Links 16 March 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


  1. Meanwhile, in Europe (specifically Austria) we’re on the verge of marshal law.

    Have to say though, I have much more trust in the integrity, sincerity and determination of the Austrian Govt. to fight this virus. They’ll win. This thing, it’s an armageddon machine.

    Prior to moving here I lived in Australia for 45 years. I know what it’s like in Melb.

    There will be bedlum.

    You will have people die on stretchers in hospital carparks because Morrison the Barbarian has gone down the absolutely insane UK route (kill’em all, let dog sort em out).

    You can’t take your capital gains with you. Shame!

    To the sensible one’s on here. A message:

    You cannot overestimate the s-storm that’s about to engulf you.

  2. “Apple closes all it’s stores”

    And when the dust settles, will re-open 50%, or less.

    That’s how it will go the world over.

    This pandemic is an opportunity for profiteers, thieves and other assorted free-market parasites to turn the screws.


  3. CORONAVIRUS: The UK Conservative governments odd ‘herd immunity’ strategy …

    … Why did the UK government make this decision ? …

    … Would Australia’s Liberals and New Zealand’s Nationals do the same thing ? …

    I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire … William Hanage … The Guardian

    Vulnerable people should not be exposed to Covid-19 right now in the service of a hypothetical future … read more via hyperlink above …
    Coronavirus: Millions of Britons will need to contract COVID-19 for ‘herd immunity’ … SkyNews United Kingdom

  4. A warning from Italy:

    “So here’s my warning for the United States: It didn’t have to come to this.

    We of course couldn’t stop the emergence of a previously unknown and deadly virus. But we could have mitigated the situation we are now in, in which people who could have been saved are dying. I, and too many others, could have taken a simple yet morally loaded action: We could have stayed home.

    What has happened in Italy shows that less-than-urgent appeals to the public by the government to slightly change habits regarding social interactions aren’t enough when the terrible outcomes they are designed to prevent are not yet apparent; when they become evident, it’s generally too late to act. I and many other Italians just didn’t see the need to change our routines for a threat we could not see.”

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      368 died in a day in Italy.

      We need to shut the place down. People, keep your kids home. Don’t sacrifice them for Scummo and his economy.

  5. T.K. of AAK!
    About a month ago I joked COVID-19 was exposing each East Asian country’s weakness. China had intransparent & authoritarian gov’t. Japan had inflexible & sclerotic bureaucracy. S Korea had irresponsible cult fanatics.

    Turns out US had all three together.

    Francois Balloux
    Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per-capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the covid-19 pandemic leads to a global economy collapse, many more lives will be lost than covid-19 would ever be able to claim. (12/12)

    So on one had you have some saying covid-19 it just a near term economic drama and formulate policy … where it reality its both a short and long term economic drama …. funnie how that works ….

  6. Even Paul Craig Roberts (who most people think of as a goofy old Reagan functionary in the Treasury) has advocated socialism. Yes, he used the word even and said he had decided it was the only solution for the mess everything has become – Covid-19 just being the last straw.

  7. truthisfashionable

    Sense of urgency and slight panic at the local Coles and woolies on opening as none of the shelves had been restocked (no nightfill or no stock to night fill?).

    Bumped into a couple from a different area, they have had no luck in their local so tried this one today. I mentioned it took me 8 different stores over the weekend before finding some TP at an Aldi only for them to have a 1 item limit anyway.

    At least the local Coles had some baked beans in ham sauce so I can see what all the fuss is about.

  8. Oh look, the FED and all the other central bankers are having a global wankathon! Rates to zero and funny money for aaaaaalllllllll!!!!!


    Capitalism is dying.

    The Old is dying.

    And the new cannot yet be born.

    • Can’t let the wealthy face a margin call. That would mean losses. Investing is risk free!

    • for a long period capitalism was making sure no idea about new world gets even mentioned anyone
      so to paraphrase the famous quote:
      now when we don’t need anymore to imagine an end to the world we still cannot imagine an end to capitalism

  9. Serious question, and I know this is somewhat capitalising (sounds like capitalism too!) on a bad situation. Is anyone else planning on buying equities and when?

    I’m a fan of ETFs, but I don’t feel like Aussie ones will recover too well. I’m thinking of either buying GGUS (internally geared US S&P500 fund with 2.8x leverage) – meaning every 1% the S&P goes up the fund goes up 2.8%.

    Another new one which is local is FANG, holding
    TESLA INC 15.4%
    NETFLIX INC 10.3%
    NVIDIA CORP 10.1%
    APPLE INC 9.7%
    TWITTER INC 9.6%

    Also – anyone had experience with NABS equity builder? lower rate and non-callable margins. Soon to be <4% interest with a coming cut.

    • I wonder how like Wilkins was with Rita Wilson, and how close

      The risk apparently is 1.5m (droplet) and 2 hrs. It sounds like 2hrs is way too long

  10. desmodromicMEMBER

    AUD gold spiked $100 on open to $2571. Settling now around $2500. I wonder how long before PM orders can’t be filled due to demand?