Links 13 January 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen


    • My missus is from Hobart so I spend a bit of time down there, but it’s experiencing what is happening on the mainland, but exploding. Every time there are more and more noodle shops and massage parlors in the cbd, more ‘uber drivers’ and a combination of these people and mainlanders buying houses to rent/airbnb as investments.

      We were down at Chrissy and as her parents house was full we stayed in the family shack 45 mins out of hobart and drove in most days. This is an area where everyone has water tanks, septic tanks and curbside rubbish is only a recent thing. Values have been stable for years (very low – their place doesn’t even have flooring down), but now mainlanders are buying them in lots of 3-4 and then renting them out to locals for huge amounts. It’s a joke – this is in a town where there is a shitty general store and an RSL.

      People ‘investing’ in Tas are going nuts and are going to feel the loss when values drop similar to people who were speculating in the GC in the 2000s

      • I certainly believe they will lose their shirts. My step brother has moved over with his wife and loves it. He originally tried to buy a house before moving over but bank declined his credit based on the fact he didn’t have a job there first. But when he did move over he was kind of glad he didn’t buy in the area because of the demographics. I think a lot of investors are not doing homework and will get burnt. But like you say houses are being snapped up to the point where there is no stock left.

      • It’s the Indian Uber drivers that are the hookers main clients (v reliable source)
        The bubble in Hobart is going to burst this year too along with Mel and Syd

      • I’ve got some friends( both accountants) doing exactly as you describe- flying over, multiple poor quality houses in small towns.
        These people used to be risk averse, and social welfare minded.
        Their eyes shine, and their faces glow when they talk about the multiple, multiple purchases.
        It’s like watching people who’ve entered a cult!
        And like Gavan above, I think this will end in tears.

        • JS
          There was an old and proven to be a v true statement on the trading desks
          “the Greedy become the Needy”
          It’ll be proven to be true once again and I believe it’s this year.
          History just keeps repeating
          Every bubble eventually bursts

    • A poll done by/for the Sweden Taxpayers Association. Unfortunately the link to the origan report is in Swedish so I can’t even make a cursory check of the integrity of the Breitbart claim. I doubt it.

  1. Nuclear cheaper by far … Kiwiblog

    Next Big Future reports:

    France’s nuclear energy spending was 60% of what Germany spent on renewables. France gets about 400 Terawatt hour per year from nuclear but Germany gets 226 Terawatt-hours each year. 45 Terawatt-hours of Germany’s renewable power comes from burning biomass which generates air pollution. …

    … concluding …

    … So France using nuclear gets twice as much power for around half the cost of Germany using renewable.

    And the plants last three to four times as long.

    French electricity costs are just 59% of German electricity prices. France produces one-tenth the carbon pollution from electricity compared to Germany.

    So here’s how you can tell if a climate activist is sincere. Do they support nuclear power or not.

    • Small modular reactors are manufactured to standardised designs that offer economies of scale and can be delivered on trucks to remote sites.

      What are small modular nuclear reactors, and why are three provinces uniting to build them?

    • French electricity costs are just 59% of German electricity prices. France produces one-tenth the carbon pollution from electricity compared to Germany.

      comparing apples and oranges
      hundreds of billions of taxpayers dollars invested in nuclear not included
      tens of billions needed for decommissioning and cleanup of nuclear in France not included
      waste storage and fuel recycling only partially accounted for

      • Nuclear power may have saved 1.8 million lives otherwise lost to fossil fuels, may save up to 7 million more.

        31 Oct 2019

        German utility Uniper has been given the green light to start commercial operations at its new 1.5-billion-euro Datteln 4 coal-fired power plant

    • billygoatMEMBER

      Orwell Tavi stock puppet = generational social engineering via education. Compulsory reading for western high school students. Revered by academics & critics alike…always dystopian future once out of primary school. Eastern countries & USSR were supposedly living the Orwellian ‘dream’/ dystopian nightmare

    • “One of the most important developments in England during the past twenty years has been the upward and downward extension of the middle class”

      How does this compare today with the shift from Nationalism to Globalism?

      • He seems to be talking about the same thing that is happening now except the middle classes are even larger and even more antagonised by left intellectuals who eagerly give them reasons to vote for conservatives.

        “…After twenty years of stagnation and unemployment, the entire English Socialist movement was unable to produce a version of Socialism which the mass of the people could even find desirable. The Labour Party stood for a timid reformism, the Marxists were looking at the modern world through nineteenth-century spectacles. Both ignored agriculture and imperial problems, and both antagonized the middle classes. The suffocating stupidity of left-wing propaganda had frightened away whole classes of necessary people, factory managers, airmen, naval officers, farmers, white-collar workers, shopkeepers, policemen. All of these people had been taught to think of Socialism as something which menaced their livelihood, or as something seditious, alien, “anti-British” as they would have called it. Only the intellectuals, the least useful section of the middle class, gravitated towards the movement….”

        • “Only the intellectuals, the least useful section of the middle class”

          They are busy adjusting their mathematical models which indicated certain victory in Brexit vote.

  2. Flammable Cladding

    OK loosers™, buy now or be priced out forever.

    The housing market looks set for a busy start to the year after many Australians spent the Christmas break getting ready to buy a home.

    It comes as Sydney and Melbourne house prices are tipped to continue to grow in the first half of 2020 following a strong rebound late last year due to the combination of several interest rate cuts, relaxed lending conditions and renewed market confidence after the federal election.

    Tipped by who???

    The election was 8 months ago.

    “I’ve postponed my usual two-week break over Christmas and New Year’s,” he said, adding that his appointments are up 200 per cent year-on-year to date.

    “There are decent properties close to transport, schools … what that means is as soon as property is coming on in those fringe suburbs anywhere between the $300,000 to $400,000 range, the competition is excessive.”

    Postponed your break because your income plummeted in 2019.

    ‘Decent properties’ … apart from the the Flammable Cladding (can I get a ‘hell yeah’?), defective waterproofing, movement in downwards motion withing 2 years of completion, 45 minutes sardine like conditions on the train each morning and night, frequent South Sudanese vibrancy injections and a local hospital bed to population ratio that would make even, well – South Sudan – ashamed.

    If the competition is too ‘excessive’, can I suggest waddling over to gumtree and checking the Indian nomination sales section …

  3. Flammable Cladding

    The currently rostered cadre of SMH Politburu censors must have dialed it in whilst still coming down post a heavily MDMA fuelled FOMO on their once yearly visit to the Western Suburbs.

    A few nice anti immigration posts being let through on the water supply story.

    • I agree that everything in the universe moves simple harmonically all you can do is tinker with the amplitude of vibration as we have already seen.But what makes you think it will happen this year not next year or the year after?

      • One reason
        The bears have turned bullish
        The bulls have turned euphoric (C Joye & co + 30% house price growth 2020 predictions)
        The UBER bears have thrown the towel
        Even the PESSIMIST has thrown the towel in

        Everyone who knows house prices are over valued, think they should come off but probably in a few years time

        Can you please tell me anyone who is saying (forecasting) even a fall this year ? Let alone a major correction

        I’d say you couldn’t tell me anyone who is saying we are going to get a 10 to 20% correction in 2020

        Is there anyone forecasting any fall this year

        Can someone on here tell me (genuine Q)


        These things always happen when it’s unexpected
        It’s the way it is

        • I have not thrown in the towel yet my friend and I really hope your prediction comes true. I understand stock market can drop 30/40% in a matter of weeks and what causes the fall is the transparency of transacted prices and the ease of getting rid of stocks at the click of a button.As for our property market the stock on is market is declining and there is no panic to sell which is kind of supporting the prices at current levels.You need a huge momentum of panic to create a 20% fall this year and I do not see that developing at the moment .Even though people are losing jobs it does not seem to be at an alarming rate. It looks to me a major black swan event is the only thing that can create a big fall this year.Even the Middle East war seems to be fizzling out.

          • It’s coming P this year, Be prepared
            The big black swan is heading down the river
            The big black swan always comes when no is expecting it

          • You won’t be waiting much longer Mr Haroldus
            But I’d say most who wanted it to happen will regret wishing it to happen .

        • ‘They’ are the usual suspects, Government (of both persuasions), the banks etc. Housing underpins everything, we all need a roof over our heads be it Jimmy’s, miners, public servants whomever. The economy would struggle but cope with a segmented downturn in say international student numbers or commodity prices but collapse in housing prices will affect the economy across the board. That’s why they’re sh1t scared.

  4. Ahem…it’s January 12th. 12 days into the new decade. Anything can happen. Anything. I think we’re gonna get pricefalls and my gut is telling me it’s gonna be related to geopolitics. The charade will be over. Time to pay the consequences.

    • “Time to pay the consequences”??? Consequences? We live in an age devoid of consequences. There are no just deserts.