This much. Via Deutsche:
A week ago, in the wake of news that China had reported a much greater drop in domestic spending in January-February than had been expected, we wrote that the global economy was moving into a severe recession and that Europe and the US would record the largest quarterly declines in GDP since WWII1.
We also wrote that such projections are a rapidly moving target and the range of uncertainty surrounding them is tremendous. With another week of developments on the Covid-19 “war front” now behind us, we have sharpened our pencils and tried to get a better basis for understanding just how large the plunge in activity could be in the near term. News that entire countries and major US states are going into lockdown or something close to it has changed the picture significantly. These developments and our calculations of their effects now take us far outside of the box of historical experience.
