What will a trade war pause fix?

Via Morgan Stanley, the answer is nothing:

Trade tensions between the US and China have been the single biggest source of uncertainty for the global economy over the past 18 months. After a protracted period of negotiations, some progress has been made towards a deal, with a potential Phase 1 to be signed in mid-November. How much of a difference will this make for the global economy?

To start with, we estimate that trade tensions and their impact on corporate confidence and capex have cost the global economy about 90-100bp of growth momentum. Studies by the Fed staff and the IMF suggest a similar impact. Global growth has decelerated close to a post-crisis low of 2.9%Y in 3Q19 from its peak of 4.1%Y in 1Q18.

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