Worst ever housing affordability spruik gets worserer

Stephen Koukoulas (“the Kouk”) has once again claimed that housing affordability is no worse today than 20 or 30 years ago:

As usual, The Kouk has focused on one thing only – initial mortgage repayments – while ignoring all other factors, including:

  • The size of the deposit required;
  • Repayment size over the full 25 to 30 year loan term; and
  • How long it take to repay the mortgage.

I comprehensively debunked the Kouk’s faulty methodology in 2016.

CoreLogic has also debunked The Kouk’s claim, showing that the number of years required to save a deposit has ballooned:

In short, today’s home buyer are facing a difficult loan repayment schedule due to the combination of high home prices, low inflation and low income growth.

Because of these factors, a massive mortgage today will remain a very big mortgage in a decade’s time.


Leith van Onselen
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  1. Jeez he’s a tedios fk.

    Jess Irvine now she has a house is screaming blue murder about how much bullsh%t it is after for years being big Straya and whatever other cognitive dissonance she practised

  2. Yes and that very large mortgage will be the banks problem because most will never be able to repay interest let alone principal
    And who will be paying, the tax payer
    The poor old sucker

    • maybe borrowers will never repay all the debt at the end, but surely they will be left with nothing and get sentenced to decade of being bank slaves giving away everything they earn to banks –

    • I refuse to bail these **nkers out! I’ll withhold my taxes if they dare 😉

      Bail the savers in instead!

  3. Kouk-aburra s#its on the old gum tree,
    Merry merry king of spruik is he.
    Laugh, Kouk-aburra, laugh, Kouk-aburra,
    Gay your life must be!

  4. Nice work operating on the premise that interest rates will stay at historically low levels for the next three decades too.

    • Yeah, they’ll never go up, ever. Relax 😉

      The dipstick RBA has railroaded us into a dead-end. Rates can never rise – even if the market pushes them higher the RBA will have to counteract that ‘yield curve management’ i.e. money printing to buy long dated bonds at various points on the curve. Thing is, this will NEVER end. Print, print, print …. followed by … worthless currency.

  5. At the risk of repetition, haven’t we figured out yet that the size of the debt doesn’t matter!
    It will never have to be repaid, one way or another. Either the OCR is going to zero and below ( most likely) in which case negative mortgage rates will pay the sucker off for the indebted or there’ll be a massive bust – in which case debts will have no option except to be forgiven.
    I’m afraid all this “Look at the size of the debt!” is the yesterdays thinking that I grew up with.
    (Ooooo! Grammarly just told me my post was ‘angry!:)

      • Goldstandard1MEMBER

        Debt must always be repaid. Eventually either by unemployment (in which case houses are sold under duress), or bank bail outs.
        Suggest unemployment will be before bank bailouts.

    • maybe borrowers will never repay all the debt at the end, but surely they will be left with nothing and get sentenced to decade of being bank slaves giving away everything they earn to banks
      “Look at the size of the debt!” is maybe the yesterdays thinking but thinking that bankruptcy slavery is not an option is as well

    • If that was the case you wouldn’t be in the loan issuing business.
      I know Danish banks are giving it the old college try but I think we will find out soon that they will be the next basketcase example

  6. What a crock of s#%t. After putting our house on the market last Friday and 5 offers in 3 days after listing itand over our asking price I dont know how people are doing it.

    • I’d be delighted. Take it off the market and put it back on in a few months time – you’ll be up another $20 or $30k!

      That or the world will be plunged into Corona recession and you’ll be lucky to get half your recent best offer. 😉

  7. wait wait
    22-25% of median (before tax) household income in Sydney is $30k (high end estimate) and that can service debt of $530,000 (3% on 25 years).
    is a mean median house price in Sydney $660k or Kouk is a big liar …
    median house is almost twice as much so median income family needs 50% of pre-tax income (70% of disposable) to service a loan for a median house after saving 20% of income for 15 years

    • well hes probably talking about nation wide for one but still…….
      the average new mortgage for NSW is stated as 450k with the average house price at around $1m
      I just don’t get those figures.

      • A lot of formation and new mortgages outside Sydney and or at the margins and or with large cash deposits

  8. Length of the actual loan (time it takes to actually pay it off) is the big difference and is the reason why the number of people aged 55+ that still have not paid it off is at a record high.

    For 55+ morgages with $ values in real terms:
    1990 – 9.8% still had mortgage – 32k was the debt – 39k was the disposable income
    2015 – 27.5% still in debt – $185k was the debt – $87 was the disposable income

      • well they just look at repayment amount on the original issued loan amount and length.
        A better comparison would be to compare a 15 year fixed interest on both time periods.

  9. People spruiking for rate cuts and other asset boosting policies should disclose their interests.

    The most insulting part is when these wealthy grifters claim their position is all about helping the poor and keeping unemployment low, and while that’s not technically an outright lie, it’s not the truth, either.

  10. Someone please print out that 2016 MB response and staple it to Koukoulas’ forehead. Maybe then he’ll read it and it will sink in.

  11. And don’t forget that today’s “median house price” home would, location amenity and commute wise, be a piece of crap compared to its equivalent from 20 or 30 years ago.