Weekend Reading: 22-23 February 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen
Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        What about this morn, short one, rained on, but yep still smiling.
        Very nice coffee with mate at Manly on way back, talking his finances, hopefully it helped.
        What about smiling in a BMW and a bicycle or better still an MB.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Just had his 44yo birthday and has seen his co engineering business comrades only couple years older suffer heart bypasses and he himself suffering knee and joint ailments. His wife noted that a decision had to be made to hire employees as they weren’t getting ahead. Had to point out that he was too good with his hands and wouldn’t be able to look the other way when an employee wasn’t at optimal performance while he was doing the hated paperwork.
            Most of the discussion was economics which is already covered in MB.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            An interesting side note. He worked for one such comrade replacing all the rivets in the Harbour Bridge with bolts.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Said to him if he really wanted to get ahead financially he wouldn’t go on holidays every couple of weeks and consume so much alcohol . But theres more to life than saving and self denial.

          • I agree. There’s a balance that’s different for everyone.

            A good mate of mine has retired very early, wealthy, but didn’t live his youth as very well IMO. Each to their own though.

            Main thing is I guess,, know who you are so when you get to 60, 70, you have as few regrets as possible.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Exactly right Rich, each to their own and know who you are because if one tries to emulate another, and then if a loss is incurred then inconsolable grief ensues,.either way, meaning if you’re not naturally a avid saver then the hardship is remembered as opposed to the saver who liked saving anyhow , so the loss is less consequential. On the other hand a saver forced to waste money is stressed out for that duration.

  1. The apocalypse is here… Got my keys to my new gaff today. Which means the market is about to tank. The bears can thank me later. Took it for the team!

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      The missus has been looking at the mid north coast atm to escape Syd and guess what, she liked a mud brick, pre owned by a artist.
      Could be too late to realize the uptick as wants to buy something before selling which makes sense to empty ours of tons of my stuff.
      The granny flat has in it, mills, lathe, 100 ton press, big German automatic bandsaw etc etc etc

      • In this environment I’d sell before buying personally… Feels risky buying at bubble prices and then trying to sell within the next few months.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          My sentiments exactly but the missus doesn’t want to rent in the meantime as we have too much stuff, weights animals etc and she does have a point. Where ever we end up won’t be much work for me, but atm getting no work anyhow and thinking of sidelining Boom Engineering (sick of chasing unpaid invoices) Will look into becoming a tech school teacher but who knows, as on a tangent I tend to try to teach life skills as well. Also except for the crowds and traffic there still is a lot of plus’s to staying here, flat driveway, walk to Warringah Mall, walk to bus terminal/exchange, near ferries, 2mins drive to surf beach, lot of cyclist on road ( safety in numbers).
          Could all be a pipe dream as problems are not erased by escaping ( high immigration crowds) but more likely to compound.

          • Yep, it’s a hassle renting in the middle but you could always just store the stuff that’s not vital. Filling a shipping container and storing it somewhere is really pretty cheap, all things considered.

          • Yes moving is a massive hassle. Only do it if you really want to or need to downsize etc.. lots of costs too. Think carefully. 😁

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Even if I shut the business down I would still like to potter and we have 300amps to this house.
            Mitigating the heavier monetary loss of even the same % loss due to higher principal is the psychological effect of the NB tunnel due to start 2022. So would have to sell now or wait till then and not much after. Observed that with Mandrah when the new rail was announced and completed, the price skyrocketed then reality set in then plummeted

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Dominic once filled a shipping container with my weights near solid steel not much air space. Got a call from the rail terminal, ,”what the hell have you got in there we sent the big forklift to the workshop thinking mechanical failure but none so we had to special lift it.” Then when delivered (central Manly) the truck left the trailer on the street and parked. OK whilst balancing on the wheels but when unloading from the back more weight went to the jockey wheels which sank into the bitumen 250mm or more then the angle buckled the vertical beams and the whole lot came crashing down with me inside.
            Btw spellchecker stuff up at the Mall cafe ( Flower Child ) should have read Mandurah. No weekly coffee as per this morn quota satified.

          • @boomen …

            Reminds me, wistfully, of stripping freight at night in L.A. at a yard – Mfg drop off to be diverted to buyers. Anywho used to strip out of inbound and stack into destination one order at a time by hand and cart.

            Lmmao at DP gym equipment 40′ trailers, as well the old 100lbs microwave ovens and heavy water drums for hydro dams. 6 pm to 6 am if you were good, weak were sent home from about 12 midnight.

            Going to a gym …. chortle …

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            obviously you would’t have needed a gym in those days to be fit and strong. Bodybuilding on the other hand requires weights. as no matter how hard any one worked their physique was no match for someone with years of training due to isolation of muscle worked with max energy available. Occasionally one of the competitors in my comps would claim to not weight train saying it was just him, but obvious BS. Used to have brickies labourers come in exhausted from a hard days work and leave with more vigor.
            I still have those 200lb each solid one piece dumbbells as don’t want to break the set even if can’t use anymore.
            BTW a man loses his testosterone after early adulthood but if any sort of heavy weight is regularly lifted it reduces the decline.

          • Get what your saying but have to acknowledge the military experience with such.

            Then again knuckle punches to bulging show pony muscles was always a treat.

            Sorry I would put my grandfather off the farm that bailed hay into his 70s against say Arnold et al, ever see a bloke snap a head off a snake in a bale of hay with his fingers or reduce a apple to sauce with a squeeze or get ones hand caught in the corn harvester trying to clear the augurs when the snow is flying, too bring the harvest in, broken fingers and knuckles, solution was to break the ice on the horse trough and a soak then back to work …

            Some people surf and ride bikes and claim man hood … time and space is a strange thing … lmmao go to a threshers convention in say Iowa … where machines ate people in the day …

          • BoomToBustMEMBER

            Re chasing invoices, take a leaf from IT, it’s pay upfront, or take a credit card machine with you. One of my plumbing customers has the same issues with people not paying and apparently they say you can’t just leave someone with no hot water so repossessing the unpaid hot water unit is not permissible, if you have a CC machine it’s pay up front or no new hot water unit etc.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Boom to bust, thanks,
            Good at engineering distaste for office work so let the dept collector’s do what I can’t. Pruska.
            Far too soft up to a point.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Hey Skip,
            Looking for your approval on this one.
            Dropped a peice of steel on my toe about 3–4,yrs ago (Indonesian safety boots) Kept working but after 3 hrs of non stop bleeding decided to have it looked at as slippery walking around. Degloved, broken big toe and after the break bone smashed into tiny pieces. Consensus was to amputate but surgeon said there a bit of pink under so see what happens. The nail never threw back properly but have a remnant. Smashed my thumb with a sledge hammer over a year ago, same sort of scenario job had to be finished but more nail (not all) growing back this time

          • I wouldn’t associate bodybuilding with strength. Powerlifters have enormous strength but still don’t impress me. Watching a rock climber cling on with the tips of 2-3 fingers on one hand and lift their entire body weight, that is impressive.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Those rock climbers impress me as well
            To do that you need to have an ectomorph body type who have a very light weight to high power ratio.
            Beauty,(art), is in the eye of the beholder and bodybuilding is for aesthetics only where a powerlifting for power only and weightlifting incorporates technique and speed to minimize power required to lift maximum weight. Was president of ANBB which means Natural ( no steroids.) Invented Pump Aerobics in Boomas Gym 1990 but it was exactly copied by a NZ er.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Confess I cheated with the thumb and taped it back together with electrical tape to keep going. No doctor for that one, a bit funny and numb now though.

      • Mid North coast is an awesome place. We’re three hours from Sydney, close enough to stock up on bulk soy sauce and noodles when needed, but too far for the zombies to walk.
        The drought was horrible, as were the fires, but now that we’ve been flooded in twice, the grass is knee deep, the cows are fat & sassy and all is awesome again.

          • Wherrol Flat. Admittedly 3hrs from the Wahroonga end of the freeway, not from the sister-in-law’s place in Lane Cove. And also only if you pin the throttle at 7km/h over the speed limit all the way and don’t stop for anything except the traffic lights in Raymond Terrace and Taree. So maybe 4 hrs for sane people. 😉

      • We have 10 acres for sale on north coast. Better access than MNC and, I think, better water security. Bigger drive to Sydney though . In situ – fencing, bucket loads water storage plus spring fed dam / Ajax piston pump, pecans, Avos, mangos, mulberries, macas, coffee, bananas, barhee dates, tropical apples, citrus galore, passion fruit . Excellent cycling routes with 1 2km KoM 5km away plus 10km from flat Richmond river rIDE

        Cr£ploads of sheds – 4 bay lockable with 15a power on slab next to house ,4 bay lockable next to house on flat paddock for toys, horse stables, duck sheds, chook sheds. Goat fencing in place. Plenty of room for tools and toys

        You can smash a driver from the tee we built to the bottom

        Improved pastures – brangus and Angus fatten up epically

        In the drought we got to 1/2 tank on house before rains arrived so were fine

        60sqm deck with valley views, 4br solid hardwood house flood free

        NBN LTE is at 50/20 M with downloads usually 30Mbps – 1km clear line of sight to tower

        Byron 35 mins, Ballina 20, Goldie airport 1hr 10

  2. To all university students and staff. And to all self-serving VC’s


    “…it is not surprising that some young, healthy people die after contracting the virus, noting the risk of infection and even death is not zero for any demographic.”
    “All of us are at risk, and hence the superlative efforts at keeping containment in place, and keeping the virus from circulating as much as we can do,” he said.

    • From this morning’s paper, Adelaide Uni is also busting the travel ban:

      “A second Australian university is now paying Chinese students to bypass travel ban through third countries.

      On Friday, the University of Adelaide emailed its 3000 or so Chinese students caught overseas by the ban offering a “care package” worth about $5000.

      After being lobbied by the universities, the Australian government will also now allow 8000 students to enter Australia directly from China, and is considering increasing the number further.”


      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        What is the go here? Are the universities so close to financial disaster that they’re willing to risk the welfare of the entire country or is it purely greed?

        • Both. Pure greed got them to where they are now. Facing financial destruction created by greed has these people taking risks with other people’s lives. We really are a sh1t country.

        • It isn’t the universities, it is all the other parasites that feed off the students. I think accommodation and property interests may be the most vocal behind the scenes… Harry Triguboff is a major landlord for these students. He has whole towers full of them in Zealand and Pagewood. Harry will be calling Scummo daily on this matter.

        • Salvatore Babones:

          “How can it be that Hong Kong and Australian vice-chancellors have come to such radically different evaluations of their ability to safely manage coronavirus exposure? In another two words: moral hazard.

          Moral hazard is the expectation that organisations (and their leaders) will reap the rewards of their successes while others will bear the burdens of their failures. If the government lifts its travel ban and 100,000 Chinese students fly into Australia, university revenues will continue the robust growth that has propelled Australia up the international rankings.

          But if those students introduce coronavirus into the general population, Medicare — which means taxpayers — will pick up the bill. If Australian universities were required to reimburse the government for the costs of treating any coronavirus cases that could be traced back to their Chinese students, they would probably be much less eager to lift the travel ban.”


          • happy valleyMEMBER

            Or if a VC were to contract the virus, because it was made mandatory that all VCs to meet and greet returning/new students as part of the conditions for lifting the entry ban?

          • @happy valley. If these students are allowed back in and are infected there is a damn good chance that I will be infected from them. If I get infected I can assure you that if the VC isn’t also infected I will be paying his office a visit and will spread the illness through his entire office. And, if I see that prick in there at the time, I will get straight up to his face and cough all over him.

            I am majorly p1ssed about what these traitors are doing, and I am not going to just sit here and take it.

      • That 8000 numbers has disappeared from the article and replaced by 1000. It is pretty small potatoes in the scheme of things.

        • SMH is saying “up to 70,000”

          Vicki Thomson, chief executive of the Group of Eight universities, welcomed the government’s examination of ways to minimise the impact of the travel ban on universities and students.

          “We have almost 70,000 students either in China or in a third country who we want to be back on our campuses as soon as possible and we will explore all options to see what can be achieved with government support,” she said.

          This could see Qantas sending a raft of special flights to help retrieve students. A fleet of spare 747s is ready to be deployed and chief executive Alan Joyce this week said: “If there’s a need and demand for it we would certainly look at moving assets [aircraft] around to meet that.”


          • So, who’s funding this exactly? Joyce is keen for the moolah, but I presume the students will pay?

          • happy valleyMEMBER

            Alan Joyce, the VCs and Scotty from Marketing and the rest of the LNP all on the same page?

    • Concerning points for me is the time between infection and death, the latest doctor from Wuhan was diagnosed 23rd January, died two days ago, but everyone is being told to stay isolated for only 14 days!
      There is no stopping the Virus, it is obvious this can not be contained, it is already in every region, and accelerating.
      South Korea locked down, Iran no go zone, no one is going to China or rest of Asia, this is 100% economic Collapse

      • Display NameMEMBER

        See the latest footage of people being welded into their apartment complexes. The new commissar that Xu has sent to Wuhan appears to be a tad more martial.

  3. So, I’ve had two mates ring me this week asking if bitcoin is a good idea. These two are completely clueless when it comes to understanding or caring about what’s going on in the broader economy. This doesnt bode well, and is the mania on again?

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Or, you just heard a work colleague you don’t like give advice about btc to noobs over the phone where there’s a good chance one, or all of them, read weekend links. 😁

      Good show either way old chap!

  4. #BREAKING WHO chief says concerned about cases outside China with ‘no clear epidemiological link’

    WHO Tedros:

    “As I said yesterday, WHO’s key role is coordinating the global response to the epidemic, and our new special envoys will help us to do that.

    This is another step we are taking to take advantage of the window of opportunity we have to contain this outbreak.

    Once again, the measures China and other countries have taken have given us a fighting chance of containing the spread of the virus.

    We call on all countries to continue their containment measures, while preparing for community transmission if it occurs.

    We must not look back and regret that we failed to take advantage of the window of opportunity that we have now.”

    Will Scomo open the floodgates?
    Fun times!

    PS Iran has just reported the spread of the virus to ‘several cities’.

    Global border lockdown coming folks!

    Lol. look at the AllOrds!
    Look at house prices!
    Off the chart delusional.

  5. The ongoing coronavirus epidemic in China may very well end up pulling factories out of China faster than tariffs.

    If the virus lasts in China as long as its last major bout with a respiratory infection, known as SARS, then it will take until August before this is out of China’s system.

    the outbreak had made many businesses realize they had to diversify into other countries and avoid “putting all their eggs in one basket”


    China car sales tumble by 92% as coronavirus weighs on industry

    Jaguar Land Rover revealed it was currently making no sales in China.

    the company had been forced to fly parts in suitcases from China to the UK as supplies continued to dwindle.


    92 percent! Racialist towards themselves!

  6. Just looked at moves in the market
    Nit surprised to see AUD back up on a general sell off in USD
    AUD had a very quick fall from 7030 to 6595
    gold is the mover with bonds so there is still a rush to safe haven
    ASX may have had its run, it was a very quick move from 6700 to 7200, really 30% or more from lows a year or so ago
    I’m not sure what triggered the moves
    I’ll wait for DLS Monday to tell us

          • Imagine this Gav ….

            So were talking risk – right – and the difference between risk evaluation and Knightian uncertainty or Mandelbrot and Lévy distributions.

            So my reference is a Hollywood static line jump on a Saturday out of a CH-47 in Georgia, not far from Savannah, to get jump pay and log jumps for increased jump status. Anywho since it was Hollywood it was decided we would jump from 9k feet for fun, longer air time. Funny thing was the pathfinders [information] sent the bus way out from the DZ due to conditions, per drill a “live wind dummy” was first popped out to confirm [information].

            As we circled around visual contact was lost with the “live wind dummy”, due to a plethora of factors a decision was made to carry on with the jump. About 11 people jumped off the rear platform for the prop wash elevator going down static line experience at a few seconds intervals – I was last.

            Low and behold the DZ could not be seen on the horizon from 9k feet, below me as I watched the others float down in a curve all I could see is the reflection from the sun off swamp, Georgia pines, a dirt road with power lines, and and concrete emergency runway.

            At this point I could see all below making decisions and adjusting accordingly. The bloke just below me went for the runway and I followed him, considering the options. Now the tricky part about that decision was the angle of the runway, the wind, and the height of the pines. As we descended the bloke in front of me took an aggressive angel from atop the pines [tiptoeing across them] and tried a almost 90 degree turn [cross wind to runway] to descend and make a landing. The drama was this caused him to oscillate almost 45 degrees to the runway with little hang time and splat on the concrete – did not get up/

            Having seen this I took a more oblique angle and managed to both contend with the trees and decent but managed to land on the grass between the treeline and the unforgiving concrete. Did my PLF and trotted over to see if old mate was dead, screwed up or just having a nap. Funnie enough the recover truck showed up right about then with the walking dead in the back and some being given a bit of a Q&A about the date, their name, where they were at …. lmmao

            So it seems the wind dummy came down in a pine, chute got hung up, which forward momentum caused him to punch the trunk, and then released 20′ in the air – rogered … lol

            I went back up soon after that ….

            In another ripping yarn I will kill the English language with a fable about not having ones parachute harnesses tight enough and its consequences when landing in a DZ populated by fire ants, something about balls and climbing ones own rigging like a cat on a curtain.

          • Lmmao @ modeling to such human actions, by such methods, that some would understand the Lévy distribution observations pointed out by Mandelbrot and Knightian uncertainty, but some money was made regardless …

            Its Pythonic in retrospect … unwashed swimming around in their own platonic time and space reality …

          • @Sacha …

            Whats the drama, don’t understand the maths and its applicability to the event, yet your reality is constantly being determined [tm] by it.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Growth area eh?

        Is this one of those plans to stock up on supplies and sail the high seas until the wuhan flu goes away? Branson’s Ark?

        Betcha Prince Andr3w gets a stateroom.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      My guess is that was just the Brainard speech calling for higher inflation and capping rates in the next downturn, or maybe Lloyd Blankfein coming out to slag the (remote) prospect of Bernie Sanders successfully running against Trump in the US Presidentials

      • Guna

        Yesterday when we were testing 6590 AUD
        I just did an internet search to see what news articles were saying re AUD
        SMH ABC etc are saying AUD on so many year lows and has further to fall, my first thoughts were this is short term low
        Maybe bounce to 6660/90
        Think for AUD lower

        We need

        Higher DXY through 100 101/103 level
        We need a nice correction in Dow say 5/10% which is not unreasonable
        RBA to cut 25 bp as world growth continues to crater especially Asia and Australia showing a negative 1 Q growth etc

        Think that’s puts us at low 60s (62/64) type level

        Think we are headed but we may get a little bounce first

        Let’s see

        • My accountant told me last month that people in power want AUD exactly there; 62-64. He is rubbing shoulders with those people.

      • No chance Dom
        Europe was already in recession late 2019.
        He might think it’s nonsense but China is a big customer of Europe, especially Germany
        No way, people are frightened and won’t rush back to 2019 mentality
        This will drag on
        There is a lag effect because travel plans as an example get planned now for next 6 months and a huge majority have pulled the pin, I’d say any recovery will be well into next year 2021

      • Wow, his ‘base case’ is for the most optimistic possible outcome. How’s that for risk management?

        • I know, right. That guy made it to the position of Chief Economist at the second most important central bank on the planet.

          What are they smoking over there?

          • Dude AGW and water scarcity make a little virus look benign, day traders are way over the cliff and in denial.

          • Skip, I’m not sure any of your points are relevant to the topic. I said: this economist is an idiot (if it needed saying at all).

            If you’re concerned that the market is not reacting appropriately to any of the crises now unfolding before us then don’t mention day traders – what do they have to do with it? It’s the bankers, the mutual funds and the hedge funds that are all in right now. Your mom n pop trading wannabes are irrelevant.

            AGW is also irrelevant, because if there’s an iota of substance to the claims then there’s sweet FA we can do about it now. Best off spending all you have and borrowing like you’ll never repay a cent. Once the apocalypse arrives your savings won’t mean jack.

          • A. day traders both provide churn and velocity based on emotions, primary shorts for a big payday and call it providing liquidity to the market.

            B. its nothing to do with banks or any of the other under the bed rubbish, its contracts, hence why Wall St. would have an epic melt down if say Sanders won and put Warren as head of Treasury.

          • A. previously non institutional investors held long for retirement … sorta a lotto.

            B. contracts dictate credit.

          • No, skip, I worked many years on the trading floor. Day traders trade less (collectively) in a day than I personally would. They are irrelevant.

          • No, skip, I worked many years on the trading floor. Day traders trade less (collectively) in a day than I personally would. They are irrelevant.

          • Tell that to the algos… were talking quint level shit to nudge infinitesimal numerology to a few financial microns for daily flows, ffs and then libor …

            Why do you think they were let in … yet you think taxes pay for government expenditure.

            Hard to square if you know what I mean.

          • Dom, remember Skip thinks the GFC was caused by the shorters.

            A bit like blaming the police for an upsurge in crime because they noticed it …!

          • The GFC was caused firstly by underwriting standards and predatory loans, of it self, that would have been a mild recession not unlike the S&L debacle. So yes the naked and mercenary shorts for a quick massive pay day created its own liquidity event, acerbated by modern markets being tightly coupled.

            Lest we forget Bush Jr was informed by the FBI on all the mortgage origination fraud, but was advised that a war was on and it could not be addressed without consequences.

            This is acerbated by wonky risk models and the abuse of them by those that made profit from those actions.

            But some memory’s are short and forget Born and the Chicago boys antics …

            Police providing liquidity to the market is a neoliberal superlative.

          • Skip, I’m really sorry. Take it from someone who’s worked in markets before. Shorts are a good thing – they ensure liquidity down the line by virtue of having two opposing positions open at the same time i.e. there are both buyers and sellers ready trade.

            Liquidity issues occur when everyone and their dog are the same side of the boat i.e. all long. When they all want to sell, who will buy what they are trying to sell? The banks won’t touch it. If hedge and mutual funds managers don’t have healthy cash balances they can’t buy either. And if there are no shorts in the market – they have nothing to cover (shorts are natural buyers).

            People who rail against short sellers have NO idea how this all works. None. Sorry, that’s the truth.

  7. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Scummo needs to read this.

    “The first case is a man, 38, who is believed to have got the virus after dining with a friend who had come back from China.
    The other two initially infected people are the 38-year-old’s wife, a pregnant teacher on maternity leave, who has also been admitted to the Codogno hospital, and a third person who went to hospital suffering symptoms of pneumonia after having had contact with the 38-year-old.
    The teacher had not been in contact with children.
    The 38-year-old man has been admitted to the intensive care ward of a hospital at Codogno near Lodi.
    The town has closed schools, bars, eateries, discos, dancehalls, gambling arcades and sporting facilities as a precaution at least until Sunday.
    The man was said to be in a serious condition, with respiratory insufficiency – but Galera said his condition had “improved slightly” since Thursday night, when he was admitted.
    The man went to the emergency room of the hospital on Thursday.
    Police have reconstructed his movements over the last four days, when he went running and to work, played football and took part in three dinners.”


    His response will be for all Australians to stay at home so Chinamen can go about their day without infecting everyone.

  8. China PlateMEMBER

    Hey ermo you can have your beans
    I’m stocking up on popcorn
    Can you catch this thing from popping corn

    • These criminal cvnts must be onto something that’s going to impact their profits otherwise they wouldn’t give a fvck.

    • Narapoia451MEMBER

      Clearly they are part of the biggest and most effective conspiracy of all times involving pretty much every climate scientist and scientific organisation in the world.

      What are their motives for joining the conspiracy?

  9. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Do Australians not eat lobster? Are our lobsters aware they’re for export only?


    I went to the Yarmouth Lobster Festival in Nova Scotia many years ago. Collected many a lobster bib that week. Those locally caught lobsters seemed happy to be eaten close to where they were caught. Now I’ve thought about it for a bit I’m thinking Australian lobsters might be quite un-Australian if they’re unwilling to be eaten here.

    • The lobsters are just selling themselves to the Chinese. When you think about it some more, you’ll realise that is in fact very Australian.

        • Dom put aside house price forecasts, ASX dow forecasts.
          The global economy is turning down very very hard, much harder than is really being forecast. Other than maybe USA, ASIA N and SE ASIA and Europe etc will be in full blown recession next 2/3 months
          US growth slower
          Nothing is going to turn this around quickly, even if growth slows in CV, economies won’t go back to 19 growth very the foreseeable future
          AUSTn economy is going to be brutalised over next 6 months

          • Perhaps, this is the Chinese plot to counter Putin who is backing Trump. Full blown recessions in the next several months will blow away Trump’s economy narrative.

          • Darth
            I said on this site around mid last year that the global economy was heading down very hard into recession Q2 2020.
            It was always coming I just didn’t know what would trigger it

          • Snich
            You’re preaching to the converted. The economy was already toward recession and this corona sh1t could be the knock-out blow.

            We’ll know soon enough.

          • The US is and always has been the leading Economy globally, they crushed Russia, they smashed japan, and now they have crashed China, I wouldn’t be surprised if they created the virus, it does appear to target Asians (no racist undertones)

    • Thanks to our amazing economic model, Australians no longer eat the good parts of beef or lamb either.

      We’re so much better off than Eastern Europe. Those fools don’t even export every decent foodstuff to China.

      I hope every crayfish exporter goes bust. They do nothing but harm for this country.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Well, if the lobsters refuse to be eaten by us and the Chinamen can’t take them then WHAT IS THE POINT OF A LOBSTER?

        Burn ’em.

      • I felt vindicated by that article.

        Mrs PFH007 was giving me a hard time for wearing old faded clothes and never throwing them out (into the charity rag collection bins). I resorted to a “think of the environment” line of argument.

        That article is now in an inbox.

      • Everyone’s at it: strayan wine manufacturers dump large quantities of their production abroad (UK and US in particular) in order to protect prices here i.e. we pay much more here for mainstream wine brands than do the good folk in those other markets.

        European vehicle manufacturers keep production lines going at full pelt and any unsold vehicles get shipped off to huge auto graveyards where they’ll either eventually be scrapped or stripped for parts, rather than dumped into the open market.

        The iniquity of the consumption age write large.

    • Locals don’t pay $100 a kilo, and Westerners prefer smaller lobster wheras the Chinese believes bigger is better.

    • innocent bystander


      The fishermen and women need to be selling to the processors at about $80 to $85 a kilo to make a profit, but because the processors’ tanks are still full, no-one is buying at that price.

      • Yep, I thought that sound in my ears was tinnitus – but it’s actually the local lobster population cheering.

  10. reusachtigeMEMBER

    China and Iran (and no doubt North Korea if we could hear about it) being destroyed by a mysterious virus… Hmmmm…

    • Locus of ControlMEMBER

      Well, when you put it like that…

      I’m not buying into any conspiracies (yet), but I am genuinely curious about how this virus made it into Iran.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Iran is well within the Chinese sphere of influence. China gets oil from Iran, Iran gets project work and developmental infrastructure, plenty of Chinese engineers and laborers. That there aren’t reports of outbreaks in similar Chinese influenced nations in Africa is either a worry or another sign that African racial population groups, aren’t as susceptible.

        • +1 to all that. Iran’s health system is (at least) better than Africa’s, so they would likely pick up the evidence sooner too.

    • If you needed to make a quick getaway through hordes of infected, the cybertruck would be my choice of vehicle. Plenty of sharp edges.

  11. CORONAVIRUS … some further early disruption costs … airlines and shipping …

    Coronavirus flight cancellations top 200,000, sending jet fuel prices to more than 2-year lows … CNBC


    Global shipping holds its breath as the coronavirus continues to spread … Hellenic Shipping News


  12. good interview with Kevin Rudd on Friendly Jordies.
    Where he confirms what everyone knows but aren’t allowed to say.
    Journalism got Morrison elected. Journalism runs politics in this country. .

    • Kevin Rudd.

      HIGHEST AUSTRALIAN IMMIGRATION PM IN HISTORY. Opened existing property to foreign buyers. Lost control of b&&ders. Wrecked the Labor party. Gave us LNP for decades.

      Don’t trust a single thing he says.

      • I think he was telling the truth when he campaigned as an “economic conservative”.

        By conservative I mean a subscriber to the “big lever pulling“ school of economic management. That has been orthodox for both sides of politics since WW2.

          • He wasn’t all bad (though was mostly bad). The mining tax was a good idea. At least with Rudd we didn’t have to have nearly every single aspect of his unpopularity blamed on “misogyny” (which appeared to be the case with Gillard).

          • Davey

            Couldn’t stand Gillard.

            Yes the mining tax was great. Trouble is hed already blown it with the public and couldn’t hold off the media assault.

          • Rich4: part of the problem was that he was too honest “I’m a fan of bit Australia”? Others have a more sneaky approach (Howard, Gillard, etc) where they pretend they are anti large migration while in actual fact being all for it. Ditto the great Jacinda in NZ.

          • True, but any pro immigration Labor politician certainly isn’t there for the plebs.

            It completely defies who and what they’re supposed to be.

            They all have to go, pretty much for this exact reason. They’re dishonest, and hurting the very people they want to vote for them.

          • Rich4: Given that corporate political donations flow to both of the 2 major political parties, I’ve afraid that the plebs will seldom come first. You might expect more from ALP in this respect, but it ain’t gonna happen.

          • Davey

            Labor are now in catch 22.

            They need money from donations to get elected. No one’s going to vote for them while being big Australia.

      • Tripled FHOG to put a rocket up house prices.

        Was it also KRUDD that relaxed the lending rules to SMSF so that they could buy property?

      • Lmmao at all above considering all that neoliberalism had wrought before him and then get the knife in the back by the Australian equivalent of Hillary Clinton ….

        • Rudd got the knife because he was the absolute worst thing to happen to Australia for decades. Until Gillard 2, that is.

      • But, of course. What is the progressive agenda if not the enforced ‘improvement’ of the world by various coercive means, including legislation. ‘Improvement’ under their definition.

        Like all authoritarian regimes progressives are keen to instruct others ‘what’ to think but recognise the danger in people learning ‘how’ to think. Progressive utopia is just around the corner if only they can win the battle to mould all citizens into ‘right thinking’ people.

  13. https://au.lifestyle.yahoo.com/clementine-ford-hannah-clarke-brisbane-car-burning-044540691.html?guccounter=1

    ‘I wish he could be a living reminder to us all of the pain and destruction wrought by men against women and their children, fostered and inculcated by a society that refuses to properly address sexism, misogyny and entitlement. ‘

    Clementine Ford -> leftists, when exploiting tragedy for social status becomes a way of life.

    I vote we rebrand from calling it virtue signalling to virtue snivelling.

    • I agree with the above that the article is justified, but there is a bit of a double standard here. The reporting in this article of a mother who killed three of her children by driving them into a lake is very much sympathetic to the plight of the woman and her mental issues. I’m certain that Clementine didn’t write anything about the evils of the mother in this case. I think if we call this bloke evil, which he was, then it must be applied to all killers of their own family, regardless of gender, race, etc. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/sentence-cut-for-mum-who-killed-three-of-her-kids-by-driving-into-lake-20180816-p4zxsb.html

    • I have some sympathy here. A while back, a young comedian, Eurydice Dixon, was brutally raped and murdered by some psycho. Interestingly, a protest was held shortly afterwards to protest male violence against women. Times have changed quiet markedly. When a man murders and/or rapes a women these days it’s not because he’s a bad egg / mentally deficient / psychotic / etc, he’s motivated by misogyny apparently. The theory presumably follows that when misogynistic attitudes have been eradicated altogether, we’ll rarely see a crime of this kind again.

      I’m going to take the other side of that and will raise the stakes by suggesting we may see more of it as the push against ‘issues’ like ‘toxic masculinity’ intensifies. There’s a better than even chance that the increasing emasculation of men is going to have a detrimental impact on males – especially in Western countries where this movement is most prominent. Their traditional role as hunter gatherer is being forcefully withdrawn and replaced by not-a-lot of any substance.

    • You can already derive that from the stats. Around 5% needing access to ICU with around half of those dying.

      Bearing in mind a further 10% that have complications without requiring access to ICU. The outstanding question is what does the overall death rate look like when there is no more medicine and hospital care available?

      • I suspect we are already seeing some of that in wuhan. Totally overwhelmed medical system , no nursing care pushes death rate up.

  14. Can someone describe (or link) in simple terms for me what happens from here when inflation goes up substantially and a) interest rates are raised to match or b) interest rates are kept low? Gracias!

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      If the thing that is never going to happen again happens and a) also happens… then just pretend it is 1979 again… that should answer that bit.

      If b) happens instead, banks will still raise rates, more slowly. And no one has any f’ing clue what else will happen as this scenario has never happened before. Closest I can think of is stagflation (in NZ) in the 80s. Anyone who tells you they know what will happen in this scenario is lying. Or a dumbass. Or a lying dumbass.

      But house prices will be fine. Just keep voting LNP. 😁

          • Talk about Brazil!
            Who cares about hyperinflation, what about that recent bout of hyperflatulation happening there. If you don’t believe me, they have made some movies about it (I heard), documenting this unfolding disaster in every detail. Well, I can tell you it is scary: after listening to some completely independent scientists, that are not milking government grants or some such, they all agree: due to the additional methane gas emitted it could very well take a whole year off of the 12 years we have left.
            Just think of the children!

    • Inflation won’t go up because if it does then you just look through it. In both situations the answer is lower teh rates.


    White House slams big cities on housing, sees GDP growth below 2.5 percent … Zachary Warmbrodt … Politico


    The Trump administration on Thursday warned that affordable housing constraints are a potential threat to U.S. economic growth, blasting New York and 10 other metropolitan areas for excessive regulations that are driving up costs and fueling homelessness. … read more via hyperlink above …
    The White House Reports (pdf)


  16. boomengineeringMEMBER

    This unique 3 acre property is a rare gem that must be seen to be appreciated. Home to one of our best local builders and his artist wife, who has taken a traditional mud brick home and recreated it into a modern rustic masterpiece. Some features of the property deserve to be displayed at the Louvre in Paris, from Encaustic Tiles at the homes entry, to a tree trunk in the heart of the house, to a rare Australian Red Cedar bench …. this could be THE ONE you have been searching for.

    • Mitchell’s Island is a lovely spot. Better soil and climate than Wherrol Flat and on one of the most beautiful rivers in the country to boot. Go for it.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Thanks LeMon3, Will tell the missus, it’s her baby.
        What about mozzies ?, my nemesis.

        • Where there’s rain, there’s mossies… It’s been a while since I’ve been around the island on a boat, but from memory, there’s bugger all mangrove left, so they shouldn’t be any worse than most other places – unlike the bowlo at Hexam, the Manning Point club does *not* have a giant mosquito as its logo…

  17. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Scummo has folded on Chinamen students. High school students actually. They’re in. Can only assume uni flu carriers will be next

  18. Australia has officially jumped the shark. Just announced opening up schools to coronavirus with open arms.

    The Government has announced strict exemptions allowing Chinese high-school students caught up in the coronavirus travel ban to return to Australia.

    • I hope Greg Hunt gets infected and dies. But that’s ok, the virus is still contained and growing slowly.

    • Mr karnt is just as susceptible to this virus as I or any other Australian is. Let him open the border, is he prepared cos I am. A virus does not discriminate and this one looks to be very difficult or near impossible to hide from. All it takes is for a coughing tourist visitor to sneeze near the air recirculation duct on a parliament house tour and bingo this thing is airborne. These politicians have not cared about the ramifications of their actions for years, well now they might sit up and take notice for once.

    • Slowing exponentially.

      The combination of yellow vests and masks will become the fashion trend for 2020 .

    • When you order food delivery in Shanghai, there is a sticker on it indicating :

      The name and body temperature of the cook
      The name and body temperature of the waiter
      The name and body temperature of the delivery man

      The disease is contained in China only due to draconian measures. Do you think your local restaurant will do that for Uber Eat?

  20. The travel bans are a sham anyhow. I have it from a reliable source that the unis have been exploiting the $1500 backdoor into Oz loophole for a while now. It’s just that it only recently made the mainstream press, as is typical.

    One QLD uni has been sacking lower paid staff (no VCs or Subject heads of course), and paying other staff to actively facilitate this loophole – to work with the foreign students to make it happen. I expect other unis are doing similar.

    Additionally, there has been a huge increase in the numbers of prospective students from you know where urgently seeking to get out of there and into here.

    This could turn out to be the biggest boost to our unis’ business plan of choice in ages.

    And you don’t seriously think they’re just coming for the high quality education, do you….?

    • It’s bizarre self-defeating behaviour for sure. This is bound to destroy any remaining trust that even the rusted-on types had in ScoMo.

      The international education lobby is evidently more powerful than I realised.

    • It’s a joke. It’s the starter before the main course of uni students.
      The medical community still don’t know enough and yet have decided to open up. If the coronavirus infection in Aus start increasing at a rate of knots then the govt is going to get plenty of heat for it. If a few dozen deaths Scomo and his fellow chumps will wear that into the next election.

      • It’s ok – Hunt said the infection was contained. Never mind the fact that Japan and South Korea have experienced a rapid increase in infections over the last several days. Surely nothing like that could happen in Australia. Lucky country exceptionalism and all that.

      • happy valleyMEMBER

        Water off a marketer’s back. Golden rule – just keep trotting out that everything is Labor’s fault and the great unwashed will fall for it – hook, line and sinker.

  21. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/theyre-traumatized-governments-ignore-plight-foreign-students-trapped-wuhan
    Having been a foreign student twice in China I seriously emphathise with these young adults. They will be going through hell and they are grist for the game of geopolitics. Poor kids.

    All I can deduce from this is that we are not yet completely powerless in our relationship with China as we got our students, and other citizens out of Wuhan.

    However I do wonder what will happen when the virus is contained in China (cos it almost is, really and truly) and shtf here, which is guaranteed. Will China be wanting to evac it’s students home? If they need to get treated here will it be covered on their health insurance? And how will the poor darlings deal with being in an epidemic situation in a country they are largely unfamiliar with. Living in a foreign country when it is going through convulsions is not a pleasant experience.

    • I can understand foreign students in China being a little upset but I definitely can’t understand Chinese student wanting to get out here being upset. It’s a little inconvenience, that’s all. A couple of months’ worth of missed lectures. Big fckn deal

  22. I hope this wakes up whoever is still so ignorant as to believe that this government gives two sh!ts for the lives and interests of actual Australians. But those who still think that by now are probably beyond help.

    • Just watched the WHO Directors live update in full.
      He is again stressing the urgency of the matter. For the world not to let its guard down. Sounded quite worried. COVID spread to Iran and Italy. Fears for Africa. What happens when SHTF in India? Indonesia?

      Vested interests in Straya tho, no wanting to give up the $.

      Scummo Govt obliging.

  23. Saw a couple of presso’s during the week. ScoFlu’s looking disheveled, ageing badly, permantly shouts and scowls and acts the arrogant cvnt that he is.

      • Sydney could get nuked by the Dumb Thumb of Trump while Scotty from Marketing is holidaying at Fiji
        and The Daily Telegraph will print in 144pt headlines “It’s Albo’s fault, and we all nod “yes!”.

      • Yep, in the last 48hrs this crisis has cranked up several notches — the timing is impeccable. Scrotie will blame ‘expert advice’, no doubt. Honestly, he cannot survive this following on the heels of the bushfire debacle.

        That said, I suspect Boomers still love the guy. I was casually saying what a miserable failure Scotty was as leader and mother in law chimes in with: I actually quite like ScoMo. I got up and left the house before I did anything I’d regret. Some of these oldies are either thick as 2 short planks or they’re blinded by franking credits.

    • When, hopefully, he gets thrown out on his @ss, he still won’t have learned anything. The dude is just braindead, the epitome of the modern puppet politician with no ideas or opinions of his own. If our parties weren’t such closed shops, he would definitely get couped by a Trump-type.

  24. Lmmao at libertarians losing the plot over a “Natural” fact of life screwing with goats promise of freedom and liberty … its just so antiquarian in the light of their first son, no not that one the real one, and his legacy as the only survivor after the big war he promoted.

    The only reason we know about this was he was spared after prophesying about his victors superiority in perpetuity and wrote a book.

    A small mindless virus can undue everything they hold dear … soft C*vnts ….

    • Skip, you’d right at home living in North Korea — you hate personal freedom that much. There’s probably a medical term for it — a variation on agoraphobia.

      • Your bias filters are set to maximum all the time due to your wonky ideological beliefs.

        You have rights and not freedoms, I forward the policies advocated by Sanders et al and not the corporatist memes about freedom and liberty.

        • I’m not interested in rights – what right does another human being have to bestow certain favours on me? They don’t. Nobody owns me. I already feel affronted enough that the Govt taxes me and wastes my money on pork, and white elephants and inefficiently run administrative functions. Anyone who impinges upon my freedom will find themselves in a hospital – or morgue – soon enough.

          • Who enforces these freedoms you think you have – goat?

            You don’t like the way government is run, consider the dominate mindset over the decades – see Powell memo et al.

          • Skip, freedom actually comes from nobody enforcing them. Freedom comes from everybody minding their own fcking business and getting on with their lives. The Govt’s job is to protect private property rights, defend the borders from invaders and to punish those who would inflict (bodily) harm on citizens and their property. That’s it.

  25. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I thought all of youse crashniks would be celebrating the opening up of our borders to sick educational vibrants especially the preppers who need to recover from their extreme embarrassments. It pretty much guarantees your crash via mass death and destruction. If you survive you will be sitting pretty. I’ll survive because I am of superior genetics and know a lot of nurses very well. And I’ll be buying up well situated investment properties on the cheap as soon as they become vacated from death.

    • Death rate of male is higher than female, so polygamy will be legalized to deal with the lack of husbands.

      • “We’ll need an army of super-virile men scoring round the clock! I’ll do my part. Kif, clear my schedule.”

  26. Xi Jinping himself has said the turing point of #China’s #coronavirus outbreak has not come yet and the situation in #Hubei province, the epicenter of the epidemic, remained severe and complex, according to a politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping on Friday.

    And Fvkwit Scummo says all is good to relax the travel ban????

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Exhume John Curtin and prop him up in the Prime minister’s office …that’s what straya might need right now…….

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        You know, Curtin used to disappear occasionally for a couple of days for a big drink. Never when there was work to do though, only after he had things sorted. Even then he left a bloke called Chifley in charge.

        Just compare that to recent history. We’ve fallen so far.

        • TailorTrashMEMBER

          “Never trust a man who doesn’t drink “

          Winston Churchill

          “Well, I wish some of you would tell me the brand of whiskey that Grant drinks. I would like to send a barrel of it to my other generals.”

          Abraham Lincoln

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            That’s because alcohol reveals the true person.
            This is why you can never trust somebody who doesn’t drink,… They clearly have something to hide

        • Hi Mining B and ref: Prime Minister who drinks
          Drunks occasionally make fools of themselves, but they don’t tell lies

    • It’s mostly fake, but not unpleasant if you like a chi-chi experience with boomers and Xinese tourists.

      • Another one of the dreaded side-effects of China ‘opening up’ is the sheer volume of tourists over-running all the higher profile tourist sights globally — including all the fake ones. The Japanese invasion back in the ’80s was bad enough but this has cranked things up to 11.

        At risk of sounding like a stuck record – we need this pandemic to go hog wild through the global population, followed by a deep recession / depression. More assets / resources shared between less people equals a better standard of living — unless you’re Harry the Grub, of course, who believes the opposite.

  27. Wow Italy is looking bad
    #coronavirus Italy has closed down 10 towns after 14 new cases are detected – 5 doctors infected, 50,000 told to stay at home all schools closed.

    That, ladies and gentlemen is coming our way…

  28. ANZ now advertising 2.68% P&I for PPOR fixed for two years

    When is MB going to admit that interest rates are never going to rise in australia, regardless of how bad the economy gets and how low the dollar goes?

    I really want to pay for a subscription because I love what they do to promote political awareness, but the absolute blind stubborness is getting embarassing

    Interest rates will be zero or negative in the next few years, you can book it

    Asset prices to the moon

    Buy the most expensive house that you can get your hands on

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Don’t tempt me my wife has found the perfect house for the fam and it’s, guess, yep fkn expensive

    • Even if interest rates are zero or negative, until you can get the mortgage for 60 years with no money down, there’s a serious ceiling on how much people can possibly pay for a property and that probably isn’t that much higher than the price of the most expensive property you can buy today.

      • you honestly don’t think thats going to happen?

        When it has happened in every other western country that has reached peak debt before us?

        Come on, mate.

        The definition of insanity

        • We already have more debt than any other Western country except Switzerland.

          I know that there are zero rate mortgages in Europe, but their property prices are still much lower than ours. I haven’t heard of 60 year mortgages that will allow people to pay the principle on their wages which never ever rise (other than briefly during Japan’s property bubble).

          • who needs to pay the principle?
            Their kids will worry about that

            Here is what you said originally: “until you can get the mortgage for 60 years with no money down, there’s a serious ceiling on how much people can possibly pay for a property ”

            The stated conditions are going to happen, you can count it

            Now, when interest rates are 0 or negative, AHPRA changes the rules to allow 0 down, interest only, 60 year (or more duration)
            what will happen to prices?

            where is all the money going to go that has already been produced by loan creation?

          • Call me naive (and I know you will) but I actually don’t believe we’re going to see zero-down or 60 year mortgages. The bubble will collapse before we get to that stage. Australia will shortly be in recession from the coronavirus and I don’t believe we can pump enough immigrants in to save ourselves from that fate.

            Zero interest mortgages, sure, it could happen. But the Aussie dollar will probably be 50c or less to the USD at that point.

            I personally think that the proliferation of extreme pessimist views which led people to actually think property prices will always go up no matter what, are indicative that this thing is nearing its end.

          • Why do you think its going to happen now? and not at any time in the last 10 years?

            Every time its the same

          • Because we didn’t have coronavirus in the last 10 years. I seriously don’t see how we can avoid a recession at this point. And prices have almost never been as high as they are now. Everything has become much more extreme since the GFC and believing that means it can become more extreme forever is either extremely bullish or extremely pessimistic, and I’m neither.

          • $1m loan. Minimum repayment $29.5k a year 30 year loan.

            $1m loan. Minimum repayment $29k a year 60 year loan.

            Near zero advantage.

          • The “advantage” is that with a 60 year term you can borrow substantially more with very little increase in payment.

        • When will we see 60 year mortgages and 0% SVR do you think? What do you expect the median Sydney house price to be at that time? What will AUDUSD be?

      • @Invisible
        Even if that does end up being the case, the size of the property people can buy can continue to shrink. Instead of selling the plebs a 4 bedroom house on 500 sqm, they’ll sell them a cramped 3 bedroom townhouse on 250 sqm at the same price.

        And they can always resort to multi generation mortgages like in Sweden, Japan and some areas in the US.

    • Why aren’t interest rates affecting house prices the same way globally?

      At least with stocks, low interest rates significantly increase their value.

    • Your logic is not without merit, however, there are a number of risks to consider:
      – this pandemic could devastate the global economy. I don’t care how low rates get – if unemployment is 12 or 15% (or worse), the property market gets hosed. Unemployed people with IPs will be kicking them out like rotten fruit in 40 degree heat. And many with OO props may have no choice but to do the same.
      – this global money printing circus that has been going on for so long will eventually produce inflation that cannot be ignored and as supply chains break down because of the virus, this only enhances the prospect i.e. it could easily happen fairly soon. Once inflation arrives the scope to cut rates disappears and the pressure to raise becomes acute. But as you allude, they are trapped between a rock and a hard place because mortgage stress is already high (and getting higher) so raising rates would cause that to snowball.

      A total reset was always on the cards but this virus may well may well have brought forward that day by a few years.

      • – this pandemic could devastate the global economy. I don’t care how low rates get – if unemployment is 12 or 15% (or worse), the property market gets hosed. Unemployed people with IPs will be kicking them out like rotten fruit in 40 degree heat. And many with OO props may have no choice but to do the same.”

        Just in time, the coalition will embrace MMT
        This simply isn’t the 80s or 90s anymore.
        Central banks have their mandate from the government. Governments have their mandate from big business and the wealthy

        – this global money printing circus that has been going on for so long will eventually produce inflation that cannot be ignored and as supply chains break down because of the virus, this only enhances the prospect i.e. it could easily happen fairly soon.

        How many false dawns have we had? The hong kong protests, the US “trade war”, debt defaults etc etc.
        It’s all hype to get suckers to sell
        It will blow over like everything else
        Even if 20% of the earth’s population is infected. It only has a mortality rate of 1-2%.
        That means 24 million dead . Even if we assume the mortality rate is undereported and its actually 10%, that’s 120 million dead- but its all elderly who don’t work anyway. It will actually be great for china who have major demographic problems
        That isn’t going to make a dent

        “Once inflation arrives the scope to cut rates disappears and the pressure to raise becomes acute. But as you allude, they are trapped between a rock and a hard place because mortgage stress is already high (and getting higher) so raising rates would cause that to snowball.”

        I think we can both agree, the government simply will not allow a significant fall in asset prices
        The banks would become insolvent, and their sponsors will lose relative wealth

        There is no inflation – technology and globalisation have made sure of it
        Technology obviously isn’t going anywhere.
        You may say globalisation will reverse, but I don’t ever see it happening : the personal interests of the elite are always going to trump nationalism and the interests of workers.
        They will pay lip service like trump and bojo or the LNP, but ultimately nothing will change
        You’ve already seen scummo willing to infect high school kids to make sure the gates stay open

        • The government can only bring on hyperinflation to save property prices — and prices will still go down in real terms. There’s simply only so much they can actually do even when they start doing crazy things. Don’t buy into this central bank omnipotence narrative, it’s not true. There are plenty of countries that failed in the past despite doing all they could to keep the wheels turning.

          And remember that the AUD is not an important currency on the world stage. The market is not going to tolerate the same level of money printing that USD, EUR and JPY have gotten away with in our case, before the thing becomes toilet paper. We’ve already lost like 40% of our value in a couple of years.

          • what makes you say that central banks are not omnipotent?

            What have we seen in the last 12 years to show that they aren’t?

            The only thing that might topple the whole thing is inflation, but as I say there’s just no chance of that happening with technology and globalisation in force

            Even if coronavirus takes off globally it will be deflationary, as people stop going out to restaurants, shops, travelling and the old people (who consume far more than they produce) all die

          • The fact that the central banks have had to constantly cut interest rates and are still presiding over economies teetering on the brink of recession? Do you even read Macrobusiness? Central banks have achieved absolutely zilch since 2009 save for inflating new asset bubbles, and I can’t see any reason to believe they’ll be able to do that single supposedly unintended consequence forever.

          • I imagine it was, but I think they also want to kick economies back into gear. Pre-GFC, they were indeed raising interest rates regularly, in 2018 we saw a few rate hikes as well, we saw the Federal Reserve cancel QE, so they’re not 100% in a thrall to pumping asset prices. Elites want economic growth, just at no cost whatsoever to themselves. That’s a nearly impossible desire. But as we see in China, it can be done to some extent. This is something that Western central banks have failed to achieve.

          • Well said, IM. These perpetual rounds of money printing are pushing on a string. All they do is provide ever larger amounts of liquidity without really addressing solvency issues and there is a rather large social cost i.e. wealth inequality which results from large scale money printing. One of the problems with money printing arises from the absence of major deleterious effects for long periods — not obvious on the surface at least. The damage is being done beneath the surface though and one day it will appear, quite suddenly, in the form of high inflation. If you look at all high inflation episodes in history, they start very mildly and stay that way for a long while and then suddenly go exponential. There really is not a lot of time to prepare once it gets going.

            Coming, points to globalisation and technological advances as being deflationary which they have been, but technological advances are actually slowing down greatly — as pointed out by a prominent billionaire whose name will come to me shortly — and it’s the rate of change that matters to inflation (not the advances that have been made in the past) because productivity gains slow right down. Equally globalisation is toast, not matter what the elites want. The Chinese have had their day in the sun and now they have to close up shop and deal with their monster debt-berg which will necessarily require stringent capital controls and years of economic retrenchment — not to mention a wholesale restructuring of a very insolvent financial system. Equally, the reliability of global supply chains has been (is being) tested and firms will be forced to re-structure / re-arrange these, with some European and US firms forced to deal with suppliers locally. Either way, the deflationary effects of globalisation look to plateauing or going into reverse.

  29. (URGENT) S. Korea reports 87 more cases of new coronavirus, total soars to 433
    South Korea is looking really bad…
    Note – South Korea didn’t implement a China travel ban.

    • South Korea only banned Chinese tourists from Hubei province. Cause and effect. Watch and learn Australia. Oh wait, genius Hunt has just opened the floodgate for Chinese students outside of Hubei. Watch and sob Australia.

      • That khunt has already opened the borders a few days ago I reckon. I was in the city today and it was absolutely full of certain tourists, you can tell they are not locals they stand out. I cannot believe it, how will the economy go when they start closing schools and unis etc? Or they just won’t cos they won’t test anyone. Absolutely unbelievable the govt of this country.

      • I caught a glimpse of the terrible 7News Perth bulletin earlier this evening. The story was on a corona patient being transported back to WA. From what I could tell, the patient and the people with her were only wearing surgical masks and minimal protective equipment. It was certainly nothing like the outfits worn by medical staff in Wuhan.

        I have little faith that our authorities will be able to stop a ScoVid-19 breakout.

  30. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/relaxation-of-travel-ban-looms-for-students-following-official-health-advice-20200221-p5436f.html

    “The travel ban has been extended for another week but federal and state chief health and medical officers have advised “there is a case for government to consider … a temporary relaxation of the travel restrictions to allow entry to a larger number of tertiary students” after February 29 if coronavirus cases in China do not blow out.
    The officers cautioned that any easing of restrictions should be subject to cases levelling off in provinces outside Hubei, where the outbreak began. The advice stated there would still be a low risk of importing cases to Australia if the current characteristics of the virus were maintained.”
    “The flow of students would likely be slow, given the current number of cancelled flights….”
    “The government has indicated to universities that Australia’s immigration and health-screening systems would be stretched by a surge of arrivals and students might need to be processed in batches of 1000.”
    “The officers advised that students allowed to return “would need to agree to self-isolation in Australia and universities would need to make arrangements to support student self-isolation”.

    There are an awful lot of qualifiers. After 29 February, if, if, if, if, if….

    If your business depended on this change in policy, would you be feeling very confident? Or looking at the long series of high hurdles that had just been placed in front of you?

    The comments were made by unidentified “officers” who know this suggestion doesn’t have popular support, but who understand they do occasionally have to do their masters bidding to keep their comfortable jobs, salary and title. They largely managed to remain anonymous – other than the chief who had to put his name on the line, but who managed to work into his statement that it was a “risk-benefit thing that government will have to consider.”

    “The timetable that they need to meet … to ensure they can have students in place – we still have a number of weeks ahead of us on that front,” Mr Morrison said.
    So the University year usually starts in early March. He knows he has time on his side, and that there is no way this is going to happen. So just look reasonable, avoid making powerful enemies, and run down the clock.

    The way this thing is going, there is no way this relaxation will seem to be prudent by 29 February. Just today, we had cases in Korea more than double, an outbreak in Italy, and another outbreak in Iran.

    However…… the government must be seen to be listening to important people and large industries, and to be at least contemplating all suggestions they may make. And so it is being seen to do all this.
    And then an “Ummm, no, the situation has changed somewhat with Korea, and Japan, and Italy, and Singapore, and Iran….. and the message we are getting from the public is that they are increasingly alarmed, and um sorry, but no.”

    “Vicki Thomson, chief executive of the Group of Eight universities, welcomed the government’s examination of ways to minimise the impact of the travel ban on universities and students.”
    Me thinks Vicki is going to be disappointed. A bit like my kids understand that “We’ll see” usually means “No F way.”

    And this doesn’t look promising either

  31. Looks like Sanders has another win, with that the thought of Warren as Head of Treasury becomes closer …. the melt down on Wall St would be epic …

    • Something will happen to poor Bernie. The Dems won’t have him. Hitlery and her mob will be planning. A sudden and unfortunate heart attack. Oh well, too bad.

      • In my view, Michael Bloomberg is the only remaining Dem who has a realistic shot in November.

        I don’t quite get why he wants to go through all the trouble though.

        • The Blue dog corporatist DNC dems want to keep Sanders out.

          Sanders is not critical to the policy advocacy in the long run and has constantly polled as the only Democrat that can take out Trump.

        • That’s the argument, isn’t it — just stay away from debates and buy the election instead.

          • Debates are good for little-known candidates who need recognition – they can show themselves to be known. Bloomberg does not need that.

            Besides, a good debater does not make a good leader or a good decision maker. It will be interesting to see how far Bloomberg can go.

          • Why am I not surprised you two would support the guy that is trying too – buy – his way in to the election.

          • An election is essentially a hiring process of a fixed-term employee, I mean, representative.

            I do not know about you, but when I hire someone I put more weight to what a candidate has accomplished in the past than how he/she performed during an interview or what he/she promised to do if hired.