Links 11 March 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


  1. Mr Petitjean started purchasing the finest motorcars he could in the late 1960s.

    Instead of making conservative investments in life insurance, mutual funds, or real estate, he put all his savings into the collection.

    Though considered an unconventional strategy at the time, Petitjean’s decision helped him to avoid the worldwide savings and loan scandal and the European debt crisis altogether.

    Clever cookie.

    • I just sold one of my rotors. Rx4 sedan. Mostly original. Not running. Didn’t advertise it, just waited for a wanted ad. Had a genuine buyer come look, made a decision on the spot. $12k and paid half as the deposit. Turns out he sold a Hk monaro at Shannons for $180k last year.

      • $180k is decent coin for a Monaro! Mind you the cost to restore these days is going up and up!

        Rx4 sedan would be nice to cruise around in. I don’t see many around anymore. Especially the coupes …

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I’m been thinking about this and there’s a simple solution in our free market capitalist society. Life saving procedures should be auctioned. I’m fine with that.

    • China PlateMEMBER

      With all this bug talk lately did i miss some plate tectonic action. Is new jersey an island of hawaii now

    • happy valleyMEMBER

      He learnt from Scotty from Marketing or vice versa that when there’s a crisis, it always good to be on holiday.

      Plus, as with the Straya, the US has states and it’s probably all their fault and if not them, then that of the Democrats (= Labor for Straya).

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Der, it’s still Labor’s fault when you think about it, obviously, not Dem’s fault.

  2. Pandemic Panic has started in the US.

    “Can confirm. Seattle’s hospitals and ER’s are overrun by people who have the flu and/or are testing positive for #coronavirus. Our nurses are pulling so many double-shifts that they are getting sick and have to be quarantined while traveling nurses are flooding into the state.”

    The country will not cope.

    Also, massive events pre-emptively shut down all over Europe – Germany, NL, Spain, France.

    This is as bad as it gets. Worse than a global war which needs massive re-investment to re-build everything. All at a time when the integrity of the global financial system is less than zero.

    Black Swans.

    There will be Black Swans!

        • I hope it does lol.. I’ll have extra funemployment time. Plus I might go work with my friend who is a panel beater and restore rusty metal. Safer than going to the city where all the infected people are. Cars take a couple of months to restore and by that time I think the madness will have subsided.

  3. China PlateMEMBER

    It seems old Vladimir (yes we are on first name bases) is not as smart as some make out.

    “Riyadh’s unprecedented hike in supply follows the collapse of talks last week.”

    “Russia rejected OPEC’s call to deepen existing supply cuts, prompting OPEC to scrap all production limits and Russia to say it would also boost output”

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      I reckon you will find that Russia’s scope to ride out the ensuing financial chaos – now protected by the financial sanctions it has faced since 2014, which have limited its borowings and the borrowings of its major state owned corporates [more than half the Russian corporate world], an awfully large amount of gold, and a public which has a very low debt servicing need – may be superior to a highly leveraged Saudi Arabia.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        Thanks gunna
        I understand what you say but i’m more concerned about the us not the house of saudi but as the two – us and the saudis – are so intertwined the us can’t afford for the saudis to fall. Then again the ME perhaps would not be that much different if it did

      • I am not saying it is imminent but from here the time when oil is bought only with gold is rising up over the horizon. It was always the end game when dollars become too hard for the rest of the world to use and now we can see that the US is going to restrict the use of dollars by other countries to the breaking point.

      • China PlateMEMBER

        yes ok but new players will jump in to fill the void once the price becomes viable again. Capitalism at work. Sure there would be a lag for the new entrants but hey

  4. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Number of coronavirus cases in Australia has just gone exponential. The MSM is good on creating hysteria but very bad at asking the really important question, which is : why is the border still open?

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Some friends who live near LA wrote to say a virulent flu is ripping through their community and UC Campus.
    They can’t get tested, and one UC Staff Member died of the “flu” last week. They think it’s been out in the wild for at least a month.

    • The US is probably as bad as Italy is now. Up until a week ago they had only done 500 tests in a country of 300 million. Australia has done 18000.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        Yesterday a congressman who shared a flight with Trump was diagnosed with the big V.
        Today Trump announces 17 day retreat at one of his Resorts.
        only saying. He is 74
        Why does this comment attract the moderator ?

        • The UK health minister has it.
          A bunch of US Senators are self quarantining.
          It is possible that Trump has it.

    • Note that we are not going to be able to be tested here either. There will not be enough test kits. Health depts. preparing on the basis this is a fact.

  6. The Traveling Wilbur


    Mark Hulbert wrote in MarketWatch last year, “this pattern’s historical track record can be traced to only a few years, specifically, the third year of the presidential four-year term. During the other three years of the four-year term, in contrast, the pattern is statistically non-existent.” Hulbert traced this pattern all the way back to 1896, which is a lengthy amount of history to rely on.

    • That is because we have an aging population and don’t need as many hospital beds….oh hang on.

  7. Dark Mofo is off.
    “”I know that [cancellation] will murder an already massacred tourism environment, but I feel like I have no choice,” Museum of Old and New Art (MONA) founder David Walsh said in a statement online.

    “Right now, the Government and MONA are each on the hook for $2 million to run Dark Mofo. That’s bad.

    “What’s worse, as far as I’m concerned, is that if we ran Dark and nobody came, I’d lose $5 million or more, because I would have to cover the absent ticket revenue.”

    Mr Walsh said Dark Mofo creative director Leigh Carmichael had crunched the numbers and found that if a staff member contracted COVID-19 just before the festival, it would need to be cancelled anyway, with colleagues having to quarantine themselves for two weeks.

    “That kind of blowout would affect MONA’s program, and I’d be back to subsisting on the diet I had when I was eighteen — pineapples and mint slice biscuits,” Mr Walsh said.

    “I’d rather be a rich coward than a poor hero. I’m pouring cold water on Dark Mofo while there’s still water to pour.””