Weekend Reading: 14-15 March 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:

Americas:

Europe:

Asia:

Trans-Tasman:

Leith van Onselen

Comments

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Ermo, we could always be neighbors at the Central Coast or Mid North Coast. Surfed there, N Shel Point yesterday morn everyone there healthy and in good spirits. Came back to Manly, Asian woman walked past with a mask on that looked like a mini burka. Went to the Long Reef pie shop to sit down but there was an Asian guy there with his family coughing his guts up with fluids streaming out of his nose and eyes. Positive case couple of streets up in Brookvale. Good time not to be in Sydney.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Mate how good is that Pie Shop!
        We are talking about “The upper crust” are we not?
        I haven’t been there for years.
        Remember the 2 old Sheila’s that ran it.

        Everybody has some pie shop they rattle on about as having the best pies, but I always pull them up and say Nah,…that place would be shyte compared to the Upper Crust ya dopey cvnt. If ya haven’t had a pie from there ya got no fking idea pal.
        Funny how so many people get upset with me for simply stating the truth.
        I suppose some people cant handle the Truth.

        They still got them Baked veggie pies? One of my favourites.
        And how about them Cheese and bacon sausage rolls!
        And the Custard tarts!
        Won’t find high quality smoko food like that on my Rooty Hill digup today.

        • Next time you come through Ulladulla, check out Haydens Pies, LHS just past southern roundabout. Then get back to me!

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Ermo,
            yup Upper Crust but hate to bring devastating news. They won a prestigious award then sold the business. Now not as good. The favorite veggie pie now has a brother which is nowhere as good so if you chance past one day make sure you get the original one.
            Colin,
            used to surf Ulladalla and remember good food in the area but that was a long time ago. Nowdays mate and I go to Bombo on the way to Tumut shutdowns. One such day it was absolutely pumping and we had it to ourselves were the only ones out. Found out later that someone got bitten by a shark days before.

  1. CORONAVIRUS … illustrating the status of testing in the United States …

    Here’s what this US coronavirus survivor in Seattle learned when she was sick … CNN Health

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/12/health/coronavirus-survivor-elizabeth-schneider/index.html

    How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains | Joe Rogan … YouTube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZFhjMQrVts&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR21NxG3xwuyruQz9UgPiotAjezxr-K9zkLktZcBAD90dMXDiJSjxlYKrGw

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Well according to the dept collector they have already met. They apologized for not getting around to my cases as since January have had their work load double and this week have seen bad dept hopeful collection business triple.
        Bit annoying that they haven’t started my cases yet as running out of float money.

  2. Anyone see Albo’s letter to Scomo re: having parliament sit next week to address coronvirus and economic measures? Put that together with the Cash Ban legislation vote in Senate supposed to take place week of March 23 – money on them trying to ram it through next week when no-one is looking.

    That’s the real game being played, not the virus IMO.

  3. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    An economist has called for each Australian citizen to be given an emergency cash payment of $7,780 to limit the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak.

    Professor Steve Keen of the University College of London has called for a payment to go directly to each citizen in an extraordinary measure to prevent the coronavirus pandemic triggering a full-blown financial crisis.

    ‘This is the physical challenge to the economy which we haven’t had since World War II,’ he told Daily Mail Australia on Tuesday.

    ‘We don’t want it to turn into a financial crisis as well when Australian households are more indebted than they’ve ever been.’

    The professor’s calls come as Prime Minister Scott Morrison said coronavirus could be worse than the Global Financial Crisis of more than a decade ago, with Australia now even more reliant on China for exports.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8093719/Why-Australian-needs-given-7-780-limit-economic-damage-coronavirus.html

    So why $7780?
    Why not $8000?

      • I’m not sure how a jubilee would work – I’m sure I’ve debunked his plan a hundred times.

        Debt isn’t something owed to nobody – debt is owed to somebody who very much relies on that debt being repaid.

        One man’s liability is another man’s asset — in other words: write off $50 trillion of debt and you write off $50 trillion of wealth.

        The only way it could work is if the Govt printed the money to compensate the creditors — in other words savers and those on fixed incomes would end up bailing out those with debts. Not exactly ‘fair’, is it.

        • Yep. Money is an overlay on real resources.
          Can Keen explain his system in terms of real resources, without mentioning money?
          (If he cannot he is a quack)

          • Claw That is a FACT that is understood by very very few these days.
            Note also as per Dominic – Yup!!!! In addition we owe getting up towards a Trillion (haven’t got exact number in front of me) to Mr & Mrs Wang in China, Mr & Mrs Ng in Vietnam, Mr & Mrs Baggvhaditum in Thailand all of whom have worked HARD and SAVED for decades. Now how to we get them to just forgive us all of our debts so we can go on living the entitled lifestyle to which we have become accustomed while they go on working to provide us with that lifestyle for free???
            I’ve never heard and answer – from Keen, Bill Barnacle, or anyone else.
            And…as per Dominic – why do we ask some poor critter working and living in the heat out at Quilpie or Eromanga to pay off the debts of the lavish living Sydney inner suburbs?

          • Correct, Dominic, Claw, flawse.

            Money is just a medium of exchange that enables standardized comparisons of the relative prices of various items. It follows that it is the relative share of the total amount of money in circulation that matters, not the absolute amount one owns.

            So a debt jubilee is nothing other than the Weimar solution. Everyone is multi-billionaire and a litter of unleaded costs a million. And Straya will become poorer in the process – this is as clear as day.

            Foreign creditors are not stupid (after all, they didn’t become rich by being stupid). They know better than holding onto the rapidly debasing AUD and channel the proceeds to whatever is still left of the productive capacity of the sorry Straya – i.e., farms, mines, ports, airports, toll roads, etc., that are not already owned by the foreign interests. The locals will not have enough purchasing power to outbid because they will have used the jubilee money to pay off their outstanding debt, which will have gone straight back to the foreign creditors.

            I should take Steve Keen as my new apprentice and complete his training…..

          • DS Absolutely. Most don’t understand that money flow is dynamic not a static straight line – like a river in many ways. The money doesn’t stop at the place you put it in. Foreigners get the money what do they do with it? Fundamentally we are still running a serious CAD so there is nothing we produce they want. Two options – throw it in the market at any price – leading to collapse of the currency OR buy up assets, farms, mines, key industries, infrastructure, for their long term future prosperity. Those are the ONLY two alternatives.
            I don’t know what happened to Keen. Sometime after 2006 he turned into a moron. Maybe the Star Chamber got to him.

        • the Debt Jubilee nonsense does not work – END of STORY!!! Your observations correct but also we owe much of our debt to foreigners – why should/would they just forgive us? – as per below under Claw.

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            Let he who accrued the debt, pay the debt.
            It is the only way for people to learn the lesson.

        • Keens “modern debt jubilee” doesn’t just destroy the debt of debitors it gives everyone the same amount of money even to those who have NO debt, the proviso is that those with debit are forced to pay off that debit while those with no or little debit get to keep that money. So creditors do not lose their money they are paid & it’s fair as everyone gets the same amount of money. Foreign debitors would be paid also.

          • Interesting (not being facetious). Just thinking the effects of this through:
            – potentially huge inflation, on the one hand
            – the financial system on the other would have all their loans paid off with printed money so their balance sheets would be reduced to nothing but they’d have large deposits. Equity would vanish because there’d be liabilities and no assets (have to think that through a bit further because the balance sheet would still need to balance somehow).

            Yep, I just think you’d have huge inflation – same as it always is with printing money. And while handing identical amounts of money to all people sounds fair, what’s there to stop someone just re-mortgaging anyway to get more money out and go straight back into debt. Inflation – would be bigly, probably hyper. I’d get my cash and buy as much gold as I could physically carry, which would only exacerbate the inflationary impact.

          • gives everyone the same amount of money even to those who have NO debt

            Then it is a UBI. He should stop calling it debt jubilee.

            Even Nouriel Roubini wants a UBI:

            Economist Nouriel Roubini backed the idea in a tweet Friday, suggesting that it be financed with bonds and monetized by the Federal Reserve.

            On Friday, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii), a 2020 presidential candidate, introduced a resolution that would provide an income of $1,000 a month to every American “until COVID-19 no longer presents a public health emergency.”

            https://thehill.com/homenews/house/487485-lawmakers-call-for-economic-stimulus-ubi-amid-coronavirus-crisis

          • Yes, there would be risks, inflation being primary probably, so some measures would have to be taken to control these issues. Also rules would have to be changed to prevent the whole credit/debit machine from creating the same situation again. But lets not forget this would be the better alternative to something far worse ie. deflation, depression, lost decades or similar. It’s about trying to escape the trap we are currently in.

            As I understand it the financial institutions would still need to settle their financing instruments with the central bank which they originally used to create said loans, thus destroying money at the central bank. But I do really need to read a good book on how this all works in detail as some times I think I get it then next time I don’t 😜, I’m trusting Keen etc are right in this area. Yes banks would have an extra pile of cash from those that did not have debit to pay down so rules would need to change for that too, I guess, eg banks need to hold a lot more capital than presently.

            My own thought was this jubilee would not have to be total, merely enough to lower the countries debit levels to the long term average where the system used to work pretty well, in the days credit was given more to productive enterprises & not so much to flipping houses. Though our changing demographics complicate this a bit.

            @Jacob
            it would be a one off payment or at least temporary fix, so not a UBI as such.

          • Zulu Pls see Dart Sidious’ and my reply above

            Maaate – there is no book that considers the dynamic aspects or that money actually does, despite the best efforts of Bankers and the economic fraternity, still mean that those who hold it can control resources. If there was the university faculties and bankers would have burned it.

          • Zulu, let’s consider 4 options. Option (1) splash $1 per capita, (2) $1,000 per capita, (3) $1,000,000 per capita, (4) $1,000,000,000 per capita. All the other possible options will fall somewhere in between, so considering these 4 will cover it all.

            Option (1) will not do much (additional) harm than the existing inflation (an ounce of gold was worth AUD $51 and USD $65 in January 1973, the earliest available data after the Nixon shock. Today, an ounce of gold is worth about AUD $2400 and USD $1600. In other words, USD lost 96% of its purchasing power while AUD lost 98% of its purchasing power over the last 46 years). But this option doesn’t help much in solving the problem at hand either because the scale of the outstanding debt is so much bigger. In short, it doesn’t make much difference in either way.

            Option (2) will help the heavily indebted punters catch their breath for a few months. Inflation will rise somewhat that will be noticeable. We will then face the same problem in a few months.

            Option (3) is a more drastic measure that will make a meaningful impact. Strayans will be nearly debt-free, at least temporarily, while more real assets will be in the hands of foreign creditors (see above). Since Straya will lack any productive capacity but will be unable to live within its means, it will restart a new round of downhill walk to a lower bottom. We will revisit the same problem in a decade or two, only in a worse shape.

            Option (4) will be a total reset of the system as we know it. One will only need to look at Zimbabwe to see what to expect.

            The bottom line is that injecting free money that is less than the interest bills will be deflationary and at the same time the scale of the outstanding debt (and the interest bills) is gigantic. The only way to avoid deflation is to print like mad. Is deflation bad? You bet!! Is hyperinflation bad? You bet!!

            Between a rock and a hard place…..?

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Well thanks to the bats sniffles that rainy day is going to be here sooner than you think.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Wonder how much dept the person who bought this has?
          3/79-80 North Steyne, Manly
          Apartment
          $7,000,000
          Sold on 13 Mar 2020
          Mortgage Repayments calculator

          Property price
          $7,000,000
          Deposit
          $1,400,000
          Loan amount
          $5,600,000
          Interest rate (p.a.)
          3.74 %
          Loan term
          30 years
          $25,903Estimated monthly repayments based on an advertised price of $7,000,000
          Disclaimer
          .
          No good to you Gav only a 2 car garage.

          • Even if I won 50 large in the Lotto I still don’t think I could justify paying 7 for a unit.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            China, you just made me near fall off the chair laughing, keep up the good work, laughter is good medicine and missed this mornings surf or ride medicine.

        • I would also put the cash on my mortgage. My big final exam for July was cancelled, now i’m just sitting around pullling my dick for a few more months.

          btw – peak irony here. In a doctors FB group, there was a post by someone saying how Asian countries (S korea, Japan, Singapore – and less so china given it was authoratarian) have ‘contained’ the wuhan flu, yet western countries its gone mad. The commens are full of Western countries being entitled and not caring about others etc.

          No mention of Strong homogenous legacy cultures with minimal external population (maybe not as much singapore)

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            It is every man for himself in the EZFKA – may the most meritorious individual win!

      • Big difference between distributing cash injections during calamities and a UBI Jacob … not that you have been informed of all the ills of a UBI.

        Watery philosophical notions aside …

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        You fool – look what you summoned!!

        Funnily enough, as much as it confuses and sickens me, I actually agree with both the MB poltergeists on this one; with a couple steps in between a UBI would simply be an income stream straight back into the pockets of the status quo.

        Much prefer a progressive tax and spend, while ensuring there is a healthy welfare net… but of course that requires true shared values and high levels of trust.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Because Australia doesnt have a tipping culture….?

      I am just trying to rationalise the amount.

      $1000 for frozen pies and pizzas
      $400 for canned vegetables/baked beans/spaghetti/tuna
      $2000 for Camberwell Carrots
      $500 for a years worth of half decent internet
      $200 for bog roll (assuming it can be found)
      $1000 for a decent stash of alcohol

      after that I find myself wondering……

      • I suspect the good professor carried out a top-down analysis. How many billions does he guess needs to be injected into the Australian economy, how many Australian citizens does google say there are, divide one by the other and = $7780. Another example of precision not equating to accuracy ie he just pulled the numbers out of … thin air.

    • So Scumo and the Hungarian would not understand the message to complain.

      Scumo has proven problems with $ numbers eg. NZ Tourism. Tourism Australia, pre-selection.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      Scotty from Marketing Is giving 75000!!!! (cents) to some people albeit reluctantly (but at least some of that is going to well-heeled people of LNP faith who have health cards), Wasting more money on the genuine needy is really not on for Scotty as his marketing principles tell him that attrition is a great way to cull and only reach your true target base

    • Why not 8000? I agree, that 7780 number just smells a bit. Would an extra 220 tip the balance somehow? Weird – I’d love to ask him.

    • If Hubby and wife went straight to the bank to withdraw the cash together, then they could be done for committing a serious crime (more than $10,000 cash in the same place or such). Think of the boost to GDP in jailing the pair!

  4. Ukraine is going to close it’s borders. In 48hrs.

    Really closed. None of this entry then self-isolation. Non citizens will be denied entry.

    • No Russian soldiers allowed in…

      Ooh, that’s another thought…I wonder what dodgy stuff the Russians are going to pull during the crisis?! Such as wind pushing their tanks irresistibly several kilometres across the borders of adjacent nations, etc…and then liking it there, finding heaps of Russians actually live there and want them to stay…you know, normal natural stuff and normal Russian stuff…lolololol…

    • Quite a few have including Denmark. Denmark really interesting because closing their border is illegal!!! The concept of ‘Europe’ keeps getting eroded.

  5. John Travolta – Corona Virus

    News just in, ‘We thought John Travolta had Corona, but it turned out to be Saturday night fever; so now his doctor is saying he’ll be stayin alive.’

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          Well its under your name mate…..I’m dobbing!

          I’m trying to find out if there is any plausible reason for the AUD 0230 crash, and have just asked two guys on a trading desk in the UK if they have anything in the newsflow to explain it.

          It was travelling along just under 63s for hours and then the floor just opened up…..

          • Not sure if anyone has noticed – but that handle has broken through the previous 2008/2009 lows of the GFC. This means the next stop down is April 2001 with .48 cents.

            AUD to break through 50 cents.

          • Hah Gunna, can post images. So he slotted it under Kevin. 😃

            It seems the world is finally ending. No more 18 months to go. It’s here now.

          • happy valleyMEMBER

            The RBA happy clappies would be pleased – back to downing the caviar and quaffing the Cristal and working on that $250m office refurb

        • China PlateMEMBER

          Yeah sure Kevin pull the other one.
          Next you’re going to tell us you are illiterate but some how your hand picked up a pen and you have distilled the true wisdom of not only UBI but also debt jubilees

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Opportunity Gav, opportunity. Inform their families that they can’t get the bodies back unless a ‘small’ sum of something like $50k is paid to the ‘Send Them Home’ fund. Failure to pay will result in the body just being tossed on the eternal fires burning in Kellyville and Melton.

          • We can offer a 1 time fee for fumigation. Australian quarantine insists on fumigating my car before entry into the country and yet they allowed virus carries across the border for weeks. Funny that.

  6. Well that was a nice surprise. Last check of the chart and the poo was at 61.48
    This is moving faster than ever imagined. Even after years of waiting….

  7. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Notice to all the FISHO’s.
    Small bait fish jumping out of the water next to me yesterday chased by Bonito.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        That counts me out either way, never was a reel man, too many tangles. bad enough with the spear mono filament, jumping out of the water near me on the short board,

    • I saw it reported that during the worst of the GFC Russia approached China and suggested that if they acted together they could crash the western financial system. China for whatever reason, most likely because they were balls deep in the financial system, declined and instead embarked on the largest QA program to save not only itself but economies like Australia.

      Russia has been squirreling away massive amounts of petromoney since the GFC. And now, as the global financial system is once again on the precipice, they think they can go it alone. How much of the US shale industry was built on debt and hope? How much of the global economy was?

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        IMO the Russians will ride out an oil price collapse with far greater ease than either the Sauds, the rest of OPEC, or the Americans.

        Those financial sanctions imposed back in 2014 – of the global financial system lending to the Russian state and major Russian state owned companies – we are talking Gazprom, Rosneft, VTB, Sberbank, Norilsk etc [about half the Russian economy] – means that:-

        They havent been borrowing on global markets (there have been a few corporate bond issues but they have all been RUB)
        They have been running off their own earnings
        They havent been taking part in big projects buying assets inflated in price terms by QE.

        After 2014 – when they had a budget reliant on an oil price up around 100/bbl – Russia has been running a pretty tight budget. The Russian budget was based on $49/bbl in 2019 and is based on $44/bbl in 2020. Sure, that will see them wear pain, but they have had a number of years of seriously building up national reserves (and salting away gold).
        Ordinary everyday Russians dont generally take out vast mortgages, and many of them have limited access to credit.

        Compare that with the US – where the entire shale industry is leveraged to the eyeballs and cuts out a point well above the Russian budget base – Or the Sauds – where the state is leveraged to the eyeballs, and is just over the water from Iran, and a bone hatchet inspiring Prince is running the show, where he is trying to sell off a chunk of ARAMCO, and the last reliable reserves data dates from the mid 1970s.

        All while global demand is being looked squarely in the eye and getting the mother of all knees to the cojones.

        My base case actually has the Russians spending pretty big on the Russian punterariat in the lead up to the 2024 Presidential elections. They have the dough basically just sitting there.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Interesting, thanks all.
          Reminds me of South African tooling the sanctions forced them to invent, design and make their own which I had never seen before great idea’s and quality.

          • Yep. SA is a great example – necessity being the mother of invention etc. Globalisation has ruined us an inventive and productive nation (if we ever were). Nevertheless, some reverse globalisation should lead to some good results for us in the fullness of time.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        Yep i get that triage but the shale oil industry is built on a capitalistic model. Putin drives the oil price down, the frackers go out of business, the price goes up again and all the little – perhaps not so little – frackers flood back in. But before that even won’t the US prop them up

        • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

          I maintain that one of the reasons we have such low interest rates is that rates need to be this low in order to justify the abysmal rate of return required in order to justify extracting the oil from shale rocks. If the price of oil was subject to the marginal cost producer in a world where the laws of economics were NOT being twisted by central banks, then oil would be much, much higher – there is simply no other way to justify the capital tied up in shale and their paltry returns.

          In many ways low interest rates are a humanitarian UN policy as much as a policy of the US – Low oil prices are needed in order to maintain the status quo – they’re needed in order to prevent the 3rd world and developing nations collapsing into food riots as the true cost of the energy embedded in food prices is passed along.

          Low interest rates are a long term human, financial and ecological disaster in the making – it isn’t just massive asset price declines being pushed off into the future, but population and ecological. By continuing to push these natural forces and limitations off to the future with nothing more than financial engineering it only guarantees that the eventual collapse will be all the greater.

          Shale oil only worked as a financial stunt during the low interest lending orgy of the past decade.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Correct me if I’m wrong but weren’t the shale Co’s on the verge of collapse a few years ago due to falling price of Saudi oil.then they recovered.

        • As stewie alludes to above, it’s monetary policy which keeps these frackers afloat – without rates where they are, most would be cactus. Low rates drive savings into high yield bonds and it’s the high yield bond market where these frackers finance themselves. T\he reach for yield is so desperate that these guys – even the marginal ones have little problem raising money to drill. But the negative impact of ultra-low rates is more wide-ranging than that – they are currently keeping tens of thousands of zombie companies alive around the world. Companies with no prospects – entities that keep a few people in jobs and precious capital tied up that could be used elsewhere to fund real productive endeavour. What we’re seeing now is not ‘broken’ capitalism — it’s the opposite: it’s anti-capitalism. Capitalism is about a constant cycle of creative destruction that drives productivity and jobs. The reason the global economy is in the sheiser is because interest rates are so low that they are sustaining the walking dead, which is suffocating growth.

          End the Fed. End central banking and you’ll witness a monumental crash followed — but followed by an economic comeback like nothing else.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Yep the economic winter has the purpose of clearing the way for new shoots, trying to stop the winter stifles green shoots..

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            IMHO it isn’t just zombie companies being kept alive with low interest rates and access to highly subsidized fuel (by way of financing for the capital costs required to deliver the shale oil to market) but many zombie nations that would cease to exist, if food costs had the embedded fuel subsidy removed from them.

      • They have been huge buyers of gold this decade. That’s going to matter bigly in the years ahead. They are in a great position.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          China as well, and there is a huge amount of personally held gold in India also..

  8. Record 250 deaths in Italy in 1 day.

    Stock market spiked. Expecting more powder.

    It’s barbarism.

    Depraved.

    But the machine itself is dying.
    And we should all be thankful for that.

        • Not necessarily. There is a legal obligation to have a stockpile size of 90 days’ worth of net import needs (for if imports stopped). They used to import a lot so their total capacity would have been a big number. Now the US is a net exporter their legal obligations are for far less or even zero, so their stockpiles may have been permitted to run down.

          With oil very cheap and US producers getting smashed I can see the logic of doing it now, if you take the view that a national stockpile is a good idea.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Good! Because we need them here to do all the jobs locals don’t want, which is most of them.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        No one will ever know the real figures for India as the bulk of the population won’t be tested, just attributed to just another thousands daily deaths among billion+

        • Reverse Transcriptase

          And any significant increase would lead to travel bans. A bigly portion of its economy involves sending its citizens overseas to work and send back remittances, and also to make use of the social welfare and health systems of other countries. If that racket gets cut, that will not be good.

          Bit like reporting failed auctions on a Saturday arvo. That honesty stuff is for loosers …

          • Makes sense, my Indian boss said India will not allow any foreigners entering, but everyone is allowed to leave

  9. Beyond the next three months what effects will this virus have on the economy.
    Will inflation spike?
    Will every new house be fitted with an extra storage room for toilet paper?

    • Will we ever go back to working in an office? Catching public transport? How scarred will it leave the population?

      And is this the moment shut-ins have been waiting for? While everyone else struggles to adjust to social distancing, the shut-in has been practicing this their whole life. It’s like an unfair advantage. They may end up ruling the (post-Covid19) world.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Yes this,…Im planning on using my huge stockpile of Baked beans to leverage my way into unchallenged Authoritarian power.

      • It is the evolution of things. Shut ins who built dooms day bunkers will suddenly have sex appeal on tinder and be able to find a mate to reproduce with. But they will have to stop licking windows or they will get sick.

      • Locus of ControlMEMBER

        Does more shut-ins mean a greater prospective audience/ more membership subscriptions here at MB?

        I’d like to think we, the shut-in community, will be welcoming towards all the new shut-ins that will be joining our ranks.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Maybe A grade, B grade etc.
          Better stop posting sht, don’t want to beat Dominic to the most post award/trophy.
          That house tyre kick inspection around corner really stuffed my cafe day, made worse by the missus making my once a week coffee of which I discarded most in the sink as the sit down chill out is just as important. It didn’t cut the mustard

          • Boom, I’ve already conceded defeat – to you and harry, at least. There must be others too.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      “extra storage room for toilet paper?”
      Yeah perhaps those stupid butler’s kitchens die a quick death at the same time

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Butlers kitchen maybe required when cafe’s and restaurants go broke. Now how are people going to de-stress damm it.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        When it comes to pills I’m quite naive. Is Bex still around ? or are you showing your age?

        • The formula was a Bex and a beer……or….better still…a Bex and a beer and a rum chaser!!!! I can remember the old days when the old blokes were sitting at the bar with a packet of Bex in front of them.

          • flawse – what was the bex for? Mixed with alcohol did it produce butterflies or something? Or was that just pre-emptive action for the blue they were likely to get into later on? I seem to recall that it was banned when it was found to be destroying kidneys.

            I remember seeing a UK interview of Barry Gibb, who by then had reverted to being a pom, and he described how as kids they used to perform at pubs in Redcliffe (just outside Brissie). He described how rough the pubs were, with lots of fighting, to the extent that often the punch-ups would start as blokes sat around tables – they would not even bother to get up and go outside. Some people here seem to forget what the “culture” was they all yearn for now.

          • I can’t remember the theory on the Bex. Some used Vincents APC. Maybe it was for the headache they would get later. Re the fights – by the time I was drinking they were taken outside pretty quickly although the odd stoush in the bar was not that unusual. I am talking country pubs mostly so Marquis of Queensbury rules were pretty much followed less the handshake to start!!! Other places were rougher. I worked as a barman in South Brisbane for a bit while at Uni. You had to be able to fight!!!!In country pubs fights were pretty much the entertainment for the weekend. Sometimes it seemed like the blokes who lost 9 out of 10 were involved in the most. Re going back in time – they were good days but…Nostalgia is not what it used to be!

        • Bex, Vincents, etc etc. They were all just very overpriced Aspirin with some type of generic antacid chucked in. I’m sure I saw some Vincents powders in a country shop just a few years ago. Bad old days for truth in advertising

      • That’s it Frosti, I think the trilogy was a cup of tea, a Bex and a good lie down.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      What the point of that? Just to point out both countries are sh!t and beneath them?

    • I felt estranged living in Dublin, then when I came back I felt a sense of reverse culture shock for a while. It’s just the way it is, it’s not racism etc.. it’s just the way it is. The author sounds like a she’s whining a lot to me.

      • It’s been instilled in our society to see racism and discrimination everywhere and in everything – Krati has outed herself as just ‘one of the herd’ — the unthinking. All her thinking is done for her by the liberal media. Very sad.

        She came here freely and she’s free to leave any time she likes. A bit of gratitude might be nice, but alas ..

    • What a self-indulgent whinge.

      Nobody compelled Krati Garg to move to Australia and become a citizen. She wasn’t exiled here on a convict ship. She didn’t have to leave that earthly paradise of India.

      Also, how about sparing a thought for all the Australians who now feel like strangers in their own country thanks to mass immigration?

      • Reverse Transcriptase

        And are on the receiving end of death stares from her elderly Medicare dependent relatives for just setting foot in the street anywhere west of Strathfield.

        Take it from my bitter experience: nobody does racialism like an elderly Indian.

    • God help us … the whining, self indulgent BS of the middle class sub-continental who, even while being so relatively privileged in their own country environment manages to find so very many reasons to be offended by living here … my ow my … if ever you wanted to understand the 70’s vintage bumper sticker [variants thereof] ‘if you don’t like here FOff/go back where you came from’ … this is it

      pack your bags and piss off, you’re not needed here …

  10. “Remember when all the conservatives and centrists were using the example of the toilet paper shortage in Venezuela as proof that it was a failed state?” – lolololol …

    P.S. I guess this also settles the old debate about which mob are the real – natural [tm] eugenicists. I wonder how many even remember that bit of mud wrestling yonks ago ….

      • See Boris Johnston and his top health pick …. not that Trumps bungling is acerbated by same dynamic.

    • There’s no equivalence skip – when the toilet paper ran out in in Venezuela it ran out for good. Here the manufacturers (capitalists) responded to the demand spike by putting on extra shifts and – lo and behold – problem solved. See how this works?

      When the demented Robert Mugabe drove his country into the economic abyss he denounced the ‘profiteers’ for putting up prices (inflation was running at several hundred percent by now) and imposed a price ceiling of Z$12 for a loaf of bread. The bakers just shut their doors, turned off their ovens and there was no bread. No more profiteering and no more food! That fixed thing, didn’t it skip?

      • Dominic …. I see your using remote viewing again.

        OK just for starters you would need about a 100 years of background on Venezuela alone before making any salient observations. The purpose of the quote is to illuminate the wheel of memeology and how it can blow up in your face. Firstly Venezuela has been under sanctions since it fobbed off that wonky coup sponsored by the US back in the early 2000s, that photo opt of the Generalissimos they grabbed out of some bar still gives me giggles.

        Anywho like Germany and Zimbabwe trade shocks proceeded everything, hence if the trade shock induced by sanctions had not occurred the whole toilet paper meme would not have occurred. Something similar happened with flour, but the drama was dumping it Big difference in this case is the demand for toilet paper has nothing to do with supply and demand, its about irrational fear driving demand, so the next question is what or whom is driving it.

        BTW do you know anything about toilet paper mfg, because if your just deploying – in a box – deductive super powers to divine [tm] what is actually occurring your putting the pointy hat on volunteer like.

        Sorry champ but working a trading desk and inhaling AET is not much of a resume …..

        Lmmao at “the capitalist’ and supply and demand drives labour hire … tell it to Carnegie … he had to take a European holiday whilst the deed was done …

      • ahhh Skip, you just don’t don’t get it …. not everything can be explained by your complex references …

        you don’t have to go to the extremes of Zimbabwe …. just look at Sri Lanka post success of the first SLFP government – land appropriation amongst other ‘peoples’ policies’ … result, as I personally saw starting in ’77 when I first went there – corruptions everywhere, brought matches (remember those little pieces of wood with a red bit at the end?) soap all sorts of basics with me as the local stuff either wasn’t available or didn’t work most of the time …

        I personally saw the destruction of the island’s economy and the beginnings of the civil war (remember those ‘original modern terrorists’ the ‘Tamil Tigers’ who introduced to the world the wonders of suicide bombing????? and the funding of their war with the – according to Interpol – then world’s most efficient heroin smuggling ring into the EU???) …

        no Skip, not everything can be understood, let alone explained, by reference to Western / US competing schools of economics ideology and or philosophy ….

        • History is complex, trying to reduce it to ideological labels – is – the ideologues game. Per se Dominic attempts to – own – the term Capitalism in some ludicrous reductive monolith. Something that has never been and never will be except in the minds of its believers, hence why they are always promoting its just around the corner or triumphant in its short term results, but then deny its failures when it all blows up – dogma will do that too you …

  11. 1 case reported in Rockhampton Qld. Not my Dad edit.
    My Dad is in Dementia aged care in Rocky, I hold grave fears for his future 🙁
    Another case in another regional Qld town as well, I missed which one.
    Probably a few future cases in Townsville after the Cowboys Broncos game influx.

    • The fact that it’s in the regions now means that it’s likely rife in the metro areas – but testing is really very patchy still so no idea of scale.

      It’s been said before but we are cactus. Anyway, Scummo has ensured that this weekend the virus has a further opportunity to gain a foothold in this country before some lame attempt to contain it from Monday, so it’s all good.

      My parents are rooted if they get it — and I think they know it. Very depressing.

  12. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I have a theory that the reason why loads of well-known peeps are getting the virus is because it’s hit the relations parties including the really sick and reprehensible types of parties, if you know what I’m saying.

  13. Auction impact – unfounded speculation welcome. I posted this two weeks ago on the Saturday links, and the virus outbreak then had very little impact on clearance rates. As everyone who responded expected. But two weeks can be a long time when you’re dealing with an exponential function. So will clearance rates get the wobbles, or do we perhaps see the opposite effect from the virus outbreak? Will folks rush to the only risk free investment available and set off a new boom? Will money exiting the stock market crash flow to property?

    Options are –
    A. Nothing changes, auctions run hot, 77%
    B. Small sign of nerves enters the equation, but still looks pretty boomy, nothing to worry about, 72-76%
    C. Disturbance in the force. 65-72%, Unreported auctions look suspiciously high. Media blames it on the weather.
    D. Fear and loathing. Sub 65% clearance rates AND high unreported. Doc Wilson is forced to acknowledge the change in the market and summarises the situation: “This is a healthy outcome in a robust market. It needed to take a breather to prevent it getting over-heated. Rates cuts and stimulus will support the next round of growth.”

    This is for initial Sydney clearance rates, as released by Donain at 6pm.

    Two weeks ago I was confident there would be no impact but today I’m going for B. With a side serve of an increase in unreported numbers. And perhaps lower numbers of properties auctioned overall vs expected. Due to the weather, obviously.

    • My take is that you need to consider how the lurgy will affect various occupational groups and then look at whether they can work from home or end up unemployed. Consider how much debt each group carries. From there, will they keep the house or sell up?
      This could take a while to shake out.
      I anticipate more listings and fear of recession will smash the clearance rates.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          See my reply to Gav above, this person paid 7M for a unit in Manly. I will keep you all posted if it comes on the market soon and at what price.
          If a jumper was found next to the said building would that qualify as E.

      • There has been an unprecedented leverage-driven shake-out in the stock market these past two weeks. The dash for cash.

        This is where property is vulnerable: the OOs will largely sit tight – those who hang on to their jobs – but the IPs could be kicked out in a panic.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Can I put down ‘D’ please?

      Reckon there’s been a massive shift in thinking the last day or two. SEN listeners excepted of course.

      • Confirmed – one serve of Fear and Loathing for you, MB. Imagine how that will hit poor Scomo! His mate Dutto goes down with the virus one day, and the next his beloved property market collapses. He will be inconsolable.

        • Hill Billy 55MEMBER

          And if “his” sharks lose today that’ll be the triple whammy. Thoughts and prayers probably won’t even go close. Whocouldanode!

    • I think most people gearing up to buy at auction will stay on track this weekend. It takes weeks to find a property, get finance pre approval and inspections and develop an emotional attachment. People who have got this far for this weekend will probably push through. Needs a few more weeks yet before the thing freezes up.

      On the flip side any buyers who were holding deposit money in shares may be out of the running for now.

      One further factor may be an increased number of auctions this weekend compared to other weekends, due to normal seasonal variations (ie sweet spot before Easter). In CBR there are a lot of listings hitting the market right now, I think it is just seasonal. But nice to have a little flood just as fear might start picking up…

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        I think that was last week. This week is panic time. Everyone would be asking the question “is this the right move today or should we delay going all in?”
        I’m at C moving to D in the next 4 weeks. That share market drop was panic-ey

    • For anyone interested, an agent in the Adelaide Hills appears to have removed all listings from a single suburb. 5 listings all gone as on Thursday. Curious if more agents will follow, clearly will depend on many factors.

    • C with D to follow within 2 weeks.

      There will be some hoping to buy while “blood is in the streets” which in the fvckwit language means “all time highs”.

    • I’m going a “low B” thanks.
      As said above people are geared up and have put in the hard yards. However that lingering worry in the back of their minds and the very few who pull the pin will be enough to make everyone actually stick to their budget and/or remove the last silly edge of “competition”. So slightly down this weekend but a massive massive change during the week as those passed in are happy to settle for lower amounts and more and more stock is brought forward. Lock in next weekend for excuse central.

    • I vote B this weekend with some numberwang.

      In 6 weeks it will be D as there will be hardly any listings if we are shut down as expected no one will do anything marker will just shut down

    • I predict a shift away from auctions to sales with more online transparency. That is, more photos, more videos, and actual listed prices.

      Physical inspections kept to a minimum with possible introduction of a fee to keep away tyre kickers, and to cover the cost of masks and sanitation for anyone who wishes to inspect.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Freddy, 100% correct on your first sentence, this is what happened in previous recessions. What else happens is the price keeps going down till it hits a floor then the listings linger on for months or years.

        • BE, I know someone who went around offering 25-30% less than listed prices and built a portfolio that way. Everyone initially told him to f-off but some eventually grovelled back with a distressed sale.

          However, I do think it will be different this time because mortgage rates will be closer to 0% and banks will not be allowed to kick people out of their homes due to force majeure. People are also allowed early access to superannuation in times of financial hardship.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Freddy, correct again, different this time as you mentioned and never before in history did we have negative interest rates anywhere in the world, destroying and chance of prediction using history as a tool.
            Gov’t could confiscate a lot of things including gold, but probably not RE, that’s where Gav did the right thing.

          • Banks might not foreclose owner occupiers. But all those hoarding IPs might be a different story. Banks would be keen to liquidate those while there is still a market.

    • Most have no savings, two months without work should see properties listing, can the banks provide some support, I.e defer payments? Or they need the cash

    • C but moving to D in the next week or so. If I were still living there, there’s no way in hell I’d want people coming in and touching ANYTHING during the open homes. No way at all.

      • Actually this is a good point – we are entering an auction campaign (yes yes I know timing is the worst, long story) so I’ll make sure the agent manages this

    • I think the evidence is already in for me. D.

      A mate owns about 20 places in Melbourne inner suburbs, property bull, complete opposite to myself. Tells me like for like in the $1.5-2m bracket have literally overnight taken a $200K hit.

      I found it hard to believe with the apparent euphoria, but I can’t recall him being much of a bear in the past. He likes parking money in property (practically zero debt), but will not touch it with a bargepole at the moment.

      I noticed Neil Jenman has been very critical of auction data over the last few months – more than usual.

    • And it’s a “B”, 76% clearance rate. Reported rate looks better than usual actually, so the clearance rate is possibly no more massaged than it usually is?

        • Well that’s weird. I’m sure it was 76% when I first looked. Wish I’d screen-capped it. But I just checked now and you’re right Gav, it’s 73%. Anyone else see the change?

          • Results get updated multiple times so it’s not a surprise if they changed. The first report is early afternoon and then updates trickle in as the week goes on and the rate can be revised down etc.

  14. Does anybody else get the feeling that were gonna see some kind of action on Taiwan or the South Pacific soon? Maybe something with North Korea?

    This shiznit is certainly real, but is this all part of some massive distraction?

    • Well one strange thing has happened, we’ve all agreed / begged for the government to take away our civil rights.

      Supermarkets are now handing out food / TP in limited quantities like a prison camp canteen.

      Next step likely to be wages abolished and we get a stipend for good behaviour.

      • Just wait till we get internet censorship as the Govt moves to ‘ensure’ we get truthful, accurate news.

        There’s an awful lot of ‘misinformation’ out there on fringe blogs (which the public need protection from) as it hinders the ability of authorities to ‘address crises’. On deck soon …

    • Yes I do. My only reasoning: it’s a pattern in history whether it correlates with causation or not.

        • China, yes, because they have a real crisis. Russia, not so much. They look solid – no point upsetting the apple cart by becoming embroiled in an intractable and expensive war. Putin’s smarter than that.

    • I reckon (I have no evidence for this, just speculation based on like three dodgy news reports) that if you want to invade North Kore give it about another six weeks and you’ll be able to walk into the joint.

      I suspect Covid19 is ripping through the joint including the army like smallpox through Tenochtitlán.

      • You mean, everyone who contracts it will be executed and there’ll be no one left?

        Barring the dumpy Kim Jong, with a smoking revolver in his hand ..

        • Last one left is constitutionally obliged to strap himself to an anti-aircraft gun and press the button.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        I would have thought NK is one of the few place in the world that could enact a more effective isolation protocol than China.

        • Well, there is that. So yes. And Given it is winter, they’ll starve instead of dying of the virus. Which I suppose is business as usual.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        “…like smallpox through Tenochtitlán.”
        Beautiful turn of phrase arrow
        But i have to ask did you have to google for spelling

        • Why thank you 😁 and no I didn’t, I knew it, although I think my phone did too because it put the accent mark in by itself!

    • The opportunity is for economic nationalism/independence.

      Part of that is the opportunity is to restructure banks and fiscal spending. Cash bans, deep NIRP to alleviate govt debt repayments, more power to central banks. Skippy will get his MMT but it won’t be spent on him, it will be jobs programs to redeploy those who lose their job.

    • PalimpsestMEMBER

      I haven’t seen these videos before. The second one is of interest. I started 400 mg Hydroxychloroquine a couple of days ago while very aware of the side effects. Now I’ll add Zinc. I will need to allow a two week window of potential exposure by stopping it when the new flu vaccine is out to allow it and the pneumonia vaccine to ‘take’. Hydroxychloroquine is most effective if taken on first infection or prior. The effectiveness drops off markedly at later stages.

      The lopinavir/Ritonavir combination appears to work better with ribavirin that synergistically boosts lopinavir activity. One unsuccessful trial used half the lopinavir (200mg) and no ribavirin. The studies are not reporting well when they use ribavirin, so its importance is underestimated.

      How to decide who needs meds? At the moment CRP over 20 seems to be a very effective marker. In one study the majority of patients with very high CRP needed ventilation, and had the majority of undesired outcomes.

      Let me restate though – hydroxychloroquine does have side effects, less than chloroquine (not available in Oz anyway). Prolongs QT for example, has a lot of drug interactions, and potential permanent retinopathy (blindness) if taken over long period or high doses, and needs protection for eyes from sunlight. Only use on medical advice, informed by relevant testing and medical history.

      • truthisfashionable

        Could it be because daughter dear was exposed to confirmed virus (carrier) Dutton and now it’s finally ‘close to home’ he feels he needs to act?

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          I was thinking / hoping that young Trump gave it to Dutts.
          ScorotoVirus reckons the rules don’t apply to him or his Cabinet.
          Dutton’s test results were available to him same day, while the peons have to wait 5 days, if they are lucky enough to get tesed at all.
          I hope they have the “B” team lined up and ready to take over on Monday.

  15. So the Fed’s plans to give money to the banks to buy Treasuries came to nothing again last night so they will have to buy them themselves. They certainly bought a pile of S & P 500 e-minis. Banks not talking to each other either. Nobody has enough dollars…..DXY to the moon.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/something-breaking-fed-fails-ease-epic-dollar-shortage-fraois-goes-parabolic

    This long Treasury business happened in 2008 as well but we had all forgotten…..it is a sign of the size of the crisis……nothing that $10 trillion in QE won’t fix when the Yanks finally get into gear

    https://alhambrapartners.com/2020/03/13/chaos-curve-stocks-and-long-bonds-arent-actually-diverging-right-now/

    Continental Europe infection numbers chasing down Italy now……US about 10 days behind

    https://twitter.com/RemiGMI/status/1238399793162072066

    • Only 10T??? These days, post on the GFC shambles, we can imagine that number in our head. It’s possibly going to be some number we cannot now imagine – they have a record for this.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        I have trouble imagining $10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, zzz,zzz,zzz,zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz snore

  16. Mining BoganMEMBER

    It’s a lot easier for everyone when the decision is taken out of your hands. I was due to do a triathlon on Sunday but was going to inform them today that I was pulling out because WuFlu. But even though I’ve been preparing for shut-in like behaviour…nay, highly recommending it…it was still a decision I was umming and ahhing about. Don’t know why, it just felt like some sort of duty to soldier on even when all facts and logic scream otherwise. Anyway, they’ve cancelled the event and it was such a sense of relief that the decision was taken away from me.

    I think that makes me rather sheep like.

    • I think it makes you human. Chris Martenson’s daily update yesterday went through the process of reacting to crises/new threats. Most people here are way ahead of the crowd but it’s still a non linear process where we go back and forward between different stages. https://youtu.be/ogf6Hru2trE
      Given I wanted to start shutting myself in 2 weeks ago I’d say I’m quite advanced in dealing with it but I know I haven’t really processed the possibility of my mortality. I had fish and chips at the beach earlier this week when i was finally well enough. But I really want to do it again tonight. I’ll meet no one there, can phone my order in and quickly pick it up. But what if the kitchen staff have it? I have told myself not to do it but I really want to do it one last time. Argh this whole thing is going to be really hard

      • Seems pretty unlikely you’d catch it from hot fresh cooked food, that sort of heat usually kills pathogens. Pay with payWave card (contactless) don’t pick up coins! Maybe if you buy a bottle of drink and the staff hand it to you, you’d be a chance of picking it up from that. The ultra cautious approach would be to bring along a pack of those disinfectant wipes and just given the bottle a wipe and your hands too, before eating.

        PS The lemon slice might be an issue…

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          We used to have lemon in hot beverage to kill off flu, so maybe the lemon may not be an issue unless it was an old wife’s tale/ remedy.

          • Yeah, for sure, I think the old remedy was legit: honey (antibacterial) and lemon (vitamin C) but I was more thinking about not touching the outside of the lemon peel which the shop person might have touched.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Yep honey was the medium, what I meant was the finger touch potency on the lemon may unnuled due to the combined anti bacterial/virus properties. I have a sneaky suspicion that the acetic acid has also some antiviral benefits as well.

        • I picked up a takeaway last night and the young lady who normally serves me – a fragrant and pleasant Uni age sort – literally dumped the takeaway bag as I reached to take it from her and backed away. Just before that, a guy had walked in to pick up, saw me, checked his momentum and shuffled several steps to the side so as not to be close to me.

          I thought farck, is this how it’s going to be from now on. Thankfully this morning at kids sport everyone was a bit more relaxed and parents all sat huddled quite close. The kids can’t shake hands anymore – they have to touch elbows! Or give a thumbs up. Surreal times.

          • Sounds v sensible. Yeah I’ve been behaving like that for a week or two for practice.

        • Don’t forget – food may be hot enough to kill pathogen but what about the packaging, the napkin and cutlery you didn’t ask for, accidentally touching the countertop/door handle/surfaces in general and touching your face plus potentially being coughed/sneezed on in public…. infection vectors are everywhere. Anyone with pre-existing conditions should probably be super cautious right now. Sorry poppy but “No fish for you!!! Next!!!!!”

          • I think the risk would have been pretty low but I followed your advice and stayed at home (was pretty tired anyway). I did my own sort of fish and chip meal with salad and a really nice glass of rose so I can’t complain. Plus I can always get to the empty beach when I have the energy now I’m not working. I just have to accept I’m in hard self isolation. There are worse things!

          • Mmm home cooked is always better Poppy. And with rose, so much better lol. I may be over the top but had to stop in at mum and dads the other day and I pretty much assembled a hobo hazmat suit as I didn’t want to pass anything I may have to them in the very short time I went in and out of the shed to collect stuff, no direct contact. I’d rather be paranoid and wrong….

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        I have started wearing disposable rubber gloves when shopping.
        completed lock down activities today.
        Seedlings , potting mix, chook feed. Vege garden prepared, 6 weeks supply of spag Bols in new deep freeze, 6 cases of wine in cellar.
        Lismore was aghost town this morning.

        • I bought a small deep freeze 3 years ago and it has cahnged my life, as well as making pandemic prepping much easier. I batch cook bolognese, curry, stew, all sorts of flavoured minces and then cakes and slices. Portion it all and have the easiest, cheapest and fairly appetising work lunches sorted. I also buy whole chickens and cuts of meat when on super special and it reduces my regular shopping to only fresh fruit and vegetables. I did my pandemic shopping at the start of February and it was mostly just top ups of dried goods and then heaps of fresh stuff that I topped up again yesterday, won’t shop again for 1-3 months depending on what pans out.

    • Physically, personally, emotionally invested in a habitual routine that you don’t want to break is pretty normal. There was a test about outsourcing/sharing hard decisions to others done in the 50’s involving electric shocks. Someone else might remember the name of it.

    • here’s something else for you MB (sheepish or not) to consider – along with everyone whose prepared to acknowledge that the current system in really, really broken:

      https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-exploit-control-of-pharmaceutical-exports-by-brahma-chellaney-2020-03?a_la=english&a_d=5e6b5dd439cf2352ac15ea44&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Farchive&a_li=china-exploit-control-of-pharmaceutical-exports-by-brahma-chellaney-2020-03&a_pa=&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=&utm_source=CapX+briefing&utm_campaign=2228b57cb8-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_07_17_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b5017135a0-2228b57cb8-241886837

      if Western nations can’t understand that we are collectively held by the short and curlies by China’s control of the world’s pharmaceutical production and what that means for all of us … well, I give up. There is ignorance and wilful stupidity … it seems to me that ‘wilful stupidity’ is more prevalent ….

  17. This is a sick market. S&P500
    5 days of limit ups and down with greater than 5% swings. 9% up on Friday. Monday is going to be interesting

    • Yes. I’m currently treating it like i used to regard the crypto market back in 2018. Fascinating to watch, wouldn’t touch it with a borrowed plank.

  18. There is one sure indicator that a crisis has passed – the good people of macrobusiness + shut ins confidently declaring it’s all over for the property market.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Getting it wrong is what we do, and comfortable habits can be soothing in times of crisis.

    • Property will never go down is still a pretty popular opinion around here, even winning a few recent converts despite corona popping up.

      • Bcnich would say it can’t fall until everyone agrees it can’t fall. That shows the bubble has peaked and then it will crash.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Hate it when one of us disappears, still waiting for Afund to reappear allaying fears of a cycling/car incident

          • The crowds are looking for bcnich…we are less than 500 so you can join! Bcnich bcnich bcnich

          • bolstroodMEMBER

            5th April utter low point Solar minimum.
            Astrogically, (OK, it might sound strange to some of you) “Jupiter will conjoin Pluto in Capricorn, exactly on 5th April, again on 30th June, and once more on November 13, to start a 13 year Jupiter/ Pluto cycle.
            Two strong energies meet, one wanting to go to the heights (Jup.) while the other draws to the depths.( remeniscent of the stock market lately)
            The last time Jupiter and Pluto got together like this was December 2007, in Sagittarius just before the start of the GFC.”
            It coincidently meshes with bcnich’s Solar minimum call , like bcnich I just see the patterns and “coincidences”, i don’t understand it..It makes as much sense as any other predictions that are being made.
            I hope you are looking in on MB bcnich, we miss your input.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Maybe you can answer the question then: how often do these supposedly significant astrological events occur without a corresponding disaster in the societies that subscribe to those interpretations ?

  19. Time to ask for compensation from China for the WuFlu, maybe that nice embassy official can make a statement about how sorry China are and how they are going to compensate the rest of the world for the mess they have made!

      • Yeah, & now their lackys the WHO are saying the EPICENTRE is Europe! It wasn’t Wuhan! CCP propaganda written all over that WHO statement.

    • This… Is a problem.
      I’m beginning to imagine the possibility that there may come a point where removing the viral threat comes at such cost that we’re forced to part ways with mitigation measures.

  20. migtronixMEMBER

    Trump hates socialism so much he gives trillions away to billionaires. Not you! No no that would be socialism.

    Its all such a lie and so broken.

      • JohnR …

        Neoliberalism at its core was always a class based ideology which sought to create a two tier society, both esoteric and pseudoscience aspects to give it that faux gravitas E.g. Economic Science [tm] et al.

  21. ScoMos not self quarantining, Saturday morning, but Ivanka has ?
    You thought he couldnt do a worse job after the fires.

      • It wasn’t the virus that spooked her … they don’t call him Creepy Pete for nothing.

    • Didn’t they also say that Trudeau and Trump wouldn’t be tested? It must be some sort of secret government protocol that they never admit to testing the Supreme Leader. I don’t believe for a second that they haven’t tested Scummo.

      Maybe because if they test, they have to admit whether it was positive or negative, and they really don’t want to admit it was positive.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Well, Fairfax is Costello, News is Rupert and Seven is Stokes – all batting for LNP.

        • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

          In the six months leading to the election, Fairfax sent very mixed messages.

          Labor are great but you should vote for LNP.

          Australians should boycott Fairfax. They’re killing us.

          You could bet there was a deal to allow the amalgamation of 9 and Fairfax.

      • The same people who said this was just the flu, that pandemic talk was alarmist, that this would all just fizzle out pretty quickly and that we needed to think about the economy first and foremost are now instructing us on how we should manage the pandemic.

        No thanks.

        • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

          Never stop the $$$$$ flowing until people are dying in the streets, and it’s only stopped then because of belated public pressure.

          LNP, Labor, media, all the same thing. Wreck them or lose our country.

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          The Climate Catastrophe was like that, remember?
          What did happen to the Climate Catastrophe , eh ?
          There are small signs of it if you look.
          Ballina in the Northern rivers has about 12 streets that flood through the storm drains every full moon tide.
          If the world economy stops for 6 months the pollution in the upper atmosphere that is acting like a heat shield will disipate leading to a .5 C degree increase in global temps.

      • If you took an X-ray of ScoMo’s colon you’d see part of Hartcher’s tongue in the frame.

    • Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

      Maybe he will give it to the other attendants of his cabinet? Would that help or harm their performance?

  22. Got an urgent email from super fund asking people not to withdraw money and stay calm.
    Not sure that will comfort people especially if you have been oblivious to the situation. Retirees pulling money out will be the next disaster

  23. At least the Labor party are being responsible, they self quarantined a month ago, never to be seen or heard of again.

  24. “Mr Dutton was in the US to finalise a deal with the White House to give Australian law enforcement better access to data held by US companies”

    No warrant required because we’ve agreed to the company T&C’s. Everyone is now a suspect until proven innocent.

    • +1m The EU has something called the General Data Protection Regulation that protects their consumers from that sort of activity.

        • Well yes, what I meant is that it protects the individual and goes after companies that in any way monitor the behavior of any individual that is in the EU, even if that monitoring is just accessing info from advertising cookies. The companies do not have to be in the EU so it picks up all the US (and Chinese) digital platforms. It is the gold standard for protection of online privacy. At the end of last year the Californians passed legislation that was based on the GDPR.

    • This is fvcking nuts. Is there anyway to contact this d1ckhead directly. The teachers union should be going on strike right now to protect there staff members, plenty of them are old and will die if they catch this thing.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        That d.ckhead as you so called is Mark Scott, ex CEO of our ABC and before that a Fairfax senior executive and husband to Briony Scott, who is the principal of a Girls Private School in Sydney.

    • There might be some truth in this. Pre-teens will stay at home, but healthy teenagers will not resist the temptation to be out and about. Closing the schools only makes sense if you also close the shops, movie theatres, bowling alleys, etc. as was done in Europe and New York.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        What about the back alley, the beach and don’t forget to lock away the old plastic milk crates outside the now closed corner store

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      he actually has a point. Shutting down schools without a government enforced, city wide quarantine policy will just send the kids elsewhere. In fact, it will be worse as many of the health department staff will now need to stay home to look after their children, meaning health services and teams everywhere (plus all kinds of other critical services) will lose staff who now need to stay home.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        While your points are valid, even without a city wide ban, closing the school will reduce the number of infected because a person don’t have a social circle of 1000+ (Reusa is an exception), but most school have over 1000 students. The shared toilet will be a very potent infection point.

      • His point is only valid on the assumption that kids go elsewhere instead but hopelessly wrong if kids understand the reason for closure and act accordingly

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          good point. there would be some % of children that did go to public places but many would likely stay home. At least for most of the time.

      • The quiet word is that it’s already running through the schools here in SE QLD but schools are keeping it quiet so as not to stigmatise the pupils concerned. They’ll have to fold soon enough and probably close. This is going to evolve rapidly over the next couple of weeks by the feel of things.

  25. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    And had to go to the Brisbane Roar game last night as I guess we’ll be shut out in the coming weeks. Only 4,121 people there, so back to the old NSL numbers. Still, Brisbane got a win and we’re up to 4th on the table.

    • Got Fowler completely wrong, thought he was clueless but last night it looked like the old Roarcelona days.

    • On the telly it looked like the game was being played to an empty stadium. Glad Robbie’s come good — if the Roar had started at a canter it would probably have been an ‘Ole’ flash in the pan and we’d be languishing at the bottom of the ladder.

  26. Can we get another John Adams vs Chris Joye debate now that COVID-19 is here? It’s a shame that it isn’t a normal financial meltdown. And that it is caused by this virus. Where people are actually going to die.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The Australian government is still treating it as a financial crisis rather than a virus pandemic.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        I reckon you are seeing ‘management’

        Once upon a time old style technocrats and public servants would have been banging on about bringing things under ‘control’ but they were mainly replaced ages ago. Nobody looks to control things any more, they ‘engage’ and ‘manage’. Lots of them even have pieces of paper called MBA.

        One of the things the MBA and ‘management’ process is big on is about ‘stakeholders’ – and usually that enables the ‘managers’ to pick off the potentially or actually miffed one by one and subordinate, inveigle or bullshit them in the interests of ‘management’ which invariably has ‘financial interests’ (as individuals and as a collective) close to their hearts. At this point you will note they dont often use ‘economic interests’ – because that starts to imply data, analysis and the involvement of more people as stakeholders. They prefer this vague unspoken, unidentified, unquantified, nebulously plausible as beneficial for everyone sense of the ‘financial interests of everyone’ when any form of analysis, quantification, and involvement starts to quite clearly point to the financial interests of a very small number of people/organisations and the actual ‘managers’ themselves.

        So in this instance we have a Commonwealth government, State governments, a load of psychopath senior public servants – state and commonwealth, loads of quasi public servants funded by the taxpayer one way or another, and a number of fairly direct private sector beneficiaries of government outlays and government policies – often in the form of private sector organisations bolted via ‘contracted services’ – all wanting to remain at the public teat in as uninterrupted a form as possible for as long as possible, with as little data or public disclosure as possible – which poses a ‘perception risk’ to them – in the public domain about their activities.

        The whole response to this virus outbreak (and the bushfires over summer) has been about ‘management’ – and associated with ‘perception management’, stakeholder ‘engagement’ and ‘flexibility’ and the complete avoidance of ‘responsibility’ ‘control’ and the dissemination of accurate data in the public domain as quickly and as early as possible to enable individuals to shape their own responses. Its all been about money, and the need to ensure that those with the biggest places on the teat keep getting their slops while the rest of us wear the ‘risks’.

        • perfect summary Gunna – unfortunately also shows how clearly the language, when corrupted, leads to truly terrible outcomes for the entire population …

          I’d like to think the pandemic may bring about changes but I’m not holding my breath …

  27. Has anyone else noticed that the more likely that peeps are to be affected by the covid-19 the more conspiracy theories you hear? A few friends were dropping them last night. A week ago they impartially curious.

      • Some are. Others are just peeps I bump into as I go about life. My guess is that they are trying to make sense of it and because they don’t have a lived reference point they are grabbing stuff that they read or hear and using that.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        This can’t be happening.
        You chunts!
        Ah fvck it’s all so hopeless.
        Maybe you chunts’ll get it not me.
        Such is life.

  28. https://www.foxnews.com/media/governor-dewine-100k-believed-to-have-cv-in-ohio-number-will-double-every-six-days

    Governor of Ohio believes there are 100,000 cases in the state

    5 deaths

    who is going to get a calculator out?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-13/about-half-of-cruise-virus-cases-asymptomatic-study-suggests

    Half the diamond princess cases had no symptoms. Of the half that did, we know many were very mild
    Here is a cohort that was exhaustively tested for the virus, so we got a true reflection of the actual number of cases and the actual mortality rate
    Mortality <1% (in a VERY elderly cohort https://eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180)

    I have had a runny nose and sore throat all week
    No fever and no contact with known cases and no overseas travel, so I didn't qualify for testing

    The mortality rate is being way overstated because the incidence of infection is being way understated, and everyone here is going to look very foolish in a few months if it passes with only a few thousand deaths in Australia (literally a bad flu)

    How can I take the contrarian side on a financial bet though?
    People's reactions are more significant to markets than the actual reality of the virus

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      You must be a troll for not going along with the supreme negative Nancy paranoid sect on here!

    • Happy to read differing views – but if you are correct and many more people have it and the mortality rate is lower what happens if……..this thing is so super contagious that close to 100% will get it. A low mortality rate still means an overwhelmed system and many many deaths – doesn’t that mean the same outcome?

      • Correct. Say you have 30% of the population identified as infected and of these you get a 3.3% mortality rate. Well guess what, that’s the same number of dead people as if 100% of people get it and “only” 1% die.

        Same outcome. Still means 75 million people would die (global pop is 7.5 billion).

        Worth noting also that current cases dead v cases cured gives a mortality rate just above 7%.

        Oh PS Upper estimates of global flu deaths each year are a tiny fraction of this: 290,000-650,000 – source: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

      • hard to model when you have no idea what the actual infection rate and mortality rate are

        Look at the diamond princess

        634 positive cases out of 3711 passengers and crew (17%)

        Majority of the cases were >60years old (very old Cohort, who supposedly should have high mortality)

        Even then the mortality rate was 0.9%
        All 8 deaths were in over 70s

        So in the general Australian population (where the average age is 37.9), the mortality rate is going to be much much lower

        If you claim that was only because there were no overwhelmed ICUs, and so everyone got adequate care, then bear in mind that the hospitalisation rate was also low, and again even this was exaggerated by the elderly average age of 60

        https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf

        This group used the data to estimate age adjusted mortality will be between 0.5-1.1%

        Again, the flu is 0.1%

        Now is it really the catastrophe you are making out?

        • Reverse Transcriptase

          I think you’ll find the mortality rate will be a lot higher in Indigenous patients, and at younger ages.

        • Season Flu mortality is 0.01%. You are confusing it with case fatality rate which is 0.1%. 90% of flu infections are Asymptomatic due to exiting immunity (80%) or mild enough that they don’t get diagnoses. The Cruise ship indicates that 50% of cases were asymptomatic, but that is also age related. Now consider the fact that Australia has half a million people over the age of 80 with estimated mortality of 10-15% so you are looking at 50k deaths alone. Now consider the comorbidity of the typical baby boomer who is overweight, crap diet, high smoking incidence, underlying heart disease and high blood pressure, and diabetes. By the time they get to hospital with shortness of breath they are past the stage that antivirals are effective. Flu hospitalisation rate is 0.5%, covid19 is 10-20%, except the whole community can get sick at once. Now consider the fact Australia only has 2000 ICU bed and the staff to man them. Stop underestimating the danger this poses. Italy had 3 cases 3 weeks ago now they are burying 250 a day. Wuhan got shut down at 270 cases and 17 deaths. Italy’s peak death rate in 2-3 weeks could be anywhere between 1000 and 10000 deaths per day. Australia had 1000 deaths total for flu last year. Hopefully we can find some effective antivirals to dramatically lower this death rate.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      1266/17660 is 7%. That’s the death rate in Italy right now.

      If we can keep the total number of infected in Australia under 1000, our death rate will be around 1%. If we can’t, it’ll be around 10%. The number of available ICU spots available is the deciding factor.

      • no the mortality rate in italy is far less than that, because the number of cases is grossly underestimated

        I wouldn’t be surprised if the virus has already peaked (though the number of cases may go up as more people are tested)

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          The confirmed cases matter because we are following the same lax approach as Italy. It is a forward indicator.

          A collapsed hospital system means everyday emergency treatment for other things like heart attacks doesn’t happen. Doctors and nurses die from virus exposure.

          So even if the disease has infected the entire susceptible population, the number of people needing treatment will continue to rise for weeks after the peak infection is reached. And the hospital system will continue to degrade.

          it seems to me you firmly believe what you believe, and no concern for the data or the lives of other people will change your mind.

          Let’s talk in 4 weeks, if you are right I’ll buy you carton of beer. How about it? Are you prepared to back your views with a carton of beer?

          • if total Australian deaths are >20,000 by the end of the year I will buy you a carton of beer

            If <20,000 you buy me a carton?

            Bear in mind average flu season deaths 1200 to 3000 depending on which stats you go by

            EDIT: had to change the numbers to reflect a bad flu season

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            No worries. Will be very happy to be wrong about disease, availability of effective treatment and government response.

            Also happy if you donate cost of carton of beer to charity of your choice instead.

            Edit: if effective treatment arrives at some point, the outcome will change and numbers will reduce, and you’ll still get your carton 😀

          • Using your own logic Coming the 20,000 is way too high – they won’t count many of the deaths as Covid because they either wont test or will claim it is something else (esp for elderly). Then there is the number of related deaths like the heart attack/motor accidents not treated because of the lack of resources.
            If you say 3,000 is a big year – back yourself and make the bet for anything over 6,000.
            BTW – I sincerely hope you are right.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            The measure should be the difference between the total mortality in Oz 2019 vs total mortality 2020.

            It’s the second order health service issues that will bump up numbers.

            I hope you win Coming.

            (I know a bet seems trite in the circumstances and very morbid. It is a good way of focusing thinking. We use it in my company to settle heated technical arguments between staff, before we have to bet the company’s income on the final choice.)

          • C3PO – everyone with a severe respiratory illness, who is on the point of death, will get tested for coronavirus and everything else under the sun
            That is how critical care works

            The number of Covid-related deaths will certainly not be underestimated

            It is the denominator that will be underestimated
            A) because we don’t have enough kits
            B) half the infected patients are completely asymptomatic according to the cruise ship data
            C)those who have minor symptoms but jobs, kids at school etc will not want to be tested because they wont want to be quarantined

            3000 is one statistic reported for an average year (though others give 1200)

            I think in order to justify the outright flat panic that has gripped the world, we need to see multiples of either of those numbers

          • China PlateMEMBER

            “if total Australian deaths are >20,000 by the end of the year…”
            Coming will be going

        • bolstroodMEMBER

          Testing is looking increasinglyproblematic.
          We never prepared for this.
          “I’ve just been getting some reaction from the Australian medical bodies to the letter sent by the chief medical officer Prof Brendan Murphy to doctors warning them of extreme pressure on personal protective equipment stock, and shortages of testing kits.

          Murphy wrote that “Pathology collection centres have also experienced large backlogs in testing appointments in some parts of Australia, and emergency testing facilities have had to be established in some areas to ensure that urgent patients can get access to testing”.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      there was only 500 cases a week ago. they predict based on modelling that there is 100k cases minimum.

      the virus is most deadly once health systems are swamped but it still takes time to kill you. Most of those 100k people may not even have any symptoms yet.

      from many of your other posts, you know how maths actually works so can only assume you’re being deliberately deceptive with the question.

      • Not at all

        You have missed the point

        The number of CONFIRMED cases is going up

        The number of ACTUAL cases may have already peaked in Italy

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          those 100k cases are not confirmed. watch the interview. it’s a prediction based on modelling. they didn’t run several hundred thousand tests in one state in one week to find another 99,950+ infected people

          and they only had 500 confirmed cases last week. so again, wait for the incubation period and then wait to see how many people start turning up to health services at the same time and see how the health services deal with numbers they were never designed to manage. then, in 3-4 weeks let’s compare the number of deaths in ohio with the number of predicted infected from this date.

        • PalimpsestMEMBER

          While I understand your point, it’s a bit early to call. The ‘normal’ R0 (transmission factor) appears to be 2.7. In the confined space of a cruise ship it is estimated to be R0 of 13. The Wuhan and Italy measures may bring it below the natural rate, and if it dips below 1 then the disease is reducing growth. Nowhere yet, however, has it been eliminated, even with the most draconian measures. Merely the rate of spread has been either slowed, or left unconstrained. The likely mortality is actually quite a complex discussion, but some quick thoughts. The Chinese age mortality figures showing high mortality in older males may be related to smoking (stimulates ACE2 receptors). Female chinese smoke significantly less. However, in the West there is undiagnosed diabetes and certainly insulin resistance, and obesity at a much higher rate. All risk factors tend to increase with age. For those that do get really sick, oxygen and/or ventilator support is critical to survival. And this is why the total infected at one time really does matter to the death toll. Overwhelmed system = people die. lower total = more people live. 640 people on a ship – we can handle that (just). Thousands in one location, not so much.

          So is my long term survival best served by going early, perhaps joining a church and taking shared communion (thanks @mining Bogan), attending every crowd, and thereby getting allocated a ventilator, or managing infection well and only getting it at the tail end of the season when supplies have ramped up and pressure on the system reduced? Certainly getting it at the peak of both the COVID and Flu season is the least optimal.

          I admire your style @Coming, but I think this virus will have its wicked way with us, reasoning or not.

          • Reverse Transcriptase

            There are many many mishaps that can occur in the process of getting intubated and being put on a ventilator much less being in an ICU and in any given situation you can find yourself being a “numerator in search of a denominator” i.e FVCKED. Also, the question of actuality getting immunity post infection and longer term health effects are not known.

            Trying to avoid the virus is the most rational overall strategy but everyone’s risk appetite differs of course.

        • Peak infection should be 1-2 weeks post quarantine after people have developed symptoms and infected their household.

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      CMO is apparently saying that we are running short on testing materials so people will only be tested if they have prospect of a positive test. The reverse cull process is in motion?

    • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

      The bet option has already passed. Markets have positioned for the worst, there’s now a vaccine pending compliance in Israel, and U.S. markets went nuts overnight while the AUD collapsed.

      • There are almost a dozen vaccines already in testing phase – testing phase takes MINIMUM 12 months.

        Read up.

        • Totes BeWokeMEMBER

          Yeah, I did read up. The news is Israel is in testing and compliance is 3 months away.

          They’ll test it on old people.

          Read up.

          • Narapoia451MEMBER

            Absolute best case compliance is 3 months away, no guarantee it’ll pass phase 3 trials, like the vast majority of pharma trials. Even it it does, how long is it going to take to spin up production to be producing the millions of doses required to make a difference? Absolute, perfect world minimum November but far likely longer. Read up

          • Compliance is three months away – really. Why just flat out bullsh1t – whats the point ?

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      Thanks for the post Coming. What’s been clear to me is the overwhelming level of propaganda assicated with this virus. That’s not to say there is no serious concerns, but my sense is there is a whole different agenda running with the scaremongering going on worldwide. I dont know why this is and I dont know how much of a real problem the virus is. But sober facts and considerations are thin on the ground. My own view is that I’m more concerned with avoiding normal colds and flu’s than Corona and so happy that everyone is being more cautious about spreading. Also looking for ways to play my view financially, not clear yet.

    • Go for it – selectively choosing data like that is just absurd.

      WHO has already stated – death rate is well above 3%.

      Those comparing it to the flu saying there are many more unreported cases – forget – there are way more unreported cases of the common flu.

      Ohio had 50 cases last Thursday and 100,000 one week later – it takes 5 days at least for people to die from this. So there’s your answer champ.

      And the Diamond Cruise patients were transferred to hospitals – we had two of the passengers parents in our school and were keeping up to date with them daily.

      Japan has some of the best facilities on earth – so no question things weren’t as bad.

      Italy is our base case and more than likely MUCH better than Australia – they have responded fast and hard. But their system is completely overwhelmed and people are dropping like flies.

      Here is what you just do not get – simply do not understand at all – like almost everything.

      We know the data – so here it is plain and simple for a simpleton.

      60-70% of community to get the disease within next 3 months. 16.5 Million

      10% to require ICU being critical. 1.65 Million

      Australia has the capacity of 3,000 ICU beds.

      That is a shortfall of 1.647 million beds mate – think about those numbers for a second.

      Right now – Italy will not treat any person over the age of 65 – its a straight up death sentence for people who get seriously ill over that age. Nor people with organ transplants, chronic illness, cancer, immune problems, diabetes, existing respiratory problems, obesity, heart, lung and cardio vascular problems.

      You have absolutely no idea what you are gassing on about – its just like listening some old blathering boomer ranting about how global warming is a myth – it really is just pathetic.

      • Lenny Hayes for PMMEMBER

        Itchy Balm – to play the devils advocate then, why didn’t that happen in Hubei province in regards to mass deaths as a result of non-available treatment ?. Fatalities were high but not to the metrics you are quoting.

        Unless of course you feel the numbers can’t be trusted.

        • It’ll all be clear in 12 months time. Just compare total deaths in 2019 to 2020. And bingo there will be the number of people who died from Covid 19 and the from other causes who didn’t get the care they otherwise would have which would have saved their life. There is the population death rate and the case fatality rate. The case fatality rate will be impossible to know until possibly a decade later, if ever, because we will never know for certain the exact number of cases. However it is pretty obvious that this is really bad news, unfortunately it started in a country built on lies whose case number data can not be trusted (I live in China for 17 years, this is the most true thing I know in life except for the sun rising in the east) therefore all nations should be preparing accordingly. Quibbling over the exact level of serivity atm is an exercise in futility and denial.

        • Because China has for more capacity to deal with it, far better facilities and more of them.

          A good way of looking at it is compare China’s bullet train network with Americas – yeah – exactly.

          They also flew in 30,000 doctors to deal with it. Australia has 47,000 GPs.

    • Sore throat and runny nose?

      Why , that could be NOTHING but the CV

      Or maybe a bog standard rhinovirus

      Or maybe the seasonal flu

      Carry on though!

    • Confirmation bias — a terrible disease afflicting people whose wealth and/or livelihoods revolve around the sustaining of a large property bubble — Wiki —

  29. Arthur Schopenhauer

    The hardest part of self-isolation is a bored 5 year old…

    Wife’s work says stay home until my test results arrive. Primary school doesn’t know what to do. We’re going to keep our 5 year old at home.

    I was furious that the Iranian woman sent her kid to my next door neighbors school, but now I’ve been through the ‘process’ it’s clear the schools have no advice as to what to do. And the Iranian woman was probably waiting for test results to come back. It’s up to the tested person to make the call!

    (If not, the communication to Doctors & schools is very poor.)

    It might be similar to Hep-A. Kids carry it but not affected. If that’s the case, schools are a large vector.

    Symptoms come and go. Weirdest flu-like illness I’ve ever had. Most unusual symptoms are a stabbing sensation in big muscles 💪, thighs, back and upper arm and sweaty flushed face with watering eyes. Like overextending yourself in the gym or riding 300km in a day ( or a zombie movie 😀👍). No fever. No breathing difficulties to date, so should be OK.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Self isolation is not actually policy. It is a cop out when you don’t have a policy.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        All the doctors in GP practice were visibly angry and venting about the Vic governments handling of the crisis.

        • Is anyone surprised they’ve handled it poorly? The average pollie has a very average intellect — most of these realised they wouldn’t make a go of it in the private sector and saw the only way to feather their nest would be on the public dime, followed by a stint selling influence afterwards.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Itchy Balm, completely agree. The idiocy in Australia’s largest enterprises is stunning. No better than what we are witnessing in government.
            That’s what get with a 30 year boom and no industrial sector.

          • @Itchy Balm
            I don’t think you remotely understand the significance of what you’re saying and indeed the consequences if true.

      • The “self” part says it all. Even our arrogant fvckwit of a Prime Minister won’t self isolate after being in contact with a carrier; there’s no requirement to. What message does that send to the franking credits loving supporters? Anecdotally there are, should say were, many LNP supporters who are openly criticising the handling of CoVid.

    • Good luck! I just can’t believe that the Chief Medical Officer is not believing all the evidence from overseas of asymptomatic transmission, this is very clear from him saying Scovid doesn’t need to self-isolate. That just does my head in. They are willfully not accepting Chinese scientific discoveries. Fvckw1ts

  30. happy valleyMEMBER

    ScoMo watch – he’s not going to the game of his beloved Sharkies, but are there any updates about his supposed attendance this weekend at some gig of his beloved Hillsongers?

  31. this is a complete cluster.

    leaving individual companies/gov agencies/schools to decide their policy on their own is a disaster. government should have called it a week ago. everything is closed except essential services (ie not public schools/unis).

    my wife is a uni professor and just got an email asking how she’d go about teaching online. the uni is one of the Go8 and has had a month to work out the practicalities of online delivery – but they concentrated on lobbying against border closures instead.

    • That sounds about right. Yesterday I passed on a list of all my work from home computing requirements. It involves access to quite a bit of specialised software and servers where group licenses are stored. There’s no way they can make it happen in a week. Especially with the recent upgrade in security which has made on site work difficult at times.

    • UNSW used to have 14-week semesters. If the lecturer got sick, or some other emergency arose, then classes could be canceled for one or two weeks and there would still be enough time to catch up on the material. Now, with 10-week terms, this flexibility (which some would call “inefficiency”) has been removed from the system.

      • i can’t help but think unis are trying to push through to their census date before going into lockdown so students on HELP don’t decide that they will just give this semester a miss as well.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      “my wife is a uni professor…”
      Married to one that hangs out on Macrobusiness, surely you jest

    • People must have really secured jobs. You would think most people working in the financial sector would be sweating right now. Low IR makes banks incredibly unprofitable. Would expect to see massive layoffs.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        A recent ex banker told me yesterday that the big 4 will have to increase the collections area headcount but will continue and increase their headcount cull in other areas.

    • Housing will lag maybe by 2-3 months. Most people have no idea about financial markets and are only aware of coronavirus because of Tom Hanks and the footy stopping.

      Give it time.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Historically property also has a long lag time vs the share market (which makes sense given the difference in liquidity and speed of execution). This weekend I wouldn’t be surprised to see it is “Situation Normal” and prices even rise as all the selller and bidders are all locked in. Give it three to fours months and we’ll start to see the cracks. The RE Market is like turning around an oil tanker.

      Mind you, even the MFAS crowd are waking up that this is this is serious. Hell, they are going to cancel the AFL!! WTF!?

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        Work stopped for US based companies in 2007. But Australia didn’t really feel it until early 2008.

        Edit: misremembered the dates.

      • Disagree.

        Real estate was imploding before this started – despite macrobusiness and corelogics incessant spruik.

        The data was ridiculously rigged – we had maybe three weeks towards the end with genuine growth – outside of that it was all ridiculous volumes (less than 1/6th of 2017 volumes).

        The Bushfires had put a knife through all of regional, coastal Australia, the apartment industry was completely cactus.

        The only real indicator we had of how much VALUE had “bounced” back into the markets was the actual tax taken from NSW state government stamp duty – and that showed something like less than 5% increase off a 40% fall.

        And thats the sort of data we are seeing 10% rises in house prices (*off 30-40% falls).

        AirBnB data is an excellent indicator – inside air bnb allows you to download the data – get at it.

        Real Estate will be buried within the fortnight (sales and auctions) no WAY people will start buying.

        And here is the real kicker – Real Estate agents and boomers tend to REFUSE to drop their prices, because its real estate. But when things are dire, stock market has crashed – and no one is buying, or turning up to auctions – Real Estate agents will start recommending people drop their prices.

        No share dividends, no super, no air bnb pocket money, no job to pay the interest only mortgages – one month and you will be seeing price carnage.

        Go onto domain right now and put in “price reduced” – you will not see prices being reduced during a boom – no chance – and there are thousands and thousands of them in Melbourne, Sydney and of course regional towns, coastal – everywhere.

        There is no boom – there is no spoon.

    • I know a few people that are about to lose their job.

      The only thing that will stop large house price falls is near zero mortgage rates.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        removing the gig economy as an employer of last resort (allowing people to earn a marginal wage that covers the most pressing bills for a long period of time) is going to be important as well.

        • Reverse Transcriptase

          Well speaking for myself, I am a bit less inclined to have my meals delivered by a 33 year old chain smoking Indian male skilled visa (‘food delivery specialist’ sub class) holder than I was a month ago. But heck, I’m probably Robinson Crusoe on that one …

      • The only thing that wills top large house price falls is a total moratorium on mortgage repayments – and that will only come about with a moratorium on rent payment as well.

        30% of all real estate sales are forced sales for one reason or another (moving, death, disability, etc) do you think that no one buying a single house for the next three months wont affect prices ?

        Yes – yes it will.

    • give it few weeks as per Arrow2 comments below.. people only heard about Tom Hanks, Il Duce, fotty.. woolies are being properly emptied only from yesterday arvo.
      though.. last few days I noticed jumps as not as high so I think prices started to slide in many areas.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      “where the hell is cash coming from?”
      Well Kelly i think you answered your own question

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      Australian baseline numbers are still low. They are doubling every X days (and will almost certainly accelerate after Scotty left all sporting games on with crowds this week, plus all the F1 attendees are still in Melbourne mingling with all the italians)

      europe is making the list now because large countries outside of Italy (Spain, Germany, France) baseline numbers reached that critical mass point of around 2000 cases. So within the next two hops (~4 days x 2) for doubling, the numbers get very large

        • if we use 1.4 and assume 128 infections on the 12th then today we should have 250 and by Monday only 491. I can see why Scumo was not happy with this and fast-tracked things to make sure as many people get infected over the weekend as possible. He will even contribute personally by infecting as many at the footy as he can.. hence why does not want to be tested so he can claim he did not know.

    • noticed that early in the morning. also Aus numbers were not updated yesterday as they were same as the day before at 128. Nothing will surprise me.. probably our politicians think keeping us in the dark is better than keeping us informed. Back to earth is flat..

      last 2 days I’ve been hearing more and more ambulance sirens in my area.

      • Niko – have been noticing more frequent ambulance sirens here to (Ashgrove in Brisbane) ….

  32. happy valleyMEMBER

    Will we soon have a ScoVID test kit rort with an appropriate colour-coded spreadsheet?

    • In the Australian context, I have a suspicion that older individuals and couples living in their own home would have a good chance to self-isolate, but those living in aged care or sharing with younger relatives would find it harder to avoid exposure.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        self isolating in flammable dog boxes will also be much harder than if you’re in a free-standing home

        • throw in blackouts like the ones in Sydney late last year and in Feb, and you’ll have true apocalypse. Sydney is just a storm away from end of civilisation.

      • Niko I am self-isolating after testing. Contact with a bloke came back after a week in the UK. The numbers MUST be infinitely larger than is being reported. Whether the under-reporting is deliberate or just a lack of data I don’t know. I suspect this is just moving soooo much faster than those in charge realise.

        • hope you come out ok mate..
          I share same opinion and think situation is lot worse. Numbers reported could as per what you said. What worries me is that the Gov knows things will get lot worse but still refusing to order full shutdown. Just stopped watching Insiders and Chief Medical Office actually admitted things will get worse and advice will change. Why waiting for things to get worse first? Why can’t we be ahead of the curve?

          • Niko
            That’s all above my paygrade but…from my experience and talking to health people….The system is already bogged down with worryworts. I guess they have to be careful not to set the whole country off ringing and seeking medical advice over every small thing. So it’s been a balance thing right from the start. I prefer not to be too judgemental about people who have to ACTUALLY make tough decisions.
            The population has changed in regard to putting up with a bit of discomfort. We are all now waaaaayyyy too precious. I’m an old farmer/grazier some time ago. If you got live ones you’re gunna to have dead ones!

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            Why can’t we be ahead of the curve?

            Ahead of the curve ? Are you some kind of central-planning commie !?

            The main non-ideological reason we can’t be ahead of the curve is because being ahead of the curve is hard, it requires actively seeking and respecting opinions from smarter people, compromise, a willingness to take responsibility, and the humility to make mistakes, admit them, and try to fix them.

            None of these personality traits can be found in even trace amounts amongst the current Government.

    • Thanks for sharing. Those are some grim numbers over 50. Even 0.6% is pretty bad considering a bad flu is 0.1

    • Under 65’s is about ten times worse than standard influenza for people over 65..how is that ok ?

  33. darklydrawlMEMBER

    Supermarket shopping this morning was a surreal experience. Mid morning and many product lines were low or exhausted already. There was a palpable vibe of aniexty and just under the surface panic as folks moved around (trying to look relaxed and cool and making jokes) but grabbing what was left as quietly and quickly as possible. Massive queues at the checkout. 10 deep per checkout. Wow…

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      No one is listening to Scotty from Marketing’ assurances that the LNP government has our backs.

      • And I think that’s a big part of the issue- a lot of people don’t have any faith that any level of government can be organised enough, or even have the desire to keep people as safe as possible.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          They just want us to get out and spend spend spend. Never mind Grandma / Grandpa – think of the GDP!! They sure are getting their ‘spend’ wish – although all this money will vanish as the whole panic thing is pulling demand forward and then it will fall into a giant hole for several months as we gradually use up the bunker supplies and avoid the shops entirely.

          I was stunned that a world class boofhead like Boris Johnson was more dignified, honest and upfront about what the UK faces than Scomo could ever manage. Wow… Speak volumes at how crap our leaders are in a crisis.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Yep, Lovey’s Facebook is covered in panic buying pics. Now she thinks we need more. That’s how it spreads. Told her we got plenty and to leave it a few days. She’s unsure. Told her I’d scout around tomorrow just to keep her happy.

      Still say it was the F1 announcement that set it off.

      Oh, Lovey tells me she ran into a friend and Lovey mentioned how stupid the panic buying was. Friend said yeah, we’re right, we got 12 packs of toilet paper. Two adults, two kids. Twelve packs.

      Straya. Winning.

      • I went to do a bit ofpanic buying failed miserably, came away with a few cans of beans, some noodles, 2 fray bentos pies, some tuna & gluten free pasta as only stuff left.

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          It seemed likely this sort of outcome was coming, so we did the ‘prepper’ thing weeks ago and have been running regular top ups on our day to day stuff. Today was just our regular shop to get a few things for the week (thankfully) but even so – there was bugger all left of many staples. Most fresh meat options were low and down to the last few packets, no dry pasta at all, no rice, no frozen fruit, 8 boxes of weetbix left at 10 am, few packets of flour just to name a few. Lots of stock was low or exhausted. Was freaky.

          • Yes, I’m a failure!
            Forgot about the cereal, one of my young sons was was not happy I came home without his Fruity Bites!

    • And the problems have only just begun.Last couple of days have been an om my gosh moment.You know I say to people at the begining I could have got a 10 year old and said three things
      First the Chinese have an advanced scientific and medical community
      Second they just locked down 700 odd million people because of an infectious disease(and given a little explanation along the wayie what lockdown means)
      Third that a shit load of people travel around the world by plane
      He or she would then have said l think we have a problem.That it has taken this long for many people speaks volumes about normalcy bias

      • +1 – I stocked up 2month supplies 3 weeks ago. Now only buy few things and only online..

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Totally agree. Struggle to understand why some people are surprised by this or worse, have not idea what is going on.

        The Wuhan experience alone should have freaked everyone out. You don’t isolate an entire city over something trivial and easy to deal with. Even if you missed that, the news out of Italy is horrific.

        There seems to be many people that have only understood the risk this weekend. Seems the F1 being pulled and the AFL looking shaky has woken them up the crisis.

        • When Wuhan shut down at 800 cases and it ended up needing to build 2 hospitals and had a cfr of 3.6% followed by China creating the largest quarantine man has ever tried you knew this has catastrophic potential. So sad “the west” ignored all thsi and thought they’d be smart enough to know when to pull the switch.

          Currently looks like Spain, France and USA will all be worse than Wuhan. Maybe Germany to, Uk seems to be going all in with the pitch that they need 60% of people to catch it, please form an orderly queue.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      My wife describe her shopping experience today : “people are buying grocery like it’s free”. @[email protected]

      On a more serious notes, if you have elderly parents, now is the time to make plans for grocery delivery for the period when they need to quarantine themselves at home. Both the State and Federal government won’t be doing anything to look after them.

    • Mrs Nut and I have just got back from Coles Gungahlin (Canberra); fvcken bedlam up to 10 or more deep at every checkout. The checkout chick reckons it’s been like this since 7am.

      As described by others, panic buying has now stretched to meats, frozen veg and bread. Fresh fruit and veg, the stuff that’ll actually helps your immune system was in abundance. Stocked up on a few more tins of soup, packaged rice and stews. These have a long shelf life and are readily available. The panic buying is one thing but it’s the heard mentality to blindly stock up on 12 cans of tinned tomatoes. Hope you’ve got a fvck load of recipes for tinned tomatoes, pasta and rice or your family’s gonna fvcken hate you.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        Tinned tomatoes is the soup base for pretty much all red-sauce pasta/soup recipe published by Coles and Woolworths, as the vast amount of salt will cover up the foul tang of the lowest grade ingredient.

      • Woolies in syd east was a disaster yesterday. All food on all shelves gone. Even veges. only fruit left. Frozen fruit and veges gone as well. Went in this sunday morning at 7am to see how things might go down and it was packed. By 9.00am everything gone again. People were even taking handfuls of the point of sale chocolates near the checkout as they were waiting.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          I went to Aldi in Grovedale and Woolworths in Waurn Ponds (both Geelong) today. Same story both places.

          No cans of anything left at Aldi – maybe some pineapple pieces. Most cans of vegies etc gone from Woolworths too. Woolworths was out of most decongestant and cold/flu type things. Not a skerrick of bog roll in either shop. I got some decent orange juice there, and went to town on iced donuts, some of their apples. Aldi was out of all breads, most canned foods (except some of their crushed tomatoes – which i believe are done by African refugees in their bare feet in Italy), almost all meat, and a lot of their fresh vegetables. Woolies was doing better with the meat (but they are much more expensive) but they were obviously running things down. The Booze shop still had plenty of stock.

  34. “Poland will ban foreigners from entering the country from Sunday and impose a 14-day quarantine on its citizens returning home in a bid to curb the spread of coronavirus, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Friday.

    “The state will not abandon (its citizens). However, in the current situation, we cannot allow ourselves to keep borders open to foreigners,” Morawiecki told a news conference.

    Those with a residence permit in Poland will be also allowed to enter, he said. But no international inbound flights or trains would be allowed from 0000 CET on Sunday, except for some charter flights bringing Poles back from holidays.”

    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21031F

    Poland is a serious country.

    • Yes, we should be like Poland!
      Meanwhile our government experts satchel think they are ahead of the curve as cases double to 200 exactly as predicted (bit faster in fact)

      • Over the centuries, Poland has learnt to be on the defensive and not worried if they offend foreigners when it comes to protecting their people.

          • My sister in Sweden just told me her colleague recently returned from Thailand & her whole family now have coronavirus. When they come back they followed protocol, which was nothing, as Thailand not on list of high risk countries, they had no symptoms etc. now half the class in each of the kids classes are positive! So much for the experts!

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      Which we should have done weeks ago, but no…. Let’s get a recession AND a major health crisis at the same time.

  35. happy valleyMEMBER

    OMG – the Rupert screen must have been asleep overnight. Get a hold of Shari Markson’s article in the Daily Tele today – scathing of Straya’s preparedness to deal with the pandemic. Still, all will be fine in tomorrow’s Sun Tele as Peta Credlin and Piers Ackerman laud the efforts of the LNP.

    • Things are turning at News Corp. From the Oz today:

      “Health authorities, racing to control the coronavirus, face a life-or-death challenge: flatten the rate of infection or face a situation where hospital doctors will need to make agonising decisions about who to save and who to let go.

      COVID-19 infections are doubling every six days. With Australia’s tally jumping to 199 late on Friday, the number of cases will have passed 10,000 in less than six weeks unless the spread is slowed.

      NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant this week warned 1.5 million people in the state are ­likely to ­become infected, yet the nation has only 2000 intensive care beds.”

      https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/flatten-coronavirus-infection-curve-or-cases-will-swamp-hospital-icus/news-story/2d5090e139c0777903a24175fcf135c8

      All the columnists over at the Oz are now saying that yes, this is a big deal and that Australia is vulnerable. Except for Adam Creighton, who still seems to be downplaying it. And Chris Kenny is blaming Labor for leaving us in deficit. Apparently that explains ScoMo’s failure to take decisive action to shut the borders and enact social distancing. And apparently it’s Labor’s fault that the Coalition has run a Population Ponzi scheme that has overloaded our health system and left it ill-equipped to handle a pandemic.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Murdoch has probably tweaked he is in the highest risk cohort and decided those dumb fear mungering scientists DO know what they are talking about after all….

      • This is all a compromise. The country is now full of indulged people who think everything has got to be perfect. It’s been a compromise all along. At the moment the system is clogged with people who should NOT be ringing the health lines. People needing help cannot get through. Trying not to have that happen has to have been part of their strategy. Don’t want to fire off too early and not too late. Hold till you see the whites of their eyes!!! What is exactly the right moment? Who knows?

  36. Rorke's DriftMEMBER

    I had a work meeting yesterday to try to settle a commercial dispute. Me and an advisor met the CEO and director of a large firm. Serious mood, parties arrived at the appointed time and….was offered forearms to touch, near the elbow. What, we’re doing this thing now? No handshaking? Bugger me, that’s weird. A few laughs all round.

    Actually, I didn’t mind it and quite hope it catches on. I hate in the normal winter flu season being compelled by social convention to shake hands with all and sundry.

  37. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    12 and raining in Sydney today, the virus will be going exponential for sure

    • Think of all those people who got infected today while they did their panic shop at woolies.

      • AND that’s why I stocked up over 2 weeks ago. Did a top up shop last week and I was freaking out at the moderately patronised Coles (there were more people in than normal for a Friday morning).

  38. reusachtigeMEMBER

    In a Sydney brewery on the wrong side of town. I think this strange sh1thole poor industrial area is called Marrickville or something. Anyway, it’s packed with great looking 20 and 30 somethings. And I mean packed. 100 or more jammed in. Lots and lots of hugs, kisses, hand shakes, high fives. It’s all good and happy. Big NY pizzas being cooked with loads of peeps hanging over them choosing off a table. Good to see people not giving a sh1t about the media hype virus.

      • It’s a bit more or a buzz in Newtown. The planes fly even lower there. The smell of kerosene is quite nice. Stings the nostrils in a good way.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      “great looking 20 and 30 somethings”…. A generation raised with unbroken JIT supply chains spewing out endless variety and options.

      These folks have no idea what is coming. They think that a recession is when they have to forego the expresso martini because they missed happy hour and they’re on a budget (gotta save for the overseas skiing holiday after all).

      They remind me of the folks on the beach who run out to catch the fish when the water suddenly retreats and then whip out the smart phone to take a selfie at that great income surfable wave in the background – awesome! It is only too late do they realise that running like buggery to higher ground was a better option.

    • To be fair, I believe cleaners in Hazmat suits disinfect every room that Dutto visits. Nothing out of the ordinary here.

      • Yep standard procedure for years!

        I also reckon no need to test other cabinet members because they know they are not infected – none of them have touched him since he couldn’t count well enough to win the leadership, and for months now he’s had to sit in a hole under the cabinet table with a grate over it like in silence of the lambs…

  39. So is anyone going to talk about the US stock market?

    10% ramp at the close?

    What are we going to see next week

    Think I had my best day of investing ever yesterday got into NCM at $20.8, and bought some VGS
    Now I wish I’d bought more of course, but mustn’t forget that I am a fuking idiot and shouldn’t be trusted with money so maybe I’ll sell on Monday

    • Sad to say it but while the US stock market took off for Mars the gold miners got absolutely hosed, Newcrest down 14% on the US bourse, so could be another bloodbath on Monday for the local miners.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Don’t fret, that’s what the stock market did before the depression. Up & down & up, down.

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      Notwithstanding a pattern of Friday rises the last few weeks as shorts close out for weekend, and the forced short covering in the US that occurred, markets and lots of stocks hit a technical level yesterday that I think many were watching and waiting for. I had intended to buy CBA at $60 as I believed that would be hit and hold for next while. Caught up in work, brief lunch break, and couldnt get the trade on. Bugger, but reality is that fast moving markets are really too difficult to trade if working full time. I’ll let markets settle Monday after the big reversal up then look to trade a multiweek bounce from here which would be my expected reaction at this point. NCM I like and watching as gold underwrites this a bit more than financials. Need to see the play on Monday though.

      • News next week is going to be a disaster Rorke, infections are going exponential and the whole show is shutting down, no way this rally will last. I’m staying well away.

    • 3 Fridays in a row massive ramp up at close. For that reason I am not convinced it was the Trump speech. Similar things happened during GFC. IMO institutions ganging up to artificially inflate prices, and helped by short-sellers squeezed out of their position.

  40. Had a beer round at a mate’s place last night. He’s with Sydney Trains. Said they won’t do any testing on any drivers. Basically if one goes, they all go. It would get around the depot quick smart and the hysteria once people found out would shut down the system as they are all hands on deck the majority of the time anyway. Bus drivers even worse, given they are in the same area as passengers.

    • Only a matter of time – just think: no public transport. Life’s about to get ‘real’.

      • Taking your advice about withdrawing cash( didn’t start earlier as been unwell).
        By Saturday lunchtime 2 of the three atms at the local commonwealth branch had been cleaned out.
        Never seen it before, so a few people hoarding cash.

    • Was waiting fur the wife the other day watching all the taxi drivers doing the right thing & helping the old ladies load their groceries etc intol the cabs & thought now that is a great way too get more homes onto the market! 😜

  41. BoomToBustMEMBER

    Watching “The Big Short” – it’s like deja vu for current markets, except they didn’t have covid19

  42. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Politicians and sports stars are getting their test results on the same day.

    Plebs have wait up to 7 days.

    Everyone on the flight with Dutton have to be in quarantine, yet not Ministers who were in closer contact.

    • My daughters fella got tested Saturday arvo North of Brisvegas and got his results a couple of hours ago. Negative 🙂

  43. TailorTrashMEMBER

    2020 is the year of the rat …….should we now perhaps change it to the year of the bat …..

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      It’s probably more. They are not testing community transmission. You have to have had contact or near contact with a known case or travelled from Iran, China etc. They are running out of one of the test chemicals. Of course we don’t make it here, so the tests are getting rationed.

      I’m not quite at coming’s numbers, but I think we are well and truly exponential. I had it at 2000 by Sunday, but I think that was probably passed some time over the past week.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Australia is similar to USA right now : no broad testing of community infection. This is due to the lack of testing kits.

      We need to either import or manufacture about 100K of the following testing kit.

      https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/13/national/kurabo-coronavirus-test-kits/#.XmxdRagzaMo

      This weekend in Sydney is cold, miserable and wet. This will be the ‘super spreading’ weekend. By next week school will be closed, every non-essential business will be closed, public transport will be closed, and it’ll remain that way for 2 months.

      • That test kit is interesting. $37 each. If it could be produced in the many millions we could shut this done with a one-off test for everyone, followed say by once a month until vaccine produced, and test everyone entering the country.

      • PS. l’m sure I don’t have to tell you (but before I get flamed, I will) there are a heap of assumptions in there, so accuracy may vary. 😜

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      What the hell are on-site nurses going go do? Catch germs with a giant butterfly net?

      Jesus, this country…

    • I really hope we don’t get a bad dose of Cov19 in Australia. Looking back at this period and all this horse trading with people’s lives, I DO hope people realise the disease we have had at least since the 1990s – where we try and put $ on everything.

      I’m paid to do this for a living and let me tell you it is a flawed science. Even worse, it never tells the true story or gives you the true ‘value’ as a human being and a society of human beings. Just like GDP!

      However, those ‘bringing the numbers’ wield huge power and allow decision-makers to stop thinking and put their brians in neutral now that the answer ‘is ‘in. It is always the final answer we look to for all our questions these days. It is a sickness. All heads snap back when the finance section of the news comes on each night to tell us if we are ‘all good’ or else ‘down’ today.

      We have really lost our way. I hope this situation can be a watershed for our society and younger generations can step up and point out this sickness and that it has to stop or at least be balanced out from the current extremes.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Sadly it won’t …..the only thing that will make strayans sit up and notice anything will be the backside falling out of their beloved housing market .
        When they wake up one fine morning and their house is no longer making them a ( foolish) millionaire then they might begin to think deeper.

  44. You’ve just been volunteered to a ‘new’ makeshift CV ward, no neg pressure isolation all in open a/c ie staff meal areas, varying issues ie no lids on toilets etc. What’s the CV sick leave and ‘safety package’ going to be, any compensation? Prepare to cancel surgeries to supply staff.

    Govt better get ‘working conditions’ and security in order post haste. Not everyone has to go to work ‘to live’. I’d imagine a lot of med staff people going to retire now, as in coming week.

    Here comes the multiculturalism litmus test – hardship. Doctors will be making hard choices. Add recession. Racism is gunna get real. Not the Q&A lefty happy crappies variety – Reverse racism left idealogy crapping over the majority for psychological herd compliance.

    Greatest generation then vs greatest segregations now.

    In the age of no respect buy my respect (and your guilt).

    • That racism aspect could be interesting. Lot of legezen medical providers and a lot of new arrivals, it could go both ways. Would it be more of the legezen medicos retiring (and in this age of every dog for themselves I don’t blame them)? My guess would be they are less likely to be hocked to their eyeballs in debt and could afford it.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Hey, what day did the Hungarian have his meeting with the bank chiefs? After cabinet meetings with the Queensland spud?

      Bank chiefs gone too then. Awesome.

    • If #scottyfrommarketing went into isolation it would be a good opportunity for the adults to take charge instead of the work experience guy

  45. blindjusticeMEMBER

    “your grandparents were called to war. you are being called to sit on the couch….do it!”

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      So who’s the third world society? China, South Korea and Japan – all who have as much of what they need medically like test kits, masks, meds, hospitals etc because they all make them or the West like America, Italy and Australia who have lots of trinkets but can’t get their basic sh1t together in this pandemic because they have outsourced their prosperity!?

    • It was clear that Australia would need a lot more masks, testing kits, medical equipment etc. back in January. Yet moron Murphy downplayed the coronavirus threat. The guy needs to go.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Yep – his public performance at least has been disgraceful. All “nothing to see here – go out and shop!”

      • Murphy was deemed the fall guy from start.. this leaking is to that effect to make Scomo looks competent

  46. COVID-19 is a Virus.

    V I R U S

    Just a head’s-up for all those hoping that ‘financial tools’ will save us.

  47. Bruce and Dave and Danny saw the sick parade at the clinic,
    It was a long wait for the test.
    Next in line, it was then my turn and it was me who drew the card,
    I got the test kit and the look before I left.

    And me mates lined the footpath as I walked past mask attached,
    There’s ScoMo on the tv saying that it’s all just a dream,
    And there’s me in me bedroom, with me Xbox and Beam,
    Ah fvck me,
    I’ve got CoVid-19.

    From fevers riding panadol to the coughs late at night night,
    I’ve had the shakes now for days,
    And I made my room a home, VB and QV by tub,
    And a half a$$ed sunset through the shrubs.

    And can you tell me Doctor why I still can’t get to sleep?
    And night time’s just a sweat fest and ScoMo haunting me in my sleep,
    What’s this cough that comes and it’s not a fvcken dream,
    God help me,
    I’ve got CoVid-19.

  48. Geez… talking about panik-dynamik….
    Anyone care to discuss if gold is money, should non-bank sector create money or is UBI good (for everyone)…
    Anyone?

    • All I can say is I have decided to punt another 5K to Perth Mint this week and I’m buying 1 ounce of gold and the rest will be silver. I’m not happy having so much cash in the bank (it was for a house deposit I won’t be buying any time soon), but I don’t really want to go to an atm and start withdrawing it. So I’m viewing my Perth Mint account as a way to get some money out of the normal banking system and into some hard money.

      The printers are being turned on and cranked up. I think we’ll have some deflation courtesy of the oil price shock, and then I think inflation (and gulp hyper inflation) are just around the corner. I think the global financial system will fail and it will happen so much faster than most people expect. We really are fcked. Interesting times. Personal goal is now to live long enough to die from schadenfreudgasms.

      • I am thinking same but at this stage still think mid size Oz miners are better option. Especially those with very low cost production, all operations in safe jurisdictions and no or very low debt. My picks are RRL and SAR.
        If I am right and we will see global shut down commodities will fall except for food (beef, pork, wheat..). I think buying small and keep building into some of those companies will be smart if one has 24 months timeline. For that I see Cu and Ni as main metals to rally most once recovery starts. And for that I target WSA and NCM ( Au/Cu).
        If RRL falls below $2.70 and on Monday they probably will I will buy few more. Same for SAR if the go below $2.70 and WSA below $1.80.
        On Friday both RRL and SAR traded around those levels and last time they did was when gold was ~ $1050 and aud ~ 82c. Can they fall more, yes, will they be trading much higher 24 months from here yes too.

  49. Well full chaos at my woollies. Shelves fully cleared out. Not a single vege left. Even the overpriced organics were sold out. No rice, pasta, flour, tin goods, milk. No frozen veges…. all cleared. No toilet paper of course.

    • AAC shares will jump 2000% now. And not because of beef prices.

      interesting article btw. I think oil will pick in 3 years max and this is why Russia is not interested to cut production down – they see writing’s on the wall.

      • i doubt it will be dramatic, too much vested interest in lithium cartel will mute this.
        going long, i think this route is inevitable and being at the forefront can be beneficial. Main benefit over battery powered EV is that it takes nanoseconds to refuel (in comparison) and it can power light truck and common tradie utes without effective range cost.
        will be looking closely to buy shares…

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          Contemporary batteries (several hundred km range per day) wouldn’t be a limitation for common tradie utes.

          Probably not even for light trucks.

          • yep, they can power bogan utes going to work empty but when you start peddling mass it becomes weight which needs kW to oppose momentum… so your 500km ute becomes 100km ute (load dependant). Load a Tesla with 10 more passengers and you think the range will be the same? and theres that little thing called aerodynamics
            hydrogen fuel vehicles do not suffer from range anxiety and can power a fully laden double d truck in similar travel times as current trucks (and “fuel tank” weight will not be greater than the payload)
            commuters will still benefit from simpler battEV like Leaf and virtue signallers can scoot around town in EV Porsches and Mercs by charging them solar…

            hydrogen allows uninterrupted green sustainable cycle model, something battery powered vehicles will never be able due to their energy storage concept.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            yep, they can power bogan utes going to work empty but when you start peddling mass it becomes weight which needs kW to oppose momentum… so your 500km ute becomes 100km ute (load dependant).

            Yeah… Nah.

            Betcha it doesn’t with any reasonable load example.

          • Djenka