Links 6 March 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)


  1. School’s out! Doubt it will be for just one day.

    The one-day closure will allow the school and health authorities to identify and contact anyone the boy has been in contact with while potentially infectious, and contain any spread. He is the first child in NSW to be diagnosed with COVID-19.

    “Students at the school are advised to stay at home and self-isolate over the weekend,” the statement read. “Staff are also asked to stay at home and self-isolate. The school will provide a further update over the weekend about next steps.”

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      If it were me when I was at school I wouldn’t be able to remember all the birds I had pashed since probably getting infected. I was always with the hot birds and they were always a bit sneaky and naughty so they would have been out spreading it themselves a lot too. I know this is a boys school but same applies because boys schools breed homosexuality relations.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The boy didn’t travel to China. His parent caught the coronavirus working as a health worker, so he is tested and found to have it.

      What is unbelievable is that he also has a sister, but her school was not shutdown. WTF?? (It is Cheltenham girls high.)

      • Glad to hear it (sort of).
        Half-expected it to be one of Minister Tehan’s imports.
        In which case rage at the clown shoes government, not the import.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Mate if a bunch of those pink elephants get it all the boys in the district ate gunna get infected!
        I have fond memories of Cheltenham girls and their pink uniforms from my high school years.

    • As usual I lost the bet.
      My money was on one of the top Selective high schools (or Asian ghettos schools as they’re locally known) being the first to close because of the virus.
      I guess Epping is not Selective but it’s definitely in the right neighbourhood.
      As a non Sydneysider, I say it’s time to bring in the troops and ring fence Sydney. Let this virus take hold and infect those with immune systems already weakened by the RealEstate virus that came before it.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Chinese students are the dominant demographic at Epping boys and the school is considered one of the better non selective Public high schools in the district same for Cheltenham girls.

    • Opinion … Coronavirus: Revenge of the Pangolins … Wufei Yu … New York Times

      “We can’t be indifferent anymore!” President Xi Jinping of China fumed at top officials early last month, referring to the public health risks of eating wildlife. On Feb. 24, the 13th National People’s Congress issued a decision “Comprehensively Prohibiting the Illegal Trade of Wild Animals, Eliminating the Bad Habits of Wild Animal Consumption and Protecting the Health and Safety of the People.” This and an earlier ban on wildlife markets were direct responses to concerns that the new coronavirus, which is thought to have originated in bats, may have been transmitted to humans via a wild animal for sale at a wet market in Wuhan, a city in central China. … read more via hyperlink above …

      • You mean eating all sorts of random sht may not be good for you? Huh, who’d a thunk it.

    • The part I like the best is second owners can experience a software down grade from the original buyers, once sold on Telsa deems the contract null and void.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    Bernie Sanders has zero chance of winning the nomination.
    I will make a bucket load of money being long the S&P500 from now until at least half-way through Trump’s next term.
    Buy now?

    • so that means Biden wins if market crashes before elections
      I wonder if there is interest on wall street to help Biden to get 4 more years of finance friendly democrats

    • That is partly why the US stock market rose so sharply after Super Tuesday. Already priced in IMO.

    • Two man race and the Corporate Dems have circled their wagons, bloomie might even get a VP nom after all the change he spent. It also seems there was a lot of irregularities in the SC vote which don’t add up.

      On top of all this Trump will have a field day with Biden, Carlson is already on it …

      PS remind me how the market miss priced the GFC or a virus … chortle …

      Tucker Carlson last night:

      “As a smart friend said last night, ‘joe biden has spent his entire life trying to succeed in presidential politics. Now he has. Too bad he’s not there to enjoy it.’

      The Corporate dems would rather lose to Trump than allow Sanders or any other progressive to gain power in the DNC after they were all purged in Bill Clintons putz. Both the DNC and GOP feed at the same trough and screwing with that set up is not allowed.

    • I’m tipping Biden won’t be the candidate. He’ll win the delegates count but will be de-delegated either voluntarily or forcefully on the basis of not being able to remember what day it is. deep State Denmocrat will then move in their real candidate.
      – Just thinkin out loud!

      • The Traveling Wilbur


        Giggles actually. Too true dat. I wish… but no, he will be the man that didn’t win the Presidency.

        On the bright side, at least he won’t remember much about his loss.

  3. When this virus sinks its fangs into Europe and America over the next couple weeks, I think we’ll start seeing total mass hysteria.

    Especially as these reports that this destroys the central nervous system and is like an airborne AIDS gains more traction.

    Supermarkets will be stripped bare. It will become every man for himself.

    Small businesses soon going bankrupt, hundreds of thousands of casual staff with no work. Even if it doesn’t take hold in Australia, only the most desperate for money will be leaving their homes.

    The MAFS demographic, the Q+A demographic will not be psychologically equipped to deal with this.

    Total bedlam coming in two weeks time if this keeps ramping up in Europe and America.

    And that’ll be nothing. One month after the initial mass hysteria, hospitals will be completely overwhelmed, the public won’t even be allowed within 200 metres of a hospital entrance, thousands of people dying at home choking on lung fluid.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I’ve noticed a change of attitude from the great unwashed in just the last week, and these clowns love MAFS. Preppers are no longer victims of ridicule. People are boycotting the F1. Big numbers being discussed. The seeds of the panic are there.

      The best bit is I keep hearing repeated stories about Scummo keeping the borders as wide open as possible and the appalling behaviour of the universities all because profits. The anger hopefully will go in the right direction.

      • Some people speculate this might be gone by May, Boris Johnson said Britons might have to put their lives on hold for 3 months, other people are saying life will be interrupted for 6 months (ie. work their white collar job from home, order Uber Eats, watch Netflix).

        All those suggestions could be wildly optimistic.

        China locked down Wuhan and it’s still spreading. When they lift the restrictions, it will just begin multiplying again I imagine.

        What if this time next year the virus is still infecting and re-infecting people? It’s the end of life as we know it.

        It’s all fun and games watching financial markets take a long deserved beating, but this is getting real. It’s more than buying a big bag of rice, toilet paper and binge watching everything on Netflix for the next few months.

        This might be a living hell. If it goes through until next year and beyond (and why wouldn’t it given it’s on its way to infecting every corner of the globe), it won’t be a 40% drop of the stock market or housing market followed by a V shaped recovery but total financial ruin.

        Mass joblessness, homelessness, marauding hungry gangs. Probably get hyperinflation eventually as governments pump money into non-functioning economies.

        Sure, they can lift restrictions and tell everyone to just go back to work, but this kills at 36x the rate of the flu. Every flu season will resemble what we saw in Wuhan hospitals.

        • billygoatMEMBER

          @ Bateater incredible how they can pin point the exact numbers 36 x For sure it’s the number of the beast 666. So scary.
          This thing reminds me of the evil plot to destroy mankind in Residemt Evil ….dah dah THE T VIRUS
          It’s like watching the plot of a movie play out before your very eyes on TV ..oh and in the supermarkets…on the streets & cafes over latte seated unlike the Italians within 60cm of the next person it’s business as usual.

        • desmodromicMEMBER

          As the community gains ‘herd immunity’ due to exposure, the infection and death rates will go down. The challenge is to get through the first wave of infection.

    • this is the key sentence It will become every man for himself.
      during Spanish flu people were united into brotherhood following WWI, now it’s going to be like a civil war

      • The quick breakdown of civil order at the time of the New Orleans flood is the model. Western Society and civilisation is now gone.

  4. – Russia & China a danger for Canada & the US ? Yea, sure. And I was bron yesterday, right ?

  5. there are speculations about how many will get infected and what is mortality rates so here are few stats

    – around 170k people die every year in Australia around 0.7%
    among them around 80% are elderly people over 65
    – there are around 4 million people over 65 in this country
    – corona has mortality of somewhere between 1 and 4% based on general population but since mortality rate is not same across various ages it cannot be simply compared between Japan with old population and Iran with younger population.
    – so far mortality for those over 65 is somewhere between 6 and 10%
    – if 60% of Australian population evenly gets infected by corona (as many are predicting) that would include 2.2 million of those over 65 of which around 200k will die
    – Around half of Australians have at least one chronic disease and one in 9 Australians have two or more chronic diseases
    – 2.7m have asthma, 600k have COPD, 1.2m diabetes, 1.2m hearth disease, 0.5m cancer and 2.5m hypertension (of these 3.6 million are over 65)
    – that’s 5 million under age of 65 with chronic hearth, lung or endocrine disease
    – death rate for those with these diseases is between 8 and 12% but among younger (under 65) people probably somewhere around 4-8% – if 60% gets infected it will cause around 300k extra deaths

    – Assuming 60% infection rate equally spread among all ages that’s 500k deaths, some will overlap with 170k deaths normally in a year so let’s say 400k extra deaths – that’s more than doubling of death rate

    – if 20 % gets infected equally spread among all ages that would be 130k extra deaths
    … and so on and so on …

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Thanks goes to ”the good doctor”.
      Although that made me feel guilty for not riding this morn due to wariness of wet windscreens.
      btw those overlap death rates will be attributed to corona as even though they were going to die anyway corona tipped them over the edge and will be counted as such and the normal death rate will be disregarded adding to the fear.

    • Run this through Google Translate and realise our clinical apparatus is in no way ready for such a struggle…..these are the official treatment protocols of the Chinese Dept of Health

      We are in for the fight of our lives and need to go on a wartime footing……the biggest casualty will be Australian’s quaint faith in their government which has morphed into a parasitic monster over the last twenty years. On a personal note I am very interested in the 2/3 hydrogen 1/3 oxygen nebuliser made by the Shanghai company mentioned for family reasons.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        “On a personal note I am very interested in the 2/3 hydrogen 1/3 oxygen nebuliser”

        I predict explosive sales of this product.

        • Booming sales for nebulizers, and personalised nebulizer accessories, for those who want to stand out from the crowd and impress their family and friends.

          • Been quietly stocking up on Ventolin – 6M supply assuming 10x normal use
            plus stuff for airways

            another trip to CW today for cough lollies, friars balsam, senega ammonia more ventolin, eucalytus oil

            also ammo today, just in case
            plus fuel cans/fuel

          • @Swampy…….if you have an ensuite get yourself a spare exhaust fan….coronavirus patient should be in a negative pressure room with the windows open……be ready to give up the main bedroom if so……most people’s exhaust fan are not industrial grade and won’t survive running full time for a month.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      All the government has to do is to close the border, close all the schools, stop all public transport, close all the roads to private use, and it will be over in two weeks.

      We won’t do that though.

        • Ronin8317MEMBER

          If they do it NOW, it’ll be over in two weeks.

          By the time they actually do it, it’ll be too late.

          Just read that two GP doctors who got infected went to a medical conference. The hospital may be the last place you want to be right now.

      • Viruses don’t recognize boarders or human laws …

        Not that one could imagine a Dr Strangelove scenario where a big chicken pox party is advanced for nefarious reasons.

  6. Just walked past some folk on their way out of Woolies buying TP in bulk. Woolies obviously not enforcing their limits….

    • My local IGA had mountains of toilet paper in multiple aisles. They are making a statement to the Tulip buyers.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Woolies at Ermo is still out of TP.
        Went to Coles West Ryde yesterday no TP.
        Then walked over to Woolies West Ryde and before walking in bumped into my mate Jerry.
        Had a good yarn about my tooth removal while watching heaps of customers walking out off Woolies with TP.
        Cool I said to my mate they look like they’ve got heaps of TP.
        Went in to find the people in the store with TP in their trollies had gotten the last of it.
        Around a dozen people were milling around the TP section with one talking to a store employee who was saying that as soon as the truck turns up its all gone within an hour or 2.

        Fken Jerry!

  7. Ventolin costs $10 per inhaler.

    It saved my son from pneumonia. 3 puffs every 2 hours (wake up to administer).

    Ventolin will keep your family safe way longer than toilet paper

    • I paid $5 the other day, or mayb 7. There;s a generic alt which I think is around $4.

      Ventolin + a spacer = smart investment
      Of course asthmatics etc should be on preventers and have stock on hand if so diagnosed by GPs

      • Yeah the spacer ensures maximum ventolin dose from each atomiser puff.

        Ventolin helps stop Coronavirus patients going all the way to the last gasp oxygen ventilation stage.

        Bloody vital when ICU is as popular as toilet paper

  8. Talking Heads … so how did we get here?

    Mainstream economists often hold the view that criticisms of econometrics are the conclusions of sadly misinformed and misguided people who dislike and do not understand much of it. This is really a gross misapprehension. To be careful and cautious is not the same as to dislike. keuzenkampAnd as any perusal of the mathematical-statistical and philosophical works of people like for example Nancy Cartwright, Chris Chatfield, Hugo Keuzenkamp, John Maynard Keynes, Tony Lawson, Asad Zaman, Aris Spanos, Duo Qin, and David Freedman, would show, the critique is put forward by respected authorities. I would argue, against “common knowledge”, that they do not misunderstand the crucial issues at stake in the development of econometrics. Quite the contrary. They — just as yours truly — know them all too well, and are not satisfied with the validity and philosophical underpinning of the assumptions made for applying its methods.

    Let me try to do justice to the critical arguments on the logic of probabilistic induction and shortly elaborate — mostly from a philosophy of science vantage point — on some insights critical realism gives us on econometrics and its methodological foundations.

    • Yeah I’ve decided having a stash of cash in aud outside the bank is not a bad idea, even if in these virus laden days cash becomes non grata. It’s because I’m turning my first home savers account intro my emergency fund as I’ve stopped working due to the virus. I want that money accessible before i make decisions about my 2 term deposits

  9. most of cases in smaller European countries have been recorded after testing people who returned from Italy and have no symptoms. Almost everyone coming from Italy has been tested positive – that can only mean everyone in Italy is positive

  10. Various kinds of hysteria in the pink paper today. Two articles on shaky monster corporate debt including one by Mohamed El-Erian. Difficulty rolling over debt, fallen angels, huge B-minus borderline debt.

  11. Strade Bianche cancelled.

    Tirreno Adriatico too.

    Milan San Remo I would be shocked if held.

    Giro will be at risk even in May

    If you’ve got plans to head to ze Shpring Clashicks for fricking Belgian beers and frites, I’d be pulling stumps maybe

    Wonder if ASO will be getting nervous about the TDF

    Fk what a shame, it’s truly the best time of year March April May for cycling watching eh boom.