Daily iron ore price update (the trapdoor)

Texture from Reuters:

Vale, the world’s largest iron ore miner, said on Friday that Brazilian regulator ANM had allowed it to resume its Alegria mine operations, which were interrupted last March after a “stress test” failed to guarantee its stability. company said the resumption of mining activities at Alegria will allow it to restore 8 million tonnes of 50 million tonnes in capacity lost after the collapse of its Brumadinho dam in January caused a series of shutdowns.

…Benchmark spot 62% iron ore, which slumped to its lowest in more than seven months last week at $85 a tonne, based on SteelHome consultancy data SH-CCN-IRNOR62 , may average $90 this quarter and drop to $70 next year, said Andrew Driscoll, head of resources research at CLSA.

Yep. Barring more Chinese stimulus, I’m still backing $60. And we may well see major downside spikes from there.

No charts again today but here’s the prices:

  • Tianjin spot down $2.30 to $82.70 and not far from new correction lows.
  • Paper held on with Dalain at 614 and DCE at $70.40.

It looks like we may break to new lows before the year is out though I am still targeting Q2, 2020 for the shakeout that gets us back to 2015/16 ranges.

David Llewellyn-Smith
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