Links 25 March 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen
Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


  1. EUROPE …

    Live UK heads for recession ‘of a scale not seen in modern history’ as activity collapses – live updates … UK Telegraph

    • Worst reading in over two decades for UK activity as services sector craters
    • Drop in output exceeds even height of financial crisis
    • Data show European economies in freefall
    • Readings likely to worsen as lockdowns take effect
    • European stocks rally despite dire data, FTSE rallies after falling to lowest level since October 2011
    • Sunak under pressure to protect Britain’s 5m self-employed workers
    • Russell Lynch: Yes, the economy is freezing – but focus on the jobs numbers
    “European PMIs are… Well, There Is No Word For That!” … Zerohedge

    • Maybe those new Submarines they are making in SA and would supply jobs n growff can use them as target practice?

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Holey fvck the subs.

        What’s going to happen to them?

        All this for a vanishing poodle.

        • happy valleyMEMBER

          Talking of the poodle, how is he going to make his fortune in lobbying, with Straya about to be totally decimated?

        • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

          only Scotty from Marketing is so dense that he is still pretty sure the music is playing. In fact, is that his and Mrs Scotty’s song that the band on the good ship Australia are playing ? Time for a waltz !

          • david collyerMEMBER

            Margin Call: “If I take my hand off, the world gets really focking fair really focking quickly and nobody wants that”.


    • billygoatMEMBER

      You guys need to watch ‘Resident Evil’ where the powers that be release ‘The T Virus’ to rid the world of disease ridden humankind. Cult film – folk go feral and ear each other. Fear monger omg media – message of con fusion (con being trick – sleight if hand…fusion – merging of conflicting ideas )



      “America doesn’t bail out the losers. America was built by bailing out winners. By rigging a nation of the winners, for the winners, by the winners.”

      Great scene from excellent movie about US housing crash, 99 homes:

  2. haroldusMEMBER

    Just occurred to me.

    With all this free time on everyone’s hands, there may be a few Daigou welcoming parties, in the cities.

  3. haroldusMEMBER

    I’m a fat p!sshead whose work made me go in yesterday before locking it down.

    I’m fvcked.

    We have a social group of three families all the same age, the kids get on well.

    Have agreed the kids go and live with any of the other families if we go.

    Mental note get missus or survivors to advise MB of harry’s demise.

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      harden up. CBA still haven’t got their $h1t together and it’s business as normal – people working from the office (some teams have gone to A Team B Team schedules but they’re the exception).

      Just quietly, I’m pretty sure Comyn and Scotty from Marketing grew up licking the same windows

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Who have you decided gets to shag the missus after your funeral?

      Asking for a friend

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            If I thought my mate Harry was actually going to die from this virus i wouldn’t ask such a question publicly here on MacroBusiness,…id ask privately.

            We are writing and planning to sing a duet together don’t you know.
            Something along the line of Kenny and Dollys, islands in the stream.
            We are having trouble thinking of a name for our song.
            Any ideas from the MB crew would be appreciated.

        • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

          Thats too bloody far buddy.
          You 2 fellas need to back the fk down.
          Harry wants me to be the step father to his Children when he dies, not mongrel dogs like yous!
          Well he hasn’t actually asked me yet and Ive never meet his family but Im sure he’d want it to be me.

          Pretty sure.

    • the chance of you and your wife contracting the virus and dying from corona is 1 in million and probably much much lower (maybe lower than 0.1 in million if we are to trust Germans) – assuming you are around 40
      maybe you should collectively start playing lotto because chances are better

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        The Germans are locking down. Germans are inherently organized and have a deep respect from Science. It’s an intellectual culture. They have 8 hospital beds per 1000. We have less than half that.

        If you are looking for comparable numbers, look at Spain or Italy. They struggle with governance and service delivery too.

        • Also the Germans: COVID diagnoses decline on the weekends cos nobody’s at work.
          Stop looking for a master race, there isn’t one.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            The engineering culture in embedded in the German language. Germany & Austria are doing a better job than the Anglo-Saxon countries.
            (I did my early schooling there, so deeply biased.)

    • Some of your posts are funny – do you think you could spend you remaining time writing and leave a cache of treasure for us to weep over when you’re gone?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Pr∅n stash please.

      Note: that’s your Pr∅n stash, not your Pr∅n ‘tash.
      No one should ever have to see that again.

        • drsmithyMEMBER

          With the possible exception of the Abbot Government (and let’s face it, ScoMo’s is the spiritual successor of that), it’s hard to think of any Government in generations that would have handled the situation as badly.

          You may not have liked Rudd/Gillard – and I sure as hell don’t like Howard – but none of them would have fvcked around like this.

          • Ok, you probably don’t want to hear this but I think Tony Abbott has a far better sense of history than the vacuous talking head ScoMo (Tonz actually reads). He seems to understand how events can quickly spiral out of control.

            Abbott has called for an immediate shut down and has warned that Australia needs to be more self-reliant.

            He was also pretty good in 2007 when H5N1 broke out, stocking up on anti-virals and putting in place measures to improve Australia’s pandemic readiness. Unlike the current moronic health minister, Abbott appeared to take the pandemic threat back then seriously.

          • drsmithyMEMBER

            I agree the mechanical response from the Abbot Government would probably have been better, and Abbot for all his myriad faults was at least prepared to make decisions and I think would have been able to wrap his head around the scope, scale and gravity of the situation (which ScoMo – much like Trump – has not, at least based on how he talks about it).

            But they would suffer the same ideological problems in acting both pre-emptively (eg: dramatic restrictions on inbound travel months ago) and in response to immediate, and especially long-term economic and social consequences.

            The Coalition has spent decades fvcking social security infrastructure in this country and cruelly attacking those who need it. That’s a very long road to come back from overnight (very nearly literally overnight).

      • Could the latest changes to their ‘policy’ of restrictions be more confusing, convoluted or illogical?

        I read the transcript. Or tried to. Still not sure what they were trying to say.

        What we need is some simple bullet points so people can absorb it and comply or adapt as required. Maybe a system with different levels – possibly colour-coded – and clearly demarcated? Not a thousand words of gibberish that we need a lawyer to decipher every day as incremental changes are made somewhere in that wall of static he called a statement.

        For marketers these people are terrible at selling just about everything.

        Anyone seen a petition online for a UBI, a la the proposal here at MB recently? With people idle everywhere it might get a decent amount of support. And we know that democratic processes are important to these leaders.


  4. OK. Here is one I just thought about. I rent, right, and I’m in the at-risk age group. What if my landlord suddenly decided to panic sell?

    Fvck. I am going to have a house full of strangers, twice a week, for multiple weeks touching surfaces, coughing etc etc. it would be quite impossible to adequately decontaminate the pace after every open for inspection. What am I supposed to do?

    They should lock the place down quickly and stop auctions

    • If the REA rings with such info, advise them you are feeling a little feverish and are awaiting a scovid test result.

    • open homes are banned now
      but even if they are not, you could ask for your home to be fully disinfect after every open home
      that would make them think twice about it …

    • innocent bystanderMEMBER

      I’m in the same boat.
      In fact last year it was on the cards they would sell but I think they changed their mind cause it is Perth and prices had dropped and I am good long term tenant so they are getting a good return.
      I don’t know their financial position (about from being greedy) so I am thinking I might get the call, might not.
      If I have no legal option (eg no home opens) then I will play hard ball with whatever means available.
      For house sales no home opens just means no free for all during a time slot, they can still have serial private home opens – that is my interpretation of the current advices.

    Independent schools may ask for money to survive COVID-19 crisis

    are they still going to be called independent after all of this money needed for them to survive?
    Government didn’t force them to close so they should not ask for help

    “If the COVID-19 situation doesn’t improve by Easter, some independent schools will be in an extremely difficult position,” he said. “Independent schools are not-for-profit and operate on thin margins; they rely on school fees to meet their expenses.

    yeah, they operate on tiny margins by spending money on pools and half a million salaries for principals

    if they go bankrupt, government can buy them out for peanuts and turn into public schools – finally some public schools will have fancy pools

    • I don’t know here… the thing is, some would say if it wasnt for an incompetent govt that let in the infected these businesses would be running fine right now.
      So govt has brought this on the business and then now are planning on buying it on the cheap? Doesnt sound fair either.
      Somehow the reality is sinking in that the virus was never going to be contained unless we shut down all borders and decimated tourism when we had a case count of 3. And stayed that way till rest of the year.

    • truthisfashionable

      Good reminder. Although annoying when one servo is $1.11per litre and the slightly closer one is $1.46 per litre.

      I almost choked when my Bunnings was out of swap and go gas cylinders on Sunday… until they decided to check the garden centre which was still half stocked.

      ABC news this morning, it sounds like this is the day to finish prep. I am still thinking to panic buy a coffee machine!

    • Theyvate closing petrol stations in Italy because non is buying petrol, not because there is no enough petrol to sell


    Coronavirus: Poll shows Kiwis back harsh measures but are extremely worried about virus … Henry Cooke and Luke Malpass … Stuff NZ

    … extract …

    … Nine in ten (91 per cent) Kiwis thought the virus would hit the economy “badly” or “very badly” – with 60 per cent saying “very badly”. A majority (58 per cent) were worried about catching Covid-19 themselves and just 17 per cent thought New Zealand’s medical system was adequately prepared to deal with a “large-scale outbreak”.

    Many more Kiwis were worried about the virus itself than earlier in March – 58 per cent compared to 41 per cent.

    The country was split on whether or not such a large-scale outbreak could be prevented by New Zealand’s border and quarantine arrangements, with 41 per cent saying they would and 41 per cent saying they wouldn’t. (The poll was undertaken before New Zealand was moved into level 3.)

    “People are a lot more worried than they were at the beginning of the month,” pollster John Utting told Stuff

    “People are definitely not confident that New Zealand will be able to prevent a large-scale outbreak.” … read more via hyperlink above …

  7. Fran Kelly finally stepped up and gave Greg Chunt and absolute pasting on AM this morning. Glorious radio.

  8. LOL @ corelogic daily index. Still ticking positive in Mel and Syd. Someone must have forgotten to turn off the random number generator that only pumps out positive numbers.

  9. drsmithyMEMBER

    What’s the MB view on Singapore Air surviving ? First world problems, but worried about my ~500k velocity points and (at least at the moment) they can be freely transferred back and forth between Velocity and KrisFlyer.

    • Out of all the airlines it most likely has the highest chance of surviving, given its already majority government owned. Furthermore, Singapore is better off than any other Asian nation so far in the virus impact.
      I can see Qantas getting nationalised (as it should be anyway), FWIW. Virgin may likely go under without support soon.

  10. “Modelling by Indonesian researchers suggests half the nat­ion’s 267 million people could be infected in the next few months if Indonesia continues as it has — with little testing and no rigorous lockdowns. The figure far eclipses the government’s prediction of 700,000 COVID-19 caseload.”

  11. So I’ve seen the 2nd newish car (less than 5yrs old) this week with the yellow police aware sticker & no number plates. Is his a sign some people are fleeing the country or just random probability. Maybe I should take a drive around car park at Sydney airport some time, though maybe they’ll all come back now that temp residents are going to get money.