Trusting coronavirus statistics: Iran edition

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Here’s the problem. Iran has a reported 95 coronavirus cases with 16 deaths. Countries all around Iran have alos come down with the virus, enough to suggest that of those 95, half have gone elsewhere.

Then there is this:

Iran’s deputy health minister and an MP have both tested positive for the new coronavirus, as it struggles to contain an outbreak that has killed 15.

The country is one of three hot-spots outside China causing concern that the virus could be becoming a pandemic.

The deputy minister, Iraj Harirchi, on Monday denied covering up the scale of the outbreak. He appeared in physical discomfort as he spoke to reporters.

What are the odds of this kind of spread with just 65 reported cases?

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You can’t trust virus statistics from autocratic regimes.

For that matter, with only five US cities doing 400 tests, you’ve got to wonder about democracies too.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.