SQM Research: “a new housing boom” is upon us

SQM Research has released its stock on market report for September, which posted an abnormally large 4.0% decline in listings over the month and a 6.9% decrease in listings over the year:

Listings fell across all markets over September, whereas over the year listings fell everywhere except Canberra and Hobart.

According to Louis Christopher, the property boom is back in Sydney and Melbourne:

September’s decline in listings was an abnormal result. Listings normally rise for the first month of the spring selling season. New listings did rise. It just that older listings recorded a large decline. It suggests stock is being absorbed at a quicker rate.

Turning to Sydney, the evidence, by way of the fall in listings, the rise in auction clearance rates and the accelerated rise in asking prices, all suggest that the city has indeed entered into a new housing boom. Melbourne is not that far behind the mark as well. I think we can expect to record rapid rises in dwelling prices for our two largest cities at least in the December quarter and likely beyond.

The strong rise in auction clearance rates backs up this view, albeit on thin volumes:

Comments

  1. I’ve lost all faith in self-reported clearance rates. 1 houses “sells” at auction trumpeted as “100% CLEARANCE!” Dude, it’s one unit across the entire suburb. To say volumes are thin, where I survey, is understating it.

    A couple of houses sold off-market are getting signs put up after the fact, though. One sign actually says “proudly sold off market” if I recall. Never seen one of those in 15 years here…

    If this is a boom I’d hate to see a bust.

    • People have been complaining of fake auction stats for the last 15 years. Whoopeee-do. Complain all you like and call them fake all you like.

      Can you go buy a cheap house? No. So them houses haven’t crashed, despite 15 years of allegedly not selling at auction.

      • Dude, 4 North Shore suburbs, 2 of 3 properties cleared for a 67%clearance. A few weeks ago one of one sold for a 100%. It’s a bulldust stat and should not be referenced. Use proper and meaningful stats, that’s all I ask.

    • Professor DemographyMEMBER

      As Peachy decries and decries correctly, as much as it looks like people definitely do add some dodgy data to these stats there is enough signal versus noise for these rates to have reliably predicted price rises for 15 years. Together with new mortgage credit growth it is the best indicator we have of future price rises. To make the case for useless data we will simply need to see this relationship break down.

  2. I don’t blame our “shallow” experts – from an amateur observation it all looks similar to the last boom but …

    falling stock on market is a bad sign for house prices, old listings are not being absorbed but rather withdrawn – a typical behaviour at this stage of bubble (people are now waiting for prices to recover before selling)
    For SQM Louis to be right in his assertion “New listings did rise. It just that older listings recorded a large decline. It suggests stock is being absorbed at a quicker rate.” last month would require record monthly number of sales ever but we know it didn’t happen. For Example, in Sydney, number of homes listed for sale in August was 30.5k, while number of old listings (older than 30 days) in September is at 16.5k and he is implying that this is because 14k of old listings got sold in those 30 days?
    LOL – in comparison number of sales in July was 5k and in May-July quarter was 16k

    It’s good that everyone thinks everything back to normal now … (almost everyone … ask developers and builders)

  3. Start getting your bulltish paperwork in order as that’s now the minimum requirement to qualify. What Royal Commission? This was also on prime time 7 news, written as an encouragement piece to enlighten the masses.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/survey-shows-increasing-number-of-liar-loans/news-story/4e25cb741a343aca503563261b9cf3f7

    ‘Those who were most likely to lie on their applications were people who had been rejected for loans twice or more, with 76 per cent saying they had provided false information.
    People who had bought more than one property over the last year were also quite likely to fudge their figures, with 63 per cent admitting to doing so.’

      • Moreover, the Treasurer (btw, is “Treasurer” derives from “Top Usurer”? “Top Reassurer”?) has declared that enforcing responsible lending is actually irresponsible!

        The obvious outcomes follow.

  4. The Traveling Wilbur

    You know what? This, and the last couple of weeks’ events, do prove the Government was entirely correct all this time about the Royal Commission. 100% right.

    There was absolutely no point in having it.

  5. It seems like this guy forecasts on a short-term basis only. Surely anyone with half a brain can see that it’s probably not going to be sustained for long. And then what? Drop interest rates another 1%?

    These guys are the ones at the roulette table who won a load of money, then started losing some of it and now are sitting there chanting “it’s going to turn any minute now”. And then when it does slightly they think they are back on a roll again. Except they don’t get to where they were before and then just end up chasing their losses. Except the morons are leveraged to the eyeballs and so the rest of us have to suffer with a banking crisis when it all goes sour.

    • Yout have this backwards mate.

      “Not going to be sustained long” is the refrains that the bears have been singing for well over a decade. And a decade is a long time. A long long time to be wrong.

      Reusa and his friends are expert sustainers. The “boom” is hard. The boom is solid. The viagra is subsidised by the government – think of RBA as the financial Medicare. The levy is on the non-borrowers, though.

      Haha!

    • Well [email protected] it, I’ve capitulated. I want to see daily gains. I want to see credit given to dead people. I want planeloads of people from [email protected] buying 2 apartments in the morning and flying home in the afternoon. I want to see wheelbarrows filled with million-dollar mortgages pushed down George Street. I want kids buying houses for their 16th birthday. I want Gerry Harvey and Aussie John to marry and become our JFK and Jackie O. I want all real estate agents to be knighted. I want Frydenberg on the cover of Time magazine. I want it to be 2015 again, except bigger and boomier and just more [email protected] massive.

      Because wishing for anything else, as it turns out, is just stupid.

      • There you go mate. Doesn’t it feel better.

        But now you must prove your conversion to the dark side. Eat your children and take your place next to Reusa. Together, you can rule the universe!

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        Now you understand what Winston Smith is going through on the final page of the novel 1984.

        ”But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother.”

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