Global Macro / Markets / Investing:
- Man loses $60M in Bitcoin when landlord cleaned the house and sent everything to the dump unwittingly – Mazech Media
- Should CEOs run two companies at once? A Silicon Valley practice comes under scrutiny – CNN
- Each time the US10YR Yield has reached such a low a recession has occurred 6-12 months after – Trading View
- Fed’s $100 Billion Repo Intervention Falls Short Of Bank Demand – WSJ
- How Uber Flawlessly Manipulates with Numbers in Its Earning Report – Medium
- Strategist ‘at a loss’ over emergency Fed cut, says lack of rationale fed market panic – Yahoo
Americas:
- What if the economy needs more than the Fed can give it? – MarketPlace
- Dollar declines after Fed rate cut – Yuv News
- After slashing rates, U.S. Fed has more weapons to fight coronavirus effect – Yahoo
- Yale professor says US is way behind on testing, expects explosion of cases of coronavirus – Yahoo
- Russia greatest short-term threat to North America: Norad deputy commander – CTV
- Exposure to ‘fake news’ during the 2016 US election has been overstated: says study – Phys.org
Europe:
- Tesla’s Success in Europe Catches Industry Off Guard – NY Times
- Germany recognizes Bitcoin as a legal financial instrument – Decrypt
- Private payrolls up 183,000 as hiring shows no signs of coronavirus scare – CNBC
- Switzerland’s economic growth slows slightly at the end of 2019 – Economo
- EU interior ministers to pledge ‘all necessary measures’ to stop illegal crossings – ekathimerini.com
- Italy closes all schools and universities across the country – TG24
- Slovakia elects anti-corruption party after outrage over murdered journalist – CNN
Asia:
- China turns Roche arthritis drug Actemra against COVID-19 in new treatment guidelines – Fierce Pharma
- Malaysia’s AirAsia X defers A330neo deliveries as virus pressures frail finances – Reuters
- South Korea Sect Leader Tests Negative for Coronavirus as 600 New Cases Reported – Reuters
- Uighurs in “Forced Labour for Western Brands” – BBC
- China scoffed at early coronavirus travel restrictions—now it has its own – Fortune
- Lights Are On but No One’s Working: How Local Governments Are Faking Coronavirus Recovery – Caixin Global
Trans-Tasman:
- Government under investigation after redirecting all toilet paper to marginal seats – Chaser
- Sick or disabled people on Newstart face ‘unrealistic’ obligations to find work – The Guardian
- We can stamp out wage theft: workers present solutions to the Senate today – United Workers
- Coronavirus emergency funds blocked by Federal Government red tape, says NSW Health Minister – ABC
- Households and businesses are woefully unready to keep Australia’s economy afloat – The Guardian
- Sydney Uni to temporarily evict students to make space for quarantine post coronavirus travel ban – ABC
- Bushfire crisis conditions eight times more likely under 2C warming, analysis shows – The Guardian
- Coronavirus COVID-19 mask shortages mean GPs are shopping at hardware stores for supplies – ABC
- How COVID-19 leads to 2008-style bank crisis – Interest.co.nz
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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UST10Y 0.96
Nice.
So long and thanks for all the dot plots…
School’s out! Doubt it will be for just one day.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-closes-epping-boys-high-school-20200305-p547dn.html
The one-day closure will allow the school and health authorities to identify and contact anyone the boy has been in contact with while potentially infectious, and contain any spread. He is the first child in NSW to be diagnosed with COVID-19.
“Students at the school are advised to stay at home and self-isolate over the weekend,” the statement read. “Staff are also asked to stay at home and self-isolate. The school will provide a further update over the weekend about next steps.”
Epping. Hard to believe.
Woocodanode?
Wait wait wait! Hard to believe? Is that double haroldus or have I been away too long
I can vouch for him, same harold since the beginning.
ill tell ya whats Hard,
to believe.
that all Sydney schools wont be closed in a few weeks
I hear that self isolation is good for the virus.
No, you misheard. It was self immolation.
‘I burn for you,…’
If it were me when I was at school I wouldn’t be able to remember all the birds I had pashed since probably getting infected. I was always with the hot birds and they were always a bit sneaky and naughty so they would have been out spreading it themselves a lot too. I know this is a boys school but same applies because boys schools breed homosexuality relations.
Well Your such an endearing and potent chap its hard for any of us not to think of you in that way Reusa.
Even those with a strong preference for the chicks would find you almost impossible to resist.
😘
Yes. Understandable.
So your doctor’s certificates used to say
“away sick due to bird flu”
What do you do when a bird sh!ts on your window?
MB is a zone of respect and tolerance, Harold.
I know right!
I’m not angry, I’m just disappointed.
sounds difficult to do. don’t you have a glass coffee table?
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/11991292
Wonder if it relates to the above link?
Remember on Feb 22 how the government was going to admit several hundred Chinese senior students to Australia. All on a case by case basis of course.
The boy didn’t travel to China. His parent caught the coronavirus working as a health worker, so he is tested and found to have it.
What is unbelievable is that he also has a sister, but her school was not shutdown. WTF?? (It is Cheltenham girls high.)
Glad to hear it (sort of).
Half-expected it to be one of Minister Tehan’s imports.
In which case rage at the clown shoes government, not the import.
Mate if a bunch of those pink elephants get it all the boys in the district ate gunna get infected!
I have fond memories of Cheltenham girls and their pink uniforms from my high school years.
Any pictures
Ermo or the chicks?
CP adds himself to the AFP watchlist.
Harry why limit oneself to 50% of the population which also includes plumbers i suspect
As usual I lost the bet.
My money was on one of the top Selective high schools (or Asian ghettos schools as they’re locally known) being the first to close because of the virus.
I guess Epping is not Selective but it’s definitely in the right neighbourhood.
As a non Sydneysider, I say it’s time to bring in the troops and ring fence Sydney. Let this virus take hold and infect those with immune systems already weakened by the RealEstate virus that came before it.
Chinese students are the dominant demographic at Epping boys and the school is considered one of the better non selective Public high schools in the district same for Cheltenham girls.
‘This is a crisis.’ Airlines face $113 billion hit from the coronavirus … Charles Riley … CNN Business
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/business/airlines-coronavirus-iata-travel/index.html
Iran sets up checkpoints between cities; closes schools and universities … LIVE UPDATES … CNBC
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-south-korea-cases.html
Opinion … Coronavirus: Revenge of the Pangolins … Wufei Yu … New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/opinion/coronavirus-china-pangolins.html
“We can’t be indifferent anymore!” President Xi Jinping of China fumed at top officials early last month, referring to the public health risks of eating wildlife. On Feb. 24, the 13th National People’s Congress issued a decision “Comprehensively Prohibiting the Illegal Trade of Wild Animals, Eliminating the Bad Habits of Wild Animal Consumption and Protecting the Health and Safety of the People.” This and an earlier ban on wildlife markets were direct responses to concerns that the new coronavirus, which is thought to have originated in bats, may have been transmitted to humans via a wild animal for sale at a wet market in Wuhan, a city in central China. … read more via hyperlink above …
.
.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin
You mean eating all sorts of random sht may not be good for you? Huh, who’d a thunk it.
TSY10Y .945
Gilts at 0.333 lol
Usually have mine around 0300.
A couple of whiskeys usually sets that right.
Guilts @0300 man. Guilts!
sheesh…
This is quite stunning drone footage flying through one of the hangers in US air force museum.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=m4wLr8_Kaw4
Thanks for sharing tim
I’m thinking that’s in dayton ohio
It’s located there as the wright brothers had their bike shop there
https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Directions/
Fantastic! Thanks for the link.
A couple of my old steeds there.
Ooh! Do share?
lol
Messiah
The part I like the best is second owners can experience a software down grade from the original buyers, once sold on Telsa deems the contract null and void.
Bernie Sanders has zero chance of winning the nomination.
I will make a bucket load of money being long the S&P500 from now until at least half-way through Trump’s next term.
Buy now?
so that means Biden wins if market crashes before elections
I wonder if there is interest on wall street to help Biden to get 4 more years of finance friendly democrats
Can you afford NOT to be bullish with how amazing things are right now?
That is partly why the US stock market rose so sharply after Super Tuesday. Already priced in IMO.
Two man race and the Corporate Dems have circled their wagons, bloomie might even get a VP nom after all the change he spent. It also seems there was a lot of irregularities in the SC vote which don’t add up.
On top of all this Trump will have a field day with Biden, Carlson is already on it …
PS remind me how the market miss priced the GFC or a virus … chortle …
Tucker Carlson last night:
“As a smart friend said last night, ‘joe biden has spent his entire life trying to succeed in presidential politics. Now he has. Too bad he’s not there to enjoy it.’
The Corporate dems would rather lose to Trump than allow Sanders or any other progressive to gain power in the DNC after they were all purged in Bill Clintons putz. Both the DNC and GOP feed at the same trough and screwing with that set up is not allowed.
I love it when you speak plainly.
100%, Johnny Utah
I’m tipping Biden won’t be the candidate. He’ll win the delegates count but will be de-delegated either voluntarily or forcefully on the basis of not being able to remember what day it is. deep State Denmocrat will then move in their real candidate.
– Just thinkin out loud!
LOLd.
Giggles actually. Too true dat. I wish… but no, he will be the man that didn’t win the Presidency.
On the bright side, at least he won’t remember much about his loss.
Our selfish, shameless universities: bugger public health, we’ve got cash cows to milk – https://www.spectator.com.au/2020/03/our-selfish-shameless-universities-bugger-public-health-weve-got-cash-cows-to-milk/
We have HUGE VC rewards to pay
When this virus sinks its fangs into Europe and America over the next couple weeks, I think we’ll start seeing total mass hysteria.
Especially as these reports that this destroys the central nervous system and is like an airborne AIDS gains more traction.
Supermarkets will be stripped bare. It will become every man for himself.
Small businesses soon going bankrupt, hundreds of thousands of casual staff with no work. Even if it doesn’t take hold in Australia, only the most desperate for money will be leaving their homes.
The MAFS demographic, the Q+A demographic will not be psychologically equipped to deal with this.
Total bedlam coming in two weeks time if this keeps ramping up in Europe and America.
And that’ll be nothing. One month after the initial mass hysteria, hospitals will be completely overwhelmed, the public won’t even be allowed within 200 metres of a hospital entrance, thousands of people dying at home choking on lung fluid.
I’ve noticed a change of attitude from the great unwashed in just the last week, and these clowns love MAFS. Preppers are no longer victims of ridicule. People are boycotting the F1. Big numbers being discussed. The seeds of the panic are there.
The best bit is I keep hearing repeated stories about Scummo keeping the borders as wide open as possible and the appalling behaviour of the universities all because profits. The anger hopefully will go in the right direction.
Some people speculate this might be gone by May, Boris Johnson said Britons might have to put their lives on hold for 3 months, other people are saying life will be interrupted for 6 months (ie. work their white collar job from home, order Uber Eats, watch Netflix).
All those suggestions could be wildly optimistic.
China locked down Wuhan and it’s still spreading. When they lift the restrictions, it will just begin multiplying again I imagine.
What if this time next year the virus is still infecting and re-infecting people? It’s the end of life as we know it.
It’s all fun and games watching financial markets take a long deserved beating, but this is getting real. It’s more than buying a big bag of rice, toilet paper and binge watching everything on Netflix for the next few months.
This might be a living hell. If it goes through until next year and beyond (and why wouldn’t it given it’s on its way to infecting every corner of the globe), it won’t be a 40% drop of the stock market or housing market followed by a V shaped recovery but total financial ruin.
Mass joblessness, homelessness, marauding hungry gangs. Probably get hyperinflation eventually as governments pump money into non-functioning economies.
Sure, they can lift restrictions and tell everyone to just go back to work, but this kills at 36x the rate of the flu. Every flu season will resemble what we saw in Wuhan hospitals.
How was dinner last night
@ Bateater incredible how they can pin point the exact numbers 36 x For sure it’s the number of the beast 666. So scary.
This thing reminds me of the evil plot to destroy mankind in Residemt Evil ….dah dah THE T VIRUS
It’s like watching the plot of a movie play out before your very eyes on TV ..oh and in the supermarkets…on the streets & cafes over latte seated unlike the Italians within 60cm of the next person it’s business as usual.
As the community gains ‘herd immunity’ due to exposure, the infection and death rates will go down. The challenge is to get through the first wave of infection.
Mutation?
Aren’t there reports of it not ever leaving the body?
this is the key sentence It will become every man for himself.
during Spanish flu people were united into brotherhood following WWI, now it’s going to be like a civil war
The quick breakdown of civil order at the time of the New Orleans flood is the model. Western Society and civilisation is now gone.
– Russia & China a danger for Canada & the US ? Yea, sure. And I was bron yesterday, right ?
Europe is being riddled with it. Look at their numbers
there are speculations about how many will get infected and what is mortality rates so here are few stats
– around 170k people die every year in Australia around 0.7%
among them around 80% are elderly people over 65
– there are around 4 million people over 65 in this country
– corona has mortality of somewhere between 1 and 4% based on general population but since mortality rate is not same across various ages it cannot be simply compared between Japan with old population and Iran with younger population.
– so far mortality for those over 65 is somewhere between 6 and 10%
– if 60% of Australian population evenly gets infected by corona (as many are predicting) that would include 2.2 million of those over 65 of which around 200k will die
– Around half of Australians have at least one chronic disease and one in 9 Australians have two or more chronic diseases
– 2.7m have asthma, 600k have COPD, 1.2m diabetes, 1.2m hearth disease, 0.5m cancer and 2.5m hypertension (of these 3.6 million are over 65)
– that’s 5 million under age of 65 with chronic hearth, lung or endocrine disease
– death rate for those with these diseases is between 8 and 12% but among younger (under 65) people probably somewhere around 4-8% – if 60% gets infected it will cause around 300k extra deaths
– Assuming 60% infection rate equally spread among all ages that’s 500k deaths, some will overlap with 170k deaths normally in a year so let’s say 400k extra deaths – that’s more than doubling of death rate
– if 20 % gets infected equally spread among all ages that would be 130k extra deaths
… and so on and so on …
Thanks goes to ”the good doctor”.
Although that made me feel guilty for not riding this morn due to wariness of wet windscreens.
btw those overlap death rates will be attributed to corona as even though they were going to die anyway corona tipped them over the edge and will be counted as such and the normal death rate will be disregarded adding to the fear.
Run this through Google Translate and realise our clinical apparatus is in no way ready for such a struggle…..these are the official treatment protocols of the Chinese Dept of Health
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yzygj/s7652m/202003/a31191442e29474b98bfed5579d5af95.shtml
We are in for the fight of our lives and need to go on a wartime footing……the biggest casualty will be Australian’s quaint faith in their government which has morphed into a parasitic monster over the last twenty years. On a personal note I am very interested in the 2/3 hydrogen 1/3 oxygen nebuliser made by the Shanghai company mentioned for family reasons.
“On a personal note I am very interested in the 2/3 hydrogen 1/3 oxygen nebuliser”
I predict explosive sales of this product.
Booming sales for nebulizers, and personalised nebulizer accessories, for those who want to stand out from the crowd and impress their family and friends.
Been quietly stocking up on Ventolin – 6M supply assuming 10x normal use
plus stuff for airways
another trip to CW today for cough lollies, friars balsam, senega ammonia more ventolin, eucalytus oil
also ammo today, just in case
plus fuel cans/fuel
@Swampy…….if you have an ensuite get yourself a spare exhaust fan….coronavirus patient should be in a negative pressure room with the windows open……be ready to give up the main bedroom if so……most people’s exhaust fan are not industrial grade and won’t survive running full time for a month.
All the government has to do is to close the border, close all the schools, stop all public transport, close all the roads to private use, and it will be over in two weeks.
We won’t do that though.
that’s what’s going to happen but it will not be over in two weeks
If they do it NOW, it’ll be over in two weeks.
By the time they actually do it, it’ll be too late.
Just read that two GP doctors who got infected went to a medical conference. The hospital may be the last place you want to be right now.
Of course not.
2 weeks = 4% of the year. That’s 4% of “GDP”.
The most important consideration after profit maximizations!
What about relations?
Viruses don’t recognize boarders or human laws …
Not that one could imagine a Dr Strangelove scenario where a big chicken pox party is advanced for nefarious reasons.
Just walked past some folk on their way out of Woolies buying TP in bulk. Woolies obviously not enforcing their limits….
My local IGA had mountains of toilet paper in multiple aisles. They are making a statement to the Tulip buyers.
Woolies at Ermo is still out of TP.
Went to Coles West Ryde yesterday no TP.
Then walked over to Woolies West Ryde and before walking in bumped into my mate Jerry.
Had a good yarn about my tooth removal while watching heaps of customers walking out off Woolies with TP.
Cool I said to my mate they look like they’ve got heaps of TP.
Went in to find the people in the store with TP in their trollies had gotten the last of it.
Around a dozen people were milling around the TP section with one talking to a store employee who was saying that as soon as the truck turns up its all gone within an hour or 2.
Fken Jerry!
How many [email protected] holes do we have in this country
Just in time for International Womens Days: https://babylonbee.com/news/warren-returns-to-tribe-in-shame-after-failing-to-retake-land-from-the-white-man
Excellent.
Sheesh. Being a bit hard on Liawatha there, aren’t you?
she did great job of stealing moderate leftists’ votes from Sanders
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/shopping/man-charged-over-alleged-assault-after-big-w-toilet-paper-sells-out-c-731521
That did not take long …
Imagine the biff when the food runs out.
+1000. Seeing Boomers have less physical biff they lose out?
Boomers will just eat their children
Ah Sarah Hanson-Young…
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/sarah-hanson-young-wrote-court-reference-for-friend-charged-after-he-slapped-wife-20200305-p5479n.html
Bridget McKenzie
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/unbeknown-to-me-mckenzie-rejects-sports-rorts-back-dating-claim-20200305-p547d4.html
Ventolin costs $10 per inhaler.
It saved my son from pneumonia. 3 puffs every 2 hours (wake up to administer).
Ventolin will keep your family safe way longer than toilet paper
I paid $5 the other day, or mayb 7. There;s a generic alt which I think is around $4.
Ventolin + a spacer = smart investment
Of course asthmatics etc should be on preventers and have stock on hand if so diagnosed by GPs
Yeah the spacer ensures maximum ventolin dose from each atomiser puff.
Ventolin helps stop Coronavirus patients going all the way to the last gasp oxygen ventilation stage.
Bloody vital when ICU is as popular as toilet paper
do you need a prescription?
OTC
Yes, check Chemsit warehouse website.
I’m presuming everyone has had their Pneumonia shot?
Do you have a link to the product? OTC?
https://youtu.be/7k20VFZeLKY
Powerful but short interview with an old lady who was 10 during the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic
A secret coronavirus testing facility has been abruptly shutdown after nearby office workers discovered it was located in their public building.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-testing-facility-shutdown-after-officer-workers-discover-it-in-their-building/news-story/c954831b19eede7f96b7486503dbc661
Sunspots again
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/cyclones-spreading-south-could-cause-tens-of-billions-in-damage/12020218
Talking Heads … so how did we get here?
Mainstream economists often hold the view that criticisms of econometrics are the conclusions of sadly misinformed and misguided people who dislike and do not understand much of it. This is really a gross misapprehension. To be careful and cautious is not the same as to dislike. keuzenkampAnd as any perusal of the mathematical-statistical and philosophical works of people like for example Nancy Cartwright, Chris Chatfield, Hugo Keuzenkamp, John Maynard Keynes, Tony Lawson, Asad Zaman, Aris Spanos, Duo Qin, and David Freedman, would show, the critique is put forward by respected authorities. I would argue, against “common knowledge”, that they do not misunderstand the crucial issues at stake in the development of econometrics. Quite the contrary. They — just as yours truly — know them all too well, and are not satisfied with the validity and philosophical underpinning of the assumptions made for applying its methods.
Let me try to do justice to the critical arguments on the logic of probabilistic induction and shortly elaborate — mostly from a philosophy of science vantage point — on some insights critical realism gives us on econometrics and its methodological foundations.
https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2020/03/05/econometrics-a-critical-realist-critique/
Time for a bank run.
https://twitter.com/adamseconomics/status/1235675789930065921
A customer of BENDIGO BANK sent me an OUTRAGEOUS letter that they received from the bank on 19 Feb 2020!
They had 14 days to explain WITH EVIDENCE as to why did they withdraw $69k from their account across 9 separate occasions otherwise their account will be LOCKED!
Yeah I’ve decided having a stash of cash in aud outside the bank is not a bad idea, even if in these virus laden days cash becomes non grata. It’s because I’m turning my first home savers account intro my emergency fund as I’ve stopped working due to the virus. I want that money accessible before i make decisions about my 2 term deposits
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/coronavirus-queensland-businesses-reporting-sunnybank-slowdown/12021778
So I guess Italian is the go ….
most of cases in smaller European countries have been recorded after testing people who returned from Italy and have no symptoms. Almost everyone coming from Italy has been tested positive – that can only mean everyone in Italy is positive
Various kinds of hysteria in the pink paper today. Two articles on shaky monster corporate debt including one by Mohamed El-Erian. Difficulty rolling over debt, fallen angels, huge B-minus borderline debt.
Strade Bianche cancelled.
http://www.steephill.tv/classics/strade-bianche/
Tirreno Adriatico too.
Milan San Remo I would be shocked if held.
Giro will be at risk even in May
If you’ve got plans to head to ze Shpring Clashicks for fricking Belgian beers and frites, I’d be pulling stumps maybe
Wonder if ASO will be getting nervous about the TDF
Fk what a shame, it’s truly the best time of year March April May for cycling watching eh boom.
https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1235659597890940933?s=19
Amazingly this video is still up after 6hrs on Xinhua twitter feed of residents shouting “it’s all fake” as vice premier inspects quarantine, at a housing estate, also confirmed by other videos in the tweet.