We expect a recovery in 2020 but a much weaker one than consensus
Things will get worse before they get better. Assuming any Phase One US-China deal is limited (no tariff roll-back), the existing tariffs should continue to work their way into the data and create an air-pocket in US growth in H1-20` (we are 60bp below consensus on the US, 20bp on China and 30bp on global GDP growth).
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
