Coronavirus accelerates in China

It ain’t pretty in the daily update:

  • 4,295 cases globally, most in China;
  • 855 critical;
  • 106 deaths;
  • mortality rate up again near 4%.
  • 30k sick under observation in China alone.

Much faster than SARS. Clearly out of control.

S&P futures are, of course, up.


David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. Its way worse then they let on. I saw an expert assessment on Youtube the other day and the infection rate realistically would be in the tens of thousands in China. The expert was convinced they are under reporting the number from Wuhan alone.

    • A taxi driver just told me that there’s over 10,000 deaths already. His sister is a nurse in Guangdong apparently. Says govt is seriously under reporting it

    • Wouldn’t doubt it, the incremental number of deaths per day is gradual, but those infected have sky rocketed

    • China Virus🇨🇳🦠 Exponential spread.

      1 virus infected person on average spreads to over 3 additional people plus Chinese super spreaders who have no symptoms.

      3 to 5 people infected of every 100 will die.
      No particular age or gender bias in mortality – obviously older people or those who are health compromised will die first.

      How many Chinese infected?
      👉🏻Right now about 50,000.

      The statistics lag weeks behind the real virus spread.
      Many of the infected Chinese are in hiding at home or afraid to go into the death zone hospitals or have fled across China to overseas.

      The 3,000 or so cases are at least 16 days behind and as stated it spreads exponentially – doubling every 4 days.
      3,000 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 (16 days) = 48,000 of which 1,500 will die.

      In another 16 days it will be 768,000 and 23,000 will die.

      A month after that it will be 98,000,000 and 3 million will die.

      And after 6 months at least 2 billion or more globally will be infected, and over 50 million dead globally.
      Some say (Washington Post) that this is a suspected Chinese BioWarfare weapon released from their illegal Wuhan bio weapons lab.

      Whatever the source / the virus is perfect in its design to mostly spread and not kill the host too quickly.

      The infected person will show no signs of the Chinese virus for up to 8-10 days but is infectious from day 2 allowing them to spread it to others.

      It has a 3-5% mortality.

      No vaccine and that’s unlikely – they still haven’t got a vaccine for SARS.

      Antivirals like Tammiflu don’t work as different virus design. (See the recent lancet link below).

      Death is by failure of the lungs that go like fibreglass from day 9 onwards and complete body organ failure.

      Lancet Medical Report on the spread, symptoms, contagion and mortality rate & that no vaccine or existing medicine will stop the virus.

      Infected people that do live on will remain infectious (think Hep or TB or HIV) and will have to be quarantined from healthy people forever.

      The virus is spread by cough and by touch.
      The virus in the air or by touch and can even enter the eyeballs by air contact or touch / so normal masks and hand washing aren’t going to help much.
      When it goes full plague – there will be no safe place for humans apart from shelters with isolated air & full bio safety entry control,
      There will be a huge panic on Food, water, fuel and guns.
      Millions of people will try to flee the Australian Chinese infected cities and urban areas to rural safe havens.

      Tens of millions of infected foreigners from Asia will also try to invade the western countries seeking safe haven, including Australia.


      What went wrong.

      This virus has gone global, because the Chinese lied.
      It’s as simple as that.

      The Chinese at first denied the outbreak for 6 weeks.
      The first case was reported on the 1st December 2019.
      The Chinese knew by mid December 2019 that pattern of infection and very high death rate was an outbreak of a new plague capable virus.

      It was finally reported in mid December 2019 & both the CDC & Who played down or denied what was happening, saying it wasn’t human to human transmission.

      The Chinese then repeatedly lied saying it could not be spread human to human – despite knowing that a large number of Chinese hospital staff had caught the disease from the infected Chinese.

      To make it worse – 5 million Chinese were then allowed to flee Wuhan and spread the killer contagion across China. (Wuhan mayor statement)

      And to overseas, into Australia.

      To infect everyone.
      Our government did not put in emergency controls and did not stop the Chinese infected exodus entering our country by air travel.

      The ‘temperature checks’ and brochures & warnings by Australia were already known by the Chinese, the CDC & Who to be a complete joke & ineffectual.

      👉🏾They all knew and have known for weeks that this infected horde of Chinese wouldn’t have symptoms – but they would infect others.

      And yet they lied and let this spread.

      How many will now die?
      Globally at least 70 -120 million.

      That’s based on the 1919 Spanish Flu epidemic which infected over 1.3 billion with 55 million dead.
      The world now has 4 times as many people as the last mass killer virus outbreak like this – and many more vectors for rapid transmission.
      (1919 1.8 billion, Today 7.6 billion).

      👉🏻Australian Protection needed.

      🇨🇳🦠All Chinese Nationals from overseas who entered in the last month need to be rounded up and placed in quarantine.

      🇨🇳🦠No Chinese to enter – our Australian borders totally sealed in an air & sea blockade.

      🇨🇳🦠Any airline that has carried Chinese nationals to be grounded & deep disinfected.
      All Aeroplanes & airports are the prime vector for transmission of the disease.

      🇨🇳🦠Same with Chinese goods coming in by air freight – they will carry the contagious virus in the goods & packaging. It is not known how long the virus is contagious by touch but it could be more than a week.

      🇨🇳🦠Quarantine & isolation of all other travellers and goods entering the Australia for at least 15 days.
      This includes the many PR, Chinese, Asian & other who live overseas on Australian welfare, but will now try to get back into Australia.

      🇨🇳🦠Chinese enclaves in Sydney & Melbourne need to locked down with army enforcement and compulsory testing of all Chinese as that’s also a prime vector. Chinese foreign nationals to the local Chinese and then into the Australian public.

      👉🏾Our Hospitals and health care facilities are going to be very dangerous places, full of diseased people and should be avoided.

      👉🏾Any close contact or touching of a surface that may carry Chinese virus infection to be avoided.
      Atm’s, cash money, railway stations & buses, schools hospitals and the workplace.

      This is not a race statement – but just a simple sensible precaution as Chinese nationals and their onshore Chinese communities are the primary vector of disease transmission right now.

      Full Chinese virus plague outbreak in Australia?

      👉🏾A designated state – Tasmania is ideal to be set up as a mass quarantine camp to hold the millions expected who will have the virus.

      Clearly the 2.7 million TR & 900,000 tourist visitors foreign nationals need to be rapidly deported.
      The ethics of sending them back to their own countries also gripped by the Chinese virus plague can be questioned – but Australia and Australia citizens first.
      Also these 3.0+ million foreign nationals are only here as guests, are lower socioeconomic – most are on visa breach & they are very highly concentrated in Sydney or Melbourne enclaves that will spread the virus like wildfire. And their rapid deportation helps as relieve the burden on our health care and our police / army in attempted enforcement of law & order.

      So all 900,000 foreign student & partner visas revoked.
      All 690,000 NZ SCV exited. NZ problem.
      All 630,000 ‘long stay / repeat stay’ tourist visas cancelled.
      All the other 350,000 or so tourist visas revoked & immediate exit.
      All 310,000 working holiday & rural visas cancelled.
      All 230,000 protection visas cancelled.
      All 180,000 skilled & partner visas cancelled.
      And all the other visa categories as well.

      => 3.6 million non citizens rounded up & exited immediately. Long overdue.

      ▫️Gloves, full face mask protection/ eye covering.
      ▫️Water & food supply. Water storage & filtration.
      ▫️Weapons & ammunition, as in a full plague our law & order will rapidly break down.
      ▫️Fuel & portable generator.
      ▫️Plastic sheeting and tape & fan air filtration if you intend to try and stay in your home.
      ▫️Barricades / steel mesh & sheeting.

      👉🏾Ideally you would seek safe haven in an isolated rural community with water and food supplies that can be defended from attack.

      There will be hundreds of thousands of virus infected people from the cities also seeking such shelter, food & water for themselves.
      And don’t think the thin veneer of our police or army will be able to provide safety and protection.
      It will be ‘everyone for themselves’ in a full plague event.

    • Scotty from marketing

      They were working on a virus that only worked on Caucasians the lord works in mysterious ways amen

      • Sounds like the plot of a James Bond movie.
        Then again, have the Chinese actually invented anything since they invented gunpowder?

  2. Infection rates are predicted to peak in April. We have months to go before then.

    I predict China will extend the Wuhan quarantine to the whole country in the next couple of weeks.

  3. why would coronavirus shock markets?
    War with iran isn’t
    Trade war with China isn’t
    Brexit isn’t
    Breakup of comms with NK isn’t
    HK riots isn’t
    Impeachment isn’t
    Have I missed anything out?

  4. Meanwhile, the Morrison government demands you risk your kids’ health in the midst of virus outbreak for the sake of the international student dollar.

    From the Oz:

    “Elite schools in Sydney and Melbourne are isolating pupils who have recently visited China or telling them to stay away for at least a fortnight, while other schools are demanding medical certificates as the school year begins this week.

    But the Minister said schools should be following federal health department advice that all students should be going to school unless they have coronavirus symptoms or had contact with someone with signs of the virus.

    Mr Tehan said on Tuesday that Australia must “send a message” that the country is still open to international students, and all schools should follow the advice that pupils must be in class.”

    Absolutely disgusting. A complete betrayal of Australians.

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    The contrasting protections being applied to “Elite school” students compared to Public School students is Glaring and will not be forgotten or forgiven.

  6. “It ain’t pretty in the daily update:
    4,295 cases globally, most in China;
    855 critical;
    106 deaths;
    mortality rate up again near 4%.
    30k sick under observation in China alone.”

    If 50% of the critical die (not unlikely in an overwhelmed health system), that puts the fatality rate at around 10%
    Latest figures from this site
    4,474 cases
    107 dead
    63 recovered
    Presumably 4.304 still infected – some of whom will die

    • blindjusticeMEMBER

      how long is the lag between infection and death, anyone know? we work out the death rate based on current infection rates rather than the infection rate at the time the deceased was infected. Look at the figures of how many are cured…definite lag…seems like a ***** of a thing to catch

      • blindjusticeMEMBER

        Am I wrong to look at it this way? I would have thought there were many more cases where people got sick and it turned out like a bad flu and recovered at home no problem – this may be the case, however, if you do end up in hospital it doesnt look good

      • Thats not clear from the data we have. Will vary significantly (mainly with age of the patient).

        You are quite correct – calculations of the fatality rate will be low during the growth phase because those dying now got infected when the total number of cases was significantly lower than now. Thats just how the statistics work early on.

        The fatality rate will most likely drift upward over time. The situation with SARS is instructive
        Initial fatality rate estimated to be less than 4%
        Then revised to 6-7%
        Finally revised to 12-14%

      • 4474 people in a room. two doors out, recovered (63 people come out so far) or dead (107).
        perhaps there are cases that do not degrade so much the person goes to hospital, or perhaps people collapse at home and also go uncounted while it’s bedlam. oldies living alone.. whatever..
        but official stats to me indicate 60%+ fatality.
        if this gets loose in australia, those who made these decisions to continue letting people in and just hand out pamphlets need to be held personally responsible for the deaths. I’m not saying the bereaved should take matters into their own hands. (waves at asio)

  7. As expected, there’s been a surge in Australian citizens of convenience demanding that the Australian government evacuate them from their ethnic homeland.

    “Health Minister Greg Hunt says there has been “significant progress” in the government’s attempts to get at least 400 Australians out of China’s coronavirus-stricken regions.”

  8. Seeing plenty of them cvnts walking around with masks on at my local shops here in Sydney. Is that a sign to the rest of us how bad this gonna be?


    But the general public don’t need to worry because (according to the Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy;

    There is no human-to-human transmission of this virus [in Australia] and it is important to know because we had media ask about masks today

    Hang on – I was under the impression that human-to-human transmission was a feature of this virus??? ‘straya is different.

  10. Ronin8317MEMBER

    Hubei is a lost cause, so focus on the grown in number outside Hubei. If they start to grow exponential then it’ll be lockdown everywhere.

    Lockdown started on 23rd January. If the measure is effective, then the number of new cases will no longer increase exponentially around 6th of February.

  11. Well here I am right now sitting in front of my class of 11 Chinese students. At present 4 of them have masks on. They have an assessment task at the moment so they had to come in today, but speaking to them before they were quite concerned about it all.
    A lot of rumours swirling around but they seem as much in the dark as we are. I get the impression they don’t trust the figures coming out from China either.