Links 9 December 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:

Americas:

Europe:

Asia:

Trans-Tasman:

Leith van Onselen

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Comments

  1. Trumpoids take a bow … everything is fixed ….

    Even as the U.S. economy hums along at a favorable pace, there is a vast segment of workers today earning wages low enough to leave their livelihood and families extremely vulnerable. That’s one of the main takeaways from our new analysis, in which we found that 53 million Americans between the ages of 18 to 64—accounting for 44% of all workers—qualify as “low-wage.” Their median hourly wages are $10.22, and median annual earnings are about $18,000. – snip

    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2019/11/21/low-wage-work-is-more-pervasive-than-you-think-and-there-arent-enough-good-jobs-to-go-around/

    Would add that blood is a bigger export than soy or corn, obviously a positive indicator of national wealth when your surplus [citizens bodily fluids] can be exported for top dollar ….

  2. Electricity Prices to Fall
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/household-electricity-bills-forecast-to-fall-20191206-p53hpp.html
    WHY?
    I read the article twice to see if I missed something but it still makes no sense to me.
    Why will Electricity prices fall as Solar and Wind generation volumes increase?
    As an example of why increases in Residential Solar won’;t decrease the cost of Grid electricity try reading
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-01/rise-of-rooftop-solar-power-jeopardising-wa-energy-grid/11731452
    Now maybe they’re saying the Large Scale Renewable’s operate differently, which is true in the sense that the Solar generation farm understands the Electricity market better and will be able to predict several day’s in advance how much Electricity they will generate at any point in time however none of that stops a cloud from blocking out the sun it’s all just kinda an averaging (location and time) sort of thing.
    IMHO Without cost effective quick response Battery backup systems supporting the Grid it will collapse, now it probably won’t collapse when there’s excess demand (the operations corner where we would traditionally expect “load shedding” (brown out’s/Black-outs) The worst case Grid operations corner is likely to become the very sunny but cool day.
    Over the next decade the national Grid (NEM) needs to be dramatically re-engineered to cope with the expected levels of Residential level PV electricity exports, this re-engineering won’t be cheap and will be somehow reflected in the prices that customers pay. Maybe when the job is done Electricity prices will fall but that’s probably at least 20 years from now.

    • And right on time the ABC publishes this
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-08/authorities-look-to-control-house-rooftop-solar-power-in-wa/11773436
      but apparently even the ABC is confused…on a different page
      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-09/power-prices-set-to-slide-in-next-three-years-says-aemc/11778476

      I guess all one can say is that the WA electricity problem was so yesterday’s news. Makes me wonder what sense an average Aussie can make of these conflicting “news-paper” articles, I’d say I have a way above average understanding of the problem and I must admit I get confused.
      Maybe this is not a topic that belongs in the public domain, back when I was a young Electrical Engineer most people could not have cared less about Electricity generation / distribution, you didn’t read about it in the daily newspapers and in those places where this conversation took place everyone involved had a much greater technical understanding of the issues along with a solid understanding of the grid’s overall objectives. Today Electricity is a Political football with vested interests competing for web site and newspaper front pages.

      • I watched him one afternoon in parliament last week, he totally bossed it, despite the fact I hardly believed a world he said & I believe most LNP policies are bad for Australia. Though part of the reason was parlament seems to be running more like a dictatorship than anything, seems no accountability anymore LNP just do what they want.

  3. NewsPoll 52-48 to the LNP with ScoMao’s preferred PM rating up 2 points. This country’s fvcked.

  4. From The Age:

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/four-teen-boys-charged-following-brutal-sunshine-hospital-assault-20191209-p53i1y.html

    “a junior doctor was attacked by four males who police at the time described as being of African appearance”

    Then the article below it:

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/labor-mp-calls-for-australia-to-lead-global-refugee-resettlement-push-20191206-p53hp9.html

    Labor MP calls for Australia to lead global refugee resettlement push

  5. No doubt we’ll be getting the same in due course, Amazons interests put ahead of public interests.

    https://privacyinternational.org/long-read/3298/alexa-what-hidden-behind-your-contract-nhs

    “Following a series of FOI requests from Privacy International and other organisations, the Department of Health and Social Care has now released its contract with Amazon, regarding the use of NHS content by Alexa, Amazon’s virtual assistant. The content of the contract is to a big extent redacted, and we contest the Department of Health’s take on the notion of public interest. “