Weekend Reading: 23-24 November 2019

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Unconventional Economist

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)

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  1. Ageism alive and well, says one woman who applied for 200 jobs – ABC

    Ms Sara believes ageism prevented her from landing a job.

    Foreign “students” rather than ageism. There are 2 million foreign workers here! And the fake left wants to import millions more.

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      At first I was kinda thinking “OK Boomer” reading Sara’s comment but your right Jay.
      This Age discrimination by employers against older people has been getting a lot of Media airtime after Josh Frydendorks call for Australians to work to an older age before retiring yet nowhere have I seen or heard or speculated the possible effects of having over 2.4 million right to work, non citizen workers in the Country and how THAT might be the cause of older people’s difficulties or inability in gaining employment.

      Just the predictable discrimination narrative.

      Fking yawn.

      • It’s alive and well I’m experiencing it now, late 40’s financial services background and I can’t get a look in at jobs I’m more than qualified for.

        Basically HR and recruiters have a mindset that if you’re over 45 you are over the hill and have no concept of technology or to the hiring manager you are a threat to them.

        • boomengineeringMEMBER

          Chin up Brett, HR have no concept full stop.Hopefully if unemployment gets bad enough they will lose their jobs and revert back to the boss interviewing you who will assess your skills rather than persona.
          Marine engineer but got horribly seasick so quit early in the career and became land based and couldn’t believe 40 was considered old use by date expiry. After getting rid of my staff at BE ended up needing fraternization so did some labour hire. Bloody hell all of a sudden was in high demand at near 70yo a while ago but been knocking it back as too much of my own work. One time at Orica the boss asked whether I wanted a trolley for the tool box ( a young uns innovation) nope old school ,he tried to lift it himself and called get a trolley quick.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            One place 35 was considered old, must have had needed perfect eyes or involved heavy lifting, don’t know.

        • Failed Baby BoomerMEMBER

          Yup Brett, I had the same experience.
          I was hoping for a period of semi-retirement doing odd project management contracts, but they just dried up and I moved to full retirement.
          I do not regret it as I have enough time for my technical hobbies now.
          Much to my surprise I have had requests to build some of the mini-systems I have developed as hobby projects!

        • Same here. Where are you based?

          Hearing from a number of recruitment agents that there are a heap of finance guys / bankers based in Singapore and HK (in particular) who want to come back here to live and just can’t catch a break. Firms here are fiercely anti the guys who’ve worked abroad – perceptions of arrogance, expectations of high pay, threats to incumbents etc.

          I’ve been thinking of trying to get together a coalition of ‘strays’ to do something. I know many would prefer a salaried job but maybe a non-capital intensive start-up could be a runner. Would probably need a couple of motivated locals with good connections to assist.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          I have a mate who does security vetting for ADF types, he tells me there are Master Degrees in IT going as base grade grunts into the ADF because there arent many gigs out there and they are all being farmed to recent offshore types, and the only way the recent graduates can stay remotely in the game is to try and specialise in something inside the ADF – not officer types but base grade grunting types.

          • Join any of the services and get into the intelligence and security professions and they can earn some pretty good coin. Stay in for 10 years, qual up, discharge then get a job in any of the security agencies. Good career path.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        I don’t have a lot of sympathy for Boomers as a generation, but I do recognise the benefits of “Boomerhood” faded as the generation progressed, leaving many in positions no better off than younger Australians. But it would be a LOT easier for +50 older Australians to find work, if they weren’t being forced to compete against imported Indians half their age.

        Mass Migration is a War against Australian workers, young AND old, full stop.

          • I’m not sure it has sunk in properly yet Gunna, The one’s who have benefited certainly aren’t helping the image of their cohort. Similar to drunk Aussie footballers in Bali giving us all a bad name because of their arrogant shennenigans.

          • TailorTrashMEMBER

            Just as it took a long time for some to realise that not all South Africans had swimming pools and hosts of servants ……..there were some very poor wh1te trash in Africa too……….many still there …..trapped in poverty just like many boomers in Straya

          • About 20% or so are active scumbags full of their own ‘S-word’, investment housing, share franked dividends another 30% or so have done quite well due to being able to stay in work for their entire working lifetimes and the rest of us have been pushed out long before being able to aquire serious wealth or assets beyond the basics. My entire family affected. Brothers job as a cleaning supervisor was lost due to the main contract being lost to a mob that only employed Indians for $10ph. Sister sidelined from career due to illness in her 30’s but then all new posts filled with immigrants. My job hived off to India, my wifes replaced with rotating Indian contractors and so on. Same for some of our friends. A few done well purely on account of keeping their jobs for long enough.

        • Look you boys let us do our job’s we’re adding a bit pepper to sun proff our people climate and all you know see the blinded men shooting at the world wait for the ricochet

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I found applying for gubmint jobs that require you to pass a police check sidelines an awful lot of the potential 2m+ temporary visa job opposition.

        Reckon there’s a lot of people out there who aren’t who they say they are.

        • Good to know. My background is clean as a whistle. So I guess I can look forward to cruising on a Government backed job. The Mrs loved working at Stonington council said it was the best job she had.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Unfortunately though Gav only about 5% of jobs in Straya require the check.

            The rest are open to all sorts of unpleasantness.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Had quite a few police check certificates, to work at Airport, Navy etc. they always ask for one not older than 6mths so cost you every time for new one.

          • ErmingtonPlumbing

            I gotta get one for working in a prestigious girls school on the lower north shore yet I Only work there during the school holidays when none of them are there!

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Correct Ermo
            Forgot about that one, had to fix a etching press while they were on hols, in North Sydney after the one at St Marys Cathedral city.

        • Many gov jobs are now outsourced via every dodgy scheme you can imagine. A friend in Canberra had to recruit numerous IT software testers, he was suspicious about the pedigree of their education and resume’s. He proved to his superiors that they were all liars but got his own arse kicked and told to shut up and hire them. Was a decree from high above apparently. He got tossed out before turning 60, had been put on the troublemakers list.

        • Federally, you have to be an Australian citizen to get a job then you have to under at a minimum a baseline security assessment. Believe this is nothing more than a police check but any higher clearances usually requires a background check that includes where you’ve lived, partner checks etc. If you can’t prove who you say you are, it’s all over. Apparently they’re a pain in the ass to do.

    • I’ve started calling them the Neo-Liberal left and they sure don’t like that. I suspect it hurts because it’s true and, despite their protestations, they know it.

    • BBs’ entitlement nature makes them too expensive

      if she said she is willing to do as much work as young for as little money as them she would be ahead of them for jobs

  2. Are you bored? Or really, really bored? Searching “Everything (candidate) Said During the Democratic Debate in Atlanta” on youtube brings up the clips of all the candidates. Of the ones I’ve seen Yang impressed me the most. It’d be nice if he and the other smaller candidates were given more air time.

  3. ErmingtonPlumbing

    “It took the emergence of the gilets jaunes to galvanise members of forgotten France. Around the time of the first yellow-vest protests, just 25 per cent of French voters said they approved of President Macron. In contrast, 73 per cent told pollsters they supported the gilets jaunes.

    Experiments in democracy

    Despite having no leader and no official manifesto, the gilets jaunes have coalesced around popular demands for better living conditions and for a greater say in political life. Democratic reform is high on the agenda. Many protesters have the letters ‘RIC’ scrawled on their jackets or on placards, which stand for référendum d’initiative citoyenne (citizens’ initiative referendum). They are calling for a referendum to be triggered on any proposal that can gather 700,000 signatures or more. They argue that this would allow the public to veto laws, withdraw from treaties and amend the constitution.

    Of course, the problem with referendums alone is that the political class can simply ignore or frustrate any results it dislikes, as happened in France in 2005 and as has been the story of Brexit since 2016.
    Real, lasting change needs real representation.”

    The supposedly “left leaning” media here in Australia has had very little to say about these happenings in France.
    The globalised establishment closing ranks against the working class everywhere it seems.
    Hardly fking “left”

    “The centre-left daily Libération noted that following the first weekend of protests, commentators were divided between those who saw the protesters as representing the ‘just anger of the people’, and those who saw them as a ‘band of polluting oafs, addicted to their cars, who need to be dealt with by the police’. One prominent Brussels correspondent tweeted that the yellow vests were simply a ‘movement of hicks’.

    The script could have almost been written in advance. The dismissal of working-class grievances or any challenge to the status quo as ‘fascist’ or ‘racist’ has become a tragic feature of politics common to almost all Western nations. Much of the same hysteria that followed the Brexit vote appeared in France in reaction to the yellow vests. The gilets jaunes are, in class terms, the French equivalent of the ‘deplorables’ or ‘gammon’. Only in France, the elite backlash took a violent turn.”

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/11/15/gilets-jaunes-the-french-insurrection-one-year-on/

    • Hillary said it best when she labelled them all as deplorables and racists leading up to the election and she lost as a result.

      Still politicians live in their own bubbles. So is it any surprise that they don’t get it? Nothing more frustrating than working hard and going backwards. Yet that’s been happening here for 10 years. I’m sure we will have our own working class protests soon and it won’t be pretty.

      I loved it in France when farmers used tractors to cover Government buildings in merde. Nobody protests like the French.

  4. boomengineeringMEMBER

    OK One more story, This one promised , I think to Janet months ago.
    Very big day at Queenscliff Bombora, 90’s,nasty and pitching, should have been out at 2nd Bombie which wasn’t nasty and pitching. Why did I take off on the impossible? Broken ribs and broken legrope. Offshore, so board went out to sea with me in hot pursuit but to no avail, oh well at least a Kiwi will have a board to ride. Swimming and halfway back to shore a clubbie on a rescue board insisted I climb aboard. ”Nah rather just swim in thanks” but me being easily talked into anything gave in. Bloody hell it hurt when laying on the board, shoulda stayed in the water. No, no not that, please don’t paddle past my mates at the Bower with me on a rescue board. Excruciatingly embarrassing and hard trying to be inconspicuous on red and yellow. Luckily no flak but for an off hand ”was that you” well after the fact.
    All healed about 8 mths later Manlys Big Wednesday arrived but because I was going broke at the time couldn’t afford a board and had been riding my sons 5’11”, Way under gunned for anything over 4 foot. Went out to the Bower ( Fairy Bower) in the morn, not that big but the water would vibrate occasionally for some unknown reason. While there the swell just kept jumping up and jumping up. By the afternoon very big and pumping, Some of my pro surfer mates were surfing the beach which was better conditions but I thought better of it due to inferior equipment so went back to The Bower . 50 extreme fear struck faces greeted me there and only 3 guys catching waves, Simon Anderson being one.The frozen in fear vibe was horrible which caused me to pull back on a big one, wow not like me so remedy was to paddle out to sea to collect my thoughts and chill out. After 15 mins or so decided to go back, happened to glance back and saw a huge bomb forming. Never ever seen before or since a wave break that far out to sea of the Bower but thought, well here now so give it a go. Kneeboarded top of the drop but realized the wave was smooth so jumped to my feet and made it to Bower where it closed down and out on me. After retrieving the board paddled back out to what was left of the devastation, Simon came up and said ” wow did you catch that big one” looked at the board and cried ” what !!!! on that heap of sht.” The freak wave I caught smashed over the breakwall over the footpath and washed the tables and chairs away from Faulty Bowers restaurant.

      • Got a graph on lifetime tax paid versus government receipts?
        It would be also be awesome to see the assumptions underlying that graph.
        If you aren’t paying a marginal rate of 47% (plus Medicare levy) you are clearly getting a free ride.

        • Dr Hate Boner! is that you?

          Didnt Gunnamatta point out in one of his rants everyone is making their money off government redistribuition anyway the other week. And that Doctors are recipients of all that Medicare largesse on the revenues inwards side? Or did I misinterpret that?

      • The Horrible Scott Morrison MP

        Not taking money away from people they earned working for 30 years does not constitute government support. Only a hateful leftist loser would try to con people with that narrative.

        • GunnamattaMEMBER

          Huh? Are we in Libertarian nutjob hour or something

          And are these big earners earning in some form of competitive market unaffected by government policy?

          Those financial services types are unaffected by government superannuation and pro tax avoidance, pro OK boomer policies?
          Are those lawyers making the big bucks completely unaffected by any form of government involvement? The property developers? The Building contractors? The Education providers? The doctors and the medical specialists? (Note to Mechanic – I think Dr Hate Boner is Coming ), are any of them unaffected (and made more profitable by) by the government mandated population ponzi? Or the governments pro money laundering for offshore generate corruption proceeds?

          Off the top of my head the only people in Australia genuinely making their own way in this world, and genuinely earning the wealth they get are about 10-15 thousand mining types, mainly in Northern West Australia, and mainly involved in iron ore and gas production – and they are mainly the beneficiaries of other governments elsewhere – and the few thousand family owned farming types – both beef sheep and grains, canola (and they are beneficiaries of other government stimulated demand too).

          All the rest of us are riding the bubble, and therefore are all playing government redistribution from one angle or another and have been for far more than 30 years – have a chat with flawse, with whom I generally agree on the subject.

          As for

          Not taking money away from people they earned working for 30 years does not constitute government support.

          lets recast it as only taxing away the money they have earned directly or indirectly government policy for 30 years……… .

          As far as I am concerned it is all the more reason to have a lifetime database for every last individual so they can see exactly how their pecuniary circumstances are directly/indirectly/or not at all reflecting any government decision. And that Artificial Intelligence that Coming (or Dr Hate Boner – thats a good term for the guy) stated would never affect his hallowed medical trough, is coming that much closer to making this possible every day! Oh yeah!

          • Gunna re the only ones genuinely earning you are 100% correct. For the last 60 year we have run a CAD. This tells us that, for that whole period, the A$ has been overvalued. My estimates over time suggested that probably averaged about 70% (That number can be argued abut but the simple fact can’t be) This means that exporters and import replacement industries have been taxed(tradables) at a rate of about 30% on their Gross Revenue. Note not net after expenses – GROSS on their total revenue. Earlier on many local manufacturers were compensated through tariffs and quotas and a few farmers, particularly dairy, were price guaranteed through legislation.
            The over-valuation of the dollar was a massive redistribution from rural, mining and regional centres to the cities. Out of this grew the massively non-productive grotesque, debt ridden, foreign owned,government/lawyer/retail/real estate economy that we have today.
            The problem with Ermo’s report from Spike above is that, in Australia 70% of voters live in Sydeny/Mebourne/Brisbane and their near satellite cities. So they would continue to vote for the present situation to be not only continued but levered up. Witness the current proposals for QE, MMT and Fiscal spending – all the protagonists screaming for urban spending. You won’t like it but it is a fact that the Climate extremists are on the same boat – we don’t need no damned mines or farms – we can just all live in the cities and be virtuous. They intend to vote all the farmers and miners out of existence and think there will be no economic cost or impact on their cosy city existence.
            This madness is not just political. The sheer idiocy of modern economics, all Skippy’s neo-liberals and their more extreme form MMT, are right into it. No illogicity is too much. 2+2 doesn’t equal 4 anymore. As someone said, it equals whatever you want it to be.

          • flawse, I think

            This madness is not just political. The sheer idiocy of modern economics, all Skippy’s neo-liberals and their more extreme form MMT, are right into it. No illogicity is too much. 2+2 doesn’t equal 4 anymore. As someone said, it equals whatever you want it to be.

            Reflects mainly one single thing. Credit only pulls future demand forward. Ever since the late 70s/early 80s credit has come to dominate everything in Australia – the house prices, and masking the end of import competing manufactures and import competing services. Virtually all economic and fiscal policy in that time has been about creative new ways to propagate debt, and all new business models have been about ways to ticket clip the issue or the repayment of that debt.

            But the limit to that as a plausible option is the lifetime of an individual prepared to go into debt, or of ticket clipping other individuals going into debt [preferably from a nice protected rent seeking position]. Now we are birthing future Australians who we are saddling with debt from the moment they are born, and drenching them with more every time they think about what they want to do, what they ‘have’ to do, and what they want for family. And the risk at that point must surely be (IMO) that some of those simply say ‘screw this’ and head elsewhere – which the Population Ponzi tells me is about replacing those (maybe only potential as yet) ‘unwilling fools’ with willing fools from elsewhere, and hoping that someone down the track can either jig the reset button, or that the creditors write it off before they come to us.

          • Flawse, I like your work on CAD etc. – too true.

            However, that rather emotional phrase ‘Climate extremists’ should be applied to the deniers as much as the ones you have in mind.

            I am happy to discuss climate with anyone who does not have property (fire, theft, flood) insurance or income protection or life ins. Also those without a financial interest in mining fossil fuels. Otherwise, the deniers are just vested interests hiding behind pseudo science and misinformation.

            There are these things in life called externalities. Go and look at the LaTrobe Valley or the Alberta tar sands to see the affects on rural people.

          • “Credit only pulls future demand forward. ”
            Gunna, the corollary to that, and the more important issue, is that the process is actually aimed at using up the planet s quickly as possible.

          • “I am happy to discuss climate with anyone who does not have property (fire, theft, flood) insurance or income protection or life ins. Also those without a financial interest in mining fossil fuels. Otherwise, the deniers are just vested interests hiding behind pseudo science and misinformation.”
            Absolutely!!!! But you left out farmers – surely they should b shot for their methane producing cows?
            Anyone who disagrees with you in any way should be sent to a re-education camp. No doubt about it. That’s entirely reasonable. Also anyone who uses of reason, science, maths and logic should be stoned by faithful Guardian readers. Anyone wo believes that other societies less well of than we are deserve to be able to make their own decisions should e in the gun. It’s great that you have such an open mind on the subject.

          • Thanks Flawse for the reference.

            I have been a large dairy farmer (twice) and still work closely with the dairy industry. I made a fair amount of money from farming which helps me be a self-funded retiree without having to worry about imputation credit refunds, etc.

            No farmer I know would not insure their assets, ie. lay off the risks. It is interesting to see how many farmers are now taking an interest in climate issues.

            I plead guilty to being a Guardian (and a range of other sources) reader. The merde in RupNews is too thick to bear.

          • Flawse and Gunna …

            Mining of non renewable resources is the apogee of capitalism, really …. then to make matters even more surreal you ascribe all agency to MMT when its administration was grounded in the fake Milton and then his replacement Krugman and Co.

            Now as a PK proponent I disagree with the neoliberal past, but don’t lay blame on MMT when its more your camps influence in all things governance and then don’t have the intellectual capacity to admit when your wrong.

            Please do go galt to some place and then see it wash over you sooner than later …

          • Its a curious adventure to see some ascribe agency to those without any, corporatist pushing an ideological PR tent revival all whilst privatizing everything not nailed down and where the market distributes its proceeds fairly.

            But yeah its all money crankery and lefties and nothing to do with decades of corporatist wankery with headers like the Citi memo, Powell memo, ALEC, and right wing think tanks or have you both forgotten that Koch file link where they openly state that getting young minds early gave the highest multipliers E.g. end up in positions of power and influence.

          • Forgot to add how does exporting raw unrenewable resources with no value added justify claims about being the only workers in Australia – earning – a living, its like Researchtime level stuff.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Well my advice is, start accumulating wealth now as in future the pension will be meager and hard to get anyhow. Was self funded retired when 37yo but bored and hated it and never wanted to retire again.
        btw would have been better off financially if id stayed bored as lost everything after retiring from retirement.

        • boom
          I’m not retired but my investment success approximates the situation you are describing. I always thought some idiot somewhere in government would try to do the right thing and have some principles. I have since learned it was never going to happen. Since then I have invested not TOO badly. However I’m with Nikola – still waiting for this mess to collapse in on itself.

          • We’ll have our own untouchables!
            No wonder the Indians love it here, they feel right at home.
            Aaahhhaaaahahahahah!!!! Please shoot me…

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            Mining, anyone on any income can save depending on how poorly they are prepared to live now for an unknown future which may negate those savings.

          • @boom

            That’s only if you have enough to cover basics. Unfortunately many don’t. At the same time, the worry caused by financial stress is equivalent to sleep deprivation and smashes the decision making abilities of those that are in that position.

            Guy Standing’s restructuring of the class system offers the best description of what many people are going through that I have found.
            https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/precariat-global-class-rise-of-populism/

            Thankfully I am now a salariat and can put money aside and plan for the future. I have been down the bottom and it is hard. A bit of work by me and some lucky breaks got me out. I’ve known, and still know others who either work harder than I do, or am brighter than I am, and are still at the lower part of the pyramid. I’m not one for religion yet “There but for the grace of (insert godhead here), goes I.” has passed my lips on more than one occasion.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Yeah, footsore has it right. I’m the first to bag out folk who waste all their spare cash on conspicuous consumption but that’s because I’ve seen too many who had not a cent left after paying the bills. It’s not their fault, it’s just the way the cards fell.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            footsie, put another way. Opposites attract so give the purse strings to the tight arse in the relationship. Everyone gets lucky breaks occasionally, have the wisdom to recognize them and take the bull by the horns when they arise. Years ago some Chinese were on $6/wk but still managed to save. Not saying everyone should save as no one the same and not prepared for the cost of family or relationship. We lost everything and had to go to Vinnies for food, if it hadn’t been for a derelict house it may have been an old car. Maybe I was blessed or cursed but most women leave under dire financial difficulties ( primeval instinct ) so the outcome is different for everyone but the fact still remains that anyone can save if they are prepared to take the sht that goes with it..
            Mining, agree to disagree.

          • Love the neoliberal aspect of this thread were everyone is – individually – responsible for their retirement and after years of drinking the cool aid about markets are now concerned about how it will all workout in the retirement years aka the surgical years – yes the private sector will bleed you dry in your most vulnerable years. Must be why 500K USians go BK every year regardless of age due to medical costs.

            So now wish to share that dark emotional state and have the whole thing blown up so they can have emotional resolution from the conflict of this state. Its so going postal …. chortle ….

      • I wouldn’t worry too much – those concessions are on borrowed time once budget deficits cruise through 5%. And yet more evidence that the global pension system is basically about to disintegrate. If this doesn’t send a chill down the spine of Gen X and the Millenials then nothing will. Very few retirees in this cohort will be taking two week tours down the Rhine every year:

        https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/21/investing/pensions-crisis-negative-rates/index.html

        “It’s an extraordinary situation,” said Shaktie Rambaran Mishre, chair of the Dutch pension federation, which represents about 200 pension funds. On Tuesday, the Dutch government was forced to propose an intervention ..

        Those people who’ve been dribbling on about ‘Japanification’ of Western economies are dreaming. We face a wave of money printing to meet all these egregious liabilities so that there is no ‘default’ – but the pensions themselves will buy a fraction of what they would have done owing to very high inflation. High living standards were brought forward by extreme debts and now … payback.

          • Yup, you could be forgiven for thinking it if you read the MSM widely enough. However, this is wrong-headed IMO because, while the underlying force in a credit bust is deflationary i.e. the money supply contracts sharply, such a contraction will be counteracted with extraordinary levels of money printing (one or a combination of QE, MMT, UBI etc).

            Assets prices (real estate and stocks, primarily) must be kept inflated at all costs – we are watching a microcosm of this unfold in straya right now – which means that a falling money supply must be prevented at all costs. Once the public gets to grips with the fact that the RBA (and other central banks) are destined to have the printers running 24/7 indefinitely inflation expectations will eventually swing. Certainly, any businessman would ask themselves why they should accept printed money for real goods and services.

            The risk of ‘deflation’ is definitely possible but only if policymakers sit on their hands and do nothing — current evidence does not support that as a likely outcome.

  5. The mechanics of negative interest rates in Australia. Will the banks:
    1. Only charge people with deposits over, say $250k or
    2. Apply an ‘account keeping fee’ to everyone of $5 per month?

    What would be the implication of both scenarios?

    • Account keeping fee already exists in the form of, well, ‘account keeping fee’.
      Comm’ bank charges ~4bucks/month.
      Another way to pay for this is to have more than i think 1000 bucks come into the account per month and to forfeit the interest on that money

    • I rang Perth Mint for some clarifications this week….. their money holding account is pooled in WBC, but isn’t subject to bail in…..! I didn’t ask about interest or acct keeping fees, but the girl didn’t mention them either even while thoroughly going over the costs & mechanics of the gold side. AA+ WA Govt guaranteed – but readily admitted it doesn’t mean rules can’t be changed…… She was all over her job & noted that she’d been fielding some super paranoid calls from all over the world in recent times…… hence very clear on what current rules are…

      • I wanted to buy some gold from the Perth Mint during the depth of the GFC. They told me it would take 90 days to fill the order. As I didn’t want to leave my money with them that long while the banking system was freezing up I had to decline. So don’t wait until the last moment if you’re thinking about buying some silver/gold as diversification.

          • Just to add, this was for a small order I wanted to place for about five 1oz. gold coins. Under normal circumstances (after GFC) you could buy this direct at the Mint counter for cash or would take about 2 weeks for delivery through airmail. But because of high demand during GFC delivery was 90 days. I haven’t bought in years so things might have changed.

    • our banks have very little tier one capital (bank multiples are 30 times)
      deposits are already low and even a tiny tiny run on banks (to move excess of $250k to another bank) may cause trouble

    • In Europe negative rates are just about at the point where it’s cheaper for large organisations like insurance companies to hold cash in a vault (high security and insured). Negative rates definitely risk a run on banks – particularly if applied to smaller deposits, which is why a cashless economy is of interest to the authorities. That said, the deposits can still be used to buy gold and silver coins so that would need to be made illegal too. All ‘leaks’ would need to be plugged …

      I don’t think rates can go negative and if they do you can start counting down to the end of the existing monetary system. It won’t take long. Global debt $255 trillion PLUS that again in unfunded liabilities (most of those Govt promises that cannot be kept). It’s all over bar the shouting.

        • Back then the dollar was still backed by gold, so it was an intrinsic part of the money system. Today this is no longer the case and the need for confiscation doesn’t really exist. Also the total of people that actually own some gold is so small that the result of confiscation would be negligible. This is what I keep telling myself anyway.

          • Yes, the explicit gold link back then vs the non-entity that it has become today is valid. The Govt would likely just nationalise mines over sending the police over to people’s homes to demand a few coins. If gold ownership were to become more widespread that may change.

            Oh, and gold exports would largely be banned as well as part of capital controls.

            The best way to own physical is to have it vaulted overseas – Switzerland, for choice. That way the gubbermint can do nothing to help themselves. The strayan gubbermint holds no sway over any other ‘cept perhaps a couple of Pacific Island nations.

          • boomengineeringMEMBER

            My thinking was that gold standard could suddenly return causing a skyrocketing of prices and confiscation. If you were to hide it they wouldn’t believe you didn’t have it on the other hand if overseas what would they do to procure it.
            Input sought.

          • Boom – Depending on how the moment unfolds, if no demands no worries PM can have it back. – Thoughts were to cash it at pawnbrokers when needed, or to just lose it. But Govt could always just invoice you for it or cash equivalent with extra loading, & then you have a choice…… Gold, Cash+ or Debtors Prison…… Psychopaths aren’t to be played with – And when Government is just another word for a whole coterie of them……. I ain’t going to bunk with Bubba!

          • Dom/Boom, there is an old saying: ‘If you don’t hold it, you don’t own it’. And: ‘Possession is 9/10 of the Law.’
            There are enough stories out there to make you reconsider storing with a third party, the gold business is quite dodgy. Who says the host country is willing to let go of your metals if the situation is dire. Laws can be changed on a dime, especially in an emergency. As it looks like that GFC 2.0 will again be a world wide phenomenon I don’t feel like you can say that anywhere is really safe. Switzerland used to be this bastion of fiscal rectitude but now their central bank is invested in the stock markets and buying Apple. It’s a difficult one to work out but in the end you have to do what makes you feel comfortable.

    • Interested PartyMEMBER

      I’m going to go with
      3. Gov allows negative gearing on savings accounts, till grey vote dies off and it ( policy ) can be reversed…if at all.

    • Geez the above would make me super paranoid if I was planning to keep my savings in cash in a bank. That’s why I’ve put it into an asset. I’m not convinced the banking system isn’t on the verge of implosion.

  6. The money quote from Peter Hartcher’s article in the links:

    It is a characteristic of Australia today that governments, state and federal, are failing as functional entities. They have allowed vital laws to lapse through inexcusable neglect. They snap into action only when the media expose a vacuum where there is supposed to be an operational core.

    The state, as an entity charged with conducting the rule of law, has been hollowed out. The people live under the assumption that their taxes, their elected representatives and their public servants are protecting them as the law guarantees. But in industry after industry, this has been exposed as a hoax.

    • Completely agree.

      And it is for this reason that government policies at all levels, the effect they have on demand, and their enforcement, and the effects that the enforcement has on Australia’s economic position, has to be central to the address of the economic malaise that Australia now finds itself in.

      For mine it also means that rebuilding what was once a very good public service (in terms of measuring what it did, backing up what it did with data, making that data freely available and so on) is central to addressing Australia’s economic malaise.

      Look at what we have (inter alia)

      – Superannuation laws which have become central to one of the worlds great tax avoidance systems, while laying no basis whatsoever for the pensions for future Australians.
      – Franking credits discussions giving payouts to people who dont pay tax to start with
      – a property regime designed to ensure that house prices only ever go up, and a negative gearing regime which costs billions and ensure that 94% of the money foregone from central revenues goes into previously built speculative activity rather than ‘constructing new homes’
      – a ‘tertiary education’ sector which front runs immigration demand for a ticket clip to create the worlds most expensive university courses
      -a government touting ‘complexity’ as a reason to look at ndustrial relations in a nation which has generationally low levels of industrial disputation and epic levels of underpayments, visa threats to foreign nationals working in Australia, and spectacular levels of casualisation in the workforce.
      – ‘Free Trade’ agreements signed sight unseen which deliver sweet FA benefit to Australians apart from cheaper imports.
      – a ‘private health insurance system’ which the government pays for, which is far less efficient than the public system, and which shunts anything it can into the public system at the first opportunity

      and on and on and on….

      • this is just beginning
        how about privatised monopolies giving owners world record profits
        sale of all commons to private owners – often foreign although that doesn’t man much – worlds rich elite has no national allegiance
        even old fashioned capitalism is getting destroyed
        destruction of private ownership – reduction of segments of ownership rights (e.g. degradation of property ownership rights via NIMBY and nanny state zoning and approval laws, degradation of shareholder ownership rights via poor reporting requirements and proxy rights)
        degradation of ownership rights via superannuation rules that limit people’s ability to control their own savings

    • They are functional entities; for the rent seekers who’ve captured them.
      Started with Keating. Policy became destructive. Tearing down Australian social democracy. Because it wasn’t in the interest of the 99% a sales pitch became necessary. Enter the PR era of politics. Former social democrats appealed to identity nothingism, conservatives to small business/family aspiration. In reality both served the 1% and themselves.
      Shorten was the first albeit modest break from this in about 40
      years. Which explains the absence of PR/indentityism in his campaign and focus on genuine correcting policy.

      • Sweep
        Of course I agree with you re Keating and your insight re the entry of ‘PR politics’ really crystallised someof my thoughts. However I still contend that the BS started way before Keating. Keating was faced with the problem of reform the economy or set the whole scheme into over-drive and added a rocket to the ugly debt contraption. Of course that was the easy way out so he took it with unmatched enthusiasm brilliantly backed by the Banks, who would profit enormously, and Treasury who were responsible for the mess. I don’t know who started it – time wise it goes back to Menzies et al. I remember disliking Billy McMahon with unbridled passion.

        • Neoliberalism is just a rewarming of old fashion Laissez-faire with a side of corporatism and classical liberalism … not to be confused with the bastardized variant FDR used to push his economic and social policies through …

          What exactly is neoliberalism, and where did it come from? This volume attempts to answer these questions by exploring neoliberalism’s origins and growth as a political and economic movement.

          Although modern neoliberalism was born at the “Colloque Walter Lippmann” in 1938, it only came into its own with the founding of the Mont Pèlerin Society, a partisan “thought collective,” in Vevey, Switzerland, in 1947. Its original membership was made up of transnational economists and intellectuals, including Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, George Stigler, Karl Popper, Michael Polanyi, and Luigi Einaudi. From this small beginning, their ideas spread throughout the world, fostering, among other things, the political platforms of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan and the Washington Consensus.

          The Road from Mont Pèlerin presents the key debates and conflicts that occurred among neoliberal scholars and their political and corporate allies regarding trade unions, development economics, antitrust policies, and the influence of philanthropy. The book captures the depth and complexity of the neoliberal “thought collective” while examining the numerous ways that neoliberal discourse has come to shape the global economy.

          Science-Mart: Privatizing American Science – by Philip Mirowski

          So flawse just about every CEO or C-suite seat warmer and politician, lest we forget main stream economist out there, that grew up and cut their teeth too get where they are at [meritocracy] – is just a reflection of above.

          Lmmao just recently on Bloomie a billionaire stated that investors would go on – strike – if’n certain politicians were elected …. that’s how democracy of money works [Gresham’s law] … cough liberal democracy.

          Its just so Elizabethan, wealthy businessman takes wife and maid to bed – see Rusa, maid gets knocked up, maid has no rights or bargaining power let alone veracity of status by monies, church is moral police and jury, so knocked up maid has to publicly atone at church by standing next to door way and cop it sweet without ever fingering the wealthy businessman or his wife …. because that would go very badly and she would end up hitting the streets or worse …. because markets [tm] …. rim shot … and then some bang on about society et al …

      • Shorten was very short on actual homework and maths. However I am of the opinion that REAL reform, not just a bit of easy window dressing like Shorten’s proposals, are actually possible. As I pointed out above, 70 % of the population are not going to vote for reform that would cost them – even with the knowledge that they were sentencing their children to penury and foreign domination. Add in the fact that the total city orientation of a corrupted media would be reinforcing their self-entitlement at every moment.

          • proof It’s owworse than that. Mot of the population is nw complicit in this. Nobody is willing to give up anything. We will allow othrs to be given more ‘stuff’ as long as it does not cost us anything. You bloody try it and out you goat the next election! At least, so far, we are waiting for elections.

        • 70% of people vote with full understanding that they have no real choice but at the best their vote may help avoid a particular small issue they are trying to prevent
          our democracy is not real, but fake two party fake choice system created by aristocracy in England hundreds of years ago to make plebs thing they are in charge

    • That quote is depressing because it’s obviously true and there doesn’t appear to be any public impetus to force political change. It’s another reason why I doubt we’ll ever see decent AML enforcement; why we will never see white collar crime properly policed or punished.

      It’s infuriating. Time to burn it down and start again.

  7. This Westpac thing is so shady. 11 billion brought into Australia with no record of its origins because of 2 seemingly independent software ‘glitches’ that deleted all records of the transfer.

    The probability of 2 independent software errors producing this outcome is totally non credible. It seems the more likely story was that Westpac had a good earner acting as a criminal organization…

    What does that say about the morals and ethics of the people running that bank?

    • Lindsay Maxstead and other long servicing members of WBC board plus Hartzler need to go. Very unusually, I agree with Terry McCrann on this. Maxstead is playing us for fools. Has he already done the sweetheart deal with Josh to let them get away with it?

      • Joshy boy isn’t in the loop. Super mate Maxstead’s political protection hasn’t worked for him on this one.

        The AFR article discussed how AUSTRAC is now part of the national intelligence community.
        This makes me wonder if that 11 billion was mixed up in some real national security stuff. How much of it was CCP United Front linked? Was it related to Huang Xiongmao/Crown/political influence?

        The crony capitalist mate$$$ might have run up against a crowd bigger/badder/more connected than they are this time, i.e. the defense/intelligence community.

    • I’m surprised you’re surprised. The following has been the modus operandi for banks everywhere for some time:

      If the banks toed the line, crossed every t and dotted every I all the time, money-making opportunities would pass them by and their competitors would make out like bandits. Best just press ahead with whatever you please and pay the fine if you get caught. This has been going on for decades because it makes financial sense to do it this way. In the US the fines can total several billion dollars and the banks still think it’s worth it — but here the fines are more like a half a day’s profits. Until executives go to jail it will continue. The bankers are central to ‘economic vibrancy’ and they give pollies lucrative positions after their careers are finished so there is almost no chance of any of them doing time.

    • Ever transaction is recorded in the database, even deletion of record. Deletion is not a glitch, but require very specific knowledge of the system to remove all records.

      • Agree strongly with this. A lot of tables are affected, and you need to know how they link up to delete records (not even thinking about db transaction logs).

        You can’t just go deleting lines in complex systems, as the validations get the sh1ts.

    • In my view CEOs and senior executives are paid outrageous salaries. But those salaries should be a reflection of risk they take. If senior company executives went to jail when issues like this were uncovered then they would run their companies a lot more ruthlessly to make sure stuff like this isn’t going on.

      • Exactly. The AUSTRAC claim specifically cited management and board indifference. They didn’t give a sh*t. Too busy shoveling sub prime IO mortgages out the door.

  8. NEW ZEALAND …

    … The long – term severely dysfunctional Christchurch City Council …

    … Tell The Press what you know …

    Secrets and lies: Will the public ever know what Christchurch City Council was hiding? … Dominic Hare … The Press / Stuff

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/117600531/secrets-and-lies-will-the-public-ever-know-what-christchurch-city-council-was-hiding

    A major investigation has revealed a culture of secrecy among top leaders at Christchurch’s council to keep negative information out of the news. But the public may never know what was hidden from them. DOMINIC HARRIS reports.

    It is a badge of dishonour the Christchurch City Council will be embarrassed and ashamed to have to wear.

    A 10-month investigation into how the authority handles public information has uncovered a culture of secrecy, deception and cover-ups.

    Perhaps most alarmingly, there is evidence to suggest some of the council’s most senior staff deliberately altered reports and hid negative information from councillors, the mayor and the public to protect its image. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Do you know more?
    Email [email protected]

    • i think Stellar can do 2000 tx/s which is 172M tx/day. faster hardware and it will go faster than that. I don’t understand how mining is still a thing. shrug.

      I’m short eth/neo/ltc/eos/btc/xrp

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      I Just listened to that whole speech and although I agree with most of Cohens positions he really is an advocate of rule by an establishment technocracy rather than rule by the people through Democracy.

      He talks about social media as the “Greatest propaganda tool in history” and how social media has corrupted the western Democracies of today but makes no mention or acknowledgment what so ever about how this is just another extension of an establishment Propaganda/public relations regime that has been corrupting Democracy for over a century by Plutocrats across the world.
      With the support of people with an entitled to rule mentality just like him.

      https://youtu.be/NNrDej7aXMs

      • Pretty much my thoughts too. If the MSM had been doing their job there’d be no vacuum to fill & trust abound. But there’ll always be someone at the extremes that need pulling up – Including the pretentious MSM!

      • I was skeptical about SBCohen’s intentions and now that at least two person are confirming this, the desire to see the video has gone.
        I find partial truth articles to be more of a narrative control in the form of deflection from the most important and damaging side and direction towards a narrative that can either be better controlled or is the least damaging.
        A propaganda shill, if you like.

      • Good Grief what sort of imaginary democracy are you operating off, some direct democracy variant where “individuals [tm]” vote on everything. Lmmao considering the points about social media that would seem ludicrous, why, because how easy it is to screw peoples heads on backward regardless of – facts – and then group dynamics take over.

        What if a vote determined the world was flat all would have to live with it …. chortle …

        Did any of you get that the social media technoglibertarians are the technocrats in this paradigm and what they are fighting against is democratic regulation …. shezzzzz …

        • ErmingtonPlumbing

          I don’t trust the leadership of either faction of the neoliberal technocracy.

          “intellectuals are more totalitarian in outlook than the common people. Most of them are perfectly ready for dictatorial methods, secret police, systematic falsification of history etc. so long as they feel that it is on ‘our’ side.”

          • Intellectuals …. groan … what a dog whistle and whats this royal we shtick about commoners or are you the sort that bundles vast swaths of humanity into tidy little pigeonholes to forward some half baked ideology EP.

            Your argument is reminiscent of calls for ignorance right out of the bible aka Agnotology (formerly agnatology) is the study of culturally induced ignorance or doubt. How that been working IMO.

  9. https://bhauction.com/auction/tokyo-terrada-january/lots/432-r
    A variation of my Datsun 240z is listed at $900-$1.12M.
    Which makes the time and effort I’m putting into polishing 1 of mine up worth it.
    https://imgur.com/a/DgOgvCY

    Last owner had let it sit for 8+ years and it had deteriorated sadly. I recently got it running again and took it for a drive around my backyard. The auto is slipping due to low transmission fluid (I might keep it auto for the Mrs to drive). Got 3 others in manual already.
    https://photos.app.goo.gl/mxw2zXmQ6Ta7QJB69

    • Noice! Don’t mind a Z car. I spent this morn giving my Audi S3 a decent bath. Bought myself a few more Bowden’s products (wax etc). Bought the drop bear cloth and had a good chuckle at the packaging/instructions. https://www.bowdensown.com.au/products/microfibre/drop-bear

      “We’ve always searched for the highest quality and most beautiful materials to use in our specialist detailing cloths. With word out on how the incredible Drop Bear fur was, we commissioned a local university group to track down this elusive creature and get a sample of it’s most luscious fur. They went deep into the Queensland bush with the Drop bears favourite delicacy, female Scandinavian back-packers as the bait. From this small research group, only one female back-packer was to return, thankfully with a small fur sample embedded deep in her fingernails.”

      Care instructions advise “DO NOT dry outside, as it can attract drop bears to your home”

      Nice to see a company with a sense of humour. Also they are Aussie.

  10. This broght me up short yesterday
    https://sentinel.ga.gov.au/#/
    So much fire , so early in the season.It seems like Climate change has stepped up a gear.
    The accepted story is that the world emissions have reached 400ppm above pre industrial levels, but this report from May 2016
    at the BoM atmoshphere measuring station at Cape Grim in Tassie, tells a different story.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/confirmed-southern-hemisphere-co2-level-rises-above-symbolic-400-ppm-milestone-20160515-govfq7.html
    “It’s not going to go back below 400 ppm for a very long time unless we get very good at mitigation,” Mr Krummel said.Global CO2 levels were running at roughly 280 ppm up until about 1850 when they started to take off. (See chart below).
    Climate scientists, such as David Karoly at Melbourne University, note that when other greenhouse gases, such as methane, are included, the situation is even bleaker.
    The so-called carbon dioxide-equivalent level that takes in the full global warming impact is now about 485 ppm.

    That was 3 and a half yeas ago and emissions have continued to rise snce then. We are farther down the Climate Change rabbit hole than we thought.

    • I have this suspicion that the increased CO2 in the atmosphere may make people on the ground less intelligent, like high levels of CO2 in a closed room does. It would explain a lot.

          • Presumably he’s hoping she’ll go over there and get disappeared so he doesn’t have to listen to her any more.

          • ^ ^ ^
            And yet, we refuse to buy the Nike from the SE Asia sweat shops where children without MSM voice are used by…

          • Trout à la Crème

            ‘Adults keep saying we owe it to the young people, to give them hope. But I don’t want your hope. I don’t want you to be hopeful. I want you to panic. I want you to feel the fear I feel every day’
            Fear and panic, so rational and objective. Such a great place to make decisions and to ‘act’ from. But I mean if anyone criticizes what she says it’s almost as if someone is breaking into your home and abusing *your* children while you’re being totally rational and objective.

        • I was just curious. It’s been bugging the [email protected] out of me lately. I’m a stickler for consistency and I can’t stand hypocrisy.

          Just because you’re brown (or yellow) doesn’t excuse you from doing your bit for the environment.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        We’ll see tomorrow whether that smoke has impacted my ability to beat my mates up to Terry Hills as have had to cut my training down to only 1 lap of North Head hill. Cant be good, heavy breathing in dense smoke.

    • The most concerning thing that I have read on climate change recently is that the IPCC models do not account for any greenhouse gasses that are released in the feedback loops. It only accounts for those that are released from human activity. The massive amounts of greenhouse gasses being released from the fires are not accounted for. As the permafrost melts and greenhouse gasses are released, that hasn’t been accounted for.

      A second worrying thing is that, in what can only be called naive optimism, scientists who study this have not been looking at the consequences from the upper predictions. This is because it was thought that governments would act on the advice that they provided and the world would be kept to the lower limits of 2 degrees Celsius warming.

      As has been stated again, and again, and again, the science of climate change is not new. If you read Carl Sagan’s 1997 book ‘Billions and Billions’ he writes about it using the 4 degree upper limit for a 2100 worst case scenario. He lays out what needs to be done. He lists the political and vested interest roadblocks. In the past 22 years all that has changed is that we have improved our knowledge of the problem and it is now moving from a problem of tomorrow to a tangible problem of today.

      We have all really f*cked up big time on this one.

      • As has been stated again, and again, and again, the science of climate change is not new.

        Undoubtedly, at some point in the future, lots of people are going to start saying “why didn’t anyone say anything”.

      • I will quote you in a post earlier this year, as well as Nate Hagens, here I go:

        According to Nate, 90% of global production is done by machinery. According to Footsie – the machinery is dead, it needs a power source to come alive. That power source was and still is predominantly fossil fuels. However burning fossil carbon is causing a mass extinction event.

        We are literally automating ourselves into oblivion as a species.

        We are daft.

  11. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vBNSOwUauGc&feature=youtu.be

    Published on Nov 15, 2019
    Are global equity markets approaching a critical threshold? Sven Henrich is the chief market strategist for NorthmanTrader – a firm that uses technical indicators to track global equity markets. Henrich argues that with or without complete central bank capitulation, markets are in for a year-end rally that will not be able to sustain or surpass its new highs. He compares the final months of 2019 to the final months of 2007, pointing out the critical divergence in the Fed’s ability to lower interest rates further – having less than half the wiggle room than the 500 basis points they had in 2007. Filmed on October 9, 2019 in London. For more of Henrich’s research visit https://northmantrader.com

  12. There is a growing feeling, among those who have the responsibility of managing large economies, that the discipline of economics is no longer fit for purpose. It is beginning to look like a science designed to solve problems that no longer exist.

    A good example is the obsession with inflation. Economists still teach their students that the primary economic role of government—many would insist, its only really proper economic role—is to guarantee price stability. We must be constantly vigilant over the dangers of inflation. For governments to simply print money is therefore inherently sinful. If, however, inflation is kept at bay through the coordinated action of government and central bankers, the market should find its “natural rate of unemployment,” and investors, taking advantage of clear price signals, should be able to ensure healthy growth. These assumptions came with the monetarism of the 1980s, the idea that government should restrict itself to managing the money supply, and by the 1990s had come to be accepted as such elementary common sense that pretty much all political debate had to set out from a ritual acknowledgment of the perils of government spending. This continues to be the case, despite the fact that, since the 2008 recession, central banks have been printing money frantically in an attempt to create inflation and compel the rich to do something useful with their money, and have been largely unsuccessful in both endeavors.

    We now live in a different economic universe than we did before the crash. Falling unemployment no longer drives up wages. Printing money does not cause inflation. Yet the language of public debate, and the wisdom conveyed in economic textbooks, remain almost entirely unchanged.

    https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/12/05/against-economics/

    Gunna you might like the painting …

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      ”a ritual acknowledgment of the perils of government spending”

      That the Tories embrace this “ritual acknowledgment” is no betrayal of their Political base.
      But to see it embraced by the supposedly “Left leaning” political parties of the West fills me with disgust and loathing for this traitorous leadership that has hijacked working and middle class democracy.

  13. ErmingtonPlumbing

    “If we get Trump (through impeachment) and end up with Pence it will be worse”

    44.39mins in up to the end is a great Q&A with Chris Hedges and his audience.
    He Gives it to the Christian right & ANTIFA!
    It’s a little bit depressing his view that victory against Plutocracy may not be possible but is equally inspiring when he talks about the True freedom that comes from fighting it anyway.

    https://youtu.be/GeE5WnTUsF8

    • I just don’t understand how people are falling for this debacle. I look at CNN, MSN, ABC etc and see this definitive proof of Trumps crimes.

      I then look at the Fox and then the ACTUAL hearings themselves and its a ludicrous comedy of farcical proportions – Trump is going to smash 2020 into the stratosphere.

      It is mind blowing watching how much people are being manipulated – the ambassadors have both fully admitted they have zero evidence beyond “vibe” – their star witness has just been outed as colluding directly with the whistle blower, the Bidens have just been announced in an indictment of $150 million in bribery and theft of public money in Ukraine.

      Its seriously getting worse by the day – Obama has been directly implicated in directing the surveillance of Trump and the investigation into the Steele dossier is about to be released which ties the DNC directly with criminal activities – they are going to jail – but its all Trump.

      The left is going to be a train wreck when this is all said and done and the media is 100% responsible.

  14. Interesting observation…Next door to me there is the classical suburban develoment – 3 houses purchased and demolished, now 4-5 large townhouses/semidetached houses are being built. Through the week theres the usual building ‘crew’ working on it, Aussie contractors. Now, every Saturday there is a crew of Chinese workers (speaking in mandarin) working, but not present through the week. I’ve spied the ?owner/’developer’ through the week, who is also ethnic chinese.

    Looking at build quality, would avoid like hte plague. poor flashings, rough edges. Wont be surpsied if they’re leaking once completed.

    • I see similar. Oh God. Its like Graebers bullshit jobs, but in the building industry. These will be torn down in the end. All the resources, energy inputs and labour. What a bloody waste.

      • Yeah, that was one of the big differences I fieriest noticed when I came to Australia, in the UK I’d literally never seen a house younger than a hundred years old being knocked down and rebuilt.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Every. Single. One of those in my area are like that. Me and Jack like to peer through the wire fence and see who can come up with the most faults in five minutes. He always wins because he’s an expert on things at ground level that need p1ssing on.

      I think I told the story when me and Jack were playing that game when a young couple walked up with their dog. After some mutual bum-sniffing we started talking about the build and I pointed out some rubbish quality. Didn’t know they had bought one off the plan did I…

      • Gold. I was looking at a house under construction once when a bloke on a pushie stopped by. Mostly I can’t help myself and just blurt out my honest thoughts, even to complete strangers. I was shaking my head at the fact that people could build a structure using sticks and cardboard and then having the temerity to call that a house. Pushie didn’t look too happy, of course it was his house I was rubbishing.

      • I’ve seen a few of his vids, sometimes when being critiqued by minimailst investors (meet kevin on YT). Might watch a bit more now I’m consdiering some home renos haha

  15. I’m not affected by the smoke from the fires at the moment, but I thought I’d share some hard won knowledge as a veteran of China’s air pollution. If you think there is a reasonable chance that in future you may end up with a week plus a year of smoke affecting the quality of the air you breath and you have the money for it, I suggest buying some quality air filters (you need to ensure that the machine will fit the size of the rooms they will be used in). I used a BlueAir (most likely the 205) and two other air filter hacks (it was a start up by a bunch of young foreigners who wanted to make clean air affordable to everyone in China) 24 hours at full throttle for several years. I sold my filters before coming back to Australia but I did consider bringing them back in case of prolonged smoke issues from bush fires. I also used a particle counter to measure how air borne particulate matter was in my apartment.

    Not being able to breath clean air is horrible and has a real negative mental health impact.
    https://www.blueair.com/
    https://smartairfilters.com/cn/en/
    https://www.kaiterra.com/en/index/

  16. The Traveling Wilbur

    And your thought exercise for the evening: Imagine an Australia where Uber arrived as played out, but student working visa and visa with work-rights for positions paying under 85k didn’t exist – what of inflation and unemployment then?

  17. Went to one auction today. One bidder, passed in. Encouraging stuff.

    CBR reporting 67% cleared so probably low 60s. Some expensive sounding sales in amongst the mix though. Hmm. Unfortunately while I don’t think CBR market is exactly booming, it’s ticking along and prices seem to be bobbing up a bit.

      • Ah crushed dreams… delicious… I eat crushed dreams sprinkled on my breakfast cereal. Sometimes my own dreams.

        This couple in the article actually comes across as not too annoying / entitled. Too bad for them… But I’m happy with the further encouraging auction result!

        • I’d feel the same if I was you. Without more fuel on the bin fire I don’t know how prices can keep screaming up. But places near me in Sydney (Five Dock) sold for $1.4 and $1.6m not even good houses or big blocks. Mental.

          • proofreadersMEMBER

            The world’s gold standard money laundering system, the immigration ponzi, a happy clappy (and best ever) federal government, a happy clappy RBA championing ZIRP and other monetary experiments on the populace, a climate to die for (literally), a country lacking morality … (need I go on) … guarantee housing prices to the moon (and even further).

          • Australia has a psyche, a collective paradigm, a zeitgeist (my most hated word) with regards to property – its a sure bet and will always go up (eventually).

            A temporary decline in prices over the past 18 months has no effect on that collective thought pattern – and it will not change without a deep, prolonged, painful recession.

            Its absolutely coming. Going to be glorious.

            I know people worth millions, property coming out their ears – can’t afford to eat. Its so common people simply do not realise it.

            Its everywhere – borderline poverty with millions in “assets”….strong air quotes.

          • Without foreign buyers I cannot see prices going up much more. Even at the mad debt to income levels our banks approve, there is not much headroom left to lend within the law and make mortgages bigger. Interest rates effectively at zero.Wages will be stagnant as the population ponzi continues. We are in for stagnation for a few years without an external event… and that external event might the the government selling citizenship to wealthy foreigners….

          • Ok here are the properties.
            Busy Busy main road.
            https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-five+dock-132301106
            At best 400sqm and $1.49M seriously a joke.

            and $1.66M for a semi (nicer looking)
            https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-five+dock-132228154

            But also on a busy road (not so much a main road). I can’t believe people would pay that much for either property to be honest.

            Price of this 1 is withheld.
            https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-five+dock-132266830
            Much quieter street and even has an original laundry! My word..:P

            I’m guessing it was $1.5-$1.6M but could be wrong (shared drive with next door).

            I can only chalk this up to the metro line going in nearby in a few years. But the whole amenity of the area is going to be destroyed.. shame. Five Dock was a nice pocket.

      • Grew up in Melbourne.

        Travelling through the city the worst traffic was a Friday night with footy on at the MCG and a concert on or tennis.

        Not today – Sunday, 4pm nothng on – grid lock from Westgate to Clifton Hill. What the actual ?!!!!

        This city is totally finished.

    • A2 what’s the Canberra market like? Was there earlier in the week and amazed at the number of new apartments going up. At least 50 there and the surrounding suburbs.

      • Capital Appreciation

        I’ll jump in before Arrow. Some properties are selling ok, others not. If you look at yesterday’s auction results, there’s one agency that reveals the price of one or two, but withholds the price on the rest because the price wasn’t that great. You might as well keep the house price boom fairytale going as long as you can. Houses doing better than apartments, with the latter going up everywhere but prices going the other way. A lot of people talking recession and the APS seems to be tightening a bit from what I’m hearing. Talk of jobs freezes at some departments, but most seem to be locking in a 2% pay rise (through determination rather than negotiating enterprise agreement). Build quality seems to be a growing concern too, and rightly so. There’s a relatively new (5 yr old) townhouse development which is now with the lawyers trying to get the insurance fund to cough up the rectification costs for the subsidence and cracking throughout the complex. This place is no high rise, it’s only ground and an upper floor, but built over an excavated car park underneath.

        • 😁👍 I was just about to post “better ask CA about the Canberra market, knows it better than anyone!”

          Agree with the above. I am not a great barometer for the broader market because I only follow houses I might want to buy (ie mid range large houses in a few southern and Woden suburbs). Those houses were definitely dropping last year (when the Canberra broad medians were essentially flat). They are a bit more uppish now, but as CA says, it depends upon the house. Some are selling well over what they should, with multiple bidders at auction. Others which still seem nice have zero or one bidder and go for more reasonable prices or sit for some time. I’d call it “balanced” and there are some opportunities to pay a “reasonable” price as well as plenty of scope to pay too much.

          Slightly depressing compared to six months ago which was definitely a buyers market but hey. I’m now looking actively (having resolved a few employment uncertainties) and will probably buy as soon as we see the right house for a “reasonable” price.

          • I should add: a few auctions I went to in early spring we’re quite frenzied but they have been much quieter in the last few weeks. You could say it’s cooling off but to be fair I don’t go to enough auctions to really be able to say if it’s a pattern. One thing for sure – there is more stock on market now though.

        • Also, from the Fin Review from a couple of weeks ago: average size of apartment built in Australia in 2018-19 was 129 sqm, in NSW was 114 sqm but in the ACT …. 102sqm. = dogbox capital.

    • All factual info there. Which makes it insufferable for the blue haired snowflakes.
      What most people, unfortunately, seem to have forgotten is that you can push Caucasians around for a long time, but when they finally get angry millions of people die.
      What is happening now in Europe, the US and even here in Australia is overwhelming though, I sincerely hope it’s not too late.

    • Interesting, surprised the teacher didn’t tell him to stop. 🙂 I don’t consider myself by any means but it does raise some challenging questions that certainly make you feel a bit uncomfortable.

  18. I’ve been taking mrs. Didi for driving lessons down around some new Estates in 2443 One observation is that there are about 4 completed houses that are look like specs they were for sale. Maybe they’re sold now, but the signs of come down. There are no new starts and there are also no partial builds. So you got a new estate with a few houses totally complete but nothing in the pipeline. Just wondering what the builders who worked on those houses are doing now. Possibly nothing it’s only a small estate, but I’ll be interested to popping to some of the other property developments around and see if similar things are happening because this in terms of construction employment will be a real Cliff’s Edge. It’s not tapering its just stopped.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      That’s how it starts. I spotted the same thing in WA while the papers were still spruiking hard. Complete and utter standstill.

      That’s when the unpleasantness started…

    • Hate to rain on the parade (I really do mean that, I wish RE would turn to merde) but in my area 3084 they still can’t seem to be fast enough knocking down perfectly good, decent, 60’s homes and building huge flimsy mansions within 1 metre of the boundary all around. Still happening right now, I know my life will be acoustically invaded by two different demolition crews in my street tomorrow morning at 7:00 am. There seems to be no end

    • But, but, but, but look at the bright side of it: billions of men in remote areas will be able to replace real human interaction and post their naked feet overlooking the picturesque background on their facialbook.

      Astronomy?
      Those ‘horoscope’ dudes are a fraud anyway

  19. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    A divergence in the numbers this week. REA giving a 36% reading on auction clearance rates in QLD whilst noting there were 947 private treaty sales for the week. Of course, the sales data reflects the bump of 6 weeks to 2 months ago when everyone got excited about the drop in interest rates. The auction numbers are reflecting the reality that the economy is catcus. Numberwang over the coming couple of weeks will be very interesting.

    On a side note, my tracking of house opens and auctions in Toowoomba showed a big bump this weekend. Double what was occurring 2 months ago, and at the top of the numbers I have seen over the last 18 (TM) months.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      I have just got off the page myself on reading that article and had exactly the same thought!

      He is right, Keats has gone soft as he has run out of people to excoriate

    • I don’t know about you guys but personally I value the truth more than anyone’s fiction.
      If something is going to happen I want to be prepared for it and China is something that for most people is still going to happen.
      China is like a giant tsunami, it’s coming, it doesn’t care, in the least bit how you feel about it, it’s coming. If it’s coming your way than you need to make preparations, you need to understand just how out gunned you are and make preparations. Only a complete fool stands on the beach and screams “bring it on”
      Being ready for something requires that one does the calculus of:
      What if they win the first battle?
      Do I want the first battle to be the last battle?
      What needs to be preserved, what can realistically be preserved?
      What needs to be surrendered? what can we afford to lose?
      Today’s Aussie economy depends on China for its survival, All the BS jobs, all the MB gripes, all the excess valuations (for what?) are all just symptoms, the underlying complaint is China.
      We’re F’ed with China, we’re F’ed without China.
      I suspect this is the realpolitik as seen through Keating’s eyes
      Once you acknowledge that’s it’s too late to go around the Tsunami the question becomes:
      How do you steer a path through the Chinese Tsunami?
      Personally I say that Keating is just a few steps ahead of most and already knows what must be done to survive.

      • We were fine before China and we will be fine without China again. But we will need to make significant change in the process. Screw the CCP. As our friends in Hong Kong have expressed they are not happy with them and nor should they be.

        • why so emotional?
          Emotions are the key fogging agent obscuring reality.

          We were fine so far because we chose to side with commercial side of the world. Drifting allegiance from commercial to ideological side is not going to bring “fine” in days to come…

        • well said Gav, saved me the trouble of tapping it out.
          The sooner we grit our teeth and get the tariff wall up, the sooner we can rebuild our economy.
          Then we change whinging about the current crop of oligarchs to the new crop of industrialists, if they actually turn out to be different people (I doubt it).
          And the farmers get screwed again, that seems to be a constant.

          • I suspect it is already too late for Tariffs to work their magic. Unfortunately you must have competitive local industry or tariffs become nothing more than import taxes.
            The perverse thing is that Tariffs often disadvantage specifically those industries that you had planned to advantage through the introduction of said tariffs. Imagine we want to build our Agriculture industry and put tariffs on the importation of fertilizer, however the local industry is incapable (or just uninterested in making up the difference…all that happens is that fertilizer prices for farmers go up and they make the logical choice to reduce production .
            Over the years I’ve seen tariffs F’up far more industries than they ever helped.

        • We were fine before China and we will be fine without China again
          Probably true BUT this statement also suggests that China gives a rats whether we thought we were OK without them. What happens if they could care less what you (or any other Aussies for that matter) think? What happens if they simply conduct themselves in a manner that suits….well themselves?
          Do you honestly believe the Germany asked the average Polish person if they thought Poland was well run before they invaded?
          Put bluntly what you think is completely irrelevant, if it’s not part of their calculation than it shouldn’t be a part of your calculation. This is what I see written between the lines when reading any of PK’s recent speeches.

          • Well that’s when war starts. I believe China is already positioning itself for regional dominance, hence why we need to push back.

          • Ah No, war only starts if you have even the slightest chance of winning otherwise everyone needs to find a solution. China understands this, look at their 9 dash line, that has absolutely nothing to do with some old map they found and everything to do with the calculus of gaining advantage against neighbors that are powerless to resist.
            Australia won’t be that easy to bend to their will, but I suspect that it’ll game-over regionally before they put the boot in locally. By that stage does it still matter? and who does it matter to?
            As I said before, I suspect PK has moved on from that which troubles you. He is looking a little further down the track at how the game continues, if you assume Chinese East Pacific regional dominance. This is regional realpolitik it has nothing to do with an average Aussies wish list but everything to do with the manners in which the players are constrained to move.

  20. https://youtu.be/WRyyxxYdqcc
    Star Trek has become woke. Or a joke. Last time I watched it was the Voyager series. My parents were Star Trek fans and used to bring home new episodes from the video store so I’d watch it with them.

    It was always cleverly written and would challenge your thinking, but this. This new stuff as the commentator says reminds me of Austin Powers.

    Where is this chit coming from? It’s like everything has been infected by wokeness now. To the point that they surely must be losing audiences but continue on anyway?

    • What are you worried about gold. Central banks only keep it as tradition don’t cha know?
      Ben Shalom Bernanke himself said so. He wrote an interesting book after the 2008-2009 crisis, ‘The Courage To Act.’
      His fingers must have gone numb from pressing CTRL+P day after day, he might even had to suffer some blisters, but he courageously kept going the little digger. He saved the world he did.
      Probably gets the Medal of Honour for taking the risk of life above and beyond the call of duty.
      These are the people that we are supposed to look up to and respect.

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      With 43% of the Indonesian population under 25 WTF are they all going to do when 100% of the countries “productivity” can be achieved by 20% of the working age population.
      Political time bombs ready to go off everywhere.
      20th century wars killed over 100 million.
      I worry that in this century we could be looking at Billions slaughtered.

    • “The money placed in the custody of the banker is to all intents and purposes, the money of the banker, to do with it as he pleases. He is guilty of no breach of trust in employing it. He is not answerable to the principal if he puts it into jeopardy, if he engages in haphazardous speculation….”

      Holyheck!

      • The only thing that causes confusion is the continuing deception of referring to them as “deposits” as that word has plenty of quite natural implications that most people understand.

        We would have a lot more clarity and sensible regulation of bankers if bankers were prohibited from using the word deposit.

        They should call them what they are.

        Unsecured investments at call.

        When people understand they merely have a bunch of unsecured investments at call the fact that they don’t get paid much interest is unsurprising. If you are not prepared to surrender the ability to withdraw your investment at will why should a banker pay you much interest.

        More importantly why should your investment at call be guaranteed by anyone?

        There is a very simple way place for the public to deposit and ensure that it is 100% safe. The central bank. It does not need to pay any interest. That is 100% safe will be enough especially when guarantees on investments in the shonky banks are removed.

    • But, but there’s no equivalent to a full 20l Jerry Can in your boot that could take you another 200km. I’m also looking forward to morons trying to explain weekly (or 3-weeks for that matter) electricity price cycle.

    • The new Tesla truck has a range of 500 miles while the new Roadster is 900 miles. I can drive from Melbourne to Sydney and almost back again.

      The anti-Elon crowd are some of the dumbest crumbs I have come across – they are crawling all over this website.

    • To plug in your 30kW batt pack into an outlet from a willing neighbour, if one is lucky, will get one 10A at best which makes it 2.4kW/hour charge or >13hrs to full.In real life, 1hr charge at max outlet power will give about 1hr limp movement. Not sure the car insurance would cover a potential fire hazard that may come from thy neighbour’s aging electricity wires being loaded max current.

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      I love the way Noam Chomsky just soberly calls out all this “Russiagate” Shyte for the distraction and joke that it is.
      He really annoys the interviewer here when he Says “You Wana know who really influences US Elections?,…the Corporate sector”.
      Lol,…the interviewer continued to try and press Chomsky to denounce the Russians and got increasingly sh!try when Noam wouldn’t do it on command.

      No wonder the establishment press have blackballed him these days,….he refuses to stick to the #FakeLeft script.
      Rachel Maddow is probably labelling Chomsky a member of the Alt Right nowadays.

      https://youtu.be/TtqWezfIhMY

        • ErmingtonPlumbing

          If Trump leads to a President Sanders then Donalds victory over Hillary was well worth the 4 years of Cringe suffered by all.
          But Id rather see Trump win again if it meant keeping another Wall Street candidate Like Hillary Clinton out of Office and her ilk kicked out of the DNC.

          • I want to see Trump win to reveal how corrupt the left has become – the left really are in a very dark place.

            US left is completely corrupt – disturbingly.

          • But Id rather see Trump win again if it meant keeping another Wall Street candidate Like Hillary Clinton out of Office and her ilk kicked out of the DNC.

            I’d just add MIC mob in the same bucket of fecal mater of Clinton’s supporters but I am pessimistic that a single trace of democracy will return to US of A unless duopoly (US version of CCP style dictatorship) is disbanded and a plethora of new political parties rise from the ashes.

          • Ermo, Trump is the Wall St candidate. His ego is directly related to the rise in the S&P.

            He is the useful idiot doing god’s work for the 1 %’s.

        • What has Trump done ?

          His views on global warming are grotesque and quite bizarre. Aside from that he is hasn’t really done that much wrong.

          The Russian collusion was a democratic cover up for Clinton Global initiative and Hillaries dealings, which will still come out, and the Ukrainian stuff is another cover up for democratic corruption.

          It staggers me the levels of propaganda coming out of the US media.

          • Please go look at his labour and financial deregulation, makes everything before seem enlightened, not to mention his entire life time of corruption.

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      Sure,…Trump is a revolting human being, an ignorant dumb Shyte with probable mafia connections and is certainly no friend of the Working Class but the fake facade of respectability and manners offered up by an Establishment fakeleft that has no intention, what so ever, of representing the interests of the vast majority of the population is no lesser evil.
      They are just a shiny version of the same turd.
      If a desperately needed reform of the DNC can not be generated by the need to respond to Trump then what else can force them to reform?

        • ErmingtonPlumbing

          The real problem is that is all people remember about him.
          Yet He ended the new deal, betrayed workers with NAFTA and ushered in the Total Plutocratic domination of the American political system inc the Media,…..no cvnt seems to remember that!

    • Oh FFS skippy. For sarcastic, read metaphorical. Jeez I don’t understand how you can expect anyone to take your ideas seriously when you are barely literate

      • I don’t waste time on attempts at being clever, for that matter these are not my ideas, so myself is of no consideration in their validity. Per se if someone thinks their feelings about me is related to what I support then they other problems.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      When you give out citazenship like lollies what do you expect …..the CCP has a pool of candidates in enough Seats now get their way with silly little Straya
      ….as said before China has a plan for Straya but it doesn’t involve strayans …….
      ……

  21. desmodromicMEMBER

    In Perth on a Sunday afternoon, man it is quiet over here. A few young couples in the park with the kids, boomers (I’m one) in the coffee shops, a few more drinking beer at the wharf precinct, and not much more. Decided to tour the Perth Mint and now having a red at the Duxton Hotel bar with two others. Real quiet!

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Geetroit is so quiet on a nice sunday eve you could let off a cannon.

      The Gunnamatta hypothesis is that Australia may, in fact, already be in recession (and that if the RBA are going to wait until February before giving the body another cardio belt with the pads, then bits of skin may fall away from the body when they do)…………

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        I’ve been observing and discussingrecession like conditions with customers and in my trade for awhile now.
        I make a point of asking everyone I’m in contact with if they think there is a “slow down” going on for them.
        I’ve even got into the habit of asking every random Plumber I come across at my suppliers (Plumbers CoOp,Cooks and Tradelink)

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        Bloody hit post early and the edit option wasn’t there!

        Anyway,….. everyone I’m talking to is noticing a sharp slowdown with many saying they are the slowest they have ever been.
        This one is going to be big in my view and it’s already started.
        Xmas retail figures will be interesting and if new starts (construction) stay freezed up like they are then in 12 months time Josh Frydendork is going to be doing a lot of Backpedaling.

        How long before they can’t keep “Blaming Labor”

        As an ALP member (disgruntled for those who didn’t already know) I’m feeling happier by the month that we lost the last federal election.
        The LNP will now own our first Recession in a generation.

        • Kept looking for those sandals I was after today.
          Visited a shop in Carlton- part of a small family chain( had5-6 stores since forever).
          Chatting to the family member running it( and has for 30 years)
          – they have closed three of their shops in the past 12 months.
          – things are the worst in retail she has ever seen( worse than the 1980s, which were the previous nadir.
          I agree it’s started, and retail is a bomb zone.
          And lots of inner Melbourne traffic on a Sunday( Jehovah’s Witness convention in the city), but traffic during the week markedly reduced.
          – I crossed north road( a major arterial road) last week, and for the first time I remember, there was not a car in either direction for a block.
          Midday- not peak hour, but usually checkers with cars.

      • thinking same but will wait for Nov employment numbers to be sure to be sure.

        This arvo had a chat with a mate who is a builder and just started working on few townhouses. Was told that he was surprised how easy was for him to find available tradies this time of the year.

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