The Grattan Institute has provided growth projections for the spread of coronavirus throughout Australia, based on the experiences of other infected nations:
…as the Figure below shows, the coronavirus continues to grow rapidly in Australia. We are still on the ‘scary’ part of the curve. As of yesterday, we had 449 confirmed COVID-19 cases. Italy had about the same number of cases on February 26, and now has more than 28,000.
We don’t know how the number of Australian cases will grow in the future. Spain, Iran, and Italy stayed roughly on the path of doubling every two days (shown above). France and the UK doubled every 3 days. Singapore has managed to slow its growth, with cases now doubling every 10 days. In the past week, Australia has doubled its cases every 3-to-4 days.
The actual number of people infected with COVID-19 is likely to be larger than we know now. It takes time for somebody to contract the virus, develop symptoms, get a test, and then get diagnosed. The Figure below shows the number of new cases each day in China between January and early February. The researchers, Wu and McGoogan, used detailed patient records to establish when symptoms first became apparent (in red) and when people were diagnosed (in orange).
Chinese cities were put into lockdown from 24 February. By then, the ‘real’ rate of new infections was five times higher than newly diagnosed cases. The lockdowns slowed the growth in people reporting symptoms almost immediately, but official numbers continued to grow for 7-to-10 days.
The impact of the new measures Australia has introduced will take time to show up in official cases. It’s a step in the right direction, but we are unlikely to see the flow-through to lower case numbers for another week.
The Grattan Institute are doing an excellent job on the coronavirus. I tip my hat.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
