Links 13 November 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen
Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


  1. Like the hope that you guys had for Turnbull, when he ascended to the throne, Kiwis had for Ardern, and just like Malcolm, she’s toast at the next election.

    • Janet its no different to when Bush Jr ran on an environmental platform and won as a republican, until the “mainstream economists” informed him of the – consequences to the economy and GDP – he did a military grade about face on a dime like solider of the year. Remember the bit about him being informed of all the endemic mortgage fraud by the FBI and then being informed that it would be bad for the war effort in the ME.

      Which is then eclipsed by Obama’s hope and change base under the bus for Capital, declined the hair cut by Paulson, was a key proponent of the alphabet bailout w/o a fiscal stimulus for the unwashed, did everything the republicans would do and would bend over for them without thought yet they still fought him tooth and nail because they said he was the socialist anti Christ to their base for PR reasons. Not to mention the 14 city paramilitary crack down on Occupy which makes the whole HK thingy look passive in comparison …. lmmao whom said – reality what a trip – again????

      I always thought Robin checked out when reality – hit him – especially after everything he saw as a kid and his experiences in the entertainment industry, was a huge Obama fan imo. Concerned about a few around here as well …

    • Interested PartyMEMBER

      Janet, on the immigration mess you have alongside of us, It make me wonder if it is all a version of the Cloward-Piven strategy.
      It is deliberate, there can be no doubt about that, and it appears to be global.

      There’s more to this story than meets the eye.

      • It amazes me how people search for complication when none exists.

        High immigration is simply another manifestation of mainstream supply-side economic thought.

        • Interested PartyMEMBER

          It amazes me how some can hold their breath for so long with the head buried in the sand……

  2. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    Meeting Anika Wells, our new member of the ALP (replacing Wayne Swan) this Saturday. Anything I should say to her?

    • What does she & her advisers REALLY believe in? Will she be just another NPC toeing the party line or will she stand up & try to improve the lot of Australians? And How?

      Hold her to account each time your BS meter goes off!

  3. Funnie~~~~~

    Adidas plans to close high-tech “robot” factories in Germany and the United States that it launched to bring production closer to customers, saying Monday that deploying some of the technology in Asia would be “more economic and flexible.”

    As seen elsewhere in response … the American robots can learn to code or as I have a penchant for … let them eat equity – !!!!!!!

  4. How do other shut ins here feel about Tesla? Both the car, technology and the company itself?

    The cars seem to have some amazing tech, although I can’t get over the build quality/lack of quality control. Youtube is full of videos about poor build quality, especially in early models. It’s as though it’s expected the EV side is supposed to make up for the engine/battery tech. Despite this, even as a ‘green’ alternative i struggle to reconcile the carbon footprint with respect to the mining and production of the cars and it remains unknown about the real battery lfie of the car (especially with the high uptake of the Model 3) and how these will be disposed of. I’m also not entirely sure that the options for vehicular transport are bienry – either petrol/diesel or BEV.

    The company itself is a shambles. Yes they recently made a quarterly profit and elon made his fancy tweet, and I don’t doubt he’s a smart guy, but he’s entirely idealistic and was savaged by Einhorn’s response.

    Also excitingly is the future launch of Rivian – a 4wd ute with 400mi range and independent 4wheel motors with the ability ot wade through creeks.

    Either way, its an exciting future, but probably best to avoid being an early adopter. Given the local price here for hte model 3 in Aus I consider it in a similar price point to the Merc C class, with the base starting at $65k and performance in early 90s, before on road costs etc.

  5. Interesting read

    The participants in this conversation are: Walter Heller, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers since January 1961; Kermit Gordon, director of the Budget [Bureau of the Budget], who was a
    member of the Council of Economic Advisers from January 1961 up to December 1962; James Tobin, professor of economics at Yale University, who was a member of the Council of Economic Advisers between January 1961 and August 1962; Gardner Ackley, who is now a member of the Council of Economic Advisers and who joined the Council in September 1962; and Paul Samuelson, professor of economics
    at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I am Joseph Pechman, director of economic studies at the Brookings Institution. Paul Samuelson and I have acted from time to time as consultants to the Council of Economic Advisers. Paul Samuelson, would you tell us when you first met John F. Kennedy and under what circumstances?

        • This should condense the 300 pages …

          History: 1946–1978

          The Truman administration established the Council of Economic Advisers via the Employment Act of 1946 to provide presidents with objective economic analysis and advice on the development and implementation of a wide range of domestic and international economic policy issues. It was a step from an “ad hoc style of economic policy-making to a more institutionalized and focused process”. In 1949 Chairman Edwin Nourse and member Leon Keyserling argued about whether the advice should be private or public and about the role of government in economic stabilization.[3]

          Nourse believed a choice had to be made between “guns or butter” but Keyserling argued for deficit spending, asserting that an expanding economy could afford large defense expenditures without sacrificing an increased standard of living. In 1949, Keyserling gained support from Truman advisors Dean Acheson and Clark Clifford. Nourse resigned as chairman, warning about the dangers of budget deficits and increased funding of “wasteful” defense costs. Keyserling succeeded to the chairmanship and influenced Truman’s Fair Deal proposals and the economic sections of NSC 68 that, in April 1950, asserted that the larger armed forces America needed would not affect living standards or risk the “transformation of the free character of our economy.”[4]

          During the 1953–54 recession, the CEA, headed by Arthur Burns deployed non-traditional neo-keynesian interventions, which provided results later called the “steady fifties” wherein many families stayed in the economic “middle class” with just one family wage-earner. The Eisenhower Administration supported an activist contracyclical approach that helped to establish Keynesianism as a possible bipartisan economic policy for the nation. Especially important in formulating the CEA response to the recession—accelerating public works programs, easing credit, and reducing taxes—were Arthur F. Burns and Neil H. Jacoby.[5]

          Until 1963, during its first seven years the CEA made five technical advances in policy making, including the replacement of a “cyclical model” of the economy by a “growth model,” the setting of quantitative targets for the economy, use of the theories of fiscal drag and full-employment budget, recognition of the need for greater flexibility in taxation, and replacement of the notion of unemployment as a structural problem by a realization of a low aggregate demand.[6]

          The 1978 Humphrey–Hawkins Full Employment Act required each administration to move toward full employment and reasonable price stability within a specific time period. It has been criticized for making CEA’s annual economic report highly political in nature, as well as highly unreliable and inaccurate over the standard two or five year projection periods.[7]
          History: 1978–present
          This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (July 2017)

          Since 1980, the CEA has focused on sources of economic growth, the supply side of the economy, and on international issues.[3] In the wake of the Great Recession of 2008–2009, the Council of Economic Advisers played a significant role in supporting the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. [8]

          Under the direction of Kevin Hassett during the Donald Trump presidency, the CEA released a report vilifying socialism and associating what they characterized as the “socialist” policies of liberal politicians to those of historical authoritarian regimes.[9]

          • Skippy,

            That was a helpful extract. Some context helps with that transcript.

            As you may have noticed. Stephanie and Co found the extract interesting. JFK as early MMTer.

          • You’ll notice the reference to guns and butter which I would break down to MIC / C-Corp or Social goods like M4A, public Ed et al, so as far as I can see – the State still spends first in the order of acts – its just a distribution question and what constitutes the agendas towards that and that some think ends justify the means E.g. we had to burn the village to save it thingy …

            I don’t think I have to splaine’ where that attitude originates ….

            Off to another Qld’er ….