Australian dollar bid as virus fixed!

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

The Australian dollar is bid this afternoon as market damage winds back a little:

Bond gains have softened at all-time low yeilds:

XJO is still down solidly and has set up a massive double top:

Iron ore is down a little:

Big Iron is down more, execpt FMG, the most leveraged to price. Go figure:

I’, pleased to see Big Gas getting flared:

Big Gold is still a big disappointment:

The CBA bubble may be bursting:

Big Realty isn’t happy either:

Violent sell-offs and rebounds are chacteeristic of bear not bull markets…

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. Yep a bit of risk-on buy the dip at present, SP500 futures up a bit, ASX and KOSPI rebounding a little from earlier lows, gold backing off a bit.

    Deep breath. It won’t last.

    • new confirmed out of korea looks to be about 30 cases. so global panic over i guess. thing is fixed.

    • I think it’s normal for a bounce after 1000 point sell off
      Maybe a day or 2 up or selling in Dow again tonight
      Think we are close to breaking down that’ll drag ASX lower too
      AUD held up quite well, looks like buying under 6590
      Think watch DXY, it may fall first in on a general US sell off
      I wouldn’t be surprised to see AUD back around 67c AUS fell a long way from 7030 to 6590 with no bounce
      Looks a little crazy, now getting very hard to guess

  2. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    Yeah was about to buy St Barbara mines late yesterday and then got nervous .. it is down 8.5% today and Newcrest is down nearly 4%

    Been monitoring BEAR ETFs also .. just not sure where to jump in and you need monitor as it pretty volatile.

    At the moment I am long cash and have no exposure to Shares. Moved 50% of super from Aust share to now 100% fixed interest.

    Keen to have a crack at something I can short.

    Any ideas?

    Or might just wait and jump back in once the market retreats 15-20%

    • Beware the FOMO. There are no free lunches. I have occasionally made a few percent here and there on leveraged short ETFs but have also lost the same amounts even when everything looked impossible to get wrong. I am probably slightly ahead over time but not worth the hassle in my view. But successful traders have a different tolerance to risk. If you don’t have it (I clearly don’t) better not to go there.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Well, to paraphrase my diary:

            Don’t take any risks.
            Don’t take make any serious profits.
            Do get burned on the odd risk when one finally takes it. And bails out. Too fkcn early.

            Do sit back watching the current carnage wondering if it’s the real thing. And wondering why I’m not happy about it (100% of super in bonds/fixed interest for over a week). I should be snorting hookers and drinking coke every night given that. But all I’m doing is stressing about when to BTFD. Not yet. Almost certainly not tomorrow either. Or is it?

            Damn… there’s my investment manifesto reveal out the window. How will I sell the story of my life (in hardcover) now?

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Yep. You had me at hello.

            You lost me at googling Anthony Edwards.
            But if everyone was absolutely identical, where would the fun in that be.

            E.g. guarantee you loved Trainspotting and think there’s nothing wrong with Gwyneth Paltrow that a big edit wouldn’t fix. Generally speaking.

    • RE
      I know it’s easy to say now but the short was at 7100/7150 it was insane up there
      I still think we are going lower, but it’s always hard to jump in after 2 big sell off days

      • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

        Yeah thanks Bcnich….

        Best to sit on the sidelines or test the taps at the local..

        I think you are from the Hills district?

        I can be found tasting the amber ale at the Bull and bush if you are ever around… just ask if “Scoop” .. someone will point you in my direction.

        • RED
          I used to live in Sydney in my trading days, in pado, rushcutters bay
          Worked in Martin place
          My cousins lived in carlingford north rocks, think that’s out your way ??

          • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

            Yep … Carlingford isn’t far away and is now high rise city… NorthRocks still a nice part of the world .. but developer keen to get the golf course and overdevelop as well …

        • Red
          My cousins lived in page court carlingford
          Around 1977 to 1980 around
          It was a great area
          No units at all
          My cousin and I used to walk to north rocks I think and play space invaders
          I have really good memories from then

    • Yeah right mate the virus is cured. Go long.

      Nothing goes down in a straight line. It always bounces up a bit, then give it a few more days and ka splat again.

      • I think the expression is “nothing goes UP in a straight line”

        Because everything goes up eventually
        It’s only cash which is gradually devalued

        The dips are buying opportunities

        • Everything goes up eh.

          Hope you went long the Myer float the day of launch then.

          Hope you went long AUD in Jan 2018 at 81c.

          Why not go long everything on the ASX right now? You might break even in ten years, in nominal terms. That’s how long it took the ASX to recover after the GFC.

          Honestly, fill your boots! Please.

          • A2
            I just read that rot
            Put aside his abuse I’ve gone back and read his comments
            He’s really dumb
            Cash becomes more valuable when other assets fall

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Chick fight! Chick fight! Now hug and kiss and make-up. And kiss.

          To make my day complete, please. You chunts. 😘

    • Probably have to ween myself off coming
      Think this internet stuff gets addictive
      I can’t play golf and can’t cook but love dogs
      I’m not sure what else to do
      Do you ever get that feeling to tell everyone to get fxcked?

      • I honestly think you’ve got mental health issues bcnich

        The pressured typing style mainly
        But also the fire and brimstone, and solar cycles

        I’d advise to take care of yourself
        Enjoy life and don’t take the internet seriously

        I just don’t want other people to get hurt by believing your ranting is actually prophetic

        • Coming
          Maybe but you haven’t come up with anything insightful as I’ve told people on here that I’ve had some challenges, there is upsides and downsides, some of the upsides are being able to see things that others can’t, downside we tend to type like mental cases
          I went a bid hard yesterday, sorry if i offended you, I think I’d had enough being told I was mental when virtually everything I’ve said over 12 months has been correct
          The world is full of drug addicts, alcoholics and people with physical and mental health issues
          I’d nearly say who is normal

          • Mate you pick numbers out of the air (” i think we’ll see a bounce at 524090 before it flattens out around 545147″) and call things based on solar cycles and your gut feeling

            I don’t bother to keep track of your calls, because who can remember them all – you make about 5 a day

            Let’s be real, you’ve got as little idea of what is going to happen as anybody else does

        • Coming
          I hope this doesn’t offend you, you have a very closed mind, this is why you lack insight.
          The only way to grow is by being open to new ideas
          Seriously you sound like a really average person, and a little lacking of intelligence
          What’s your story comings?
          You’ve never said anything intelligent, all you do is criticise
          You actually don’t even pay for your membership so how can you even make that bet

          • don’t need to pay to never come back again

            i guess you can just renew your membership in the new year under a new handle if you lose anyway

            We’ll still be able to recognize you but at least it will force a new name

            I don’t really have a story
            I’m just a guy with a good bullsh1t detector

        • That’s fine A2
          It’s normal when you are controversial
          The truth hurts

          I made some pretty big calls and if I was really wrong I would have been laughed off but I’ve had a reasonably accurate track record
          All good

        • I’ll tell you what

          If property is down >30% (in AUD ) by the end of the year, I’ll delete my account

          Otherwise bcnich has to go

          What do you think?

          • Coming
            You are an imbecile
            You don’t even pay for your membership and you want me off
            You’re an idiot, why don’t you say something intelligent
            House prices are going to collapse in Melb and Sydney this year

          • Imbecile , Fock off, lacking intelligence

            What have you come up with that’s so insightful ?

            It’s just the same vomiting disaster , disaster every day

            You’ve correctly called about 5000 of the last 0 market crashes

          • I’m not the one throwing insults

            I genuinely think you’re unwell

            What’s your annual income bcnich?
            I suspect you’re out of the workforce probably because you can’t manage it emotionally
            And I don’t think you trade profitably

            Am I correct ?

          • yes or no, bcnich?

            I want your inane ramblings off the site

            You want me to stop being mean to you

            I believe you’ve called a fall in Australian house prices >50%?
            I think the house price one is the best one, since the whole commentariat here is obsessed with them
            Im willing to make it >30%

            What do you want to make it

          • Bcnich I don’t know why Coming comes here. Doesn’t add any value, just sniping. I am always interested in opposite views but need reason and argument, not aggression.

          • @A2 I generally find that Coming has alternative contrarian views on real estate and that’s what I find interesting. Since I was so sure of a 50-60% crash happening and then it didn’t.

            I’m sure eventually prices will collapse but I’m just not sure what trade to make to benefit from it, given the everything bubble and if 1 market falls the rest will along with it. So it’s a case of pick your poison.