Weekend Reading: 21-22 March 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:






Leith van Onselen


      • lol.
        My neighbour bought a pretty expensive ski boat just before recent Chrissy hols began, used it relentlessly over this period, washing it proudly after each trip. I reckon he’s used it once since new term began and is probably looking to offload it as we speak given Covid would be causing serious issues for his business – exporting stuff to Asia. Yikes!

        • Give it a month and then offer him a toilet roll for it.

          Two if he agrees to keep cleaning it for you.

          • I shouldn’t laugh at others’ misfortune but when someone’s been riding high for a time – and letting everyone know how well they’re doing … I hope that doesn’t make me a bad person.

        • My mate has a boat, which he loves but that acronym just about sums it up. When we go away to the lakes for a weekend we all chip in for fuel but the rest of the costs are his – and they are plentiful. He has a v expensive bow-rider but I reckon all the kit and maintenance has probably cost him half again.

    • wait a bit, they become almost free as recession unfolds
      boats are the first thing people throw to stay afloat

  1. 2009-2019: Cheapest money cycle in history – share buy-backs
    2017: Biggest corporate tax cut in history
    2018: Record corporate profits
    2019: Flat earnings growth – Repo tail winds
    March 2020: Government bailouts please.
    What’s the solution when central bank arsonists set everything on fire? Liquidity now and more matches later.
    MMT Solution/problem because its (sarc) capitalism.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      A conspiracy story I made up.
      If the CIA under the direction of the US usury oligarch cartel planted the virus in China (mainly affecting that ethnicity), was it done to bring China to economic submission to allow the Central Bank infiltration into one of the last bastions against world domination of its influence by weakening China and its trade market.
      btw it could backfire like the LSD experiment of potential mind control from 1953 -64.
      Please respond if deemed ridiculous.

      • this is very poor conspiracy theory – so obvious
        you need to go at least one more level down

        e.g. they did it to justify imminent recession in US by implanting virus via china so it only looks like they did it to crash china

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          OK try this one.
          Another theory is that China started it so it could buy gold, stocks and shares on the cheap for world domination.
          Anyway you look at it the economic detestation is far greater than the health. Last year 61,200 people died from the flu but no counties in lockdown up till now only 11,349 people have died from Corona. WTF.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            The Flu didn’t bring the Health systems of Iran, Italy and soon France and the US, to their knees in four weeks.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            If things continue as they are there will be that many getting buried by bulldozers before the end of April.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Wifey just came home with her C T.
            She recons that the Chinese govt has instructed all expats to buy out all Chinese made products from stores world wide to boost demand. This maybe why Chinese manufacturing is back to full production.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Niko, Arthur, Mining.
            See below for admission of Corona death rate subdued by lockdown and time frame of cases basically agreeing with your opinions but still say economic devastation worse and may also kill countless people. Media hysteria feeding this Who owns the media.

          • China PlateMEMBER

            ” getting buried by bulldozers before the end of April.”

            Perhaps we can begin in Poland say in the Katyn forest with some Russian engineering expertise to boot

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Yes CP, I had Kosovo War atrocities in my head but there’s plenty of others to choose from. There’s previous experience in all manner of things you wouldn’t think of.

            Time to start advertising for guillotine staff with prior knowledge. Probably start in Cambodia and work out from there. Hopefully there’s still a few of the portable guillotines in operating condition that were kept as momentos.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Thanks Arrow,
            Just informed of full production on another site but stand to be corrected. Heading for full production may have been more appropriate but even that seems a tad early.
            Tried to edit C P to say Conspiracy Theory earlier but wouldn’t allow. Now Mining is using C P for China Plate.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Calling the extraterrestrial invaders that infiltrated the Washington DC establishment in 1952 “lizard People” 🦎 is intolerant, xenophobic and quite frankly RACIST.
          Well speciesist anyway.
          I never expected to see this
          degree of prejudice coming from You MB.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        John Birmingham wrote a rollicking boys own adventure with the same plot and released it last year. ‘Day Zero’.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          How good is “Without Warning” by Birmingham.

          “On the eve of the Iraq War, March 14, 2003, the bulk of the population of the contiguous United States (along with the bulk of the populations of Canada, Mexico, and Cuba) disappears as the result of a large energy field that later comes to be known as “The Wave”. Without Warning deals with the international consequences of the disappearance of the world’s last superpower on the eve of war.”

          The permanent energy wave didn’t land over Seattle, Alaska and Hawaii leaving 5 million Americans, the Iraqi invasion force and a large at sea nuclear deterrence.
          Fken good read.
          China disappointingly doesn’t get involved in the global machinations that unfold, the story is set in 2003.
          They’d be making their move today.

          • Ermo, 2 weeks ago I submitted a TV Pilot screenplay I’ve been writing for a few months into the Sundance and the Austin Film Festivals.
            The premise:
            “As a deadly virus sweeps the world, a trillionaire scientist buys up companies and moves three million employees to her geo-engineered, high-tech island utopia. Is she trying to save the world, or change it forever?”

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Gotta be a Netflix movie or Minni series in that for ya.
            Good luck Brother.

      • My tin foil hat theory is China did it on purpose. For complete plausibility they had to let it run rampant in Wuhan, for global distribution they had to let just enough people out. The trade war meant the jig was over for them and they faced inexorable decline in a global economy contemplating the repatriation of supply chains (and the inherent withholding of the perhaps more valuable IP). With the formerly prosperous status quo imminently disappearing, and faced with the prospect of conversely watching Western economies perk up from more localised manufacturing and edging ahead in the tech/IP race….why not re-level the playing field by releasing a virus which your economic nemesis has spent decades neutering its ability to respond to: a dysfunctional political class, an abominable health care system, a populace with decaying health and no trust in government. China might not come out clear economic winners from a move ultimately intended to bring down the other guy, though 12-months of suppressed Western demand may provide them the best of limited options to recalibrate and internalise their economic growth engines. Throw in a few million Uighers on whom to refine and test a virus that can be said causes the Goldilocks level of devastation – picking off enough of the populace to cause panic without being species threatening.

        …much more interesting than thinking some bloke ate a bat.

        • “The trade war meant the jig was over for them…..”

          this proposition shifted your excellent theory away from plausible.
          Gambit is not a loss….

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          Go down another level.
          Russia does the job themselves, let loose the virus in China, just before Chinese New Year, in the midst of the Chinese productive economy., within a few Klm. of Chinese germ warfare facility. USA gets blame by Chinese
          They are just across an imaginary line on the map.Too strong China is a threat to Russia as well as US.

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          Occam’s razor suggests it was arrogant Chinese scientists or researchers blasé approach to health and safety, accidently releasing something into the wild. Then their dismissive, inept, ass covering bureaucracy first refused to believe it, then did their best to cover it up so it didn’t appear ‘on their watch’, the dithering obviously took place all the way up the line up to and including Winnie the Pooh Xi, and before long it was a massive problem for China. China then chose to DELIBERATELY make it the worlds problem.

          As anyone whose witnessed China’s daigou shoppers descend on the small regional towns of their supposedly fellow Australias can appreciate, the cultural same values that would see nothing wrong with stripping ‘fellow’ vulnerable Australians of the food in their supermarkets for their own personal profit, would be the same ones who with a shrug of their shoulders unleash a plague upon the world.

          We’ve been importing hundreds of thousands of people with these cultural values for years. When you see the empty shelves and our food waiting on the tarmac waiting to be sold back in China, I ask you – are YOU FEELING ENRICHED YET?

          How about STRONGER AND MORE UNITED? How many more times will a country town see their shelves stripped bare before some pulls out a gun and shoots up one of those daigou bus tours.

          It’s almost like I told you so, and got snidely called a racist for simply expressing my well founded concerns about what ‘diversity’ really means for our society and future.

          • Interesting the photo on the 2GB site was all Asian women no doubt under orders. Their handlers should be found and promptly double tapped. Same goes for any bogan hoarders.

          • robert2013MEMBER

            Those of us who are still a ‘we’ need to find a way to organise and fight this. The only way I can see is for the remaining Australians to move to Queensland and agitate to secede.

          • Tensions are beginning to mount in ominous fashion. Big Australia is basically dead. No need for it to spill onto the streets. Covid-19 has killed it in its tracks. Watch.

    • And the mirrror of the above sequence of events is: huge equity raising down the road to mend balance sheets …

      Except … in an environment where the medium-term economic damage of the virus is indeterminable …

      What is equity really worth, sitting as it does under a mountain of debt. And collapsing revenues?

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      I saw several photos posted on LinkedIn this week: planes packed full for Asian students (wearing full protection gear), all flying from the US and UK back to Asia.

      Don’t trust the US and UK governments to respond properly / competently.

      • Ye but I can also see the planeloads of people getting herded to a high-rise, the doors unsealed, the passengers thrown in, and the doors re-welded up. So from one fire to a sealed building.

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          But China was smart – remember they built those ghost towns for a situation just like this? They must have known something?

          • billygoatMEMBER

            The simpsons knew something or psychic.
            Dean Koontz? Or is that CGI photoshop.
            Dutch PM? F wit or superior intelligence. Shook bare hands at end of public announcement about not shaking hands and they both pi$$ed themselves laughing. Also someone in Dutch govt or medical science field had foretsight to register Coronavirus.nl in 2014 or 2017 so either not new or ‘produced’
            Gotta love u toon whack jobs #Imnotworriedaboutdataorcv19

      • Yep, it won’t be long now before all the Chinese students who paid thousands to make it over here, suddenly decide that being quarantined in a shoddily built high rise is not what they envisioned upon returning to Australia.

    • and JHU struggles to get data from Australia. This happened few days ago too. And it’s not JHU to be blamed.. me thinks.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      “Trump will get his wall, and it’ll be built by the Mexicans”

      Trump may have to look over his shoulder as the Canadians may start building one. The Israelis may lend their expertise

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      As above normal flu 2018-2019, 61,200 deaths, no lockdown, no panic. How much has lockdown contributed to less Corona mortality but the rate may still be higher as the year is not over yet. Alternatively would it have been serious enough to warrant crashing the economy

      Malaria deaths 2017 = 435,000. 2018 = 405,000

      2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
      African 533,000 493,000 469,000 444,000 428,000 411,000 389,000 383,000 380,000
      Americas 459 444 392 391 289 324 474 620 577
      Eastern Mediterranean 8,300 7,500 7,600 6,900 6,900 7,100 8,600 9,200 9,300
      European* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
      South-East Asia 39,000 32,000 28,000 21,000 24,000 25,000 25,000 20,000 12,000
      Western Pacific 3,800 3,300 3,600 4,600 4,400 2,800 3,500 3,600 3,600
      World 585,000 536,000 508,000 477,000 463,000 446,000 427,000 416,000 405,000

      • Yeah but no one cares about how many people die in Africa, it only matter if they die where the media can sell stories and make headlines about it !

        Not that I don’t think that this has the potential to kill 500 million people, which would actually go a long way to helping the over population problem to be honest

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        Alternatively would it have been serious enough to warrant crashing the economy
        The world economy was already crashing.
        The Virus is a Very convienient vehicle to carry the blame, and distract from doing what is needed to mend it’s very obvious short commings.

        • Agree

          It’s a manufactured panic so they can point and say whocoodanode and then bail out everyone and start the privatisation/debt scam again

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        There are around 250m cases of Malaria each year – if Malaria was as deadly as Corona it would kill around 7.5million people each year instead of just 400k.

      • codeazureMEMBER

        When you look at absolute numbers, it doesn’t seem to make sense to make such a fuss. I can understand why you might think that.
        But the percentages of fatalities are more important here. Also bear in mind we’ve only seen 2 months of this thing in anger and its growth rates are staggering, not linear but logarithmic.
        Malaria in Africa kills 0.0004% of those it infects.
        Seasonal flu kills 0.1% of those it infects.
        Covid19 is so new we don’t know for certain yet, but the consensus is 0.5%-2%. So it is 5 to 20 times as deadly as flu, even with the best hospital care.
        The big problem is not this base number, but what will happen to hospitals. With flu, 1.5% require hospitalisation, but with covid19 it is 15%, 10 times higher. This means at the ICU level, instead of 1,500 beds per million infected with flu, we’re looking at 40,000 beds per million with covid19. And this thing is far more infectious than flu.
        What we’ve seen in every country where it takes off is that the country’s entire hospital system gets rapidly swamped and unable to do anything but treat a fraction of the seriously ill.
        If anyone needs a hospital for any other reason, out of luck. They are totally overrun – there are plenty of videos from Italy showing this apocalypse. There are no specialists any more, just triage. Once this happens, then fatalities go many times higher as well as all those who die from everything else that’s not being treated.
        This is what the shutdown is trying to prevent. Governments have to choose between enormous numbers of deaths if it gets out of control and, as you rightly point out, economic meltdown. Neither path is pleasant, but noone would choose the first option if there was any way to avoid it. Even our amoral government, who would normally do anything for their business mates has reached this conclusion.

        • Please would you stop posting so much commonsense . The nonsense brigade won’t be able to handle it

          • Oh, I am so sorry for posting so much commonsense all the time – you can call me Mr. Obvious.

            Then again, if eveyone were Mr. Obvous the world be a better place. Much better.

  2. Any thoughts on how covid-19 will affect Brexit? Unless BoJo really stuffs it up, I can only see it making the separation simpler through the forced trial separation. Couple that with the ability to more easily prosecute the case for reduced dependence on other countries it should be child’s play.

    • Family in the Uk are outraged because the media are saying the UK is locked out of medical supplies and PPE produced by Germany.
      If anything the people we know are saying this is why Brexit was a bad idea

      • As if Germany can spare any supplies for export as it desperately tries to seal its long land borders from Italian Von Trapps heading north across the alps.

        Britain will now build up a domestic medical supplies capacity just as most sensible countries will now be doing.

        What brainiacs thought relying on long international supply lines for urgent medical supplies would work well in a pandemic?

        • Except Australia of course. Our esteemed economists and political class will decide that it’s not economically viable to establish a medical manufacturing industry in response to a one in a hundred year event.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Germany has stopped PPE going to Switzerland too.

        Germany looks after Germans. That’s why it still has a manufacturing base.

        (Austria looks after Austrians.)

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Too many Boom, far too many.

            The Austrians wouldn’t have a bar of it. Really should be called Chicago Economis by some Austrian immigrant.

      • U.K. has already banned the export of a whole range of drugs that ae not under existing contract. Note this especially included Quinone and Hyroxyquinone.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      Must be a different brand of happy clappy to Scotty. Scotty‘s Hawaiian-shirt wearing, head happy clappy last Sunday said that they were all protected.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Does anybody know whether Scotty from Marketing visited his mate’s service at Hillsong (Scotty’s church is Horizon, down Sutherland way?) last Sunday? He was supposedly doing so, but maybe he had to spend some time on ScoVID-19?

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Probly not. It would have leaked by now. The blowback from wanting to attend the Sharkies game must have been enough to get through his denser than usual skull.

    • Lmmao at that link …

      First Passports are a government document, so changes are its job.

      Secondly the currency devaluation comment is a huge ideological tell, followed by the freedoms and democracy memeology.

      I now return you to your Raniod delusions … Praexology – !!!!!!! – chortle …

        • Left vulgarity of the executive sometime ago and see no reason to experience it again under the guise of politics democratic [JKding] …. especially in the U.S.

          If the true believers get frisky and things get fugly and the military is called out I, think it will be like the L.A. riots – blockades of entry into the important peoples property. Oh and there is always the Rwandan aspect lurking in the back ground.

    • The reference to inflation is interesting. Very interesting.

      I smell problems brewing.

      • Zimbabwe’s problems was FX flows post trade flows. Consider China’s trade flows with consumerist demand going poof, albeit China does have substantial FX reserves. So I ponder what goodwill will be like sometime around 18 months from now and the trade ramifications of that.

        I think that is going to be on a lot of peoples minds for a spell – sorta like smilie poker where everyone has to drink and the game is reset.

        You know simple stuff like the seller denoting payment in its own currency.

        • As I keep explaining though – the absolute size of the FX reserves is irrelevant. It’s the ‘relative’ size that matters. Most Asian countries (since the Asian ‘flu’ in the late nineties) ran conservative reserve ratios of 25% or more thereafter. The Chinese reserve ratio is probably under 10% right now – this is what makes the Yuan so vulnerable. Throw in banking sector non-performing loans of 35% or more and you’ve a recipe for a major currency crisis.

          The lack of stimulus by the Chinese is explained by the above.

  3. All that the western world had to do was secure their borders and let China hang itself and the 21st century would belong to the US and its allies.

    Western world undone by sheer arrogance thinking viruses don’t affect us, that it only targets Asians.

    US will be massively weakened by this relative to China.

    • It was nothing to do with thinking it targets Asians.

      It was everything to do with wanting to keep getting rich trading with China.

      Ironic, yes. Enormously ironic.

      Racist / arrogant, no not really

      • agree. I will also add that the west did wanted this virus to hit them too. the system was about to fail and masses were building guillotines already. Elites needed to pin the collapse on something else. Not sure it will work.

    • China even showed the West what was necessary to contain the virus and gave everyone plenty of advance warning. Scomo was left wondering how the loss of Chinese students might affect his budget surplus and planned accordingly.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      The Donald may have won a (trade) battle, but China has won the everything else war?

      • I’m thinking not. China has a severe currency, banking, economic sh!tshow descending – as we speak.

        Don’t get me wrong, I think we’re in a similar boat, however, China will be the epicenter. Again.

          • I would think it advisable – either that or start a major war. Viruses are much cheaper to deploy though, so yeah, that would be the way forward.

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            We were never going to tackle the Climate Catastrophe effectively with a world population heading for 9 billion.

        • China is getting back to work at 60% capacity. They are the world’s manufacturing plant. They can easily rejig and redeploy resources.

          They’ll be back to normal in a three months.

          I don’t believe the Chinese numbers one iota, but they avoid a humanitarian disaster in Shanghai and Beijing.

          Western countries will be in complete lock down three months from now. Consumption based economies will die never to be resurrected as unimaginable amounts of wealth are simply destroyed.

          • But if the entire West is in lock-down there’ll be no need for China to get back to work. Extended holiday for them too! Lovely Jubbly.

      • Since the GFC Boeing spent $100B on stock buybacks. And they will get bailed.

        The only answer now is to bail out via nationalisation of many companies, wipe out shareholders and debt. The mega rich will end up being less rich

    • Do a deal. Obviously Boeing have to offer a percentage of the company to the US government if they are going to get on their knees and beg for welfare. Great opportunity for the US to create state owned enterprises much like in China.

      • No, no, no. This creates a great opportunity for the Donald to increase his reelection war-chest. Loans for donations to a worthy cause.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Let’s hope the hand back the reigns to Engineers. Another MBA led disaster.

    • Morally reprehensible because: huge stock buybacks and Boeing Max.

      I’d demand that every CEO in the US return half their remuneration earned in the past 5yrs if their company has been engaged in stock buybacks.

      These companies consider themselves too big to fail ie. A politically untenable event. Iconic brand, mass redundancies etc.

      • To think it all started off with the whole Munger LBO program … cashed up [savers] Corps using by backs to drain cash off the balance sheet so lustful eyes would pass them over.

      • Thought that the UV from the sun was a disinfectant was a myth.


        While ultraviolet (UV) light can be used at extremely high intensities as a disinfectant, everyday UV emitters, such as the sun, only release low levels of UV light. “Ultraviolet is able to kill COVID-19 if it is exposed to the concentrated UV ray in a certain amount of time and distance,” Dr Pokrath Hansasuta, an assistant professor of virology in Chulalongkorn University’s Department of Microbiology, explained to AFP by phone on March 18, 2020. “However, that level of UV exposure is harmful to human’s skin. Most likely, it will be in the light bulb or lamp as the natural UV from the sun is not strong enough to kill it

        • PalimpsestMEMBER

          Argh. These unqualified statements bring out the pedant in me. Of course UV from the Sun kills the virus. It just takes longer at lower intensity. It reduces virus survival time on sun-exposed surfaces. Not in a couple of minutes though, like a high intensity source would.

        • so an assistant professor of virology in Chulalongkorn University’s Department of Microbiology claims that sun emitted US cannot kill corona virus but can definitely burn (kill) layers of your skin cells and change you DNA?

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Beach in the sun is probably the safest place to be. It’s also a good place to check out some t1ts, something that’s getting hard to do otherwise due to this ridiculous social awkwardness thing that’s being imposed.

      • Probably govt is mostly keen to ensure people have no other option but to go to house auctions.

  4. Charter flights out of Peru and Argentina for stranded Aussies

    Australians will be charged about $5000 each for the flights


    We should run chartered flights so that “students” can go back home. Jobs have dried up anyway.

    It is still a boomer remover:

    Published 17 hours ago

    HIV drugs don’t work as coronavirus treatment, clinical trial reveals

    The virus has infected more than 230,000 worldwide and killed at least 9,300.


    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Just saw that the UK is going to pay people unemployed due to the virus, GBP2,500 (AUD5,000) per month. The start of the UBI juggernaut?

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Can’t have dirty unemployed scum taking up ICU spots while party donors are being sent home to die.

        Eventually we will hear an outrage about doctors being ordered to take someone off a machine to give it to someone more worthy.

      • In the race to show leadership BoJo and Jacinta are lengths ahead of Scovid and Trumpy. Bojo has also announced the closure of all pubs and eating places. Scovid will have to make the same decision here but for some reason he is delaying the announcement.

        The difference between a fool and a wise man is often not the decision but the timing of the decision. Scovid will be forced to make decisions next week that he should have made this week. He is a fool.

        • After March 29th we’ll be fine – census date – and then everything can shut. 😉

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          It’s the Clayton’s UBI, as soon enough there will be masses of long-term (or even never to work again) unemployed.

      • The start of the UBI juggernaut?

        Who knows. Most want it permanently:

        Sep 30, 2019

        77% of U.K. adults and 75% of Canadians also support UBI

        Majorities in all three countries support taxing tech companies to fund it

        Why is Estonia going so big on free transit now? At its root, this is a form of fiscal redistribution.

        Wales in the U.K. (a larger, more populous place than Estonia) already offers free bus travel on weekends

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Working in those foreign students he shouldn’t have and panic buying & hoarding might just get him across the line.
        At the cost of only 1 or 2000 grandparents.

      • I’d be happy to give them blunt objects and have them fight it out for the last tin of foie gras. It would be worth it.

    • Complete crap go to some open houses or a auction today and see for yourself. A couple I’ve been following had house withdrawn another auction pushed back that says buyers bailing not jumping in

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Don’t forget housing is our religion. If you don’t own a house and have at least one investment property you are the devil’s spawn and ostracized. People are desperate and the virus is the least of their worries versus a social wilderness.

    • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

      Are they buying toilet paper that comes with a free house? Better than IPADs…

    • An older battle scarred ex stockbroker who lived through the last 3 busts was telling me this week that the markets will now be on the nose & common thinking will be buying more IP’s from here on in……..

      • Lol paid with ubi they are dipping there toe in the water before full automation China is finished

      • In normal times, agree. But these are not normal times and this is not a normal crisis. On the Macrovoices podcast Jim Bianco was talking about pre and post virus world, and the sooner we start wrapping our head around the distinction and can begin to correctly extrapolate some of what the post virus world will look like the better off we will be. This is why I’m glad I have limited myself to one opportunistic share purchase ($500 only) and I finally bought two lots of BBOZ this week. The market drops are not over by a long shot. I was too occupied with other virus prep and dealing with other crap to even think of buying BBOZ or BEAR, but finally it entered my mind this week. No one, even those of us who correctly identified this as a threat back in Jan, is able to properly wrap their head around all aspects of what we are now having to deal with.

        • I find myself playing catchup too so I’ll check Jim out thanks. I don’t think it’s over yet either & think old mate’s living in the past. I’ve missed chances too – just too many things going on to be across it all with one brain & prepping too.

        • +1 was a great podcast. Agree the world won’t be the same at the end of this. I don’t mean the world ends just that some trends will invert others will accelerate. For example will corporate air travel ever recover to the same level? People that lose their businesses will be so scarred I can’t imagine cheap money is going to get them back quickly. It’s almost like this is a PTSD causing event both from a health and economic perspective. You can’t put this risk genie back in the bottle. Hence there are multiple legs in how this plays out from an asset repricing perspective. Ppl dip buying will be cleaned out multiple times until they stop coming back etc. credit cycle is over as well.

  5. AbignaleMEMBER

    On the effect of rampant money printing, Venezuela and Zimbabwe are always used as modern examples. Something I only realised recently is Israel had a 10,000X inflation in the 70’s and 80’s, see Twitter link. Isreal is still a wealthy advanced economy, more advanced than Aus, so while there’s winners and losers and a lot of redistributing, the end result isn’t some kind of catastrophic poverty. So that looks like the end game to me, Brent Johnson is right you may as well be in stocks equally with gold.


    • you don’t get the difference between types of money and also who gets it
      Zimbabwe and Venezuela printed cash money and gave it to the people via rising wages – creates demand driven inflation- CPI (via life necessities’ price rises)
      western world creates debt money few levels up and gives it to rich people – that only creates inflation of some assets e.g. shares, real estate, …

      for decades Australia was creating hundreds of billions of new debt money every year but that didn’t create any CPI, but shares and real estate inflation was rampant
      in crisis, when new debt slows and old debt gets repayed or defaulted on actual money supply shrinks

      • Zimbabwe created its own trade shock which then set off a debt death spiral in their own debt – stoopid – destroying capital.

        Venezuela declined the amorous attentions of its past masters and got a trade shock for turning it down, pegging to the USD has its good days, but when it goes bad it wipes out a thousand attaboys …

    • Stocks won’t keep pace with gold in a high inflation scenario. Why? Because high inflation is bad for the economy and, last time I looked, a bad economy wasn’t good for stock prices. Stock prices will definitely compensate you to an extent (look at Venezuela’s stock market in recent years) but it won’t fully compensate you – nowhere close.

      • Not really talking about residual rights Dom, its just churn, and play money for the fabulous. I’m talking about core economic activity and how it reflects on FX reserves from a national perspective, near and far term.

        I guess its like the old U.K. example of building factory buildings to kick things off, till some were informed, without the tooling to go into it – it was worthless. LOL I mean blokes like Boomen are like hens teeth these days and that’s what you need to ramp up, good luck finding or training bridgeport operators to make the machines to make more machines.

        • Someone ElseMEMBER

          7-axis CNC milling machine, hallowed be thy name.

          But there’s a hell of a steep learning curve without an old-school operator on hand.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          “its just churn, and play money for the fabulous”
          Fken oath.
          People like Dom warn of the “moral hazard” of “productivity sapping” printing press inflation in the real economy and yet are happy to receive huge gambling windfalls on their “Savings” from the 10s of Trillions, created out of thin air through QE, being pumped into asset prices and then spend these money for nothing windfalls into House prices making Hones for working people unaffordable!
          That Home prices are not included in CPI calculations shows just how bent over and Fked working class people have been by this BS mentality.

          • Er, you must have me mixed up with another ‘Dom’ – did you miss the fact that I’ve been railing against ‘the system’ for as long as I’ve been a member here. The funny money inflation system that skip loves so much is the very system that is shafting all of us – but particularly the less well off. He just doesn’t understand how it’s shafting us, infatuated as he is by some loony neo-Keynesian ideology.

            If people hiding out in gold (and real assets) happen to make a windfall from this current crisis, then you can hardly blame them — all they’re doing is taking cover from the insidious actions of their Governments. There’s a huge difference between speculating and actually doing something proactive to protect yourself from a Govt whose policies are likely to hurt you – no matter how well intended those policies appear to be.

            Where you got this idea that I’m recycling financial markets profits into property I have no idea – you must have me mixed up with someone else. I own one property and it’s the one I live in. I’ve never owned an IP in my life. My sole responsibility at this point in time is to get my family to the other side of this crisis and I’ll take whatever action I see fit to do it — the collectivists out there would prefer that we all join hands and ‘go down together’ — after all, “only fair”and “equality”. No thanks – that’s not for me – but good luck to all those who are enamoured of the idea — I’m sure the Gubmint has your best interests at heart and I’m sure they’ll do all they can to keep the prosperity flowing for you 😉

      • There is also the very good chance that most gold mines will have to close down from the virus as I doubt that many will have put in place a permanent workforce happy to be locked up working onsite for months at a time (though I do know from a friend working in the travel industry that serves miners so are planning on working 2 weeks on one mine and going straight to another 2 week stint at another mine, rinse and repeat, so they might get away with it for a while but they’ll still end up shut down that way). Some producers will be able to get away with selling stockpiles but given that there are some serious divergences between the physical and paper markets, I think that for a while, this could be the one time that physical outperforms the miners. Once we move through the virus shut down phase (which could be in 18-24 months time depending on how this all plays out and how the virus mutates – way too many unknowns) then I expect the gold miners to really pick up, but I imagine there will still be massive swings in gold stocks between now and then.

        • Yep, this worries me about owning miners right now — I have a lot of exposure to bullion via ETFs and other vehicles so that’s fine but I have a reasonable amount of mining exposure too. You could easily see many of the weaker players go bust in the next 12 months so owning the stronger producers with the cleanest balance sheets is key as they are the ones that are likely to be able to access liquidity if needed. Hopefully most of the better management teams have the good sense to stop the cash burn and go to maintenance if things get marginal. I just don’t see equity raising for explorers and small caps as possible right now – people are on edge and cash is king. A lot of the investors in the speccy mining sector stocks are retirees and they will have been completely spooked by what’s going on especially if their main portfolios are not looking to flash.

          There’s nothing worse than being ‘right’ but being rendered bankrupt ahead of the event – entirely possible in this environment.

          • “There’s nothing worse than being ‘right’ but being rendered bankrupt ahead of the event – entirely possible in this environment.”
            Cheesh!!! Ain’t that the truth!

          • There are enough large and medium size producers who not only have a lot of dore stockpiled, but some have billions in cash (I’m not sure which ones but they exist) that they will be able to buy out the best of the juniors about to go into production (they may not put them in production immediately). I’m guessing that mine closures would probably be only 6 months in total (while I think this whole thing could go on for up 2 years; getting herd immunity or vaccine will get us out of the crisis period) until they get a non diseased workforce together (and by that stage I reckon you could get a workforce together that would be very happy to be in isolation for months because we will be in a depression. But I think that the distressed selling of miners hasn’t even really started (I could be wrong with that and miss the bottom in mining stocks but at least I have physical PMs. One of my juniors went up 35% yesterday because they’ve nearly got mining permission in QLD, and they’d be able to start mining extremely cheaply at a brownfield site as they don’t need any processing plant equipment. Of course I’m down heaps on it atm and I only buy stocks in $500 lots to reduce risk, so it didn’t make much of an impact, but it has gone onto the watch with interest list for later possible purchase. I think it could go down more as reality starts to set in about ok it’s cheap to start mining, they need only a small amt of capital to get started but can they get a workforce to actually do that? That’s the time to buy. I’m thinking of putting more of my house deposit money into the Perth Mint and just buying gold. I think in 12 months it should do well and it is way less risky than mining shares. But boy it is kinda of difficult to think accurately about what the future may hold, but some of the smart American finance people I follow are saying it’s a depression and they’re not buying for a while because people haven’t fully realised what is happening.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      Israel has one of the highest inflation rates in the world, what with their land area growing

  6. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    Landlords asked to help struggling renters.

    Human nature 101….Suddenly all renters will be struggling.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I’m finding that the more my tenants are struggling the more I can put in arrangements that go very much in my favour!

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Ye a bit different to Landlordly Landlording 304 hey… the main topics in the course outline are:
      – real estate goes up …. always
      – ergo rents go up always
      – renters who ask for something to be fixed are whingers (and rent must be raised even more just to teach them a lesson)
      – maintenance is deferred …………. indefinitely
      – recession? Don’t worry teh government will step in and ensures the banks look after real estate investor whether they are struggling or not
      – Renters are scum and should be taught to bow to their overlords

      • Most people can’t wait for the world to go back to normal. What you described is “normal” which makes me wonder why people want it back.

        • Yep! Normal … I remember that… back in January. Retailers folding. Construction cratering. Aussie dollar falling. Unemployment rising. Debt rising. Fires barely out.

          Geez they were golden times weren’t they. 😁

  7. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    Fairfax…”Australia acted early and rightly to control the spread of coronavirus”

    What absolute fking garbage. When do we start rioting?

        • True. Ok, fellas, we may have to shelve the riot till they relax the gathering restrictions.

        • Only if it’s indoors and besides, you need four square metres per rioter plus indoor riots are meh. Mum gets real cranky when she has to clean up the mess. A rollicking good out door riot can have up to 500 rock throwers. That’d waayyy mooarrr Molotov cocktail lobbing fun.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        “I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.”

        “We are just the guys to do it”


    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Yeah, I read that and nearly spat my coffee out this morning. ‘Churnalists’ – all spin, no analysis.

      • Headline in the AFR – don’t have link cause was reading the physical paper:

        “Slump to push up Super fees”

        Talk about adding insult to injury – see your Super evaporate AND be slugged with higher fees. Gotta keep the parasites well fed.

        Seriously though, when do the riots begin?

    • Fairfax is complete garbage, it used have decent analysis a decade ago. What I want to know is where is the accountability. In corporate life if I put in certain measures on a project I have to report back the progress. Not sales are up or costs are down, but by how much and when. If someone had any semblance of a brain they’d ask the government and/or medical officer, according to your modelling when will the measures you’ve taken actually have an impact on flattening the curve. When will our case growth numbers depart from the exponential curve they are currently on??? Because currently it appears as though nothing has impacted and the question is why are the measures taken to date ineffective, maybe your assumptions are wrong? Maybe it transmits asymptomatically? Maybe you’re missing transmission paths in the community from under testing? Maybe it’s too soon to have impact, but when will we see it so we can’t hold the calculus to account!


    Don’t Expect Millions To Die From Coronavirus, Says Richard Epstein … Reason TV / YouTube
    … h/t PH …


    How many people worldwide will die from COVID-19, the disease caused by a novel coronavirus? Estimates range into the millions, but New York University law professor Richard Epstein says such guesses fail to take into account all the actions that are already taking place to contain and suppress the pandemic.

    In an interview conducted via Skype, Epstein, who is also a fellow at the University of Chicago’s Center for Clinical Medical Ethics and a podcaster and columnist at Ricochet, explains his math, which draws on his work dealing with the AIDS epidemic in the 1980s and ’90s.

    He also discusses why the stimulus plans being floated are unlikely to help the economy in the short run but will cause major problems in the long run, why he thinks local and state governments are overreacting by shutting down businesses and schools, and why he expects the crisis to ease up in a few months, as it already has in the Asian countries hit first.

    Interview by Nick Gillespie. Intro by Meredith Bragg
    Coronavirus Perspective … Richard Epstein … Hoover Institution


    • ApproachingZero

      “Don’t Expect Millions To Die From Coronavirus… such guesses fail to take into account all the actions that are already taking place to contain and suppress the pandemic.”

      “…why he thinks local and state governments are overreacting by shutting down businesses and schools,”

      So, let me get this straight: Fewer people will die because we’re taking precautions, but we’re taking too many precautions. The man sounds addled.

      • BoomToBustMEMBER

        According to a ZH article 8.116 million less Mobile phone users on the network now

        • Is that because they all died?

          I’d have thought that phone usage and internet demand in the age of isolation would be off the dial. Maybe there’s less business being conducted?

        • You need to be a little careful with ZH — there’s as much chaff as there is wheat on that site — normally as a result of a slow news day, which isn’t an issue right now.

          That being said, China, 1.4bn people …. *taps calculator in Honest Government Ads-style* … 8 million people is a mere half of 1% of the population, so …

          • BoomToBustMEMBER

            agreed, I dont believe everything I read, there are also a few other explanations as to why so many users have vanished. We will never know the full extent of what has occured.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      It’s always prudent to get pandemic advice from a conservative libertarian law and economic scholar who promotes neo-liberalism.

      Really, there couldn’t be anyone with a better insight.

      To paraphrase his arguments, it’s not a pandemic if all precautions to prevent a pandemic are put in place. Gawd, what tripe.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Big trouble with school remaining open until the holidays. People take this as being told business as usual. You watch them all hit the beach for two weeks. All those little retirement/holiday towns will be teeming with kids running around infecting the oldies. It will be carnage.

        • MiBo – I actually think the hoi polloi are weeks ahead of Scovid the Fool. That is why supermarkets and chemists are being stripped of product lines. People are preparing for what they have surmised is the inevitable shutdown of major sections of our community. In two weeks time Scovid the Fool will have shut all pubs, eating places, and entertainment areas, all schools and churches will be closed for public use, there will be hundreds of thousands of newly unemployed not yet hooked into the government assistance programs. In those circumstances I just think most people will decide to stay close to their home base.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            I’d love to think that’s true but half of my workplace still thinks it’s bullsh!t and are planning an Easter holiday away. Look at Bondi yesterday. Two girls from work were off to the city last night hoping things would be open and busy.

            Yeah, there’s people getting ready for a shutdown but at a wild guess would say no more than a third of the population.

        • Exactly. Enclosed spaces are much more deadly than open ones, but it’s ok to go to school but we are closing the beach. WTF. This is why half the population don’t think it is serious, and the other half think the government has no idea.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Death city.
        A client of mine about 10 yrs ago closed his engineering business down but his clients only wanted to deal with him so he farmed some of this work to me, He used to come bouncing around full of life. One day he announced he was retiring in Port M.
        Dead within the year.
        How many are just about to die and catch it then counted as corona.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Not supposed to say Dutch anymore, Netherlander. Can’t say Holland either because Holland is a province of The Netherlands. The Gov’t there is making an effort to change this, Bit like calling the whole of Australia Tasmania or Northern Territory. . Someone calling you a Queenslander when you live in Syd.

        • PalimpsestMEMBER

          A tricky one that. Basically I think you are noting that retirement, voluntary or involuntary like now, has always been a risk factor for death. Now we have a new mechanism for speeding that up. One reason I planned to “die in harness”. Hardly anyone I know remained energetic and intellectually sharp once they truly retired. This time around there will be more. After the ’87 crash I remember a couple of high flyers realising their big speculative runs had come to an end, and decided to enjoy their wealth. Several took up cigar smoking. They were all dead within 2-5 years. I don’t blame the cigars as such, I feel it was a form of giving up on the struggle. This time around I’m facing the realisation that I’ve seen the last big run up and crash of my lifetime, and failed to get my put options in place in time. But I want to hang in there. I wish us all well.

        • Boom, forget Dutch or Nederlander, “clog wog” is far easier, not to mention more fun…

      • Cheap holiday houses coming on the market soon, dead vendors can’t take houses with them so are giving them away …..

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          LOL? but I wouldn’t be surprised if happy clappies are promised by their dog that that they can take their OOP and IPs with them, and franking credit “refund” leaners also get to take those as the icing on the cake.

  9. We are sitting on a boatload of cash. I would think that the gov guarantee will hold. But the only alternative is govt bonds short duration? Where do I buy these? Broker? I know they are listed.

    On a personal note I hope all re agents are crushed and that time soon time to hand back the Audi lease and get a night fill job at coles

    • Coup de Whiskey

      I will not be lectured by that corrupt crook:

      Seven years before he was sacked as managing director of Tourism Australia – amid serious concerns about his management practices – Scott Morrison was the subject of criticism in a New Zealand audit report examining his activities as head of NZ’s Office of Tourism and Sport.

      The 1999 report by NZ’s controller and auditor-general examined the December 1998 resignations of two heads of the NZ Tourism Board, as well as payouts to them that were later found to be unlawful. The report criticised Morrison’s role in the lead-up to these events.

      Scott Morrison left NZ’s Office of Tourism and Sport in 2000, a year after the audit report was published and a year before the end of his contract. The reasons for his early departure have never been fully explained.


  10. Auction impact #3 – unfounded speculation welcome.

    When I first posted this on 1 March, the virus outbreak had very little impact on clearance rates, it was still super boomy. As everyone who responded then expected. Last week we moved into the “B” zone.This week?

    Options are –
    A. Minor blip last week, property the safe haven, it’s crazy out there! Buyers are fighting each other with baseball bats over property! Auctions run hot, 77%
    B. Small sign of nerves enters the equation, but still looks pretty boomy, nothing to worry about, 72-76%
    C. Disturbance in the force. 65-72%, Unreported auctions look suspiciously high. Media blames it on the weather. Sydney a gorgeous 25 degrees and clear blue skies. (Far too many people break the 6’ rule on packed beaches and in bars.)
    D. Fear and loathing. Sub 65% clearance rates AND high unreported. Doc Wilson is forced to acknowledge the change in the market and summarises the situation: “This is a healthy outcome in a robust market. It needed to take a breather to prevent it getting over-heated. Rates cuts and stimulus will support the next round of growth.”

    This is for initial Sydney clearance rates, as released by Domain at 6pm.

    I’m going to stick with B for this week.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      How many weeks can I enter before getting kicked out for being wrong and obstinate?

      Voting D until teh virus takes my sorry soul.

    • Core logic reporting clearance rates in the 60’s last weekend, Domain and REA in the 70’s so I am going to go with a solid C for this weekend, D for next weekend and zombie apocalypse by mid winter !

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Yeah fish, it’s a solid C last week and thinking D from now on. I mean who the hell would buy now when it’s guaranteed it will be cheaper the next week.
        What about the other part- for a loan banks need 3 months of payslips, hows that going to go over the next 6 months?

      • Yep exactly. Solid C this week. D within a fortnight (things do slow anyway for Easter).

        Once easter is over it will be online only virtual auctions, zero accountability, fck knows what the reporting will be, they could make up anything. But the reality will be low as hell.

        • Reverse Transcriptase

          There has been near zero accountability for some time when it comes to auctions.

          • Yeah but at least until now you’ve been able to turn up and see that the other bidders probably exist.

    • will be D. we are in panic mode already. if we land on C or B it will be because any bid was accepted. In that case check med prices and you’ll see massive falls compared to last week.

    • Not to be pedantic but you should really be describing it as a “disturbance in the farce” – as that’s what our property obsession is.

      As for choosing outcomes, is there a prize involved?

    • PalimpsestMEMBER

      Love this. Always good to guess out loud and make a fool of oneself in public. So humbling. My totally data free guess is about 63% putting me in “C”. There are extra properties being listed by those that want to rush for the exit, versus buyers that have spent too long getting to this point they don’t want to back off. The wild card is the extra listings, requiring advanced massaging of the initial clearance rate to keep it higher. The pictures of crowds on Bondi show that it hasn’t got through to many yet, but others are losing their jobs. This weekend will be the turning point so it’s going to be fascinating to see the outcome.

      One strategy for younger people is to hold off, mingle as much as possible at the beach and pub, then visit the GrandParents to give them a fond hug before isolation is mandated. Later in the year one could buy using the inheritance at a better price.

    • I’m going to guess that Sydney will be 62% and Melbourne 59% this week.

      But if Bondi Beach is anything to go by. Then 70% for both. Lol.

    • I’m wondering how many sales will settle in 60 – 90 days vs. walk away from deposits. About all a sale at the moment guarantees the vendor is the deposit!

      • Yes, I’ve wondered that too. The potential for job and / or income loss which could occur in the settlement period is unlike anything we have ever seen before. How many of those people buying at auction today will be able to pay their mortgage in a few months time?

    • Just wait till the Corona infested deceased estates hit the market. Free hazmat suit with every bidding card.

    • And we are into the fear and loathing stage, initial result is 64% –

      Bragging rights today go to Mining Bogan (!!), Niko, Popcod (on an each way bet), and Gavin. Well done folks.

      New scale required from here I think. Wo won’t be seeing anything in the A-C category for a while.

      • Just had Realestate.com.au email me with their version of the results. They claim a 68% clearance rate. What’s the catch? Well it is based on 265 results reported from 412 scheduled auctions, out of a total of 844 scheduled auctions. Big risk of FONGO kicking in here

    • Mate. Most of those jobs are unskilled grunt work. This Coronavirus thing is going to massively accelerate the automation of almost all of them.

      A few exceptions of course, scientists, teachers, nurses, doctors.

      The one percent ain’t giving up that easily.

      • That you think its unskilled shows your ignorance and that automation has its own down sides.

        Of course Capital only cares about power, how do you think we got into this mess.

        • WTF Skip. Street sweepers and cleaners and shelf stackers are unskilled. You can teach any able bodied adult to do it in a few days or weeks.

          What are you on about?

          My original comment was not disagreeing with you. It was agreeing, and taking the next logical step.

          Still. Why was I even expecting a sensible reply? I’m off to drink coffee in the sunshine.

          • Just for starters I hope your not in a position to run or dictate policy wrt to these jobs.

            I suggest for you read an old book DIRT CHEAP by Elisabeth Wynhausen for a more critical observation. I can only imagine you using some twisted blending of Fordism and Taylorism when pondering labour jobs.

            Always remember the white shirt I saw telling the Mexican labour he was sweeping to slow, even took the broom out of his hand and started sweeping at speed. That was till the dust cloud screwed with his breathing and all the stock in the warehouse was covered in dust. You know all that mind think about task time being even into hundreds or thousands of units … chortle …

          • No isms, it’s just about whether someone can learn the job quickly and (for better or for worse) be easily replaced by another person who is more compliant.

          • The data does not support your view on the skill alone level, not to mention what a society is.

          • The data does not support your view on the skill alone level, not to mention what a society is.

            What data ? How long does it take a fresh recruit checkout operator, shelf stacker or GPS-following-driver to reach, say, 95% of the productivity of a “veteran” ?

            The argument here is not:
            * that unskilled jobs aren’t shite
            * that unskilled jobs aren’t important
            * that unskilled jobs aren’t hard work
            * that unskilled jobs shouldn’t pay more
            * that unskilled jobs don’t require any skills at all.

            It’s that people can learn those skills in a short period of time with little to no pre-existing specialist knowledge, and the consequences that has when the world is run by market fundamentalists.

          • That moment Smithy comes in to wreck Captain Word Salad.
            Harkens back to the moment in Jurassic Park where the tyrannosaurus comes in to attack the raptors while the people are just trying to get off the damn island.

        • Someone ElseMEMBER

          Don’t be an ignoramus and conflate book smarts as the only smarts. Manual skills are incredibly valuable.

          How many ‘skilled’ office workers can actually make or service something real?

          If only the mystical amazing automation would come along and I wouldn’t have to put my people in harm’s way, but the level of skill inherent in an experienced, observant, dextrous operator is beyond most office/academic-based people’s understanding, let alone technology.

          All manual labour is skilled labour. I know who I’d back to survive an apocalypse.

          • With respect, not all manual labour is skilled. A lot of it is. A lot is very highly skilled indeed. But a lot of it isn’t. This should not be a hard concept.

            Tradespeople – skilled.
            Cleaner – unskilled.

            Yes of course you could say that holding a broom is a “skill” but it’s not a skill that is hard to learn. Putting on your shoes is a skill too, but that does not make every person wearing shoes a skilled worker. Sweeping a room is an unskilled task.

            And some office jobs are basically unskilled too, although not as many as in the past, as computers and automation have already done away with most of them. This is not a white collar / blue collar issue.

            The difference between skilled and unskilled relates to how long it takes to learn, whether the “skills” are easily acquired by just about anybody or needs years of learning and application.

            If you can learn the job in a week, it’s not skilled.

          • The point is not that “unskilled” labour doesn’t require “skills”, it’s that those skills can be learnt to an extremely competent level in a (relatively) very short period of time without any specialist existing knowledge.

          • Fyi cleaning requires extensive knowledge of cleaning products and chemicals. vehicle detailing is quite a skill. I’m still mastering… Not that I don’t agree re skilled vs non skilled Labor. Although I think skilled is a misnomer here. All jobs require a level of skill just different degrees (pun intended).

          • haroldusMEMBER

            I’ve just refretted a 30 year old Fender strat with maple neck, now setting up.

            Looks great (black Fender Japan 56 reissue from early 90s).

    • Quoting a Corbynite there skip – and look what happened to him – tossed on the garbage heap. Most of the jobs listed there are service roles ie. paid for by productive endeavour. Back in the day most of those roles would’ve been unpaid and fulfilled by individuals motivated enough to perform them – or paid for privately by individuals who could afford to have someone else do them. Of course, once society became rich enough, they were farmed out by Govt and paid for by taxes on the productive classes. See how this works? If you don’t produce anything of value first then you don’t get the services of all these wonderful people.

      • You mean sorted by Corp media Dom w/ a side of neoliberal labour machinations.

        Don’t know what your banging on about in this case considering Thatchers stripping the guts out of productive capacity and turning it into a financial hub with tax haven flows. Then some grumble about taxation of productive people.

        That’s not to forget none would be doing much without the state, hence why they wanted control over it.

        • Whatever’s paying the taxes is another debate entirely — the fact is someone needs to be paying taxes in order to keep these service jobs paid for. Money doesn’t grow on trees.

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      When I was at High school and doing Economics, I constantly failed exams.
      Given a list of occupations to put in descending order of importance, I put road worker 1st. and got a fail
      Eventually my teacher asked me why I put road worker at the top.
      My reply was “If that person does not do his job, no one else will be able to do theirs.”
      Still got a fail.

      • Garbage collector. If they don’t work for a month the city is on its knees. If bankers don’t work does anyone notice?

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          Road workers trump garbo’s.
          No roads, no garbage truck.
          I should have been given an A for my high school exams

          • You idiot!!!! The answer is ALWAYS Lawyers and RE agents. If you haven’t learned that you truly are thick.

  11. Several statements overnight from US pollies show that they are going to try to blame China for the slaughterhouse that is going to result from their inept response to the virus threat. Isolationism in spades coming and we will be in a bad spot to be making such a choice…….no one else will buy our commodities in such bulk.

    • At least we do grow plenty of food. And a lot of our agriculture is heavily mechanised (not all but a lot). So we can still run it with disease control in place.

      We might just live through this.

      • After having this thing for couple of weeks I am more certain that it is a mutation of the vicious flu we had in early January…..so already the second time around………this could go on for a couple of years in a low intensity way after the deluge.

        Buy copper for the long run…..I know that first chance I get all our door handles and light switches and toilet seats are being changed out for special copper surfaces


        • and SIlver.
          So AMI and NCM will be the darlings of the ASX. Bought few in both with 2 year time line.. Mainly because Cu will be needed in EVs and both produce lot of gold.

          • I said 2 year timeline. EU’s fiscal stimulus will be all about building EVs infrastructure and that would spell the end of passenger car combustion engine in EU.

          • PalimpsestMEMBER

            @Janet, if one is buying a new car, now might be the last chance to buy it at pre-AUD collapse prices. In local currency it might hold its value in two years time against the price of new imports. While also acknowledging that the second hand market is about to take a steep dive over the next year. New car sales will drop off the cliff both because of new pricing when we don’t make any here, and because both business and recreational driving is about to take a very big hit, reducing demand. Also the first stimulus package will bring forward any remaining purchase capacity. A 100% write-off is something I don’t think I can walk away from. But who will buy a new car in July or August? where will demand come from?
            As for EV’s, they have had the advantage of lower running costs, especially when owned over the longer term. I use the past tense because oil prices look desperately low, even with a low AUD. It’s hard to tell where EV’s will be in 2 years. Past 2 years, they will be the main game between Brisbane to Melbourne and possibly Adelaide with the current super charging network, and within cities. Off the beaten path will depend on more roll-out and EV’s rated for towing are still fairly rare and expensive.

            The counter to more EV’s in Australia in the near term is that any new vehicle purchase will face competition from a large second hand market of ICE vehicles. A lot of families will need to drop that second vehicle. And new car prices will produce profound sticker shock. Interesting times.

          • Yep if someone insists of buying a new car, right now would be the time. Dealers are already desperate and you’ll get a great price if you play hardball.

          • i just want to clear something here. I did not invest in these companies on the basis of what happens to the car market in Australia. Like it or not we are too small market to matter in any equation when working out global demand for any commodity. From supplier point of view it is the opposite for lot of commodities.
            If Trump loses in Nov then Cu and Ni will go much much higher than many think. Right now I only take in consideration that EU and Japan to start moving to EV with China doing it to some degree.
            If covid19 triggers additional demand for Cu then copper may become the metal of the 21st century.

          • PalimpsestMEMBER

            @Niko, yes, sorry – didn’t mean to derail the conversation from your key point, by considering where the car market will be in Australia only. The International move to EV’s appears pretty locked in now, and I note your interest in other uses for Cu in particular. Actually the move to EV’s is way more disruptive than I expected. Germany is quite worried. They have specialist suppliers for ignition systems, air filters, transmission components, carburetors and turbos – all of which are going under.

          • No Arthur they wouldn’t do it and I wasn’t too eager since I wasn’t coughing really. My wife would be at bigger risk without me that me giving her the virus even though she has multiple co- morbidities. I was ready to shift into one of the sheds in the back yard if i started to cough. Thank god for the Chinese blogs that taught me how religious you have to be to stop family contagion. They told me that it would be cruel and unusual punishment to take my wife bush, too many problems and the head quack said however bad it was they would still be able to offer effective pain management…..not so well in the bush.

            I do believe the stories that an antibody test is now available and will try to get one when they become available……..I think antibodies stay for a long time with this one.

          • PalimpsestMEMBER

            Stainless steel – what? Plastic is disappointing but not as much of a surprise as SSteel.

          • Copper and Silver have anti-micro properties. Stainless is unreactive and inert.
            I’m curious about their impact on viral loading though. Gram negative bacteria are most impacted by these materials, but virus might not be with their protein shell, similar to the beam positive bacteria. Interested if anyone knows more detail.

        • Revolt.

          Relax. There are none capable of invading us. China can afford to keep buying it and that’s a lot easier than fighting. The others are not capable. We are not actually a particularly soft target.

          • “We are not actually a particularly soft target.”
            lol. Are you serious. How would we stop the chinese if they came a knockin?

          • They are not about to sail all the way past a bunch of softer, easier food producing countries (Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, etc etc etc) just to steal our wheat. They will buy it off us. We will still sell to them. We export huge amounts of food, we’ll be fine.

          • MountainGuinMEMBER

            I agree Aust is fine, but 100 percent think agricultural nations sharing boarders with any hungry nations w decent armed forces should be nervous. Armed forces could easily be deployed under the excuse of helping neighbours with their logistics. May increase fighting between fishing fleets too. Would the rest of the world and the USA jump up to stop this if nations have their own corona issues?
            Doent have to be China, but their are prob African and sth american potential situations too. I’m not saying its likely, but if corona impacts are long lived, such things can open up.

          • you are spot on except:
            “..just to steal our wheat” – we actually imported wheat over the last 12 months. we do export when conditions allow but we also import.

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            Do not forget or under estimate the Climate Calamity.
            with a few more summers like this last one , we may be struggling to feeed the nation.

          • Thanks Niko I had not realised that but it checks out. https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/11113320

            The basic position is that we export over half our agricultural produce under normal conditions. So we are more than self sufficient. But yes in a severe drought or where imported fertilisers are hard to come by, we might produce a lot less. I reckon we’d still be ok for total calories but the variety and quality might be well down.

          • we’ll still be ok if we more than half immigration – I am thinking long term future for the country – past my time on earth. My main concern with mass immigration is that at some point we will need to start importing food. Especially if climate change causes more permanent drought in areas that are currently considered productive.

      • Unless we export it all… A friend is in the meat business and said that since the dollar dropped dramatically in the last week + panic buying in the US everything not already booked to Coles & Wollies is being exported for top dollar.

    • and to make things worse we forgot how to make things. lol
      no manufacturer will come here as market’s too small. unless they are promised protection which is exactly what LIBS refused to offer to the car industry.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        It’s not so much we forgot, its that we don’t have the plant or facilities.
        To make PPE, cutters & sewing machines are needed. Along with controls systems & (custom) software. There is no chance of ramping up fabric production in a few months, but that’s needed too.
        There are only a handful of tool makers in the country, and certainly no one that could make CNC machines and the like.
        It could be ramped up with ‘small industry’ grants. Now would be the time to do that.
        A mate of mine has the Mirage III hydraulic line tooling preserved in a shed. He’s hoping to repurpose it. It cost millions of dollars to make & he bought it for the cost of removal.
        Much of the industrial capacity built up in the 50s, 60s & 70s was literally given away.

        • grants won’t be enough. for anyone to invest in manufacturing plant here our Gov will have to guarantee them market share and massive tax concessions. Australian market is too small while today’s manufacturing plants cost north of $500m and go well over $1bn. LIBS also created massive mistrust (after the car industry fiasco) and most manufacturers will be super careful when sniffing an Australian adventure.
          Small scale manufacturing will spring but that’s not going to be enough to revive the economy. Even small business will need protection from cheap imports.
          biggest problem will be the know-how. We simply lost this ingredient.

  12. Arthur Schopenhauer

    My very conservative LNP campaigning baby boomer in-laws have lost faith in the LNP. They have been barnacles on the good ship LNP since Whitlam.

    The next 6 months will transform our politics.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Indeed, I suspect quite a number of rusted-on LNPers (but not my brother and sister-in-law who have also outsourced their info gathering/thought filtering to AJ and Sky News after Dark) are going to have lightbulb moments in the next few months, as they realise that we are going in to the valley of death under the self-claimed best-at-everything managers?

      • “Not though the soldier knew
        Someone had blundered.
        Theirs not to make reply,
        Theirs not to reason why,
        Theirs but to do and die.
        Into the Valley of Death they rode…”

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      On the subject of irresponsible politicians, the Brisbane local election will be a mass spreading event. It needs to be conducted by postal voting only. (Online would be better but not enough time to setup).

      • Got a letter from the AEC telling me how important voting is and that after careful consideration they have decided I need to stand in line with virus carriers. The application for postal voting arrived one day after online registrations closed. Sent a complaint…..crickets….

        • Yea was told we have to bring and use our own pencils ….. but I managed to get postal vote in place

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          Now is the moment to strike a blow against the Machine.
          DON’T VOTE
          Voting only encourages them.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Off memory, the UK being light years ahead of Straya on the ScoVID-19 curve recently postponed ALL its soon-due local government elections for A YEAR.

      But, Straya’s different?

  13. Also, at what point do we enact “The Purge”, like in the movie. Because, you know, there’s this list I have…..

    • If you’re willing to get CV and break isolation, you could cause quite a bit of damage just walking around. Visiting old people’s homes etc..

      It’s tailor made for terrorism.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Nah, ISIS already warned their suicide workers not to go to Europe because WuFlu.

        • That’s what they wanted you to think. They are probably wondering the streets of Lombardy as we speak.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Oh c’mon, surely people are going to notice if they’re being licked by a mussie.

    • Cambodia had a purge. ( What was it? 25% of the population killed and abject poverty for the survivors?)
      That’s what would happen – ‘we’ would all end up eating each other….

    • M.Bogan, you will be lucky to get much a response from this crowd.
      We don’t do Evidence Based Decision Making here in AUS.
      We’ve had decades of making choices to maximise electoral margin.
      So if it wedges Labor, then we might do it – assuming most benefit goes
      to the Have It Alls.
      Support for my idea? Just look around.
      We are the White Trash of the Pacific (identified rather early on by Mr LKY)

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        i think you copy-pasted into the wrong site. This is MB – that looks like it was written for the comments section of SMH or perhaps the Australian.

        This site is well aware of / highly critical of exactly what Scotty has and has not done about WuFlu (and bushfires before that etc etc)

  14. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    Just want to remind everyone that while Morrison keeps infecting the plebs via pleb schools and not shutting the borders for 6 weeks, his kids have been moved to Canberra and NOT going to SCHOOL.

  15. Is it in too bad taste to start a weekly death toll sweep?

    Everyone today picks what they think the global death toll will be by the time of the first post for next weekends links. All bids have to be in by midnight tonight.

    Current official death toll is 11,365. By tonight it will be about 13,000 I’d say.

    Put bids on under this post. I’ll start off: 34,381.

  16. if anyone interested to learn CISCO and wants to play with real devices rather than packet tracer let me know. I am keen to sell my gear as it collects dust.. have few routers, switches and ASA.
    all of them work 100% so you can also use them in production or at home if you want to go extreme.

  17. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    “In Australia, the federal health department….that can convert manufacturing plants from other uses to make ventilators, test kits, masks and other medical supplies”

    Haha. We’re in good hands. Straya LNP and Labor.

    Gillard….”we do not make widgets”

    We import welfare and Medicare liabilities instead.

  18. Wellie I have to paint my youngest daughters room for a surprise when she gets back from Banff mid next week, sad really, just promoted to asst mgr.

    Anywho carry on anguishing about the demise of some tokens and the state of political leadership based on the output of some wonky ideological mythos payed for and pushed by anti democratic corporatists.

    Lmmao … how many would prefer Rudd at this moment …. just glad I came to Oz years ago … how it pans out in the land of freedom will echo in history moving forward.

    • Prefer none of them …………..KRuDD was probably as bad as Scummo … cardboard cutout …. Scotty from marketing and the glossy, teflon cardboard cutout …. fitting

    • Where were you before you came to Oz years ago?
      In the Bush? Skippyeee Skippyeee the Bush kangaroo

  19. few weeks ago I sold bunch of RRL shares and I thought I stuffed up with the date by selling 1 day too early and missed on their dividends. Just got (checked leterbox today) letter saying $2k were deposited.. fully franked. yeah..

      • Those peeps get the franking CREDITS, which are extra cash.

        Fully franked just means the full company tax has been paid on them so you don’t have to. Still nice. Every shareholder gets this benefit.

  20. Two young families at my sons schools have booked their exit from Australia, husband just laid off, no prospect of reemployment in the short term and not eligible for benefits. Will break lease and run……. They won’t be the only ones.

    • Must be Kiwis. The irony; Aussies here will get welfare, medical etc during this time, but Kiwis in Oz? Nope. I do believe thought that you’ll be supporting those from China, India,the UK etc that are permanent residents. But again, not us.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          25 years ago maybe.

          The Coalition’s dismemberment of the social security system has also shut down most of the reciprocal arrangements with NZ.

      • Well most of the “Kiwis” I’ve met in Australia are all from bumf*ckestan.
        NZ is just a transit lane for the world waiting to get in to Australia.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        I quite agree Janet.
        Australia’s treatment of Kiwi’s living here is shameful and unwaranted.
        Of all the people in the world we share such a common history and culture.
        NZer’s are family .

    • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

      What nationality out of interest Stomper ?.

      Could be Dubai all over again…..

    • AMA WA head Andrew Miller has been very vocal in demanding school closures and interstate border restrictions to limit the potential damage. Just another example of medical experts being completely ignored by the government.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Talking of medical “experts”, will ScoMo’s CMO eventually have his lightbulb moment? Remember just a week ago, handshakes were ok, but then that became advisable not to unless within one’s family (because by definition, that’s ok as the virus will only affect the family – LOL?)?

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          Scotty’s CMO is being told what to say. He is smart enough and seeing enough of the data – the decisions being made and communicated are politically motivated, not from a lack of information or understanding

    • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

      As long as the iron ore mining operations stay open then that’s all that matters.

      Nothing else generates income for WA apart from grain. Lobsters are already toast (mmmm lobsters on toast).

  21. Do what I say, not as I do – Morrison evades questions on whether his children are attending school


    Leaders should lead by example. Morrison is adamant all children should be at school during #coronavirus. But when asked about his own children, just says “they are enrolled” and “as a father, I think kids should be at school”. Are they at school, or not at school?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Is he saying the missus pulled the kids from school against his will?

      Edit: No, I want to change my response. What if his kids are still in school but he’s such a pathalogical liar that he can’t tell the truth with a simple yes or no? His first thought is to give everything a cover of confusion through word play?

      • a lady that says “YES”, is (s)he really a lady?

        a politician that says “NO”, is he really a poitician?

        in this case, a snot blob, not a politician, patholiar.


      • happy valleyMEMBER

        And the gossip (so called by him) that he tried to get Hillsong Houston an invite to the White House, that three months later became a mumbled “yes I did” admission as an aside in a presser?

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Ive had many people ask me why the schools are still open.
      I repeat what I read somewhere here on MacroBusiness that if they can keep the foreign university students still going to classes up until April 1st there will be no refunds on their course fees.
      Is that correct?

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        yes Ermo. 31st March is the last day for students to withdraw and not being liable for full fees.

        1st April, they are committed, Unis can lock in that revenue and imo, all bets are off for Australia

    • wow, one more bridge in the RE portfolio?

      tailored stories are exactly that: stories..
      Chinese have dealt with virus the way they know and evidence tells it was the best on record.
      italy is set to surpas Wuhan mortality and in population percentage ratio it is alredy surpassed China.
      whatever chinks commie party did wrt cv19 was right and in the best intetest of the people.

        • what does a nominal number matter?
          trends is what matters and numbers cooking can only go so much before it spills the truth.
          Chinese numbers are subduing and trends is what matters the most.

          • I agree with both of you..
            My view is Chinese numbers are one very big BS. I really believe that both, infections and deaths are much much higher and that China still gets infections, new and re-infections.
            But at same time I am sure they wrestled control back and are on top of the situation. So you are right trend wise they have it under control.
            Time will tell if China stays in control once they open up more and people start mixing in the public transport.
            And yes, I share same view like we should have done what China did – in absence of vaccine or other cure it’s the only course if action.

  22. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    ************Finally some fact based good news:*****************


    Something bad must be happening guys, she’s seen a dip:
    “She said she’s “definitely noticed a dip in people booking hotels and Airbnbs” – she can tell, in part, because folks can reserve such accommodations through affiliate links on her blog and Instagram feed. (She gets a cut of the booking amount when they do.)”

    Perhaps getting a new job and stacking coles’ shelves in a bikini is the new “Insta star” blogger activity

  23. Just sitting in barbers at the moment waiting for a haircut. The consensus view seems to be that CV is just a bad flu and the odds are in your favour.

    We are so are so very farked.

    • Buy some Wahl clippers and do your haircut yourself. No way I would be going to the barbers. How many customers are they in close proximity to every day?

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      I will only get a haircut now with a mask. Or have my wife do it at home.
      That’s it

      • That’s what I did last week.

        Went for a drive this morning. Canberra is still operating with its head in the sand, business as usual, plenty of sport (tennis, so admittedly rather more distance than some sports) going on, went to an open home (sat in the car and went in at the end when no one was left but before that they had a fair parade through).

        Nine cases here now. Still two weeks off panic here I think. Might get through to end of term…!

    • yesterday I promoted my son as my personal barber. 0.5mm all over – can’t go wrong fckn.

  24. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    By the way, SCOMO’s “stop it, just stop it, it’s un-Australian” voice echos in my head with so much anger.

    His government’s non-action when Iran, Italy, US and UK was exploding is the sole reason Australians are panicked, and he thinks he has the power to get people to “stop it” protecting your families – What a Phycho sycophant!!!

    • This is pretty good. Makes lots of sense. Buying time at this point is key to allow medical measures to get ahead of the curve.

    • Guy keeps getting quotes, but has no qualifications and no expertise

      He makes this statement in bold large font

      “If 5% of your cases require intensive care and you can’t provide it, most of those people die. As simple as that.“

      He never goes on to ask: so what


      3% of ventilated patients in Wuhan survived
      97% died regardless of being ventilated

      Would ECMO make a difference. Maybe, don’t know
      But this Pueyo fool certainly doesn’t either

      • The bits you missed out- 81% mortality for ventilated patients in another study. These were among the earliest patients. And you need ICU beds for ECMO in any case.
        Word on the street is there were quite a number going on ECMO in Paris in the last week.
        This situation is abnormal and I am not sure what point you are trying to make. Let it rip?

  25. What does that old dude with the geocities style website reckon at the moment? I think he’s a contributor to ZH – can someone link me?

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      brilliant – thanks – will be sharing with work colleagues that are still persisting with this #justtheflu

    • We have been watching Dr John all week. Him, Dr Andrew Miller of the AMA here in WA and the podcast of the emergency doctors in Italy are what really kicked us into gear. Kids are out of school and we are basically in personal lockdown

    • yep. he is thinking same way as rest of us. I follow him on Twitter and he is concerned at how things are developing here.

  26. Have been looking at (maybe to buy one) small places around East Kew (3102). Went to an auction this morning …


    No real bids, just a single vendor bid of 1.125M. The indicated selling range was 1.13-1.23M so this was the first in ages (apart from real dumps) that didn’t sell for over the range maximum and most of those sold recently went for more than 100K over the top of the range.

    For this area this is a massive turn around. Hardly any people, no Chinese.

    • Did you get lost in the vast yard between the gate and the front door 🙁 Agents hyperbole.

      • Did speak to the agent afterwards, he told me enthusiastically money was cheap now. I replied it was a pity the ASX crash had wiped out so much of it.

        • lol – chunt – I bet you enjoyed that.. well.. I did reading it now. can imagine what the agent was thinking.. lol

    • Ahh…memories. Used to live in Kew, back when it was a sleepy unfashionable suburb. Actually lived in Studley Park (sub-region od Kew which is near the river and very nice). Payed $85 rent per week for a 3 bed place with lots of garden and a garage. It was a great place to live back then. Like countryside in the city. Anyway, the point of all this is to allow me to insert this terrible one…

      Studley Park is near the city, East Kew is farqkew…

      • Fck me, that’s hardcore. Like war time. Those medical staff are going to be rooted by the time this subsides.

        Morrison and our witless CMO need an urgent dose of reality – even though I fear it’s too late now.

        Several younger people in that video too by the look of things – 40s/50s

          • Yep, think about the dilemma for them – is it an option to just resign right now and get as far away from this as possible? Morally, not really. It’s like deserting your unit in time of war. These guys and gals just need to keep plugging away and hope for the best. They are essentially trapped. I wish them all the best I really do.

          • Yup. Told my sis to just not accept any more shifts if it gets too hard. Shes young , got some savings and no debt. Why would you get yourself PTSD.. or get the govt to pay you per hour for what lifetime therapist will cost you.

    • It beggars belief that a lot of us are still working from the office, particularly in state government.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Dude ( or anyone else working with the Commonwealth or State public sectors)

        Can you outline what workplace preventative measures have been

        1. exhorted from the top of your organisation
        2. adopted in your local workplaces

        I have been related 3 spectacular fails from the Commonwealth public service. This includes one worksite where the average age of the permanent staff is over 60, where they have to literally handle (and hand to one another) cardboard, where the seating arrangements are less than 1.5 metres, and where there is no organised and repeating cleaning of common surfaces, and (incredibly) one site where they have been putting up cardboard partitions between closely situated desks.

        I have had emails beamed to me last night indicating a circumstance where one workplace health and safety committee man (the first aid guy) sent an email to management 3 weeks ago, and was told to wait for a ‘Whole of government approach’ and where nothing had happened until yesterday. He spoke with his chief yesterday and agreed to whip up a roster of people to clean in his workplace, which he did. Then higher level management put the kybosh on any sort of organised roster and told his chief to countermand the local workplace initiative and do nothing but to tell people to wash their hands.

        I have beamed them to an ABC Journalist. He is getting in touch with some politicos to get a response.

        This issue is going to blow up I suspect.

        If anyone has similar things happening in their workplaces and wants someone to get them some sort of consideration can you beam the basic details to [email protected] (and not [email protected] as that is not me) and I will potentially pass them on.

        • State heath here

          We are doing some really hardcore planning and risk management for non clinical . Including senior management (my level) and exec

        • I work in a state department. Very little is being done – have sent emails raising concerns with no response, office conditions make it impossible to keep 1.5m apart, no soap offered, no change in office cleaning of shared places or of high contact surfaces. Only messaging has been generic broadcasts that do not address staff concerns.

    • Thanks Gunna.

      This is how I’m sharing it with others to try to get them to take it in. (This may work best on QLDers, which is my target audience.)

      “Dear …,

      Below is a report from Italy by Sky News. It highlights how catastrophic it is there.

      The reason I think that it is important to watch this is because of something the journalist Chris Masters said. When talking about his report on the corrupt QLD government of Sir Joh, he said that the story would only have worked on TV. He could not have printed it. This is because it was the images of the brothels and the bribes and how widespread and open it was that turned his constituency against him. Until they saw it with their own eyes they could not fathom its scope or could find a way to say “That happens everywhere. They are overstating the problem to try to bring him down.”

      With that out of the way, here is the clip. It is in a hospital that is trying to treat the people that covid-19 has seriously affected.
      Hopefully it is seen by people who have the ability to shut things down in Australia and they decide to do so.”

    • haroldusMEMBER

      gunna can we have the supplementary links, this is too many comments to keep track of

      and can you hassle MB to sort the comment system

      • Wahwahwah, stop trying to suck up to Gunna for more links so you can try and be first. Looser! Im onto you!

  27. happy valleyMEMBER

    If you haven’t read it, there is a vomit-inducing piece by our Chris Joye in the AFR today lauding Scotty from Marketing’s, Josh Rainbowberg’s, the RBA happy clappies’ and APRA probably happy clappies’ efforts over the past few weeks.

    Oh and he does throw in that he has given advice to the RBA happy clappies in recent times.

    Is he still long in hybrids ?

  28. Fishing72MEMBER

    Full retard interpretation: False flag operation by China used to usher in a One World Government- which would be as independent from China as the WHO.

    Single global currency introduced. Global censorship and human surveillance implemented. Basically Davos man colluding with the Chinese overlords and taking the CCP playbook worldwide. The past decade of imposed multiculturalism was used to delegitimise and demoralise Western nations . Same with class / gender / race conflicts used to confuse and distract populace .

    This explains why China has been busting a gut to increase the spread of their diaspora in recent times and why the CCP was adamant that this diaspora be allowed to return to their new colonies with the disease. Why else would the CCP be insistent that students etc be allowed to return to Oz and that border controls be relinquished ?

    The organised Chinese food hoarders depleting supermarkets is another arm of the ice/ fentanyl destabilising force in Western nations ….reverse opium indignity.

    Scummo is compliant He is providing a thin veneer of marketing veiled as actions to combat the spread of virus. No genuine leader could possibly be that inept !

    Chinese warships back in Australia within 6 months. Initially guided as protecting Chinese interests – if they could be bothered with the ruse at all – and then they never leave. AKA USA in Afghanistan.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Yep – we all need to go long binoculars to make sure that we can see the warships coming and have a few spare rolls of TP put aside, because we will need them – if we’re still breathing, that is.

  29. Ronin8317MEMBER

    1022 cases in Australia now. We have gone beyond 1000.

    Next weekend will be 5000, and the weekend after will be 20k. By then there will be no more ICU places in all of Australia.

    • Correct, the only way that Australian’s can grasp exponential growth is by explaining it in terms of house price growth. Just remind them that every 7 years prices double. But coronavirus is similar except it’s every 7 days.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Very optimistic Ronin.

      They are not going to be able to test for this but the math says over 10,000.

      1.45^7 x 1022

      As the numbers increase, the daily infection rate converges on 1.5. Without lockdown today, that’s what it’s going to be.

      No lockdown visible.

      Best case, 15% of cases are confirmed.

      In 2 weeks we’d be at over 100,000 cases. (But, because it’s spreading unchecked and we are not testing local transmission we’ll be at 100,000 unconfirmed cases in 7 days.)

      Healthcare collapses in 14 to 21 days.

      What a bunch of selfish dumb chunts our government is.

      There will be sweet FA of an economy at the end of this.

      Chain them to the sandstone at Point Bennelong.

      • short of crystal ball, this level of certainty is improbable.
        It is on par with anualising house gains etc.
        i will agree that given the exposure to Chinese travellers, it appear as a miracle that Aus was not making Italy look as mild case and we should lock out whilst it is still not as bad. Panic dynamics will not help

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          chinese travellers, italians (including the ferrari F1 team), loads and load of americans plus of course 5 cruise ships and counting

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          There is no panic.

          I have simply mapped the numbers from pre-shutdown Wuhan & Italy onto Australia’s current cases.

          1. We have NO local transmission testing.
          2. The daily increase is between 1.4 and 1.5 from the pre-shutdown data out of Wuhan & Italy.
          3. The math is very simple, because we have current examples and data.

          The outcome is known. The numbers are known. Australia’s low ICU beds is known.

          Pretty simple facts. Pretty confronting.

    • last few days don’t look exponential in Australia at all (see my post below). Number of new cases is barely growing.

      these are still low numbers so testing capacity cannot yet be blamed for this

      I will be worried only if we see numbers of new cases repeatedly doubling in a day or two

    • “Statistician Megan Higgie, from James Cook University, estimates that when Australia has 44,580 infected patients, our ICU beds will be full, assuming they will all be taken up by coronavirus patients.

      She believes that will mean we could run out of ICU beds in early April.

      But because not all beds will be taken up by coronavirus – with people from car accidents and heart attacks still needing them – she said the date would be even sooner.”


  30. went to Woolies to buy fruit and few things to add up to the stock.. From now on I will never make fun of any person with Asian background. Yes, I know many don’t have any manners but there are plenty Wogs from European background and Aussies that fall in that category. What I noticed was, only people from Asian background were wearing face masks.
    On the other hand Wogs and Aussies who are also the main hoarders in my area doing shopping with their kids running around bumping into people and after shopping is done all outside Woolies seating and having coffees and ice cream for the kids.. all less than 1m from each-other.
    Maybe this virus started in Asia but can’t blame Asia for our ignorance and stupidity. I literary had to keep moving away from people who randomly keep walking towards me. Only Asians were making effort and helping to keep distance from each other.

    And yes, I was one of the fools not wearing face mask. But at least I did not seat down for a coffee rubbing shoulders with strangers.
    I think we are done.. my call is we make Italy look like child play.

      • i know that mate. And I did notice they used generic and thought of that. But at least they make an effort. Or in case they may have it at least they are making an effort not to spread it. Coffee shops inside the shopping centre have tables that are literary 2m apart max so when people spread the chairs they are 1/2 apart from each other. Kids running everywhere. fck me. But yes, morons accumulated 3 year supply of TP.

      • 》The myth about ‘facemask being effective’ is a lie used by the Chinese authority to stop people infecting others.《

        well, you just proved it was effective.
        though in another direction. effect is the same
        tomayto – tomatoh

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        The biggest protection you get from a normal facemask is that it will prevent you from touching your face all the time. It’s not insignificant (assuming you are concurrently washing your hands frequently, etc).

    • I went to my local cafe for lunch and sat outside. It felt like an incredibly risky thing to do though. But for me it’s all about minimal contact with others. Not total lack of contact.

      I am lucky in that I have a nature reserve behind me. I can walk the dog in there and not see anyone else.

      I don’t have a face mask because like TP it’s all sold out.

      • look, in some areas it is possible to live semi-normal life. people are more aware and will apply common sense but in lower end of town it is scary. These are brain-dead people – Sydney Southwest and Sydney West hold the worst of the worst the world can offer – wogs and aussies with absolutely no brains in their heads.
        btw – Active wear is a must when doing CV spreading activity in Woolies.

        • Oh also at my near by woolies there were big x marks for people to stand on at the checkout to keep the distance , plus the cancelled 2 points with reason of social distancing

      • Box of 20 p2s for ya.1 oz gold

        But srsly – some here thought it was paranoid buying these 8 weeks ago (not you ).

        Want me to send you a few – can spare a few

    • Dad went shopping yesterday. I think we need to get to an acceptance that that was the last time we went shopping for a long time. Trips to the Post Office only to collect the mail, or walks down the beach (we are outside of major metro areas). Brother and SIL in NYC got out to their house in rural Connecticut (they’ve had it a year, it has been a huge money pit and they had to prep when everyone else did). They had to buy a chainsaw one day and do some final prep another day last week but they are no saying no more leaving their property. It’s time for social distancing to evolve into lock down.

      • hey Poppy …. they got their guns & ammo organised???

        we left the US 21 January and have cancelled all plans for a return until at least 2 flu cycles (nth & sth hemisphere) have passed ….

        It’s going to get ugly there once the niggly bears spread beyond their usual haunts …

        • Dunno about that. I’ll have to ask and I’ll let you know. Lil bro does know how to shoot cos he went through ADFA (got medically discharged, such a waste of taxpayer money). I hadn’t actually thought about it but now that you mention it, it does seem prudent.

    • The Asian families I know are in lock down mode for more than a month. And none of them goes out to dine

      • It’s not them that are the problem – it’s the Caucasians that are not eating at Chinese restaurants. They are being very racialist! I know this because several celebrities and assorted other ‘progressives’ have said so in the press.

    • Chatted with someone from Barwon Heads this morning( sea side holiday area west of Melbourne).
      He said the township is packed to the gills;
      -every person who has a holiday house down there has left Melbourne for the coast.
      – and they are all out and about, Restaurants and coffee places full, lots of cheek kisses and handshakes.
      It’s like they think you can’t spread the virus outside Melbourne!
      The Geelong area medical facilities are stretched very tightly over summer anyway, as the population increases with holiday makers.
      Can’t imagine it will cope at all if the virus gets going.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Seriously? I was sending Lovey and the boy down to Ocean Grove tomorrow thinking the place would be safe and deserted, then back here before the holiday hordes arrive.

        Bloody hard to keep ahead of the morons.

        • Seriously.
          He says it’s absolutely crazy.
          He’s lived down there for over a decade- pulled his two primary age children out of school as of Monday, with the school’s blessings.

        • Mining BoganMEMBER


          Oh well, they’re still heading down and will stay there as long as it stays quiet. Otherwise back to Hellbourne.

    • We went to Bunnings Gungahlin (Canberra), busy but Saturdays can be like that. Overheard a few people say they were stocking up for lock down or self isolation, do those odd jobs around the house to keep them busy – and that’s why we were there. Then ventured into Coles about 1pm and fvck me; there was hardly anyone in there. It was quieter than a normal Saturday unlike the week before that was absolute fvcken chaos with the worst of humanity on display. Anyway, did a shop, still had plenty of stuff if you care to think slightly differently. For example, rather stand in stunned amazement at the lack of chicken breast, we grabbed drum sticks for the oven. Plenty of those on offer . Pasta was pretty much stripped yet lasagna sheets were a plenty. Grabbed said pasta sheets and we’ll break them up to use in a bake. We reckon the hoarders were out last week. Good for us!

      • Seems everyone is planning for the same — gardening and home maintenance projects for the coming weeks / months. Surely Bunnings has to be considered an ‘essential’ outlet — at least here in straya. If that shuts there’ll be riots.

        Ironic that the garden (green) bins will be filling up in earnest just at a time when (here in QLD, at least) the green bin collection is set to be the first casualty when services are reduced! Typical. Anyway, the yard and the homestead should be looking schmick by the time the lock-down lifts.

        Spring-cleaned the house today too – gotta have it looking smart ahead of the apocalypse.

    • I’d like to at least have a face mask but alas can’t get them in my area. I have a friend in a chemist that told me as soon as they come in the chinese ‘networks’ find out and raid the place leaving none for locals.

    • “Mr Hunt said the states were responsible for dealing with the cruise ships and indicated NSW had not followed the correct procedure.” If these ships are coming from foreign ports then this is a Federal boarder security issue. Love the way these chunts throw anyone under the bus. The CMO and Deputy will be next.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Scotty’s Team Australia working as one. The LNP federal government is never wrong or negligent and it is always Labor’s fault or that of the states.

        Let me know when the bus has done its job.

    • Not surprised. From the “Back in black” surplus to the non-existent bush-fire relief fund, this government is all about the marketing without any substance. They probably figure that just the idea of a $750 stimulus is enough to get people spending before implementing it, and I hope they have the same idea that the notion of the banks will support struggling businesses and those with a mortgage will be enough not to crash those respective markets without acting.

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      If this is as bad as it is being portrayed in some quarters.
      We are going to be bullshi ted to by everyone.

    • I think that is fake. I’ve seen it before and someone else mentioned it was fake. I didn’t bother checking myself

  31. I’m been reading from good sources, such as reps from the CDC in the US, that the virus is airborne – ie. can be spread via breathing; similar to (though not as badly as) measles.

    What are others hearing from good sources?

    If true, then is simply no good basis for this 4m2 guideline – it would be bunkum, useless. It would mean lockdown is the only way to not have this thing go exponential and Italian (it’s probably too late, but worth trying).

    What are you hearing?

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      of course it’s airborne. pretty much every contagious virus is transmitted aerially. there would be metrics on how close and for how long you can side beside someone and the % chance of infection after X/Y/Z periods of time.

      • Yes, some mixed data, some reputable sources seem to be stating opposites …. I can’t make up my mind who is correct at present.

        The fact that so many hospital doctors who know the dangers are being infected suggests to me it probably can be aerosolised, but I’m not walking around Woolies in goggles yet.

        • migtronixMEMBER

          Why are the doctors getting into trouble but not the nurses. Riddle me that!

          The consultants or even registrars Alaren’t bed side 24/7. Nurses in ICU are. I worked in ICU at The Alfred for 7 years…

          • Who said the nurses aren’t getting into trouble? One just died in Spain.
            In any case who intubates the patients?

          • migtronixMEMBER

            Consultant. Takes 5 minutes.

            Who has to administer ENT feeding to the patient with a tracheostomy several times day? Not the consultant.

          • 1 in 12 cases in Italy are healthcare workers. Not all doctors.
            What is ENT feeding?
            The feeding is closed and goes gastric not pulmonary. The airway suction is a closed system in a modern ICU. The intubation is a giant aerosol before the circuit is connected and a close system.
            I am that consultant by the way.

    • Yes it is airborne and the only way is lockdown and it needs to be strict.The response in this country has been deplorable

    • I believe the correct term for airborne is aerosol transmission. And yes it is transmitted via aerosol. The Chinese scientists said this way a feature of the virus about 6-8 weeks ago, which is why I despise our CMO because he has dismissed it. So in a fast moving, chaotic situation like what we are experiencing it is difficult to get gold standard science on aerosol transmission but it is fr1ckin obvious by the vast numbers being infected that it is transmitted by aerosols. Does anyone really think it can infect so many people globally so quickly by droplet transmission? By now there is plenty of scientific evidence of aerosol transmission. Check out the Lancet SARS COV 2 resource
      There is a reason why so many countries overseas are telling people in lockdown to STAY INDOORS, and it is because of aerosol transmission. That may be advice in Australia for high density areas if they ever accept aerosol transmission. I’m grateful I’m in a semi rural area and I will be able to go outdoors throughout all of this.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      Fvck that mexican sh!t unless you intend to mod the fvck out of it and why would you mod a baritone guitar.

      Wait 6 months, then let us have a look again. Guitars are like boats (at the tradie end of the market)

  32. Jeebus, Straya in dissaray.
    Like I said previously, practically Marshal law here in Austria. But people are for the most part doing the right thing, showing some solidarity. Streets are empty. The govt reported last night that strict measures are having an effect. They want to avoid what has happened to poor Italy.

    Straya still has Casino’s and schools open. Hospital system will collapse. Here, a VW factory is being re-tooled to make ventilators. Straya riding on the sheep’s back?

    Maybe you can pull a few tradies off their pet-reno and set them the task?

    Bedlum is coming

    Scomo’s bedlum

    After decades of free-market sh$tf$ckery, public sector evisceration and property flipping delusion par-excellence.

    (ps. I cannot believe the property panic buying article in the AFR yesterday. Purest gold)

  33. What happens when capitalism eats itself?

    “…Yet at the same time, things have never been better for the ultra rich. They’ve captured more than 100% of gains over the last decade. The stock market is booming — but just 10% of Americans really own stocks, and maybe 1% earn a living from capital income. So, enjoying inequality that now puts classical Rome to shame, the mega rich quite literally have piled up fortunes so incredibly vast, there is literally nowhere left to put all the money — all the yachts, mansions, and lofts have been bought. That is why interest rates are permanently at zero: there is so much money piled up at the top of the economy, there is nowhere left to put it, except the one place it should go, which is right back to the people who need it: the middle class and poor, or if you like, the proletariat and the petite bourgeoisie in Marxist terms.”

    Dr Nate Hagens on CV and the new normal. I was waiting for input from Nate, and as usual, he delivers.

  34. number of new cases in Australia per day:
    March 18 (GMT) :141 or 31% up
    March 19 (GMT): 160 or 24% up
    March 20 (GMT): 172 or 23% up
    March 21 (GMT): 123 or 14% up

    So last few days don’t look exponential at all. Number of new cases is barely growing.
    If it was exponential with the same inputs (assuming no social adaptation and virus attenuation, …) number of new cases daily should after 4 days have already be 420
    these are still low numbers so testing capacity cannot yet be blamed for this

    The problem is that people assume that social adaptations and virus attenuation are not playing any role.
    When Italy was getting over 1000 cases they had 250 new cases that day, next day they had 580 new cases.

    I will be worried only if we see numbers of new cases repeatedly doubling in a day or two

    • When they start testing properly then I’ll be more sure about the numbers. Right now I’m not convinced we are testing like we should.

      A friend in Dublin went through a drive through test set up at Croke park. (Like the MCG).

      This is what we should have set up here. We should be testing with people staying in their cars like Korea did. Then we would know properly who has it and doesn’t.

      PS I watched 28 Days Later (2002) last night. I am thinking it may have been a documentary.

      • I’m not aware of testing policy changing so current numbers would be as underestimating as numbers before – that should not affect the trends

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        “This is what we should have set up here.”

        Never going to happen here – Straya’s different and invincible. We have been told this ad nauseum in the past (and it’s more of a lie now than ever before).

        • hammac2000MEMBER

          Actually drive through testing is now available at Auburn hospital in Sydney. Hazmat suits and windows rolled down halfway only please. Friend was tested today. We are special to be sure but there are at least some sane competent heads doing their best despite rampant government fckwittery.

    • It’s cos everyone was down at Bondi the day before! 😂

      seriously though, hope the rate of infection is falling, which might be largely due to private companies telling staff to work from home in the Syd/Melb hotpots. (seems a bit early for governments recent distancing measures to be showing). When did the hot weather start … could this be a factor? Also we need to see average over a few days before I get too excited over 14%.

    • Those numbers seem to be different to others published Doc (which are not exponential but are growing each day)??

    • Not sure I agree with your Italy numbers:

      Check the timeline – the daily new case rates when they reach above 1000 are around 25% increase most days – sure some days you get spikes of 50% increases but I expect to see these spikes in Aus as well when testing is more comprehensive (not just overseas traveler or confirmed contact of CV showing symptoms) or when a number of community transmission cases get more serious (i.e serious breathing difficulty, high fever etc). I’m not sure what CV testing criteria was at this stage (just 1000 confirmed cases) but if they were testing wider than Aus then there is potential for the Aus number to rise even faster later.

    • There’s no mass testing.

      Strayans are funny.

      Rate of infections are skyrocketing. Like every other country on earth.

      Straya is no different.

      Not looking down at your clap won’t make it disappear.

    • Not sure where your numbers came from but the SMH graph shows:
      March 17-18: 113 new cases
      March 18-19: 142
      March 19-20: 138
      March 20-21: 203
      Gives a total of 596 new cases in 4 days. It almost doubled in 3 days (393 new cases from March 17-20 on an existing base of 454 cases).

  35. Rostered on for work Monday (potentially doing essential work), keep waiting in vain for the govt or company to pull the pin so I can at least get stood down by them with future work available instead of me pulling the pin too early and getting dropped to the bottom of the callout list. I need to work for at least the next week to keep me cashed up enough for a few months of no work but I’d prefer to not work at all. If a potential shutdown (along with proposed stimulus for unemployed casuals) is likely after uni census date I’ll pull the pin now, but Scomo isn’t filling me with confidence.

    On a related note, how much extra hourly danger money does everyone think essential services staff should be getting in a real lock down?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Depends. I’m assuming Reusa’s chinamenladies’ providers are offering major discounts right about now.

      Far less busy in that department around Brissy too.
      Edit: according to a friend.
      Edit: not that there’s anything wrong with that.
      Edit: well that’s what my friend said.

    • If you don’t have a mask but you have safety googles and can wear them at work, then I suggest you do. It is looking like the viral load a person gets at time of infection determines how serious the infection is. This could explain the high death rates in touchy feely cultures like Italy and Iran compared to the Asian countries that are way more stand offish. The eyes are a infection pathway, so eye protection is a must.

  36. desmodromicMEMBER

    Went to a winery in the Adelaide Hills this afternoon and had our temperatures taken before being allowed entry.

  37. So talking to elderly locals about the current state of things and it appears all of them were in fairly risky ‘balanced’ super funds and have lost a lot. I inquired why they didn’t have it in something more conservative and they were surprised that you could do that and switch funds. Friend who is a buyers agent lost 2 clients this week because they lost a lot in their fund and now couldnt afford to buy. Makes me wonder how many people, especially elderly, who had way to much exposure and lost a ton….and still loosing because ‘im not touching it, it always goes back up’.

  38. Totes BeWokeMEMBER

    “People without symptoms do not need to be tested.”

    Richard Wilkins tested positive with NO SYMPTOMS. WTF?

    Violence will start when respirators are prioritized to the elites.

      • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

        Sure, but they’re not routinely testing that way.

        No symptoms no test. Unless you’re the handful of elites so far.

        Why test when the protocol is isolation anyway?

        Save those tests for random among the community with symptoms who have no known contact and no reason to isolate.

  39. U.K. has already banned the export of a whole range of drugs that ae not under existing contract. Note this especially included Quinone and Hyroxyquinone.

    • who wants to bet we will be last to do same? we will send all the beef and all the drugs we manufacture to rest of the world before these morons put a ban.

  40. DingwallMEMBER

    So what masks are recommended? Currently stores don’t seem to have stock and buying them seemed to be frowned upon……… but I can picture everyone heading to the shops etc in a mask in the very near future,

  41. Goldstandard1MEMBER

    Riev busy ‘massaging’ the sh!tstorm numbers with release an hour delayed…… good luck shining the turd guys……


    • PalimpsestMEMBER

      Interesting results thanks @David. Some up, some down. I notice someone bidding on a big development block still, although down on last sale price. That won’t end well.

  42. Rorke's DriftMEMBER

    Email from Bresic Whitney, inner west, Sydney. “9 of 24 Auctions sold giving 39%, if you ignore the 3 postponed”. Yeah, well, I dont ignore postponed auctions. That’s 9/27 = 33% clearance. Once the statisticians do the proper modelling it will probably come out 80% or something Sydney wide, but the raw data tells the story.

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      Bresic Whitney also put guidance and sale prices down, so good on them for the data. One sale was listed at “Sold, undisclosed (above guidance).” The fact they needed to point that out suggests that the other “undisclosed” are below guidance.

      On this sample of 29 auctions, unsold and undisclosed doesnt contribute a sale price therefore includding only those prices sold and disclosed, the average price received would look pretty heathy I think.

  43. Domain numbers Syd and Melb low 60s clearances rates.

    A borderline C – D! Love it.