as if!

            I’m intending to buy (despite signing a new lease recently) in the next six months because I’d rather take the chance of losing $150k on a house valuation than lose at least that much (and possibly much more) in overt and covert taxation of my savings (and my income) through the RBA ‘looking through’ all kinds of inevitable real-world inflation as both monetary and fiscal policy goes full experimental.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        1. Buying the assets of rich people to support their value

        2. Supplying rich people with cheap and easy credit to help them buy poor people’s assets.

        QE and ‘rescue packages’ aren’t there to save us, but to ensure our continued enslavement – they are designed to hold the status quo in place.

        “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system.

        – Andrew Mellon 1929″

        Since 1987 and the dawning of the reign of our Neo-Elite and their neo-economics, the rottenness has NEVER, not once, been purged from out of the system.

        • Purging the rottenness is something that happens in nature all the time – right now a pandemic is having a crack.

          In 2008 a credit bust attempted to purge the economy and the financial system of all the rot but the Fed stopped the purge in its tracks and said: ‘No, the rot must all stay’.

          Vested interests.

          The Kung Flu though might just succeed where the 2008 credit bust failed.

          • If you purge existing vested interests, they will merely be replaced by another set of vested interests.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            If you purge existing vested interests, they will merely be replaced by another set of vested interests.

            That may be the case, but for one glorious moment the system will be free – and that moment, is something that should be cherished and goal sought for every truly free man.

            Corruption and abuse will always accrete to the corridors of power, like barnacles covering a ship’s hull – but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be afraid of the hard work involved in occasionally scrubbing it clean.

            “A little rebellion now and then is a good thing”

            – Thomas Jefferson

        • “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system”

          Guess what, that’s what they did in Russia in October of 1917 – and they indeed did purge the existing rottenness out of the system. It didn’t exactly work out very well though and most people soon regretted the outcome (if only they were allowed to express their opinions).

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            Mellon was speaking of purging the rottenness out of the system in 1929, the Bolsheviks came to power in Russia in 1917 as a result of the 1st World War, which preceded the Great Depression by 12 years.

            The inevitable counter will then obviously be, “But Hitler came to power after they tried to purge the rottenness from the system and look how that worked out”

            Hitler actually came to power as a direct function of the Allies and their neo-Bolshevik elites being determined to “Make Germany Pay” i.e. honour the war time debts that the victors imposed on the Germans (not to mention the Cultural war that was unleashed on traditional Germans via the debaucherous and evil Wiemar Republic).

            The attempted preservation of unreasonable debts and obligations is one of the key core factors always woven into the sort of international strife that generally leads to Wars and Civil Wars.

            It wasn’t purging debt from the system that brought Hitler to power, but the efforts to preserve it.

          • Unlike the October revolution, Hitler did not purge the existing banks or industrial heavyweights – hardly a “purge the rottenness out of the system”

            The Bolsheviks defaulted on all the existing debts incurred by the Romanovs. I cannot find any other example that came closer to a “purge the rottenness out of the system”.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            The Bolsheviks defaulted on all the existing debts incurred by the Romanovs. I cannot find any other example that came closer to a “purge the rottenness out of the system”.

            I wouldn’t disagree with that statement – I am surprised that you offered it as a retort given it was fully in accordance with what I’d already stated “The attempted preservation of unreasonable debts and obligations is one of the key core factors always woven into the sort of international strife that generally leads to Wars and Civil Wars.” The Russian Revolution would count as a civil war would it not?

            Hitler purged some of the rottenness from the Germany’s financial system, in terms of the WW1 reparations debts, he also reformed the German financial system of by doing away with private banks and nationalising the Reichsbank and the issuing houses, which lend on interest, so the state controlled the issuance of credit/money (as pfh007 so often calls for). From memory I think this formed one of Hitler’s major points in his initial 25 point plan:

            “Break down the thralldom of interest” is our war cry.(7) What do we mean by thralldom of interest? The landowner is under this thralldom, who has to raise loans to finance his farming operations, loans at such high interest as almost to eat up the results of his labor, or who is forced to make debts and to drag the mortgages after him like so much weight of lead.”

            The results was mainly that Private Bankers stopped making the outsized economic profits that they earn through private credit creation. True he didn’t abolish the titans of industry, but he did manage to completely turn around the German economy from being the complete basket case of Europe, to the power house of Europe with near full employment and price stability towards the end of the 1930s, nearly unique throughout the Western world at the time, until of course military overreach eventually brought about his downfall…. and even then it took nearly the combined efforts of every other nation in the world to defeat him.

          • My original point on this thread was that purging the existing rottenness out of the system will have unintended bad consequences (like what happened to Russia after the October revolution). This is essentially the same point I made to Dominic above. Basically, you cannot leave a vacuum to the void you have created by purging the existing rottenness.

            “one glorious moment”, as you put it above, will indeed be a very short (instanteneous) moment before a vacuum will be filled with something.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            Again I won’t argue with you that there is the possibility of unintended consequences, but that is the risk each and every one of us takes every time we step out of our cave. If we want to be free, then we must accept that unintended consequences may follow.

            But you cannot use that fear of unintended consequences to abrogate the responsibility we owe to our own freedoms and that of our children, such as being prepared to allow an existing corrupt system to fail. It is the rejection of the status quo, from which elites always prosper, that has driven our society forward.

            If you nihilistically surrender the pursuit of freedom, even only as an idolised goal that may only last ‘a single moment’, because it ‘might’ be replaced with something just as bad or worse, then you are immediately surrendering your freedom to our current elites and their pursuit of the status quo – i.e. the use of our social capital in order to assist them perpetuate their power… as Darth Sideous I imagine you would understand.

          • I don’t think the problem lies with what you described. In fact, I think we are where we are today because most Strayan voters have been happy with the path we have taken.

            I have been pointing out over the years:
            – that rising land prices are bad for the economy, bad for the society and bad for the wealth creation, because the costs of doing business will rise and said costs will be passed onto the pricing of the final products
            – that the CGT exempt status of the PPOR destroys distorts the asset allocation of the Strayan households and, together with the decades of living-beyond-one’s-means indulgence, the great majority of Strayan productive assets have ended up in foreign hands
            – that the backbone of a contemporary civilization is an industrial economy which renewables have no chance of supporting
            – that the nuclear power is the obvious choice for the future electricity supply
            – that falling local currency will make everyone poorer
            – that a chronically CAD challenged nation printing fiats will result in losing an ever greater fraction of its assets to foreign interests
            – that introducing negative gearing will boost the coffers of the state governments while doing negligible damage to the federal coffers and therefore abolishing it will certainly not help the government revenue-wise

            One only needs to be able to read two or three steps ahead – as opposed to 10 or 20 steps – to understand these simple points and I find the great majority of the Strayan population are utterly incapable of doing that. Not only that, many will simply switch off once they learn doing the right things mean living within one’s means because they somehow *deserve* to enjoy what they somehow have been able to (without consequences up until today).

          • PS

            The issue at hand is not a problem that can be solved by a 20th century–style (or an 18th century–style) revolution. I am certain of it. The problem has to do with what I would call intellectual honesty, and no amounts of barricades or pitchforks can make a difference, let alone solve the problem.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            The issue at hand is not a problem that can be solved by a 20th century–style (or an 18th century–style) revolution.

            Who said anything about manning the baracades? All I advocated for was allowing a corrupt monetary system to fail, and debts that serve no purpose other than enslavement to be repudiated.

            “Purging the rottenness from the system, by allowing debt based economic models to fail” would leave most 20th century, let alone 18th century, revolutionaries distinctly underwhelmed as far as a revolutionary call.

            I’ll accept and acknowledge all the other points you mention in the post above, there is far more that I agree with than don’t.

          • Glad to know that we are largely on the same page. I agree that what is required to “purge the rottenness from the system, by allowing debt based economic models to fail” would leave most 20th century, let alone 18th century, revolutionaries distinctly underwhelmed as far as a revolutionary call, because it will require a fundamental shift inside the brain of each individual.

            It will indeed be revolutionary at an unprecedented level. Perhaps that is how a 21st ceuntury revolution will look like. In my view, it will have to start from gaining intellectual honesty – it won’t be easy but I don’t see any way around it.

      • Sad but true. And the QE bailouts will be on rinse and repeat until there is a shift away from the economic ideology that got us here.

        I’m starting to think the only way out of this doom loop is a debt jubilee.

        It would need to be capped at a threshold e.g. no household with net assets over a X gets compensated. Take the average debt of each household and pay it out to every household under the threshold, either as a direct debt cancelation or a cash handout to compensate those without debt. The payments/cancelations would need to be trickled out over time in order to manage inflation. The debt jubilee is combined with macro prudential rules that prevent household debt increasing faster than wage growth.

        Say goodbye to the debt Ponzi and start letting crappy companies go bankrupt and nationalize the systemically important failures outright.

      • I want to understand what you are saying in more simple terms. May you elaborate please. . I am here to learn. How exactly does QE maintain asset prices etc? Thanks.

    • Be nice if the mentioned that the privately owned entity, Blackrock has been tasked as the asset manager to bailout the bailout of the stranded asset debt zombies.

      Best hurry up and put trash onto the CB’s balance sheet before the ratings agencies wake up and downgrade it.

      • Yet this is the – holy free market – axiom that the private sector is always the ***experts*** in everything, especially if it cost more in fees – self evident – as price dictates value.

        Not to worry tho’ BlackRocks server farm will save the day as it has incorporated the “rational agent model[tm]” in its Algo, no need to worrie about human agency fiddling around with decisions about distribution vectors when divine code from above makes rational decisions for us …. Humans that don’t understand or fail to genuflect before the superior wisdom from above will be cast away or punished until they submit … it was written … the code …

        • Skip, you spotted a “free market”? I’d love to know where, so don’t be shy.

          Is spotted a unicorn the other day but they’re much less rare.

          • I guess you missed the preponderance of freedom and liberty medals, along with Nobel prizes, and incessant PR marketing about spreading free markets and democracy for the last 50 odd year Dominic.

            I guess you’ll get that from some people that can’t understand ***Free Markets*** is an oxymoron right out of the “box” – you see markets are a subset to laws created by Government[.] Hence I do agree with your perspective about Unicorns, you’ll get that with Utopian narratives served in Bernays sauce for the unwashed by Elites. How its twisted and turned over the years is another story in Mister Toads Wild Ride.

    • https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/03/press-release-2020-03-27/

      Canadough has dropped rates to 0.25%
      Acquiring Government of Canada securities in the secondary market with a minimum of $5B per week. Across the yield curve.

      Commercial Paper Purchase Program announced.
      For the next 12 months, the Bank will conduct primary and secondary market purchases of CP, including asset-backed CP, issued by Canadian firms, municipalities and provincial agencies with an outstanding CP program. The Bank will purchase CP with a tenor of up to 3 months of sufficiently high quality, broadly equivalent to a minimum short-term credit rating of R-1 (high/mid/low).

      The Bank will use an agent to undertake these transactions. The agent, the start date of the program and additional details will be announced next week.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        Hey Ma dust off the mantel will ya we have an “agent” coming to buy some china plates. He’s also looking for a special asset-backed CP. Well i’ll have news for him when he knocks. Finally don’t worry Ma I just wont give them away

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      Save a click- content below:
      WASHINGTON—In order to alleviate the heavy damage the crucial financial sector is facing in the midst of the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak, the United States Congress announced Tuesday that they would be allocating $2 trillion in order to bail out the struggling bailout industry. “The bailout industry is on the brink of failure, so in order to prevent a full-on catastrophe, we are setting aside $2 trillion in order to bail it out,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), adding that the business of giving of massive sums of money to corporations so they can cover their losses is at the very bedrock of the U.S. economic system, and without assistance, the entire bailout industry as we know it could collapse, which could lead to another Great Depression. “During a crisis like this, the bailout industry is often hit the hardest, so we are taking immediate action, as our economy is deeply dependent on the bailout system; if bailouts can’t function, then America can’t function. A cash injection is absolutely necessary to make sure these failing businesses can inject cash into failing businesses.” At press time, Congress had signed a bill to allocate funds to bail out their bailout of the bailout industry.

      • I presume he is working from home, so first drink is lunch, pissed by 6 and passed out on couch by 9 🙂

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          It is true that I love to drink beer and get pissed.
          But its something I like to do with company. I almost never have a beer by meself and on the rare occasions that I have its only one or two.
          Its an odd thing to do on your own in my view.
          Yet in company ill happily knock down a dozen beers or more.
          This lock down/Social distancing sux

          • Yeh, nah. Got stuck into a bottle of red last night after the family went to bed – paying for it today mind you. Plugged in the head phones, fired up the tunes with a couple of rounds of You Tube, had a great time. I spent many years living on my own because people in general sh1t me, so giving the sauce a nudge every now and then didn’t bother me.

    • billygoatMEMBER

      @Dingwall don’t buy into media manipulation. Photographer probably went to one of 40 backpacker hostels within a km of the ‘social distancing reminder sign’ offering $20 bucks to first 15 pasty skinned brits willing to don boardshorts & bikinis for photo shoot . Bet they all walked away with digital copy they can frame when they land in Uk next week. Yes planes still flying

      • I understand media manipulation well lol….. they are almost as bad as the rats with the gold teeth.
        The photo taken by a professional photographer living in Melbourne. I will admit the tend to frame things well……………..

    • The youngsters definitely don’t get it.

      On which note, it sounds like we go into full lockdown next week – a mate of mine in Govt just gave the heads up. His exact words were: get your shopping done on Saturday, Sunday could be carnage.

        • I’m not a spirits drinker — but I think a month of lockdown could change all that 😉

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            It is an acquired taste. However as with all skills and talents difficult to master…

            The secret, is lots and lots of practice. 🍸🍸🍸

          • Try some Glenmorangie! About as smooth as Scotch gets at a reasonable price point (on sale for $65ish )

          • @Robert
            I have to say I’m rather partial to a dram or three of Glenmorangie. Usually late in the evening after cards and umpteen beers.

      • I’m Ireland it looks like this…
        March 27

        People urged not to leave their homes
        The Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, and Minister for Health, Simon Harris, have issued strict guidelines for people to stay at home from midnight tonight (Friday).
        The rules are to STAY AT HOME. The only times you can leave are:

        to travel to or from work if you are providing an essential service

        to shop for food

        to collect medical prescriptions and medical supplies and attend medical appointments

        to carry out vital services like caring (including family carers)

        for brief individual exercise – within 2 kilometres of your house. (You can bring children but must keep 2 metres away from others for social distancing)

        for farming purposes

        You should not hold any private or public functions and this includes family functions for family who don’t live in the same house.
        All community centres will close. All public transport will be restricted to those carrying out essential travel for the reasons outlined above.
        All non-essential businesses will close.
        Shielding or coccooning of older and vulnerable people will come into place where they should not leave the house and arrange for others check on them and to bring shopping and medicines.
        Except for the reasons above; you should not travel more than 2 kilometres from your home

      • I received a call from a colleague in finance industry who apparently has a contact in cabinet. Apparently, cabinet understands that they fvcked up majorly with the initial response and for the last several days are looking at fixing this with lockdown to Sydney and Melbourne entirely with use of military/police. They will blockade all roads into the cities and no one will be able to enter or leave unless essential worker. They would have enacted this plan already but logistically wasn’t possible for them to do so. They hope to surprise everyone with this lockdown in order to make sure they don’t have everyone flee the cities Wuhan style beforehand.

        He didn’t know if this lockdown will be extended to other cities or locations, logistically we don’t have the resources to enforce it. So perhaps lockdown will be nationwide, but only actually enforced in the cities. He also mentioned that if there were suburbs that contained high numbers of infected, they would lockdown these individually as well. All non-essential service will be stopped completely after this, universities included. No travel to visit family will be allowed.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Except for the bit about cabinet coming to the understanding that it had fvcked up majorly.

            Still, first time for everything.

        • In China during SARS local communities took it upon themselves to set up roadblocks and barricades to keep outsiders out. We’ve seen the makings of that already in some Australian communities but in a full lock-down I suspect it will become the norm. Any local coppers will keep an eye on things to make sure everything stays civil but will not take action against the locals.

      • Iron HorseMEMBER

        Have been told similar by someone who is close to AFP, More stringent lock down provisions will be in place within 1 to 2 weeks.
        Interesting how the stuff on the radio is now all hypothetical ‘…what will this look like, what will that look like if it comes in?’ Pathetic, they are subconsciously preparing us with out telling us what is about to happen so when it happens it isn’t such a shock. Where are our leaders??

        • Hopefully keeping their mouth shut if its scomo.
          Tells everyone to prepare for 2 weeks locked up and when inevitable run on supermarkets happens tells everyone to stop hoarding.
          Tells everyone that we have to social distance, but kids ABSOLUTELY HAVE to go to school. Then is surprised and upset when people don’t take the requirement for social distancing seriously.
          I’m sure there are others.

    • Ian ArunMEMBER

      Will sell one or two property across the country and based on that index would jump 2%….price to the moon…australian property is like teflon….

    • Thinking about the mid-week forecast re the 20% house price drop (can’t recall who, Oliver or one of those types).

      Shouldn’t the drop be somewhat in proportion to the drop in household incomes? My view is household incomes will take a much bigger hit than 20%, with seemingly few unaffected in one way or another….and many severley affected. Same applies to rental income for landlords & slumlords.

      I know house prices long ago detached from wages, but that was in the world of free flowing credit and free flowing cash laden Chinamen…and government support can only help dire household balance sheets so much.

      Right now, I think many homeowners should be hoping for a drop of ONLY 20%.

      • Well given they went up 20% since the election (after dropping 20%). I think they should at least drop by that much. I know officially it was 10% but that’s in aggregate. Areas I was looking at prices jumped 20-30%. Houses would be listed for $800k and sell for $1.1m often or higher.

    • Well, identifying him as “Chinese” is race hatred. Pure bigotry. And in 2020 Straya, that’s worse than rape.

    • Mr Hu expressed, through a Mandarin interpreter, that he was upset the media had reported details of his case after he was unsuccessful in obtaining a suppression order late last year.

      Only the rich can muzzle the media in Australia.

    • Should have forken done it 4 weeks ago. We would’ve already been a third of the way through and with a lot less dead than now…

      What the fick would I know?

    • it is probably the perfect timing for full lockout.

      the number of new cases is tapering in NSW and lockout can speed up the drop to a grinding halt.

      • Although very late the mandatory quarantine will help as well as lockdown enforcement

        They will need to keep borders closed and travel ban on once they get control of the numbers probably

        • Indeed.
          As the numbers begin to drop the need to ramp up prophylactic measures is more important to prevent bounce.

          I think borders should open though… with mandatory prepaid 3 weeks at “hotel of ScotyMorisonia” before release into the wilderness.

    • Jumping jack flash

      April lockdown for certain.
      Supermarkets have started hiring. Coles put on additional 15K staff. Wollies 20K. Much more will be required over the coming weeks and into lockdown.

      All those recently unemployed will need to work somewhere soon. If they can’t it will make the figures look bad for the stimulus effort!

  3. so …
    most of countries are close to the peak spread (number of new cases will peak soon in most of Europe, Asia and here)
    US will go for a bit more (a week or so)
    In around 3 weeks it will be obvious that this way of infection is over in most of the world (most of Asia, Americas, Europe, here),
    the final tally of 100 000 or 200 000 dead despite looking huge is actually quite small. It will increase world mortality rate for these 3 months by only few %. Over the year by a percent or two. Normally around 3 million die in a quarter across the world and many of the people who died from corona would die this year anyway (in fact doctors struggle to declare cause of death for many who died corona positive because they were so sick prior to infection, terminal stages of cancers, post hearth attack or stroke conditions, multiple and uncontrolled chronic diseases, very old age,…).
    these are results of atypical 2009 flu pandemic

    CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
    Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.

    more importantly

    Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age. This differs greatly from typical seasonal influenza epidemics, during which about 70 percent to 90 percent of deaths are estimated to occur in people 65 years and older.

    Post pandemic testing will discover that infection started much earlier (October 2019 or even before), that large percentage of population was infected and had no symptoms, that mortality rate was much closer – close to that of 2009 flu and most importantly that epidemic ended not so much because of harsh government measures but because of natural reasons (infecting large percentage of population and weakening of the virus itself).

    What made this virus worse than 2009 flu in some locations is speed of spread that overwhelmed the healthcare system in some local communities with very sick or old population.

    we’ll talk later about the government responses, economy, lifestyles

    • ApproachingZero

      Uh oh, here’s the “it’s just the flu brah. It only killed x people which is less than y” guy who doesn’t understand how percentages work.

      Meanwhile, why do you think it’s going to go away? Because of social isolation? What do you expect to happen when everyone goes back to work and school? Do you think the virus decides to stop infecting people?

      • three comments:
        – I never said it was “just a flu”, I just compared the likely consequences with those of 2009 flu (2009 flue was not an ordinary seasonal flu)
        – I said that pandemic will end not so much because of social distancing but more so because of usual natural reasons (virus weakening and large percentage of population getting infected).
        – when everyone gets back to work/school rate of people getting will not go up much because of these same reasons

        BTW. what do you think would be a death rate of 2009 flu if only confirmed cases were used to estimate number of infected?
        Also, flus are not so benign as you think, read a bit about Hong Kong 1968 flu or Asian flu of 1956
        corona even by the worst predictions is not as bad

          • it’s just going on in front of our eyes (just stop listen to MSM fear spreading news and check what science says)
            also, check what history can teach us about similar situations

            we are not special, our time is not special, and everything we see today happened before in a similar situation

          • ApproachingZero

            @doctorx – what we know from previous pandemics like the Spanish Flu that went away in 1918 and came back with a vengeance in 1919, and Bubonic Plague that returned many times over a century, is that they kept coming back and killed tens of millions people. Clearly the annual flu and cold, including coronavirus colds, don’t disappear.

            Comparing the annual flu which kills 0.1% and COVID-19 which appears to be killing 4.5% is disingenuous.

          • @ApproachingZero
            That’s why I said “this way of infection is over”
            for the next wave likely we’ll have a vaccine plus we’ll know what percentage of population actually got infected and gained immunity

            if we calculate flu mortality based on number of confirmed flu cases, mortality would be around 80% or 90%
            we did test more now but not nearly enough to make any claims about mortality among general population. This is even more the case for corona because of large expected percentage of asymptomatic cases

            BTW. you would be surprised how number of deaths due to seasonal flu gets even calculated. It’s basically done by estimating the difference in mortality rate between summer and winder season. Confidence rate is so poor: plus minus 30%

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            What I would like to see is a chart of how many people die from all causes, car accidents, drugs & alcohol, natural deaths, accidents, poverty/starvation , all diseases not including Covid, etc etc etc. Then put Corona in the chart to compare. Also put in the chart the amount of people who may die from Corona inspired povety.
            The hype about shark attack far outweighs the actual danger notwithstanding the potential of CV may have been greatly mitigated by by the seemingly overreaction of the prevention of spread.
            Engineering et al minds adhere to facts not emotion and I think you have a valid point to dissect the real from the imagined.

          • @boomengineering
            so far in last three months 12k died while being positive on coronavirus (many would die in these three months even if they were not positive)
            Normally around 1 million people die every month in the world

            due to uneven spread this may not be fair to compare
            so let’s say Italy, the worst hit country:
            on average around 50000 people die ever month in Italy (a bit more over the winter months), so far 9000 died after being tested positive. According to information, quite a few of people dying while positive were also very old and very sick so many would have died anyway this month or in next few months. Once this is over it’s expected there will be a reduction in deaths (many were just brought forward by corona)

          • ApproachingZero

            @doctorx – regardless, you’re ignoring what doctors on the ground are telling you. Do you honestly believe that doctors in Italy can’t tell the difference between a normal hospital case load and what’s currently happening? Time to take your tinfoil hat off and think rationally.

          • @ApproachingZero
            No I’m not ignoring that
            What I said is some areas are hard hit in a short period of time and all these cases appear to be hit via mass gathering source (political rallies, soccer games, …).
            Doctors in Bergamo, for example, did see large and sudden rise of people needing health care but doctors in some other towns didn’t.
            The same is often the case with flu just doesn’t get into news as much:
            the 2017-2018 flu epidemic was not bad but it overwhelmed hospitals in some of the most developed parts of the world

          • Dr X hasn’t done his research. Serology shows that 80% of flu cases are asymptomatic (mostly due to immunity), so far a couple of studies have shown 50% asymptomatic spread for coronavirus. A couple of years ago we had a bad flu season with 1000 deaths and 67k lab confirmed cases, For a case fatality rate of 1.4%, but a mortality rate at least 10 times lower. At 0.14%.
            Now for coronavirus we have an estimate case fatality rate of 2%, that increase to 5% without treatment. Once you account for the 50% asymptomatic cases you have a mortality rate of 1-2.5%, or 20 times worse than a severe seasonal flu with a population with zero immunity. The most recent flu season had only 340 fatalities. Now consider the fact that 3000 people died in the last 24 hours despite the fact that only 1 in 10,000 have contracted the disease so far. Italy has about twice the population of Aus and is about to hit 10K deaths in a single month. Probably be 20-30K deaths there next month. All we can hope for here is that sunshine and Vegemite is protective. (Vit D and Beta-glucans probably are)

          • Interesting discussion DX.

            In 18 months we’ll get a clearer picture, and if anti-body testing becomes a thing, we will have a much better idea of the extent of infection. It seems one thing has been clear so far, this thing moves fast and leaves quite the wake.

          • @ Robert
            Once again, you are relying on some data but not on other. Your fatality rate is based on chinese data but not German for example which is well below 1%
            Also those studies about asymptomatic cases are quite limited. There is large number of cases of mild cases that don’t qualify for testing in most of countries.
            So beside your calculations it’s quite possible that fatality rate among general population is less than 1% and that 80% or 90% are asymptomatic or so mild not to be tested. In that case mortality goes down to 0.1%

            Once again, you are assuming that number of confirmed cases is good estimate of number of positively tested people. Also not all positively tested have to be infected.

            Italy has 2.5 times the population but 3.5 times deaths a year (600k) (due to old population)
            10k deaths in a month is 20% increase on 50k normaly which is not as catastrophic as it may seem.

        • Dont remember seeing rows of coffins lined out in the hundreds in 2009?? 969 dead last night in Italy..town halls full of coffins…maybe you jest doctorx..

          • 2000 normally die in Italy every day … coffins don’t line as much because country is usually not in lock down
            Lombardy is hit hard because it happened so suddenly there and they have so many old and sick people

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Correct, what I have said all along, (see above). The only factor worth considering is how much the preventive measures and potential mutations alleviation have decreased the final figure. Then compare that with and without the calculated possible projected figures with all world deaths. If it turns out comparable to Spanish Flu then the world has done the right thing but if the numbers don’t stack up then we have been taken for suckers by the oligarchy and more will die from the ensuing economic depression than CV.

        • “– I said that pandemic will end not so much because of social distancing but more so because of usual natural reasons (virus weakening and large percentage of population getting infected).”

          This (large percentage of population getting infected) is obviously not correct as there are only a few hot spots, if we were any where near a large proportion of the population being infected infectious cases/deaths would be spread out almost everywhere but this is not even the case in Sydney let alone more broadly.

        • It has to have been spreading here in the US longer than we are letting on. Hence the hesitation to test within the US. Do not think for a moment that the US actually bungled the test kits. No one could be that stupid.

          We have several friends in Alabama and Florida who caught some virus way back in January, that is taking months to recover from. Have never had anything like it. It was so severe they went to hospital, were tested and confirmed negative for the flu. Hospital has told them they don’t know what it is, tested them for all kinds of things but apparently can’t figure it out. They suspected coronavirus but when they call the testing hotline, are told they cannot be tested because they don’t meet the criteria (have not travelled overseas recently, have not had close contact with someone who has returned from overseas). They even work with someone who has been confirmed positive with coronavirus and still cannot get tested even though still sick (severe cough, fevers, exhaustion etc.)

          • Jumping jack flash

            There are other really bad flus about. I caught one in 2017. Was out for a week. Took another 3 weeks to recover.

            At peak I was close to taking myself in to hospital but didnt. Swear I got mild meningitis from it. Never had a headache that bad before in my life.

            Say I catch that one again, which wouldn’t actually be possible, but just say for argument’s sake, i wouldn’t be eligible for testing but I’d still be pretty sick.

        • The Washington old age facility saw 30% of their clients die in a month.
          Try googling confirmation bias.

    • I think your first assertion that most countries are close to peak spread is wrong. The US was 40k earlier in the week. Now over 100k. You think US will get a handle on this in a week? I like your optimism. And that you seem to take a different stance to others on the site. Aside from that I think you could be way off…

      • I excluded USA specifically from my statement
        Also USA has many more cases (and deaths)
        just due to poor testing they are not reported
        so USA is not that much behind

        • Doctor I take that point. You did leave the US out. Clearly the death rate is important but I think the majority of people’s fearful behaviour had less to do than them thinking they are going to die and more to do with becoming ill. People do not like to be ill obviously, no matter what it is. So looking at the curve….if the US in a week or so flattens at 500-600k and thats with lockdowns, what happens when people return to work? Unless the virus weakens as I take can happen (don’t know enough but have read) surely you get another spike with the subsequent risk of ICU beds being over run again and ultimately another round of distancing measures. Or not. At the same time I can’t see international borders being opened up any time soon (tourism, education etc. etc. ) particularly if developing countries continue to have issues flattening their curves. Locally, are people all of a sudden going to go back to concerts, sporting stadiums, restaurants in the same way in the short term. My guess some would but many will not. Lost income, balance sheets of the individual blown out somewhat. I suppose what I’m saying is that you may very well be right about peak infections but the grinding impact of the virus to my mind (known to be wrong on a daily basis) for the forseeable future looks fairly bleak, perhaps not apocalyptic but bleak nonetheless. Perhaps government bailouts will be enough to cover. Or not. Maybe assumptions about border controls are wrong. Not trying to make you wrong at this point just some of my thoughts as I read the morning papers…

          • that’s why I left comments about economic and other fallouts aside
            You are right that recovery will not go smoothly but governments overreacting is one of the main reasons

    • Yep you are correct

      Growth rate in cases has peaked in most countries
      Real mortality will be very low once IgG proves the true infection rate
      No evidence that ventilation makes large differences to survival

      It was partly a natural hysteria, and partly a manufactured hysteria to provide a fig leaf for bailouts

      Not all deliberate, but once one country is strict with restrictions then the others have to follow suit or they look irresponsible
      And it turned into an escalating cycle

      Even on this website look at all the hysterical screaming about it
      “Close the schools FFS!” even with no basis in logic
      Full on derangement
      “Thomas Pueyo” some third rate tech “entrepreneur” became their guru of epidemiology

      I’m just waiting for all the dust to settle, then I hope for some apologies for getting called every name under the sun

      Still I made a bit of money

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        No evidence? Then why did the death rate shoot up in everywhere once they run out of ventilators to treat the patients? Are you going to say it is just a coincidence?

        • Yes?

          It’s a rapidly spreading infection so it makes sense that the number of deaths also rapidly increases (with a constant lag) , that results in a peak in death just after the peak in cases
          the same shape curve is just shifted leftwards

          The mortality of ventilated patients was 80-97%

          Doctors are not stupid people – they understand from other diseases that the very worst affected patients don’t survive even on ventilation
          They also make moral decisions regularly about not wasting resources on the very sickest

          So they will have given ventilators to the sickest patients WITH a chance of surviving

          And most of them died anyway

          • mortality are on ventilators is over 95% for those over 70 and/or with bad preconditions
            ventilators barely just delay the deaths

          • BigDuke6MEMBER

            Not sure if you’ll get this but I can confirm that you seem to be right. I’m a senior doc near the front line and it looks like it’s all a bit of a fizzer. Our ICUs are almost empty. They should be a full a week from now. Unlikely. a managed take down of the economy indeed.

          • BigDuke – Deputy CMO on a presser this afternoon said only 10 (If I heard correctly) in ICU. He was quite confident ICUs would not be over-run come April 10.

          • BigDuke- You haven’t’ been unplugging people early have you. The impression I have is that under normal circumstances ICU beds in this country where always at capacity. They based it on the “at time economy”.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Coming, you’re not alone, said the same since day one and copped a blast as well. See above.

        • Watching this hysteria unfold in front of me makes me now question the magnitude of the effect of AGW

          I am not smart enough to understand the mechanisms and mathematics, and don’t have enough time to review the data

          But if “experts”, politicians and the media were misrepresenting or misunderstanding the virus , then it’s entirely possible they are doing the same for AGW

          It’s also something you can’t question without being demonised

          In any case, either the virus response was a massive overreaction and overreach, or the response to the AGW is a massive under reaction and underreach

          And soon governments will have to explain themselves one way or the other

          • What I learned in my life is that people should always be on alert on corruption every time government is either ignoring some issue of overreacting on it

          • You looking to do some sort of vast hate mail survey?
            Just an aside – the suppression of information on Hydrochloroquine and then the widespread resistance by self-important medical organisations in various countries supports your tinfoil hat thinking. Every supervisory organisation in every country is announcing their own individual research into efficacy. No nest feathering going on?
            Meanwhile people die unnecessarily and these pricks aren’t called to account. If I’m dying of this bloody thing – am I worried abut detailed 12 month long research into efficacy

          • Goldstandard1MEMBER

            We want you to be crystal clear about your opinion so you too can be held to account.

            You think lock downs and social distancing are an over reaction to this disease

            You believe Covid 19 is no worse than various other flu’s in the last 100 years

            I can tell you from within the health care system, there are plans being made that has this at red alerts levels heading into Winter

            You believe property prices will more or less be fine despite mass unemployment and businesses going bust all over the place?

            You say a lot of words but you conclusions are terrible. Good luck to you.

            All who seek judgement, shall be indeed judged themselves………

          • desmodromicMEMBER

            flawse, why do you assume a conspiracy? “Hydroxychloroquine is classified as an anti-malarial drug. It is similar to chloroquine (Aralen) and is useful in treating several forms of malaria as well as lupus erythematosus and rheumatoid arthritis. Its mechanism of action is unknown”. The last sentence is relevant. Clive Palmer reckons it is good to go but that gives me little confidence. If it acts as a prophylactic then there are less risky ways to slow the virus. If it is a treatment how do you produce millions of doses in the time needed? Better to focus on a vaccine.

        • In some ways I also agree. I am almost certain I had it as I had the classic symptoms which passed after 1 week. My wife had fever weak but no cough and bad bloods which also passed in a week plus I have young kids which also would have been exposed. This was in Jan before the hysteria. So I think many have been exposed but never tested so if you were able to include all numbers the mortality rate might look similar to the flu. But still this is still no ordinary flu because for the smokers, met syndrome, etc they are getting hit very hard even though some are young in 20s or 30s because I know a few who can’t recover after 1+ months. Still come to work mind you splattering on everyone else as if to hope that we all suffer equally…

        • Are you agreeing with me?

          The graph you posted shows the growth rate in every country except USA is falling
          The curves are flattening

          • Each of those countries where the curve is flattening has enforced some measure of lockdown and/or large scale testing tracking of individuals. Would you say that the flattening of the curve is in response to measures or that these measures have not affected the flattening of the curve at all?

            I wonder this, because if cases are peaking and it is because of these measures, doesn’t it mean that these measures are justified? and if justified means that this virus is indeed not just the flu?

            Is there a country out there (that has extensive enough data that we can trust) that hasn’t taken any measures and the curve is flattening?

          • How many of the countries with flattening curves have implemented lockdowns? How is the US that seems to be avoiding lockdowns going?

          • Italy’s growth rate kept climbing well after they started lockdown
            Same for every other country

            So you don’t have any real strong evidence of causation

            If you want to see how it looks without lockdown check Africa I guess

          • Well you would expect the growth to last potentially 3 weeks after lockdown because of the asymptomatic symptoms, then of course you will have further infection among households so that might push the time frame out a little more. I haven’t looked into it but a few days ago there were reports that infections were decreasing in Lombardy which is the first state in Italy to go into lockdown about 3 weeks ago. This would potentially mean that the lockdowns were required, of course due to lack of testing we will not know for a long time how many have actually been infected.

            Africa is of course no good due to lack of testing data, which is also a fundamental problem even in other countries. Due to this lack of data is it best to let it go rampant or instead take the cautious approach and go for lockdowns, until we are able to get an accurate picture with accurate data.

          • No. The data doesn’t support that generalization. In some countries but no widely to back that as a valid generalization. Like the German and Italian media coverage posted to your contention earlier that Germany was flattening; new cases came through in German media at a high level when English language media were saying Germany had it controlled. Next week may be clearer on the outlook.


        “Growth rate has peaked in most countries”

        Could you post links for this? The data i’m looking at reads differently

          • You are not taking into account the ability of countries to test their citizens correctly. Most had limited testing kits and many still do. You’d expect a spike in the growth of cases as testing improves.
            You are calling it over as it’s just getting started.
            Totally misinformed.


      Doc. We all need bit of hopium.

      But the maths don’t stack up. Nothing to Indicate in the US data (or overall world data) that this thing isn’t still exponential.

      So the CDC reckons HN1N killed 12000 odd. Within 10 days this will be killing 2500 US citizens a DAY. That’s back of the envelope calculations (assumes new dead cases double every 4/5 days).

      As I said, there’s nothing to indicate a peak, yet. I know they’ve got a few partial shutdowns going on over there. But they still haven’t got to the 8 to 10 staying home needed to stop the exponential growth.

      The crisis has hardly begun.

      • normal rise of uncontrolled epidemic is always exponential until it’s not anymore
        the sharp turn always happens very quickly even if no human control is being done
        the only way to make it grow but not exponentially is via strict controls (e.g. Korea)

        have a look into a typical flu chart (from 2008/9)
        why it suddenly stops growing and starts quick decline?
        It just runs it course, enough people get it, and the virus gets weaker

        scientists were right about the shape but not so about the peak numbers, the reason for that is reliance on confirmed (test positive) cases to estimate total number of cases
        e.g. if 90% of people are asymptomatic or have weak symptoms as some suggest the actual number of infected is 10 times higher (almost 5 million), but if that percentage is 95% than there are already 10 million infected, if that number is 99% than we have 50 million infected
        also if this lasts since October or earlier as some suggest, than tens of millions may already have immunity and the virus went through quite a few generations so it may already be quite weak

        • The mainstream media has been dying for some time, massive layoffs, restructuring etc – the Trump Russiagate was crap, the Impeachment was crap – Corona is their last hope – pushing this fear is keeping them in business and they know it.

          People are sheep, they do what the TV tells them and if you go against that you are a heretic!

          People are more religious than ever before with the new religion.


        • The genetic evidence shows it evolved from a single case in November. They also screened flu surveillance blood samples in a chinese province and showed there was no evidence of any cases until jan. Iceland has been screening the general populace as well as contacts and has found an asymptomatic infection rate of 50%, Flu on the other hand has 80% asymptomatic cases based on serology studies. At the moment we are seeing 1.5% CFR in South Korea where the screening has been extensive and a large outbreak amongst young cult members. Germany is similar with most people infected being in a young and health age bracket. Something like 40 members of the Iranian ruling elite have died in just over a month.
          The scary thing is this is just getting started. 25 million HIV infected in Africa, that ain’t going to be good.

          • +x^n (CFR = case fatality rate).

            I see the median age of confirmed cases in Australia is 49 years whereas the median age of all Australians is 37 age so does that suggest that more younger people are asymptomatic and so are not being tested or that older people are simply more prone to catch it (could just mean that lots of really really old people have been affected and that is skewing that figure)?

            Robert, when you say that this pandemic is just getting started do you mean in places like sub saharan africa and /or in Australia?

          • once again, you are comparing % of asymptomatic cases of flu based on serology studies with PCR tests for coronavirus
            PCR tests.
            one is tests that shows how many people had flu, and the other is how many have coronavirus at the moment (time during which a person remains infectious is quite unknown especially for people without symptoms – some argue that can be as short as a day which means that someone who had asymptomatic case would test negative a day or couple days after he/she got it).
            this can make estimates about % of asymptomatic cases based on PCR almost meaningless

    • Am with doc on this. “Just the flu” killed ~670K in 2019, or 1835 per day. Covid death toll 26K & rising, if u take Jan 1 as start date, that works out at 292 per day so far.
      We are at peak Covid in Europe now, past its peak in China, SK etc.
      As doc says, Covid killing mostly the vulnerable – old, sick. Once this happens death rate will fall unless it mutates into more virulent strain attacking the young & healthy.
      Leaving conspiracies aside, Covid like the GFC will result in another wealth transfer to the rich.


        True enuff on the wealth transfer. 2 trillion printed is helping to bail out even cruise ship industry and private jet companies. Some kid’s gonna have to pay for that one day unless they crash they system.

      • Am not encouraging people to flout the social distancing & other rules. These have been put in place for good reason. One death is one death too many.
        Just arguing that at a whole of population level, Covid at the moment is no doomsday event.

        • that definitely, and if we look from a survivalist point of view lockdowns pushed civilization closer to the collapse that the virus itself (not that either got us close to the collapse but just saying)

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          Maybe not a doomsday event, but…
          it motivated me to get my vege garden into top working order.

      • Yes, but there were no lockdowns or mass testing/tracking for the flu. Lets say this virus kills less than the flu, is that because of the lockdowns and other measures? or did those measures have no effect and would it have killed less than the flu anyway? What I’m getting at is where is the data? unless we have the ability to observe an alternative universe that just let this thing go rampant, how would we know if this was just the flu?

        Imagine in 1938, Hitler was not allowed to take the Sudetenland and if he then took it by force and the war was declared right then followed by an allied invasion of Germany ending WW2 before it started. Would we be saying this was an overreaction because all Hitler wanted to do was reunite the German people. Or would we know that we just saved 60 million lives at the expense of maybe a million.

        So, who would be correct in that instance the “doomers” who said that if we didn’t take those actions 60 million would be dead? Or would the correct people be the “its just the flu” crowd because Hitler was only going to unite the German people and that’s it, yet we now have a million dead which is a disaster?

        • time will tell us if lock downs were overreaction
          I think it was an overreaction and lockdowns will have very little to do with the final infection and death numbers

          and where is the data that coronavirus mortality rate is 1% or 4%
          so same people say how large majority or infected are asymptomatic and than they say that mortality is 3% by dividing number of dead who tested positive with total number of people tested positive
          the first number is an overestimation, especially when taken into account that most dead were old and very sick prior to infection. The second number is so underestimated because estimates are saying that up to 90% of people have no symptoms or very mild symptoms that don’t qualify them for testing.

          Once again, if similar methodology is used to estimate flu mortality (dead tested positive/total tested positive) flu mortality would be 50% or even 80% (just because very few get tested)

          • Agreed. Lockdowns etc will change the shape of the curve but sooner or later Covid will find its victims, if the infection rate is 80+% as some claim. But by flattening the curve & shifting it to the right, we are buying time for development of potential effective drug treatments, vaccine etc.
            Until then it is survival of the fittest unfortunately. Only reason u and I are here is because our ancestors at some point survived their own pandemics.

          • We wouldn’t need lockdowns if everyone was wearing face masks and kept their distance. Singapore and S Korea show it can be contained with the right attitude and equipment. Preventing mass gatherings is essential though.

          • My point is that without accurate data and hindsight we won’t know, or may never know which option was best. At the moment the option is, do we take a cautious approach just in case, or take the gamble of fvck it let’s see what happens. This is about lives, so I guess who here is willing to gamble with lives with inaccurate data.

            @Robert. I think the Singapore approach is a fantastic idea. Too bad though that our rulers are corrupt, incompetent, sociopathic, and stupid, meaning that it is too late for that now and even if not too late they still wouldn’t do it. And, the mask thing is great along with distancing etc, too bad though we are not a unverified people with shared culture, values, and history, etc, so we won’t do any of that either.

    • Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus NextStrain. The strains are also mapped, and you can filter by location, country, study author, etc. (I should credit the reader who sent me this link, but I can’t. Raise your hand in comments!)

      Fantastic tool indeed. Also perhaps good to flag the caveat posted by the authors on NextStrain:

      Although the genetic relationships among sampled viruses are quite clear, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding estimates of transmission dates and in reconstruction of geographic spread. Please be aware that specific inferred transmission patterns are only a hypothesis.

      Also check their twitter thread: https://twitter.com/nextstrain to get a flavour of the power of open data.

      As with orthodox economics beware the bad maths and physics which some minds imbibe as a true reflection of reality, Mandelbrot was all over this, yet some persist due to path dependency.

    • Doxtor X and others, I certainly hope people do not read your comments and believe that they are OK to go and flaunt the social distancing rules. My 37 year old sister with lung issues would prefer not to die or be at further risk due to medical services being over run.

      I am sure she (her children and family) and many people in similar situations take comfort in your statistics that the worlds death rate wont change to much and may even dip after the pandemic passes.

      • I understand your concerns but there are much better ways to protect your sister and people like her than lock down the country and the world. The way world reacted is quite opposite, the effort was put into protecting low risk majority of people from being infected with scarifying those at risk.
        Do you remember those stories about flattening the curve? What does flattening the curve does? it aims to get most of population infected while helping those with moderate symptoms to get hospital care while making no much difference to critical cases (mortality rate of people on ventilators is 95% or even higher even in places where hospitals are not overrun yet)

        as per social distancing, I’m not against them at all, I would prefer to see some permanently in place

    • Doc, for an amateur epidemiologist you sure make a lot of assertions that clearly show you don’t know what you’re talking about..

    • Council controlled camp sites have been closed up here.

      Still, we all get to vote for a selection of power seeking sociopaths today. Queenslanders are special

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Those holiday parks with onsite ‘vans and cabins have been shut down with barely a manager onsite. There’s a place to go and squat if you’re careful and quiet.

        • I guess the issue was communal facilities. Now they get to stay in hotels on the govt tab. If they don’t do MMT, we’re never going to be able to pay back bond holders from taxes. They need to get real and look at what is happening overseas, the risk of everything rests with our govts and what they do now.

    • No. Rural doctors have warned of the risk from city refugees overloading sparse rural medical infrastructure.

      • Some of the rural towns are hostile to city folk atm.
        With the advent of cheap Chinese machinery we have the ability to dig lots of holes in cane paddocks.

        • haha hope you have a good record of where the previous holes were, don’t want to double dip!

  4. migtronixMEMBER

    US has over 100k cases…

    “15 cases going to zero very soon. One day its like a miracle”

    • That sort of competence and insight is why Trump businesses have been such an amazing success.
      Reality has and will continue to mug Trump.

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    What is the Morrison Gov doing while we are distracted with wuflu and there is no Parliament?

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Planning their next holiday overseas when all this blows over, and catching up with “mates” for that game they play with them?

    • I dread to think what sh1tfvckery these chunts were up to. Probably explains their woeful response efforts, too distracted designing bailout packages for their mates.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Hey bloke, lots more elites with the bug but they are ALL low or no symptoms. This must be doing your head in for sure. Just poor plebs cop it bad.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER


        There’s a theory out there that the elites are getting it from the prostitutes they like to inhabit. Are prossies cleaner than the average pleb so WuFlu doses are far less virulent?

        • You blew my mind with the mental picture of Reusa inhabiting a pro – too early in the morning.

          • It’s like a golfer going to the driving range…….he uses it to get his timing, technique and rhythm spot on.

  6. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    “the speed with which the virus is moving is blindsiding everyone” Canberra Times.

    Only to media and politicians. Every single other person knew what was coming, and said shut everything down early.

    LNP, Labor and media. The absolute worst people you could have running Australia, are running Australia.

    • Yeah, reports were coming out in January indicating that the coronavirus had a really high reproduction number. A pleb like me was able to access that information and grasp that we were dealing with a highly contagious virus that spreads like wild fire.

      Journalists and politicians were “blindsided” due to their own ignorance and arrogance.

    • Debt upon debt upon debt — debt for as far as the eye can see …

      If ‘debt doesn’t matter’, then why bother accruing more of it?

      • All money is debt – go read ‘5000 years of Debt’ or you can go the long route and read a few thousand hours of natural history and anthropology from a multidisciplinary back drop.

        Just a head up Dominic … we don’t pay back the past in stuff …

        • No skip, the stuff we call ‘money’ today is debt — or ‘credit’, if you like.

          Money is something of value – something that retains its value through time – like, er, gold.

          “Money is gold, and nothing else.” John Pierrepoint Morgan, testifying before Congress, December 1912.

          You arguing?

          • So your using a well know oligarchical banker as some sort of argument to authority Domenic …. lol.

            I said anthropological evidence backed by natural history and not some twisted biased opinion of some self serving ignorant elite.

            PS. square that with Lloyd Craig Blankfein today bootlicker … lmmao … next thing you know your going to complain about QE … chortle …

        • I don’t think lying in testimony to Congress is generally encouraged.

          Ignorance is common but mendaciousness not so much

          • What joke … considering say Smedly vs Greenspan [core libertarian member] and a cornucopia of lies to date …

            Hay Dominic guess what … he was selling his book because it advanced his interests after him and his got high on he control frauds … a safe haven … not unlike tax haven …

  7. I’ve had to go out a few times and notice many people have a zombie-like appearance,: lots of awkward physical distancing, and some edgy driving trending to road rage. This last one is the real concern, domestic violence increasing too. Careful out there.

    • The family stresses are enormous. The art of parenting is lost because for the last 20 years society’s been on the debt treadmill. Both parents work, kids are offloaded at every opportunity including after school sports which are often used as cheap babysitting and parents had their regular separate getaways with their ‘besties’ to get away from it all. Suddenly the treadmill stopped, the babysitting’s gone, as is the travel pill and its time to stand up and be responsible.

      I won’t even start on retail therapy (curtailed), job loss and the spectre of the home ATM being taken away. And then there’s this health thing.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Already watching that happen through family that a week ago were filthy we wouldn’t go to a kid’s birthday party and are now locked up with tears. At least they’ve admitted they were naive, although they were still sending their permanently snuffly kid to daycare as recently as Wednesday. That life you described is theirs to a tee. It has been and will be a very rude awakening.

      • MountainGuinMEMBER

        Make sure you all are taking home security seriously. 2 of my siblings had their homes broken into this week, one in regional nsw, one in Sydney. The regional nsw case had the whole street hit.

      • Truedat. As a cricket and AFL parent, not in a month of Sundays would there be 11 or 12 parents at a cricket match or 22 parents at an AFL game. Be flat out being the same 4 or 5 parents every week of which I was one. Oh and have a guess which parents would whinge if their kid didn’t get enough game time or not selected in the run on team etc?

      • If you change debt tread mill to pay to play or skin in the game every individual is responsible for themselves in the neoliberal Market place [TINA – no society] where winnars are worshiped and losers are defective [poverty is a mental disorder] I concur jimbo ….

    • Yep. Trying to explain to my kids to be extra careful when out and about — crossing roads etc. People are not at their best at the moment — plenty driving home having just been fired / stood down etc.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Boomer had an amusing tanty at me the other day signalling me to slow down (I wasn’t speeding and never do) in his street.

        Chucked a boomer wobbly, which wasn’t improved when I flipped him off.

        I do the opposite of what boomers say out of principal.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        The absolute last thing Australia needs is a more girlie attitude to what’s being done to us.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        …because a world filled with screeching, animus filled VanBanHams will be so more peaceful.

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      What a perfect way to take over the world. Stop the men being men.

      Pretty much what’s happening via wokeness anyway.

      • In the future, wars will be led by women: sarcastic comments, cold shoulders and cattiness will abound with the occasional dragging off the hair along with savage high pitch screaming.

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        Gotta say, with all the bad things that want to attack those who enjoy relations none has ever torn apart your balls! This sh1t is nasty.

  8. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    Morrison issues crystal clear guidance: “Stay at home except for the following 500 different things” The Chaser

  9. Golly its like a case of the crabs going through the barracks for the mugs …. sigh … good times …

    For the elite tho it must be like everyone showing up at the bespoke STD clinic on the same day … eh … Rusea …

  10. The true spirit of contemporary ANZAC.

    As the coronavirus pandemic destroys jobs across Australia, New Zealanders who have lived and worked here for years are finding they have no access to welfare…There are an estimated 650,000 New Zealanders living and working in Australia …. many in casual or hospitality jobs either shut down or under threat due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
    Those who have lost work and are facing financial hardship due to Covid-19 are ineligible for the JobSeeker allowance.


    • It’s not right Janet. There are some things that are so basic, so innately right that they shouldn’t even require thought. From the bottom of my heart I apologise. I can’t fathom how our government is so heartless under the best of circumstances these days, let alone in times like these (esp when it’s my understanding certain forms of social security have been extended to some temporary migrants, though I’m sure that is quite restrictive and not much).

    • Im from NZ. I don’t know why someone would live in a country for 10+ years and not become a citizen. I became an Aus citizen as early as possible. Not to obtain benefits, but to be a proper member of the country I live in. NZ and Aus both allow dual citizenship, there isn’t many excuses for not obtaining it. Most likely down to laziness.

      If there are people from NZ that are here who don’t yet qualify for citizenship, then they should be able obtain whatever is extended to temp visa holders.

      It’s also a bit rich to moan about the benefits available to Aussie’s in NZ, given there is less than 20k over there, and 600k kiwis here.

      • I feel there is a lot of “I want the best of both worlds”………. If there is a bilateral arrangement perhaps NZ picks up the bill for the kiwi’s here and we’ll pick up the bill for Aussies in NZ.

        • Jacinda has reached out to Scomo to include kiwis in the payment. It’s obviously a hell of a lot cheaper for her to say you pay the kiwis in Aus and we will pay the Aussies in NZ. If they are to foot the bill for kiwis here it’ll be huge.

          From my experiences, Aussies in NZ would be more likely to be in higher paying and more stable work than the kiwis and Pacific islanders who come here.

          Not a great situation to be in, but if you’ve been here for years and didn’t become a citizen, that’s on you. If you’ve been here for a short while, you’ve most likely consumed more than you’ve contributed to the system.

        • Of course it is. Why does anyone leave their country of birth to work overseas, A lot of times it’s to go and earn their fortune then come back home with the ‘gold’. I remember when every aussie in IT was moving to the UK and working their to earn their fortune. They had no allegiance to the UK, just there to make money and come back home with it. No difference to most of the people I see working in Australia with dual citizenship. Just here to rape and pillage and then leave when it suits them.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Why does anyone leave their country of birth to work overseas,

            The same thing that drove humanity to sail boats past the sight of land ?

      • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

        Serious question: how long does it take to become a NZ citizen if you are a foreigner who has relocated there ?.

        • Where again did the yank oligarchs build bunkers disguised as holiday homes, during the first gulf war again and how does that relate to corvid19 transmission considering the data to date.

    • How many Australian house’s do they collectively own? Meanwhile Australian citizens can’t afford a house in there own country.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        Back in the 1970’s I was living in NZ and met an Aussie chick who had 4 kids and was collecting Aussie single parents benefit, her mum had ccess to her Aussie bank acc and sent the money to her.
        She was also getting the NZ single parents benefit as well as having the NZ govt. build her a house at Wainui beach north of Gisborne. Oh yeah, and the boy friend lived around the corner.
        Having a go, getting a go.

        500th comment, beat that.

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      650,000 of a NZ pop of 4.8m or so. That’s a large % of their total population, presumably the more able-bodied, working age ones. That’s a lot of people that really should be building an economy and society back home in New Zealand, rather than Philipine-type export of people who can send remittances home. I never appreciated those numbers before. A lot to be said for Trump’s anti-globalist, nationalistic, border-controlled swing back to having proper countries, where everyone who is able contributes to the common good in building the society and wears the consequences together of the outcomes.

      • Totally disproportionate numbers relative to the number of aussies over there. Maybe we should introduce a tariff?

        • It’s just an extension of people moving from the country to the capital cities. NZ just doesn’t have big enough cities

    • I really don’t care if you are from NZ or India or wherever, I do not see why Australian citizens should pay to keep non-citizens when we will probably lose up to 2 millions jobs here. It’s time to start looking after Aussies. I know that may seem harsh but I am sick of everyone sticking their hand out. We will be paying off the cost of this virus for ever as it is.
      I am quite happy for aussies overseas to get nothing too. Quite happy for government to pay for repatriation of foreigners and aussies from overseas.


    Anti-virus measures are too late to stop needless sickness and economic pain … OPINION Steve Elers … Stuff New Zealand


    Paulson … Pavletich comment on thread (in moderation) …

    Outstanding Opinion Steve !

    The border control performance by this government, from the outset, has been pathetic. The only mystery is why we don’t have even more ‘travel related’ infections. It has been a disgrace.

    It is the public that pays the price with the lockdowns.

    And too … the economic costs of lockdowns is far greater than the economic costs of effective border controls. Is their any evidence of advisers spelling this out clearly to the government over recent months ? Surely that must have happened.

    • Yes, it is too late to close the border to have any material effect.

      Yes, locking down will harm the economy.

      Plus, even if we recover after the lockdown, we will not be able to source all the stuff we will need with the border closed, so the border will have to be reopened. As they say, only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked!!

      The reopening of the border will inject a new round of probably a mutated version of the virus back into the society, to ensure a level playing field between any herd-immunized section of the society and the rest.

      Now, could you remind me the point of the lockdowns?

        • I know that people misunderstand the concept of herd immunity – it is a concept after we have valid vaccination.

          My point is that even if we close the border and lockdown the society, we will soon run into a trouble because we lack industrial capacities to produce masks, test kits, ventilators, etc., along with all the other necessary items we no longer produce. Then we will have to reopen the border even if we know a new mutated virus is out there. The “financial engineering will save the world” nonsense has now come home to roost.

  12. Arthur Schopenhauer

    There is nothing in the Governments business stimulus other than borrow & spend.
    Talking with our smaller clients yesterday ( all of whom have paid their bills), everyone is wondering how the Fvk they keep their teams together, and we are all very aware of the bad blood created when people are ‘stood down’. The government’s current solution is for a business owner to mortgage their house to pay salaries, ‘cause everything will be back to normal in a few months.
    There was general worry around the number of staff each of our businesses can carry without income and for how long.
    All of our corporate clients have stopped paying bills. I got a bit of action when I reminded one large company that we can turn off our software remotely & I won’t hesitate if the invoice isn’t paid in 7 days.
    I left the day with the impression that big companies are going to leverage the suspended insolvency laws to screw little companies.
    Go fvk yourself, Morrison, Frydenburg, and the rest of Cabinet. Go fvk yourselves to oblivion.

    • Unfortunately stupid dogma prevents them from doing a temporary UBI combined with partial debt repayment holidays. If they gave every single adult money regardless of if they were still employed and earning money with delayed claw backs (say in 2021 or 22) for annual earnings over a certain amount plus if you have debt you have to continue to repay a nominal amount but interests isn’t accrued and they somehow back stopped the banks so they didn’t go bankrupt this would be easierto deal with as a society and and economy. That way those who can work do, those with compromised immune systems or who live with vulnerable people can afford to self isolate for as long as necessary, and others who want to work but can’t caneither volunteer or study online and learn some new skills

  13. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Myer is the first major to fall. Odds of coming back, quickly approaching zero.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Yep, Hard to see how Myer will pick itself up and keep going after this. I suspect even the senior managment team will figure out the best option is to stay shut and liquidate everything.

    • Reports of 10,000 staff being stood down. Fortunately head office is so used to stamping everything 50% off, it’ll be closer to only 5,000 in the end.

  14. Another interesting and strange thing about the virus I noticed:
    there are cases of weddings with 100 people where almost half of people got infected
    but at the same time, it’a very common (at least among famous in the news) that only one family member gets infected, develops symptoms gets tested but doesn’t infect other members of household

    I’m not sure we know so much about virus transmission mechanisms

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      I wonder how much hugging & kisses on the cheek is a factor. Weddings & Italy.

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      A single wedding, where they probably all shared food serving utensils, prior to everyone taking it more seriously.

    • a factorial rise in 5th columnist using the pandemic for self promotion is one unpredictable vector in virus spreading.
      it means not every “confirmed” case is a sars-vid2 case but rather a nut case.

      • they often test all people from a household of an infected person
        what I think it’s going on is that asymptomatic people stay infective for only very short time, so by the time sick member of household gets sick and tested all others are clear already so PCR test cannot find the virus.
        serology test would be much better

    • MMT has always been there for developed country currency issuers, administration based on ideological preferences is a variable.

      • You know its incumbent on those making noises to actually do – their – homework so they know what their banging on about Wing Nut. Say starting from a false premise and extenuating it is why orthodox economics is such a mess and as we can clearly see unable to deal with events such as this epidemic.

        But then again how many here on MB were past Ranoids or its ilk and still have a lingering philosophical chip on their shoulder, compounded by reality being quite the opposite of the grand narrative.

        You know if we do go 3rd phase lock down I might do an algo to correlate a few decades of ideological sites and comments, I have archived, too scatter plot the flux in dialectal styles over the period in question.

  15. I went home and told the wife l thought l had corona virus but doc said it was only the clap, she was very relieved .

  16. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Good news for me, one of those late invoices just came in. Very slow payers (curry munchers) took them a year to pay last time until they needed another job done. I had lost hope of any remittance (5K) as they supply the airline industry and even in good times always seemed on shaky ground. The dept collectors must have shaken them up and they rang yesterday trying to scam and weasel out even though not supposed to make direct contact. After the collections agency takes their cut (25%) still happy to get something.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Add the GP to Dan’s list, although there was probably a great deal of pressure coming from the PMO.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      LOLOLOL Sydney Mardi Gras was weeks ago and I haven’t heard of a spike in homo cases!

  17. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    Just why oh why is the FIRB even operating at this time, let alone approving sales of assets to Asians. Shut it down!!!!!!!!

  18. So how does this end…

    Tenant who bid $50/week more rent than others asks Landlord for 6 months rent relief;
    Landlord who bid $500k more than the first home buyer asks the bank for 6 months mortgage relief;
    Bank tells anyone who holds a 1yr+ term deposit for 6 months interest relief???
    Term Deposit investor asks Government for 6 months tax relief????

  19. darklydrawlMEMBER

    How’s Scumo’s form here: Seems his primary concern is “Landlords don’t suffer”. What a prick! No wonder people think he lacks empathy. No mention anywhere of the stress on renters who risk sudden eviction.
    “The measures include support from states and territories on managing commercial and residential tenancies, amid property industry warnings of a cash flow crisis when people cannot afford to pay their rents.

    “There will be landlords who will suffer. The banks will be having to make arrangements with them,” Mr Morrison said, adding that councils would have to waive rates and states may have to waive land tax.”

    • However, from the quote you’ve provided, doesn’t ScoMo acknowledge that rents may not be able to be paid, and that, therefore, other parties will need to adjust to manage it?

      That almost reads to validate renters, doesn’t it??

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Sure. The policy is design to protect renters which is good thing (and maybe I misread this) but it seems to me he is more concerned about the stress on landlords potentially missing rental income, than the stress on renters who potentially can be evicted on short notice and having little chance of finding a new place.

        Regardless of the stresses, the person who owns the property usually has more and better options than the person renting (not always, but usually). Surely a better statement would have been. “This policy will protect both renters and landlords during these difficult times”. It just seems like he care more about the landlords than the renters with that statement.

      • Peachy Bagholder

        they’re already evicting / bringing in friends – family to rort. renters will be forced to pay full rents or tica for life… renters will abandon the bagholder landlords / move home for 6 months.

        the bagholders / debt serfs are going thru the ‘branding’ phase of slavery. Unable to sell / move / think / do.

        See Northern Rock, for examples.

        Read “China: Alone” by Anne Stevenson-Yang for what China is doing as we speak.

    • rents are falling off the cliff
      just wait for current tenants to see a place next door going to half the rent

      • Hope so. The system needs it – it’s so sick, immoral, etc.

        We will be (trying) to negotiate a rent decrease soon, and will then move out later. It sucks, but it’s often what it takes for renters to make good on market forces: move. Live light.

        • Some analyst on the telly said it’s likely due to lots of AirB&B places becoming available for longer term rental, question is would you be happy to take a few months of cheaper rent & likely a nicer place only to be kicked out in 6mths (assuming we manage to get through this relatively unscathed like out leaders seem to be suggesting)

      • +1 Yep, I think when rents start dropping that those that can move will move to a cheaper property as they have taken it up the *rse from landlords for a too long. The new NSW tenancy laws also contain less onerous break lease fees for tenants wanting to move.

  20. “Doctors in the central Chinese city of Wuhan plan to embark on a long-term study of the effects of the coronavirus on the male reproductive system, building on small-scale research indicating that the pathogen could affect sex hormone levels in men.

    Though still preliminary and not peer reviewed, the study is the first clinical observation of the potential impact of Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, on the male reproductive system, especially among younger groups.

    Previous studies have indicated that the new coronavirus could bind with ACE2, a receptor protein cell, a large number of which are concentrated in the testicles.

    Li Yufeng, a professor of reproductive medicine at Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, had predicted in a study that the testicles could become a major target of the coronavirus attack.”


    • If you want young people to fear the virus. Tell them it will impact their verility. Suddenly they will all be indoors.

    • The irony… bailouts of corporates and inaccessible social benefits means the everyman get screwed, but his shriveled scroggs means his own screwing days are over.

  21. Conclusion to the article from the links above.


    Not much hope for some sense to prevail when just about every dominant paradigm commentator is yapping for infinite QE and ZIRP/NIRP.

    “.. Conclusion

    The dominant regime of political economy in the West since 1971, and particularly acute since 2009, has been built on a set of related economic fallacies: that there are no adverse consequences to manipulating the price and supply of money; that economic wellbeing can be measured by increases in flows of revenue rather than the growth rate of profit over capital; that such measures as GDP growth and stock market capitalisation ought to be maximised at all costs; and that the growth rate of the average matters, but not the average growth rate.

    Had we built a capitalistic society on the principles of sound money and long-term returns, a great many institutions and incentives would likely be radically different to what we see today. The structure of economic production would be far more robust to shocks, far more inclusive in its creation and distribution of wealth, and far less corrupting in its rewarding of political cronyism…”

    • Capitalism has failed when a billionaire retailer refuses to pay rent to a billionaire landlord.

    • No such thing as “sound money” pft … time and space in a geopolitical flux make it moot, its a philosophical – social psychology dead end[.]

      • Skippy,

        It is always a laugh having MMT cultists like you repeat your talking points about “sound money” and “gold bugs” and then minutes later have you guys huffing and puffing that you never meant to suggest that governments can create money without limit.

        If you do not support sound money you are an inflationista by definition as sound money is (as the article you clearly did not bother to read after encountering a “trigger” word made clear) about money tied to the productive capacity of the economy.

        But don’t worry, many of the fans of MMT (most especially the bank apologists) are pretty keen on inflation…. so you are not alone.

        • A. Cults are where people belief in stuff that is contra to reality, where all MMT does is distinguish it from the former gold bugs and hard money proselytizing.

          B. it’s these sorts that claimed MMT forwarded unlimited creation of currency as a knee jerk, then when informed MMT always said it was conditional on resources they then attempt to change their argument to fit. In this case MMT never change anything it had stated, albeit the money cranks had to change their statements post facto.

          As you well know a bit of inflation is not a bad thing, upper bound is bad but can be drained, deflation of the other hand is – BAD – for everyone and their dog or cat – hard or soft currency matters not.

          “We have to start using good old Keynesian fiscal policies. Keynes — as did Lerner, Kaldor, Kalecki, and Robinson — showed that it was possible to promote economic growth with an “appropriate size of the budget deficit.” The stimulus a well-functioning fiscal policy aimed at full employment may have on investment and productivity does not necessarily have to be offset by higher interest rates.”


          What you actually have to respond to is not MMT in of its self, but its administration, I propose the above PK perspective contra to your Austrian – off the shelf – philosophical musings. As you will note in Lars post the key aspect is the fundamentalist views about loanable funds and its broader underpinnings from both a sociological and economic aspect.

          Lmmao you think this is just about money … were challenging the very core of your ex ante concocted philosophy and its metaphysics pft. Best bit is your just a mouth piece and irrespective to the T or F of the argument – the argument stands regardless of the individual[s] spread across time and space and your emotive special pleas carry no gravitas, quite the contrary. Basically means your at your wits end and it the best you have left to argue with.

        • Cobblers!

          MMT gets flogged on the money printing point because MMT cultists love to make headline grabbing statements that they then need to walk back.

          And after walking them back they keep making them!

          The marketing slogan for MMT should be.

          “Yes, it really is too good to be true. It’s just another big government statist idea”

          That privatised monetary system you like so much is working a treat during the pandemic. Bankers at the centre of the pandemic response. How wonderful. Huh?

          • Sorry pft but for years and years hard money cultists demanded that MMT had to provide some political policy grand theory of everything like your lot likes to do … from high upon mountain top. It would not because it was not what MMT was about, it was about monetary reality and nothing more, that then would create a realistic framework to discuss policy scope in a democratic manner.

            Post Keynesians suggest a JG to the so called natural rate of unemployment and point out the fallacies of composition wrt the IS-LM on historical grounds and not ridged ideological philosophy built on wonky metaphysical musings.

            As you can clearly see the currant administration in the US has no dramas with MMT, its use though is the human agency part, you might want to deal with that first and foremost. MMT has been around for quite awhile so I think you need to deal with how its been administered and stop bleating on about stuff that exists only in your mind.

            Try responding to Lars post rather than primitive branch waving and gnashing of teeth …

          • Just to reconcile your insentient bleating about banks ….

            Banks are just a reflection of the philosophy that informs the legal – regulatory administration of them, same goes for any C-corp. Hence if you have issues with how private banks are allowed to operate I would think the same applies to other industry’s, yet I have never seen you make even a peep about anything other than banks.

            Its this narrow focus only on banks which calls into question your entire economic or sociopolitical world view. Its like your saying that everything else is OK and if for not banks none of this would be occurring past or present. Yet you have never been able to articulate how that actuality happened in historical context.

            Look I have dramas with banks, per se in Rayguns years facilitating the drug cash flows in Miami which staved off a recession in a conservative state without Government assistance, until that parking lot episode. So the ideology proceeded all events in this drama just to keep the narrative they were selling to the unwashed in power, of which, banks were a part of, but not the driver ….

          • MMT about money reality?

            MMT is whatever you want it to be. A column of smoke that is simultaneously the status quo and also a brave new world.

            The fact that it is promoted by big gummint types and is sold as the govt can do anything is the best guide to what it is really about.

    • OK. That’s a bit more GFC-ish.

      Surely there’s wave of corporate defaults coming, even with CB’s buying corporate bonds? Then, associated liquidiations of corporate bonds and equities?

      Surely CB’s won’t try and buy every flailing corporate bond….? Crikey, I’m not so sure theses days. Monetary madness.

      • “Surely CB’s won’t try and buy every flailing corporate bond….? Crikey, I’m not so sure theses days. Monetary madness.” – you and rest of the planet thinks same. Well I think same.. not sure these days.
        BoE and the FED already stated they are prepared to print unlimited amount of money. When in history this has been heralded by such important institutions. If Argentina’s CB said that then fair enough..

      • The cover of Wuflu was a big gift & gave countries an excuse to go on a semi war mobilisation (in the name of health & control) they’re conflating & milking it as best they can while no one’s looking & changing rules by the day (we’re even seeing Military on Our streets “to help the cops”). I can see “Whatever it takes…..” being pushed to the limits on Any spectrum imaginable – Until a distraction like Taiwan(?) becomes live. So a bit of extra printing & guaranteeing right now doesn’t look like anything in their big picture……

        In saying that, any shares carrying much debt after this dust storm has settled won’t be on my shopping list.

        • Good points. I’m concerned about those things, too.

          Hard to see China and/or Russia not making moves of some sorts, or even the US picking a fight (with Iran, or sabre-rattling with either China or Russia), to distract from domestic issues, stoke Nationalism, etc.

          • Russia already demonstrated it will be too expensive to attack. China will be same as Russia will not stand and watch.
            Was thinking about Iran and this can still be on the cards. Unless Iran wise up and urgently buys 10x S400s batteries – might be too late though. But if Iran can protect their missile sites then US will make big mistake attacking them. But US may opt to use tactical nuclear strike – yest these people will do it.
            If US does not neutralise Iran’s missile sites then Iran will blow up Saudi, Qatari, UAEs oil fields and US military bases in those countries. Plus Iran will hit US military bases in Iraq.

            But war is still high on the cards as US is desperate now and looking to fights all over.

          • The deep state might want a war, but Trump got in on the promise of no more wars, but, he likes popularity…… & 3 years isn’t enough time for them to forget old habits – particularly when elites need patsies. So if Wuflu isn’t enough cover, Proxy war coming up somewhere…..

    • given the prevalent hygiene (apart from Hollywood cellulose), Italy and Spain combined have a chance to appear as a minor blip on the radar.

      • yep. Until 2 weeks ago US was still calling it Just a Flue.. Trump was still arguing this will just pass like any other flue. They only just started testing and are due for some rude awakening in 3-4 weeks when they report over 500k infections and realise that’s just the beginning.
        Second stimulus package will be announced in 2 weeks and will probably be twice the size of the current one. This is when gold price will just take off like a rocket. My call now is for gold to trade at around $3k by end of Apr – all things equal – no cure or vaccine being announced.

        • Well… maybe that’s the mistake yanks made: thinking it is Chinese Flue, not the SARS-Vid-2 flu 😉

          I recently looked at analysis of the gold prices in the previous periods of turbulence and apparently gold is prone to pick up price in the lead up to turbulence but as the liquidity tapers it drops the value dramatically…
          I am not well informed on the topic though….

          • there is nothing to compare current situation with. Spanish Flue and other pandemics occurred under very different settings. We are facing both supply and demand issues. People can’t go to work. Fashion will become meaningless and with this 50% of retail will close down. Shopping Centres will go bust. Airports and Airlines are bust – together with car manufacturers and dealers.
            Only food, health some mining industry will be protected. Too many to be saved and so little unlimited money available. So some will be saved and that will require lot more stimulus than what CBs unleashed these days. People will need to be given more free money to buy food and that means inflation.
            Previous crises (2008 as most recent) did not cause price of fruit, vegtables and medicine to go up. This time is really different.
            Again, my assumptions are based if we don’t discover treatment or vaccine soon – very soon. If this drags longer than 3 months we are all fckd.
            Under such scenario price for physical gold will go much much higher than current prices. No country will be keen to accept paper for their goods. They all are going to start asking for gold or exchange of other goods.

          • It’s hard to say re: USD and gold…

            Trump is using incompetence and denial to hit the USD down – not deliberately, though. I think there are a lot asset liquidations coming soon (I think this market is moving abnormally quick, as the real economy is almost dead), which is USD bullish; further govt stimulus is also USD bullish (I think); money printing is USD bearish.

            So, there are strong USD forces pulling both up and down! Hard to pick what the net result will be. To me, it used to be clearer, but no so now, at least not in the short and medium term.

            As a reformed gold bug, I concede that the longer-term trajectory of the USD is probably down vs gold. I think high inflation is likely after high deflation. I’m not yet convinced that the USD will hyperinflate. The US still have the guns, and the US economy and people are very adaptive, innovative and resilient, which puts a lot behind the USD and the USD-based system (even if they do seem to often step on eachother’s throats to keep it there…).

            I confess I have been very USD bullish prior to the virus, and even until a week ago – but Trump has managed this virus stuff so badly that I think the US is going to get smashed harder than they needed to, both health-wise and economically.

            I’ve sold USD and ASX:YANK in the last week to levels I didn’t think I would at this stage in the crisis; I still hold plenty of each, but hold picked up Euros and Gold, as well as held onto my remaining Aus and international (ETF) bonds longer than I thought I would (I still think the AUD is in a large dead cat bounce). My current USD-based plays have substantial opportunity losses (from not selling earlier; still comfortably in profit)…sold a good amount for great profits at 57 cents, but should have sold more…Oh well.

            I appreciate people sharing their views. It’s helped me be more honest about my own choices.

            I hope my own musings have been somewhat beneficial. They are at least useful in sorting through my own thoughts.

            Hopefully we can all help eachother muddle our way through this with our capital’s purchasing power at least preserved. It’s a kindness we can genuinely extend to one another 🙂

          • Thanks Burbwatcher – a very interesting summary of the situation. This last week has also made me feel a bit heavy USD and I can see the US falling in a deep hole…but there’s plenty to go on this rollercoaster and I think it will take a tremendous amount of luck for AU to be up from this point in a years time so I’m resisting the urge to second guess.

          • Pleasure, Maun.

            I’ve sold some USD according to my level of faith in the US – my faith was quite high (vs rest of world), and that’s been hit, hence I’ve sold some…I’m trying to be more humble, and let myself sensibly rebalance, hopefully without being influenced too much by the 24-hour news cycle. I don’t want to be as volatile as the markets! I do value my sleep, too…

            Interestingly, the Aussue virus numbers are tapering off, I think (I mean: still rising, but possibly rising less quickly). However, the US numbers are going epic. Who said the Olympics was postponed?

            …if so, this is good for Aus, and probably AUD/USD bullish, at least for a little while. I think.

            Yes, we have the housing bubble popping problem, from the mass unemployment problem, but I think it’s a matter of timing – the respective virus numbers are now, by the hour; whilst the compelling housing numbers are weeks and months away (Corelogic dailies aside).

            Crikey, I think I’m actually holding a bit more AUD for now 😛 I think it finished the week at 61.7! From touching 54 cents recently! What the heck!? Volatile indeed.

          • Narapoia451MEMBER

            Thanks Burbwatcher, I have been following your thoughts with interest and made a bit of money last week following through on some ideas I formed in part from your musings. Thanks for sharing.

          • Narapoia, I’m delighted to have been of some benefit. I’m still learning so much, too.

            I’m also finding quite interesting that part of doing trading even somewhat well (though I don’t want to day trade!) really is mastering yourself first…though, I don’t think anyone can truly master themselves, in and of themselves (but that’s another conversation for another time)…but, the basic principle of the thesis is sound.

            Feel free to share your thoughts, too.

            Iron sharpens iron – even blunt instruments.

          • Credit where it’s due – it’s posts like yours and others (including our resident sun worshiper) on here that have helped someone new to the game like me stay in the green (touch wood) throughout this chaos. Please keep musing out loud for us.

            It’s crazy to think that a few months ago the market was hinging on trade deal negotiations. Assuming you’re right and the US is hit hardest by the virus, where does it leave us in a year? A wounded superpower looking at its main rival as the cause of its problems. China will be up off the ground well before the US but will surely have to readjust production in a less integrated global supply chain.

          • Maun, I still think the USA will come out of this strongly – they are strong group of people – even if, as I mentioned in another comment, it means clamoring over the corpses of their countrymen…I hate to say it like that, but that’s the impression I get, with exceptions of course…many in USA have Nationalistic inclinations that they confuse with patriotism (eg. Nationalism: ‘I would give my life for the economy’, etc … but it will chew the individual up and spit them up if they fail…).

            After all this, I think the US will bring a lot of manufacturing home from China, and that this could be Trump’s rallying call that could see him still salvage an election win, unless the Dems call it first, and poison the well for him; they also have a lot of capital now at ‘home’ that could, and probably will, be ready and willing for the take of re-industrialisation of the USA. Hence, the US unemployed could readily move into other roles – turning barristas into machining apprentices, etc, protected by new and enhanced Trumpian trade tarrifs. Improved National Security via a minimum domestic manufacturing base – protected, even legislted, if it has to be.

            Or…it could go back the same old globalism we had before..though, I think this is less likely? How could it? The West has been burned by their over-reliance on China during this crisis. And their people want and need new jobs – even the jobs of old!

            I think the West will also see it as a way of clipping China’s rise – and, I think it will genuinely hurt China, as they are so reliant on the rest of the world, but the rest of the world doesn’t want to be so reliant on them anymore.

            Hopefully those ramblings are still relevant to your comments.

          • Thanks bw – both relevant and interesting….pls keep it coming over the next few months. i’m off to muse over it with a beer in the garden.

        • Yes very interested in hearing people’s thoughts on the AUD in relation to the USD. Would it not be in the US favour for the USD to be lower, and if so, would that mean further appreciation of the AUD. Also, has implications for the price of AUD gold. ALl very interesting and I bow to many posters on this site and their superior knowledge on such matters…

          • Whilst it seems to make sense for the US to have a low USD, it does have implications for hegemony (power), and the USD’s status as the reserve currency all the perks that come with that – money and power and inter-related and, in some ways, the same thing.

            Hence, I think that US like’s a USD that is not too strong and not too weak.

            And, think about it this way, too – if you are a US corp, when there is a global crisis and the tide goes out, and money goes ‘home’ to the USD/USA, the rest of the world looks very cheap to your mighty USDs, doesn’t it?

            Go and take you picks of assets to acquire…one of the perks of the reserve status, surely? Even more hegemony for yer money, and round it goes, with the subsequent ability to make your military even bigger again, thus backing your USD and hegemony further…empire, much?

  22. Apologies if this has been posted already/elsewhere, but I was having a look around Canberra’s rental listings on allhomes and noticed a lot of new rentals Geocon have advertised around Canberra and South Coast:
    Obviously their Abode Hotels would be doing it tough so could be a clear sign of Canberra’s developer giant struggling. Interesting time to list new rentals, especially given many are furnished. Can’t imagine there will be much demand. Perhaps they are trying to get ahead of the likely flood of new listings to come with many renters having to end leases. Note too that each of their listings is for multiple units so the total number of available units must be in the hundreds!
    In terms of Canberra properties for sale, there do appear to be some signs of lower list prices on allhomes, but clearly just the beginning…

    • Thanks CA. I would also guess (but do not have figures) that international student arrivals into CBR fell well short this year and many of those furnished rentals might have been usually rented out to students.

      • Perhaps some, but I think most would be the usual $100-150 per night motel/hotel room. That market would have crashed hard so it’s an interesting ploy to list them on allhomes as a weekly rental at a time when supply will be rising and demand falling. Thoughts and prayers.

        • Ah – ok – I may have misunderstood your first post slightly. Maybe a different market. 😊

          In any case I expect the student accommodation sector is also feeling the pinch.

          • also to take in consideration is some people will move back with their parents. This will be owners and renters. Owners that lost their jobs will try to rent their houses and renters will vacate as they can’t pay rent. Rental listings will explode.

        • parliament is shut too. I guess some of those places would have been leased to polies and their staff.

          • Yes, the places Geocon have advertised would be for pollies and their staff, but probably more so for other govt and industry types that stay in Canberra during the week for work, and then the odd tourist on the weekend too. There’s even a place at Malua Bay on the South Coast listed too. Could be a sign of Geocon panicking as demand crashes and their cashflows go with it. Can’t see them getting much interest, and it will be interesting to see if they drop their weekly rents accordingly.

          • CA, heard through the vine that pre-CoVid Geocon were marginal. People that purchased in Gungahlin’s two towers spent many many months chasing their $20k rebates while dealing with shoddy construction issues. Rolling into the CoVid era, reckon it’s a matter of when not if they survive.

  23. one of my son’s friends who works at a Coles warehouse just resigned as he feared there is not enough protection provided to the workers there. Typical in times like these when there are so many unemployed and a Gov that will change the law to make it legal to kill people.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Of the supermarkets I have been too over the past couple of weeks most had only minimal preventative procedures to protect their staff / customers etc.

      If that is the ‘public facing’ way of doing business, I cannot imagine it is better in the backend / logistics where nobody is looking.

      • last week the butcher at my local shopping centre did not use any gloves when he served me. I don’t buy from that place but happened to be there so thought may as well. will never buy again from there.

      • Plenty of ‘cleaning squads’ holding on to disinfectant bottles, but too busy speaking in Punjabi, Urdu, Hindu et al on their phones and Bluetooth to actually be doing anything.

    • I read that he just re-signed. Then I saw that he resigned. Its funny how those mean the opposite of each other.

    • “The 14-year-old was on the 96 tram from Southern Cross Station to St Kilda, when the unknown man approached her from behind about 10.30am on Sunday, February 2.

      The alleged attacker was described as being of Indian sub-continental appearance.”

      He was just following the advice of Scumo. If you have a go, you get a go!

      • Excuse given will be, the girl looked like my shrunken ‘visiting’ grandmother from behind, and I wanted to surprise with a hug.

  24. Just attended two online house auctions – at the same time! They are very convenient for non-bidders who wish to observe!

    Both good quality properties that would be in high demand from families under normal conditions.

    Both passed in. One had zero bids. The other one had only one bid (a total lowball bid that even in my ultra bearish opinion was completely unreasonable… for now… but points for trying!).

    Good times.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        With you Niko… Strange days for sure, but certainly entertaining at times. I am enjoying the BBOZ and BBUS wild rollercoaster ride – trouble is, that is only Mon-Fri so these weekend house auctions are most excellent.

        • Lol, yes…I was worried about BBOZ and BBUS for a moment there, but they seem to be good now….timing getting out will be fun, though….to be greedy or sensible? I tend to not hold GEAR or BBOZ very long at moment, using spare change to make some spare change and then get out. Equities scare me at the moment (and have done so for 2 years, hence why I’ve naively missed so much of the gains…at least I had bonds and USD…oh well…)

      • Yeah but it will take sellers a while to get there.

        This bid was 40% off fair market value from early Feb (pre Corona). And I reckon there are still a few people around who will pay close to (pre-Corona) full price, say 5-10% down and reckon they are doing well.

        Give it time 😁

        • agree.. it will take 6-10 weeks for conditions to allow for what MB is saying. For now people still have biscuits, cheese and wine and think this will be over by Monday.

          • Introduce the mortgage payment holidays until flu is over and the dramatic clouds become just overcast skies.

            Nope, I am not saying it is not possible what you predict, only that I learned from Steve Keen that anything unimaginable is possible if it takes to save the RE sector. Probably much more than at the time SK got burned

          • Djenka – that is very possible and I am taking that in consideration. Problem is it is not only RE to save. Everything is shutting down. Even industries that are allowed to operate will experience disruptions in their operations. I agree RE is very close to Scumo’s hart or whatever this cnvt has in there but he will fall apart from the pressure. Scumo and his mates are too incompetent to deal with the enormity of this problem so I predict they will fck up everything including RE.
            I still expect to see riots and looting of food stores. Gov is too slow to channel money to people to buy food and too many don’t have any savings.

          • Completely agree with your last comment – the saving grace for this country is that the current government is too slow and incompetent to act, and by the time it happens sentiment will not be able to recover. Too many industries will require assistance – am hearing that even some medical clinics which you’d think would be relatively recession proof are having revenue issues, won’t have enough to pay staff for too much longer and will have to close.

          • My view is essentially the same.
            The only difference is perhaps that I see RE as our only industry with meaningful pulse and I anticipate it will be protected the most.
            Food… when swaths of recent migrant flee because they can live in poverty much easier in their country of origin…. food will be enough

      • Our daughter wanted to become FHBer a couple of weeks back and we said we’d give her a hand, but we ‘asked’ her to make a bid 30% below what it was listed at ( Highly embarrassed, she was, but she did. Good girl!). The answer was ‘No” but the last week of isolation has cooled her enthusiasm. But 40% you say? Thanks for the tip on the next bid!

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          I’m going to wait 4-6 weeks then let a few agents know I’m a cash buyer and am completely unreasonable.

          Nothing to lose.

        • ask her to be patient for couple of months. By then asking prices will be 20% off the current ones. Then she offers 30% of the asking price.

          • Yep. And sniff out the properties where the seller already bought their next property (ideally pre-Corona). They will be sweating like a one-legged bloke in an as$-kicking contest.

    • My lowball offer = I’ll help you carry your sh!t out to the front lawn, free of charge.

    • Online auction is useless LOL. I don’t feel the urgency nor the stress that would prompt me to bid unrealistically high.

      • online auction is now driven by desperate but delusional sellers who still think somehow they will get Feb prices. Now they are realising that even the dumbest of the bidders who still want to bid high can’t bid because they simply lost their jobs.
        As I said earlier give it 6-10 weeks. I think all the gains RE experienced since Scum Morison got elected will be given over this short period. Then any bids will be accepted or at least considered.

      • They also use about 3 different apps, which is not good. Non savvy boomers won’t know how to bid either.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          hahahaha. OMG – that is sooo true. Half of them will still be trying to work out how to video call the kids so they can help them download and install the darn app! 🙂

      • Online auctions and lockdown day drinking feels like a great combo. Get p!ssed and next morning….oh sh!t I just bought 3 houses in Dubbo.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Wow. There is a reasonable chance of that happening. I read some reseach a few months back that concluded that a decent portion (say circa 35%) of online purchases were ‘drunken crazy impluse’ type buys and they could track when this was most likely to happen etc. Wish I had bookmarked it as it was interesting.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Hah… The lowball offer was likely David from the comments above 🙂

      And thanks for doing this and letting us know the outcome Arrow2. Much appreicated.

      • I didn’t register, I just logged in to watch. Easy.

        How to register – the process depends on the platform. Some are like eBay where you type in bids etc. Not sure what the registration process is for these, haven’t tried. Some are more just like a live video stream of the auctioneer talking, and bidders are on the phone to agents who are in the auction room conveying the bids. In this case you need your ID and you need to sign a line in the contract which will bind you on the day if you win, plus another which authorises the agent to bid for you, and I expect there are some requirements so the deposit is paid rapidly too as you aren’t there to pass over a cheque.

      • If you’re an older Gen X type or Boomer, probably impossible to figure out. If you’re Gen Y or younger. Easy as to register. But using the app to bid is a pain and I can’t view any of the action yet. I seem to have missed the bidding. Some are in GAVL and others in Anywhere Auctions. Both are not great UIs.

        • Canberra is a bit more backwards gav, see my post above! It’s like televised auction with phone bids! Even a Gen Xer like me could figure it out 😉

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      What’s the bet we’ll see ………” Domain will not be publishing any auction results until further notice”
      …….surely they won’t puplish terrible numbers …….can’t let reality get in on the magic ……

    • Arrow, disappointed I missed those today. They both sound very ugly and embarrassing. You have to wonder how long they will persist with this online exercise. I expect there will be media and RE agent spin following this weekend on there still being a lot of interested buyers, but buyers were spooked by the new online auction. Reckon they’ll try the online thing for another week or 2 before they pull the pin and there are prices on most properties. One agent in Canberra seems to have moved to the silent auction EOI approach, but even that looks likely to fail.

      • Indeed.

        In fact one auction was brought forward by three hours on the day (today). I only found out by sheer luck because I called the agent in advance to ask how to access the auction.

        So that’s a warning. Not sure if they moved it forward because they wished to avoid a clash with another auction, or if they wished to avoid transparency, or some other explanation. I presume they would have informed their likely bidders of the change but it wasn’t published on the listings websites. Very odd.

      • When in doubt blame IT and technical glitches. Showcase a few boomers eager to buy who were not able to register in time or has NBN issues. That will fix thing.

  25. Aussie landlord insurer Terri Scheer email getting around the the traps:

    “Please be advised that given the uncertainty around the evolving COVID-19 situation we’ve had no option but to place an embargo on all new Landlord Preferred Policies, Scheer Short Stay and Landlord Preferred Self-Managed Policies. This means we are unable to issue any new Policies effective 12.01am Thursday 26th March 2020.”



    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      I just read that. Well worth a look. Some funny lines in there too.

      “Whatever last payday they were hoping to squeeze out of their broadcasters, they lost infinitely more in community goodwill. For the NRL, the bill has come in for all those years of reputational damage done by reckless and stupid individuals. They might comprise only a minority, yet for millions of disengaged Australians, to be asked to pay taxes to keep a dopey sex-fiend man-child on $500,000 can only produce the grim smile of schadenfreude. The end of bloated salaries for footballers? For most of the population, COVID-19 needs to have some upside”

      • I agree the NRL has been badly managed, but I actually think NRL player salaries are about right for people at the top of their profession, with only about a decade of prime earnings. Contrast this with ridiculous sums earned by Euro and US sportsmen, or bankers with multi decade careers.

        The s3x-fiend man-children comment just show Knox’s true colours, probably egged on by some media house rivalry.

        The post-covid world will be no morally rebalanced Utopia. As always happens, the working classes will get shafted. At least allow them to turn on the telly and watch their favourite team run around the park.

        • SMH loves to talk up rah rah union and stick the boot into league any opportunity it can get.

    • Peachy Bagholder

      prolly should ditch all codes in favour of Football (the one where you use your feet). Lets look outside ‘global’ competition residing in only 20 countries. FFS we made it into the world cup umpteen times, we can do it! We can play a global sport!

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      She was asking “what am I signing things for” AS SHE WAS SIGNING….

      Ah Houston we have a problem………

      • But what am I signing for?


        I’ve got a little dog here, but I would make sure that she was fed before I was, because it wasn’t her fault

        but decent

  26. Anecdata Western Sydney: vybrant numbers and aggro attitude way down. Beginning to believe that some are packing up and heading home. Are the current round of Gov’t payments for PR/Citizen only or is the trap that you had to have been established a taxpayer (ala Rudd money). That would burn quite a few.

    • I expect some immigrants will read the writing on the wall (I mean, having no job later on) and will head back home once travel restrictions are lifted – cheap flights, too!

      Interestingly, it could put more downward pressure on rents and property prices! 🙂

    • All those chunts earning undeclared cash in hand are fcked if they need to demonstrate their income has fallen!

      • And you know what FECK those chunts! I have been paying $60-80k in income tax the last 3-4 years. I didn’t like it, but people not paying their fair share really shyte me. So if there tax dodge has negative repurcussions so be it. 😃 Me nor bitter at all lol.

        • Paybacks Gunna be a b1tch. There are a sh1t load of tradies who have a new top of the range Ford Ranger, flash new home, kids in private school and regular overseas holidays yet only have a taxable income of $50k. So when these tax dodging chunts go looking for a hand out and get sweat FA, there won’t be a lot sympathy for them.

          • Yeah I am in some tradie groups on FB and they all brag about their cashies and how much they pull each week that the tax man doesn’t know about.
            Karma hopefully will be a bitch to them

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          that’s what my initial thoughts were but now realize the illegals and cash in hands are now making more than ever doing food etc deliveries. Huge upsurge in delivery work.

      • normally I try to cover all angles when I am working on how things will pan out and who get impacted in what way but I totally missed this one. very good point.
        This is something we will have to keep an eye on as lot of Scumo’s mates will naturally fall in this category. My guess is Scumo will try to water down some rules so these cnvts can get access to money.
        mate, this is bigger than you think as Scumo will be spending more time on how to channel money to this demographic than how to save the Nation. I am serious and this is not my 4th shot of Rakija saying this.

      • Yes, it’s why I don’t have much sympathy for all the restaurants that have shut down. The reality is that most do not declare all their earnings. Cash transactions are not recorded.
        Also, staff paid cash in hard annoys me too. They are not contributing to the running of this country so why should they get a handout from the government now?
        Anecdote – A relative worked as a chef in a greek restaurant at Brighton Le Sands in Sydney. The owner (greek) used to sock away all the cash payments and stick in his safe. Apparently every year he would usually have around 80K+ cash (early 2000’s) that he would take on his yearly greek holiday.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Hard to get a handout if you are here on a tourist visa and have no TFN ….although Kristina K will probably be advocating for them

      • lol – good call. I do have some sympathy for some of those folks as many are honest and hard workers actually but we need to look after our own. Gerry Harvey may have to hire Australians at aussie rates to look after his horses instead if having slaves who will work for little bit of money and some food.

    • That is an interesting piece.
      Trumpy is not listening to those whose insight put him in the white house.
      Trumpy’s actions are exposing him as the fraud he is.

      Trump is digging his political grave with this issue.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      From the twitters : after the travel restriction has been lifted in the bridge linking Hubei and Jaingxi, the police in Jiangxi refuse to people from Hubei enter. When a policeman from Hubei went to ‘negotiate’, he got bashed up, and it got messy from there.

    • I have never for a minute believed China had their outbreaks under control. It was too convenient. Too smooth. Too perfectly in line with what Xi demanded and local officials were in charge of reporting.

      Too mathematically impossible.


      “ (Bloomberg) — The long lines and stacks of ash urns greeting family members of the dead at funeral homes in Wuhan are spurring questions about the true scale of coronavirus casualties at the epicenter of the outbreak, renewing pressure on a Chinese government struggling to control its containment narrative.”


      • never believed in any Chinese data. But the virus numbers take the cake. AN absolute joke. Yes, I agree they did slow infection rates down a lot but nowhere near the levels they report.
        Just waste of time reading their data – same like reading employment data out of Oz. Those Feb numbers are simply wrong.

      • once more… what difference nominal number matter?

        If infections are stopping or slowing enough to allow some movement of people, nominal numbers matter sweet FA.
        If 100,000,000 Chinese died so far but they are not dying any more… this is what matters.
        Quarantine is easier to apply in democracies that Westworld does not approve…

        • I agree with your view and why I said I do believe they have it under control now. But why not reporting correctly ffs? It will still show they have it under control.

          • not one country will ever report exact number. I am not uncertain that Italia and Espana fudge their books too…. expecting accuracy in numbers during pandemic is asking too much. exact numbers may come after it is all over

        • China is now reporting growing numbers each day again, and claiming foreigners are responsible for these “introduced” infections.

          Bwaaaaahahaha if you believe EITHER that their new cases ever reached zero, OR that new cases are now due to foreigners (and thus not Uncle Xi’s fault because he achieved a glorious victory and the West is evil!) then I have a bridge to sell you! Twice!

          • @ arrow

            whatever you choose to “believe”, number of cases increase in China are far lower than Italia, Espana or US of A. Chinks can lie by factor 10, or 100, or even 10000, but not by millions
            otoh if you remove political bias… it is clear that China has a good fighting chance to be the first to end the infection.

          • Apparently Singapore and HK have spiked again due to Uni students coming back home from the states and europe.

          • is the bridge reference to previous conversation?

            i could have not bought the bridge for reading between the lines and my own analysis and interpretation…. otoh, giving in to CCP/China hysteria is adding bridges to portfolios….
            i guess it is also hard to swallow that Russia blocked its border in time and now deals with trivial numbers in comparison…. must be another Chernobyl moment….

            bottom line…. as you wish mate…. beliefs do not need any support in anything

  27. https://www.bbc.com/news/52071611
    Love him or hate him, Trump doesn’t muck around.

    “He invoked the Korean War-era Defense Production Act, which allows a president to force companies to make products for national defence.”

    “ president said: “We’re not looking to be ripped off on price.”

    • Pity Australia can’t build ventilators as our leaders decided we didn’t need to retain a healthy domestic manufacturing sector.

      We’ll have to join the queue of those begging at the doors of international suppliers.

    • Narapoia451MEMBER

      He’s just invoking it to be seen to do something, GM had started re-tooling the plants last week. As with almost everything he does, optics more important than substance.

  28. Arthur Schopenhauer

    No need to panic, Dan Murphy’s is fully stocked. The country still makes alcoholic beverages.
    Stocked for the next 6 months.

    • There’s nothing wrong with those test kits. Must have been a mix up on dispatch and Spain received the CCP specifications. Gotta keep those case numbers low!

      • You are quite correct. The Spaniards stupidly bought from a supplier who didn’t have an export certificate

  29. Many shut-ins in my apartment block have taken to smoking. Against the Strata laws but Strata managers couldn’t be bothered. Bloody annoying.

        • Yep with 32 properties – you only need a couple of properties with renters who do not pay after the 6 month ‘hibernation’ the and they are in massive strife.
          Looks like a lot of “equity mate”. Considering the locale their properties are in the property values are also going to compress.

        • Don’t worry ScoMo will find a rescue stimulus plan to bail out IP owners. I still won’t qualify for anything though, because I haven’t had enough Go’s. 🤣

    • Their first property is 57 Linden Sutherland. Probably worth about $1 million ATM but frankly it’s on a very busy main road i.e. shit location. It rents for about $500/wk and comes up fairly often for rent, I assume because of all the road noise. In a downturn this property will be hit hard.

    • LOL a RE developer [son of a slum lord with daddy issues] that made packet on gentrifying and then road the tide that lifted all boats with a side of casinos [failed] and resort golf courses …. Lmmao ….

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      Yes. There is a way.

      Put them in handcuffs at GP, and march them to an awaiting plane.

      Better wait 15 years though, until we can again make our own.

    • Has it been covered by ‘Your ABC’?

      What a great, and essential service they provide! No one else can do what they can do.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Any Chinese company larger than a certain size is effective owned by the CCP.

      Australia welcome them with open arms because they buy land at inflated prices, and the dog box apartments they build generates a lot of stamp duty. Like baby formulas, the Chinese bought them because nobody says we shouldn’t sell to them.. The Australian government have repeatedly assured us there is enough mask for the medical profession, which we discover now is a lie, so they’re now blaming it on China to deflect the blame.

  30. Coronavirus panic-buying no issue for Victorian family toilet paper-free for 5 years – ABC news
    No issues with tissues then.

  31. FYI, I sent the following email to the NSW Premier today (I am from NSW).

    If you want, feel free to use it as a template to send your your state government, and amend it to suit your state and legislation, and personal perspectives.

    I whacked it together fairly quickly, so please be nice 😉

    Premier Berejiklian,


    To whom it may concern,

    Please protect renters by preventing evictions at this difficult time. Renters are being disproportionately affected by this crisis, and often represent those that have the least contingency.

    Evictions need to be banned (or similar) so that renters can renegotiate their rents down to new, reasonable market rates, without fear of eviction – which is a substantial fear at the best of times.

    Please also make provisions for negotiations to be made mid-lease/contract, if this is not already possible. In many cases, even substantial reductions in rent are required, and reasonable.

    I also strongly suggest that rental deferrals are not a realistic alternative, as renters will no more be able to pay the deferred rent later as they can now. No – instead, new rental rates are required to meet the market.

    Please also prevent ‘no-grounds evictions’ from being utilised as an alternative. (In fact, please also consider removing ‘no-grounds evictions’ entirely from legislation).

    I humbly suggest that, at this tumultuous time, the very fabric of our society depends on protective measures like these.

    Thankyou for taking the time to read this letter.


    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      The market has already set the rent.

      So free staying. No evictions. No pay later.

      Are you fking serious?

      • The market literally changed overnight – increase in supply from air bnb/short term rentals/student accommodation being returned to residential stocks, massive change in employment status means massive reduction in what current AND future tenants are willing/able to pay. Someone will always crack first and start offering massively reduced rates to keep their property occupied, the market will be forced to follow.

        • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

          Well that’s something different.

          If you ban evictions AND future repayment you’ve distorted the market.

          How can I offer my house to the market if I can’t evict someone not paying?

          If that occurs I don’t want to pay my mortgage.


          I would carry a renter for a period because that’s who I am, but no future repayment while my expenses carry on?


          • I’m an OO and want to negotiate my house loan limit / amount owing down too please

            Let’s knock 20% off ?

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            Like I said… “How can I offer my house to the market if I can’t evict someone not paying?”

            What about the debt owed? You think that’s reasonable?

          • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

            “distorted the (rental) market” oh my god, the absolute horror. We can’t possibly have a distorted housing market

          • Everyone wants to talk about fairness (understandble) but those questions aren’t for the plebs who can’t pay (both renters and dumb as f!k IP owners with no buffer), those questions are for society at large and the powers that be and during this once in a generation event maybe it is best for everyone to get a bit of a free ride and sort it all out later. Any landlord that insists on collecting the 6 months back rent is kidding themselves, how will people who could barely afford the rent before this magically pay double after this? Things are changing, we don’t have the answers, if everyone tries not to be a d!ck it’ll be easier to figure out.

            As an aside, you talk about rent holidays distorting the market and wilfully ignore the negative gearing, CGT discounts, etc and lack of govt investment in social housing that has distorted the market and caused many of the problems we are now facing. Try and think of the whole picture.

          • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

            [email protected]

            With or without NG, there’s a housing and rental market all over the world.

            I would suggest rent is reasonably similar in other global cities. Or regional like for like. House prices are inflated because of the NG. Rents aren’t inflated because of NG.

            Overwhelmingly rent is high because of immigration. obviously. I’m opposed to that you might have caught?

            If we want a solution put everything on the table. You seriously think it’s reasonable to have a rent holiday while the owner continues to pay the bills? With no future repayment? No evictions?

            If you/they haven’t got a job, move somewhere less expensive.

            Yes, I was a dk. Mostly because I can see the debate is already unfair. Yours included.

            To be honest I don’t care that much about this, but get fired up when people want more for free, while I’ve worked for decades building what I have, which isn’t that much.

          • Totes, you just can’t kick people out in the middle of a pandemic…

            Further, most people will not stop paying their rent; most will play their part – at the right market price. To frame it otherwise is at hominem, and a straw man. Blacklisting is still valid, and should be enacted for those who choose to cease payments/squat, instead of coming to a temporary arrangement. However, blacklisting must only be used for refusal to pay anything reasonable, the new depression-level market rate.

            Consider seeing it this way, at least for the most intense part of this crisis: the social and market obligation is for food and shelter first, then profit.

            The taxpayers – including tenants – have already downpaid their rights for the rental property to even be nationalised, in a sense, for a short time: capital gains discounts and negative gearing are that downpayment. In a sense, it’s time to call upon the favour granted – even if the favour is just not eviction (no destitution in the midst of a pandemic!!), and the obligation to negotiate reasonable rent.

            I honestly think what I’ve said is quite reasonable.

      • Nope, never advocated free staying.

        Negotiate rent to market conditions – ie. down.

        Negotiation or moving out/in is how rentals conduct price discovery.

        Since no one can move, and the market has changed drastically, then negotiations must occur, without fear of retribution.

    • I would like an addendum, something that says where is my free stuff or at least UBI? Thanks.

    • You are way to early to be sending anything like that to the pollies.
      At this point they still think they can fix thing

      5h!t will need to get a whole lot realer than it is now before they consider any of that.

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      My father is still practising law in his 80’s. Was chatting to him today about rent negotiations and he reminded me about the rent control Acts that existed in Australia that he used to deal with all the time when he first started in law with a conyencing.focus. Few remember but we’ve been here before.
      Post WW1, then Depression era, then carry over as even when Acts changed, people couldnt be removed on existing properties until they died so continued to the 1970s and even 80s. Landlords used to constantly harass people with legal cases and all sorts of tricks to try and get protected tenants out as it would revalue the property.

      Found this article on a quick search https://thesocialist.org.au/short-history-rent-control-australia/

  32. haroldusMEMBER

    Just spent 7 hours cleaning the kitchen,reorganising the cupboards and most disgustingly cleaned the fridge. Organising the prepper stash so we know what to get when.

    For fridge, everything out, into the cold bags, wiped all surfaces, washed all shelving. Can’t work out how the fvcken crisper plastic thingy goes on.

    Worms having a party tonight.

    Missus was whingeing but now she’s happy (harry has to initiate cleaning activities).

    Harry’s having a chardie.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Yep, putting it in the fridge is easy, taking it out in the right order afterwards, not so much.

      Wilbs is about to open a Taylor’s… Merlot… 😮 and recycle some boiled chicken that’s in the fridge into chicken with mushroom. Tonight.

      I expect it will be comparatively awful. The Merlot I mean.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        I cleared Dan Murphy’s Alexandria out of CVCS the other day. Had another 2 cases delivered today.

        But case only = 6 bottles.

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          Thanks H … nice drop
          …I love the acronyms on MB ….helped me discover urban dictionary……..a whole world of enlightenment

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Hard to beat for 13 bucks a bottle.

            No flaws, good expression of variety, bit of depth and tannin grip, fair bit of dark berry on the palate, not so much oak, good dark fruit on the aroma, with a tiny hint of red fruit; bit young, but what are ya gonna do? Cellar it? Nah.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            From Dan’s. I don’t get that much oak.

            $13.95 in any six

            $83.70 per case of 6

            $13.95 per bottle

            Consistently good value for money, this Clare Valley Cabernet from Taylors shows ample varietal blackcurrant flavour seasoned with some attractive sweet oak. The tannins are firm but nicely in balance.

          • haroldusMEMBER

            Also after a bit of tasting, this wine has a very decent black jammy length pretty much across the tongue, but more focused at the back. Not a whole lot of acid or salt, thinking about it.

            In the tasting glass, the aroma/bouquet is not very distinctive, but you definitely get the Cab Sauv expression of dark berries. And even looking for it can’t sniff much wood. To me that’s not actually a bad thing. But I am an an antipodean pleb.

            More than anything it’s blackberry jam when you breath in with an open throat.

            Again: is pretty velvety, just a tiny bit young.

            Final edit: Just got a tangent of pencil shavings, so there’s the young oak.

            Might be best to age.

            Further edit: A faint metallic finish (from the vats?) and a bitterness that compares to chewing orange pips. Not necessarily unpleasant.

            This is minutes after the taste.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Well, we all have to start somewhere…
          (6 is better than 0).

          Surprisingly, the Merlot is absolutely awful, and no one should go near it. 😋

          It’s the 2018, but ready NOW. And I doubt it would benefit from cellaring very much. It tastes, to me, of actual fresh of the vine grape AND vine stem. Very surprising. For 15 a bottle, miraculous. It’s the Merlot version of the Chianti at the local Italian that *always* tastes so good, and you can never understand how.

          2017 seems all gone in Brissy. Hope I’m wrong.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Indeed. The stuff in these jars should not be legal. Seriously.

          I haven’t touched one in *years*. Current circumstances demand I attempt to reacquaint myself with this crap. Slowly.
          I eagerly await the opportunity to report tomorrow morning’s results. 💩

    • My wife keeps empty margarine tubs and just leaves them lying around…

      I can’t believe it’s not clutter.

  33. About to crack through 600,000 official cases. Seems only a couple of days ago that we reached 200,000.

    • Clearly people are not self isolating like they should be! It wouldn’t be spreading otherwise.

      • DingwallMEMBER

        Via SMH

        Victoria’s chief medical officer savages ‘crap’ behaviour as crowds flock to beaches
        By Paul Sakkal
        Victoria’s chief medical officer has savaged the behaviour of people who congregated in groups and ventured out of their homes for non-essential activities today.

        Crowds gathered on the St Kilda beach foreshore and hundreds flocked to beaches on the Surf Coast despite stark warnings from Premier Daniel Andrews to refrain from doing so.

        Brett Sutton, the state’s top medical voice, branded the behaviour “really crap” and said it could lead to an “unstoppable spread”.”

        • When Andrews was going to allow the GP and had it cancelled without his decision, I dont know why the fvcktard is surprised people arent listening to him. Same with Scummo and his footy comments and absolute incompetence in this whole saga.

  34. It is about to get very ugly in Australia if this is what ‘hibernation’ means:

    I have not seen a distinction in what has been announced so far between business that are going concerns and will continue to be once things get back to normal and ones that won’t. The large businesses will bully the smaller ones into insolvency once this has passed. Credit is going to lock up.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      I was hoping that the ‘hibernation’ means the government pays the rent, other outgoing, and the employee’s wages while the lockdown is in effect.

  35. So what is scummo gonna do? Everyone can take a break for 6 months but all bills/rents will accrue and you’ll need to pay STAT when the lockdown ends!

    Laughing stock Straya.

    The simpleton hasn’t grasped the enormity of the situation. Much like his orange single-celled organism equivalent in the US.

    When we bail-out the rich and everyone else gets to eat what they defecate ‘down’ at us.

  36. Its just absurd that a virus killed an ideology which claimed so much authority – over everything – something that was actually natural in origin, but made manifold by the aforementioned ideology.

    So I guess the next question is will it further entrench itself contra to the opines of the past, not unusual considering history and esoterica or is another event horizon to another enlightenment on the cards – we do have better data now.

    • I am rather hoping that this global epidemic makes people so suspicious of experts waving darda that they burn them summarily at the stake.

      • I guess its what is construed as experts JohnR …. mouth breathers or rigorous methodology that does not have some esoteric underpinning or ex ante self serving ideological PR agenda forwarded by elites seeking vindication of their self awarded authority.

        Come on supply side was always about telling the unwashed what they needed – too feel good – and hard or soft money matters not.

          • Sadly it can’t … every time the unwashed have a bit of a break and can spend time outside serving their betters, too be better informed, about everything, elites they throw a spanner in it or something comes along and the herd goes into panic mode … authoritarians then rise to the occasion – rinse and repeat.


            I’m a Atomistic Individual in a Platonic market matrix seeking my own personal affirmation against the totalitarian universe seeking to diminish my potential …. cause praxeology said … barf~~~~

    • The staunchest neoliberal countries will be the hardest hit. And it had already lost credibility anyway.
      You can see already that all the myths are being shattered. Finance and executives types “work from home”. Sports-tainment, marketing and the distraction industry disappears, retail closes, “entrepreneurs” and the gig economy go under, journalism – in other words the neoliberal economy of smoke and mirrors.
      and what’s left are the essential services who have to keep working – health workers, paramedics,teachers, utility workers, farmers, public servants – all who’ve been disparaged by neoliberalism.

      • I remember as a kid in the 60s being a civil servant was a thing to aspire too … now look at it all …

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Put it down to innovative boomers that can’t download an app.

      Hang on a goddamn second!! They’re doing the calculations using sold and overall, not sold and confirmed. Someone has messed up! It should be over 80%!

      Someone will get their arse kicked over this.

      • I know! 80% clearance with a median price of 1.35M. Increased clearance rates AND higher prices. Who could have thought Wuflu could have been so good for property. Open the gates! Were open for business!

      • The issue was the 547 properties withdrawn, they have to count those in the denominator per their forumula, so they have reported sold at auction + prior / (total reported results + withdrawn).

      • Yeh what’s doing there – do they all of a sudden want it to look real bad to get some sort of gov support or have they now changed tack and want to scare sellers to lowering prices to just get turnover?? Maybe it’s as simple as all the usual numberwang stats folk are in lock down and they’ve cut the re-education budget so the new contractor hasn’t been “trained”.