Links 19 March 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


  1. A friend who is a dive instructor got the flick today.
    He expected it, he just hoped it would be in at least another week.
    Luckily he and his wife, who works part time, can tap their parents if things get too bad.
    They won’t get a bundle, just enough to get by.
    Others won’t have that good fortune.

  2. U.S. Airlines Ask for Bailout as They Spent 96% of Free Cash Flow on Buybacks from 2010-2019

    Please feck right off …. Pure greed.

  3. migtronixMEMBER

    Trumps a fkn idiot. I mean, after 3 years of sanctions and tariffs and calling everyone names it’s his own economy that’s going to sink the world? Because he moved so much manufacturing back and built so much wall and basically owned those globalists with USMCA instead of NAFTA – amirite?

  4. Held meetings today to see what we could do to hold on. To be honest I’ve been in business a friggin long time & never never never ever seen it like this. 1987 was a breeze, it was obvious really, tech/asia bubble WTF, GFC didn’t really happen & everyone pressed on anyway (how good is property in Aus & don’t we love MINING?), puff of smoke no big deal! THIS IS seriously a big deal. A VERY BIG DEAL. If you are a business owner right now you are in a big serious problem for the NEXT 6 – 8 – 12- 24 MONTHS, IF you even get close to making it. THIS IS VERY BIG. Every small business owner across the country should actually cut their losses immediately. They are on balance of probabilities going to lose their shirt anyway so they should CUT & RUN NOW. In 2 months time it is too fu?>ing late! Go now & go early, for your own sake. EVERY SME must consider their own personal situation & ask themselves can they “hold on” for 24 months & finance their business? The banks WILL NOT HELP, NO-ONE ELSE WILL HELP OR CARE. If you can’t answer in the positive you should fold ASAP! Believe me this is what needs to happen. Fold early. Its a [email protected]?ng nightmare out there in small business land. IF YOU HOLD ON IT WILL END BADLY. DO NOT HOLD ON. FOLD EARLY AND GO!

    • Rorke's DriftMEMBER

      I was smashed in the gfc and early 90s recessions. You didnt notice them. I guess it depends on your personal situation. Slighly offended you say they were nothing.
      I have a long term govt contract at the moment so might be luckier this round.

    • I REALLY am empathetic for small local businesses. Even on my local FB page a young couple posted last night that their coffee shop was supposed to open 23 March, now are opening today for take away coffees. I’m gonna buy one, but not sure what good it’ll do. Keeps me wondering, do I try splash cash around small busiensses, or just my favoured ones.

      We do all our shopping at local grocers now too, less new ‘Australians’ shop there and shelves are abundant, despite the MILD price increase

    • Consideration of my staff are the big problem. best thing for me is to just shut the doors, hold the stock for another day. Someday!!!!

  5. Boris Johnson writing in The Telegraph circa 2007:

    “… whatever it may now be conventional to say, that single biggest challenge is not global warming. That is a secondary challenge. The primary challenge facing our species is the reproduction of our species itself.

    The UN last year revised its forecasts upwards, predicting that there will be 9.2 billion people by 2050, and I simply cannot understand why no one discusses this impending calamity, and why no world statesmen have the guts to treat the issue with the seriousness it deserves.

    How the hell can we witter on about tackling global warming, and reducing consumption, when we are continuing to add so relentlessly to the number of consumers? The answer is politics, and political cowardice.

    There was a time, in the 1960s and 1970s, when people such as my father, Stanley, were becoming interested in demography, and the UN would hold giant conferences on the subject, and it was perfectly respectable to talk about saving the planet by reducing the growth in the number of human beings.

    But over the years, the argument changed, and certain words became taboo, and certain concepts became forbidden, and we have reached the stage where the very discussion of overall human fertility – global motherhood – has become more or less banned.”

  6. China PlateMEMBER

    “In China, the world’s second-biggest economy after the United States, the jobless rate rose to 6.2% in February, the highest since records began, and up from 5.2% in December”

    I wonder if the CPC has closed the pitchfork factories and banned imports of such as yet

  7. Two interesting pieces of gossip from the dodgy parts of the web.

    (a) Apparently AAHL in Geelong was involved in the creation of the corona virus. Why is this interesting? Because the fringe back story does not touch Australia at all. Link:

    (b) ASIS was involved in ensuring no one bailed out AAP, Link:

    Again, the point is not that either of these is true per se, but rather Russian fake news is trying to bring attention to these. No idea why, but no one makes allegations for no reason.

    Anyone know anything?

    • Yes I mean look at what China has done for all of us? Feck China. We are better off without them. We did fine before their big rise. We will be fine after their down fall.


    The usual poor performance of New Zealand’s public service …

    What’s new ? …

    Coronavirus: Auckland woman Maree Glading disappointed in checks at international arrivals … Chelsea Boyle … NZ Herald

    An Auckland mother is feeling disappointed and disconcerted by a low-level response at Auckland Airport upon her arrival from Singapore during the Covid-19 crisis.

    Mt Eden businesswoman Maree Glading, who co-founded I Love Pies, returned home on Wednesday morning after travelling with her young family across Central America and Southeast Asia for months.

    The 42-year-old said seeing first-hand the difference in response between those countries and New Zealand had left her feeling very exposed.

    “I don’t think I’m an expert by any stretch of the imagination, this is just my experience of this morning,” Glading said. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • This might help …

      Hudson: “The brain of the host is tricked into thinking that the parasite is a part of its body, to be protected. Economics is not about reality. It’s about the internal consistency of assumptions. It’s to build a beautiful system that, if it really worked, would be so appealing that students will be willing to suspend disbelief. That is what a good science fiction writer would do. The trick is to make readers willing to accept the assumptions that they’re given at the outset…”

      The civil mythology is in serious danger of implosion…

      As I’ve stated in the past … suspension of disbelief is legion in antiquarian mythos … some brought that forward and embellished it with bad maths and physics giving it the veneer of rigor.

  9. Reverse Transcriptase

    Finally some ‘woking’ re the fake India numbers. I have been saying this for 2 weeks now. This business of closing borders to Indian citizens is BS and will not be forgotten. It’s time for India to look after its own, not leave them in foreign countries where the mood against them is getting uglier by hour.

  10. NEW ZEALAND … The weakening economy through 2019 … coronavirus … and the most unaffordable housing in the English speaking world …

    When do the authorities at central and local level intend to lift the current effective ban on the development and construction of affordable housing … by sorting out land supply and the proper debt financing of infrastructure ? …

    NZ faces Covid-19 crisis with annual economic growth having slowed to 1.8% in the December quarter – a 6-year low … Jenee Tibshraeny … Interest Co NZ

    … and with the worst housing affordability within the English – speaking world at 7.0 times household incomes across the larger metros …

    2020 16th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

    • … while housing in the larger United States metros is 3.6 times annual household income … with the median price of serviced lots $US 50,000 …

      Lot Values Hit Record Highs (median $US50,000)…Natalia Sineavskaia… U.S National Association of Home Builders

      How much longer does the New Zealand government intend to ban the construction of affordable housing at or below 3.0 times annual household income Mr Twyford ? …

      … What blindingly obvious ‘supply lessons’ are being learned from Greater Christchurch ?

      New survey ranks NZ’s most and least affordable cities … Anne Gibson … New Zealand Herald

      Tired of the traffic hassles and back-to-work blues? Thought of moving to Christchurch to get a better life and lifestyle? That city turns out to be by far our most affordable when incomes are compared to house prices.

      Down south, the house prices are low but the incomes are high and out of eight areas just surveyed throughout New Zealand, Christchurch house-buyers have by far the best deal financially. … read more via hyperlink above …

  11. Why does Germany have such a low coronavirus death rate? … Justin Huggler … UK Telegraph (behind paywall)

    Scientists are struggling to understand why the death rate from the coronavirus is so much lower in Germany than other countries. Germany has seen just 27 deaths from the virus so far despite recording 10,082 infections — more than anywhere except China, Italy, Iran and Spain.

    That represents a fatality rate of just 0.2 per cent, compared to 7.9 per cent in Italy — raising hopes Germany might be doing something right that other countries can follow.

    The disparity has even led to allegations of a German cover-up by the Italian far-Right. But experts have cautioned that Germany may simply be at an earlier stage of the pandemic, and that death rates here may soon catch up.

    But they also point to other factors that may be helping keep the German death rate down … read more via hyperlink above (behind paywall) …
    Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)