Links 10 March 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


  1. holy sh1t ASX futures down a further 5% from the Monday close. Amazing!

    AUD doesn’t care at all.

  2. C.M.BurnsMEMBER

    FTSE down 7.4%; NYSE down 7.07% at the time of logging off (1am AEST). Shame that I need sleep as I feel the fun is only just starting.

    Will the ASX limit-down on open as a result of overseas markets ? And if yes, does anyone know the home address of the Kouk, Switzer and the rest of the #justtheflubro spruikers ? They may need an ambulance sent around to their home.

    • And yet the poo is reaching for 67. What in the fvck is going on with an almost 3c swing in a speculative peso in one day. Unbelievable.

  3. The WHO has just clarified (based on the China data) that PNEUMONIA is included in the 80% mild/moderate cases (in the ‘moderate’ part of that definition)


    • Look up walking pneumonia – levels of pneumonia thingy. The level between say a single lung upper infection to a full blown case of double pneumonia. I’ve had full blown twice in my life as an early teen and in my early 20s in the military. Compared to say an upper chest infection its like day and lights out – week or two completely gone with another two weeks just to get up and around. My last lights out experience, whilst being super fit, and getting out of bed for the first time to take a shower was like waking up as a 100 year old man.

      • Yep Skip. I had combined Pleurisy & Pneumonia as a kid & they thought I was gone! A steam/oxygen tent & a lot of back pummeling & hacking got me there, although I don’t remember much of it…… Not to be taken lightly. I just had a Pneumonia shot for this round……!

    • I have had pneumonia and didn’t even realise I had it. The only clue I had was waking up sweaty three nights in a row and my hypochondria kicking in to get it checked out.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      R 3 to R 4. How ducking stupid are the federal government?

      1 in 25 infected will die.

      Looking at the math, In 2 months our country will be on its knees. You don’t need much math to work this out. Looks like a 1.5 increase in cases (in Oz) everyday. This number is consistent with the spread before shutdowns in other countries. We have to act NOW.

      Thanks to the stupid, greedy chunts in federal government, the ‘elite’ fee for service schools and the Uni VCs for making the situation worse.

      Unless there is are MASSIVE shutdowns THIS week, we are going to be worse than ITALY.

      MacroBusiness boys, you have grossly underestimated the situation.

      I was mocked for panicking a month ago. No doubt those who lack mathematical literacy and imagination will mock me again.

      We have to go full China rollout to survive. If we do, we might just get through this intact.

      The question is, can our government even conceive of what has to be done? Don’t test, don’t tell will lead us to disaster.

      Shut down the country for 4 to 6 weeks. Let’s redo our summer holidays, at home. We will save up to one million lives and 4 million people from sevre lifelong respiratory problems.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        And in 6 to 8 weeks China will be running again, and if we shut down, we’ll be done and filling boats full of dirt again.

        Good luck everyone.

      • Why do you think it will be that bad when the diamond princess mortality was only 1.5%?

        The mortality is being over reported in Italy because there are obviously many untested infective people

        The cruise ship was the most extensively tested population, giving us a true mortality rate

        And they were likely a much older group than the Australian general population, so the real mortality is likely 1%

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          Last Italian number I looked said 8% mortality. That’s inconsistent with the 3~4% elsewhere.

          It takes 2 to 6 weeks to die after symptoms show. The people from the diamond princess are still in that window. They also have the benefit of being the first to be treated. Death rates are always low to start and increase over time.

          Look at China, Korea and Italy. Mostly look at Italy, as its the most similar to us, politically.

          It’s not just older people who will die from it. Once the hospitals are full, other illnesses will become deadly due to lack of services.

          • Firstly, the Italian mortality figures are about 5%, not 8%

            Second, the diamond princess is the most intensively tested population
            The Italian mortality is likely to be spuriously high because there are a lot of untested people with relatively mild disease

            Third, the diamond princess is also the most temporally advanced population observed (aside from China), so don’t think there is likely to be a late increase in mortality in them

            1-2% mortality is more realistic, and inline with Chinese data as well (for whatever that is worth)

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            I’m not sure what you’re saying. It’s OK that 250,000 to 500,000 will die unnecessarily?

            Even if it’s 1~2% (at the moment), it’s going to close all hospital services for 2 to 4 months if left unchecked. All major cities will be shut down.

            A 1~2% death rate is a HUGE number for a communicable disease.

            A 1.5 growth rate means the number of cases will be 292 times higher in 2 weeks. ie around 18,000, of which 3,600 would need a hospital bed.
            In 3 weeks, we will get to 300,000 cases. That’s 3,000 ~ 6,000 deaths, and 60,000 hospital beds.

            As I said, best of luck to you and your family. This is big. Let’s hope someone in the federal government understands exponential growth.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          If infection stays consistent at 1.5x per day, in 30 days 12 million Australians will be infected. The lower bound of the 40% ~ 70% anticipated population infection.

          And for the next few days, this is preventable.

          Happy Tuesday.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        The Australian government’s plan is to let Australians die, then they can import more ‘vibrants’ to replace them.

        • Poor Fellow My Country

          Speaking of our closest bilateral trading partner in the vibrancy sector (we import their citizens and provide jobs, health and social security to them and they export money earnt from us as remittances), I see that the missing figures in their COVID-19 cases are more fraudulent than the work of an auction results editor at DomainFax on a late Saturday arvo.

          Just 47 cases???? Bullsh!t

  4. Why did these type A alpha males on Wall Street halt trade? Don’t like the free market all of a sudden? Grow a pair and man up. No guts no glory.

  5. 2. This single picture explains the concept of *flattening the epidemic curve* to non-specialists without requiring any additional text. Looking at the picture, you can see that even if you don’t reduce total cases, slowing down the rate of an epidemic can be critical.

    If you only learn one thing about #COVID19 today make it this: everyone’s job is to help FLATTEN THE CURVE. With thanks to @XTOTL & @TheSpinoffTV for the awesome GIF. Please share far & wide.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Yep. Flatten the curve equals, close the borders, isolate patients and test everyone.




    “Professor MacIntyre urged the government to enforce travel restrictions and containment measures for as long as possible.”


    • Arthur Schopenhauer


      And read that thread. There is a reason the WHO delegation was not able to talk to or enter hospitals in W.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Instead of ‘will not cope’, it’s already ‘cannot cope’.

      Read on the online forum about people’s personal experience queuing up for coronavirus testing at Westmead yesterday. The phone is set to auto-hangup because the nurse cannot do the testing and also answer the phone, and people have to sit on the floor due to lack of seats.

    • It is my biggest fear that greedy capitalist governments will wait for hospitals to become overwhelmed before entering lockdown. Do some roughs calcs and you will realise that there will be another 5-10 times more people who will need hospital care over the following 2-3 weeks, and hospitals have no choice but to start choosing who lives and dies. That typically means elderly people will make way for the young which is my theory as to why the death rates among the elderly are so astronomical.

      I urge everyone to write a letter to NSW Health Minister and Premier pleading that the School and Uni semester break starting April 9 be used as the lock-down period. Have health workers test as many sick people as possible over that two week period.

  7. So after hours doc said that they have to wear this “protective gear” – being a surgical mask, an apron and gloves. But then made a remark on how initially the advice was “hazmat suit only” and once the govt realised that’s not feasible, it turned to just this.. And if docs are not wearing it, the policy is, they go into quarantine for 2 wks. Expressed frustration that there are many health care workers out there that we sitting at home for 2 wks now coz they werent wearing this flimsy piece of plastic while seeing patients that then tested positive.
    Then, we started talking about whether to get tested for corona. Doc said the govt is obliging to testing if families want it. But once swabs get sent in, they have to be approved by public health authorities to actually get tested.. weird. Doc said they are getting approved for now. So about 10k have been tested and only 80 turned up. Doc reckoned the actual infected numbers run in 100s or thousands.
    So we got into this weird logic about “can get tested if you want” and I go “yeah maybe we should but I worry I can’t get in the path labs anywhere to do it”.. Then Doc said there might not be much point if someone is dealing with it well.
    Currently govt is shoving all those positives in hospitals – whether or not they need the hospital equipment (which is a silly waste of resources). And close contacts are being tested but not quarantined.
    When I asked her what happens when even a fraction of the people turning up at the pathology labs end up positive and then queue up at the hospitals by the end of the week, doc shrugged.. reminded me that a week ago, their advise was also hazmat suits… so the policy will have to change! Also noted that only has so many masks left in the bag, so once the masks ran out, no more house calls. Govt apparently spoke a lot about releasing PPE gear, but seen none of it.
    This is going downhill fast now.
    The issue is, with the bushfires, we had lifetime firefighters leading the response, here we have politicians leading the response – we should be having a doctor leading it who knows the ins and outs of the feasibility and constraints of what can be done. Politicians with their tin ears and glass houses will just go out there with some silly policy and then change it next wk when it is no longer popular.
    It’s a mess.

  8. Relief for Mr Wang:
    “Only under the leadership of President Xi can there be such ­effective measures to put this sudden and fast-spreading epidemic under control.” Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Reuters.
    “China pulled this off.”