Links 18 October 2019

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Unconventional Economist

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith is an economist and has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

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  1. NEW ZEALAND URBAN DEVELOPMENT: Local Government is talking sense …

    Property owners and developers want more councils to be directed by Government under new planning rules … Marta Steeman … Stuff NZ

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116615782/property-owners-and-developers-want-more-councils-to-be-directed-by-government-under-new-planning-rules

    … concluding …

    … (Local Government says …) The real obstacles to development were a restrictive planning regime, too much risk on councils regarding building and the inability to open up land for development because of poor infrastructure funding and financing tools.

    Pavletich (Paulson) comment on thread (in moderation) …

    Local Government New Zealand’s position … summed up in the last paragraph within the above article … is to be applauded and supported.

    In contrast, the protectionists from the investor / speculator interests (they are generally certainly not developers) of the Property Council should be ignored.

    The real developers in this country should have in place their own representative organisation … allied to the Urban Development Institute of Australia.

    Again … the Property Council does not represent the development community, who of course build new stock to compete with the Property Council members investor / speculator interests. Property Council members detest competition !
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    Dole numbers skyrocketing … Kiwiblog

    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2019/10/dole_numbers_skyrocketing.html

    • IRELAND – DUBLIN’S HOUSING BUBBLE & IRRESPONSIBLE BANKERS (AGAIN) …

      Home truths: Ease mortgage lending limits? Relax.. don’t do it … Mark Keenan … Irish Independent

      https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/home-truths-ease-mortgage-lending-limits-relax-dont-do-it-38601738.html

      … extract …

      … So exactly how affordable are Dublin prices by international standards? Well let’s ask an independent global authority rather than a local mortgage lending boss. The annual international Demographia survey of global housing affordability (it’s now in its 14th year) is always a good reference on this one.

      The Demographia survey is produced in New York to show the impact of affordability on global economies overall. And this year it has given Dublin an affordability index of 4.8.

      So how does that compare with other cities around the world? Well ‘affordable’ cities by Demographia’s estimates are those which have an index which stands at 3 or below. These include cities such as Oklahoma (2.7) and Detroit (3). Those cities which produce an affordability index of between 3.1 and 4 are deemed to be “moderately unaffordable”. But its 2019 score of 4.8 places Dublin in the higher echelons of the 4.1 to 5 bracket. Cities in this band are deemed to be “seriously unaffordable”.

      And if Dublin prices rose even slightly, as a relaxing of the lending rules might entail, then its score would likely end up at just over 5, or in the “severely unaffordable” band alongside cities such as Hong Kong, London and Toronto, which are all deemed to be at “greatest bubble risk” and the cities Demographia named this year as most at risk of having a property crash event.

      Demographia’s 2019 report should perhaps be read by Irish bankers who are finished getting shut of the crash’s bad loans at the expense of the taxpayer (loans which they originally approved) and are now champing at the bit for some fresh mortgage lending action. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • Hey Ermo, serious question.

      Do the guys at the local level have any idea of the actual sources of discontent among current, former and potential Labor voters?

      • I wrote to Andrew Leigh explaining why I wouldn’t vote for him or them after a lifetime of Voting Labor, and got back a “We’re sorry we’ve lost you but we’re certain we’re on the Path of Righteousness so fcuk off” reply.

        So they could know, but choose not to listen.

        • They would find a basket for you, depending on your reasons, eg racist, homophobe, nazi, sexist, loony etc so would just ignore the likes of us despite the fact we only want our kids to be able to have “a fair suck of the sav”.

  2. CHINA …

    China’s electronics exporters desperately look for an escape from US trade war nightmare … South China Morning Post

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3033358/chinas-electronics-exporters-desperately-look-escape-us-trade

    • Exhibitors at the Hong Kong Electronics Fair said American buyers were thin on the ground, with trade war tariffs killing much of the market

    • Some companies have joined the exodus of manufacturers from China to Vietnam, while others are absorbing tariff costs, but trade war fatigue has set in
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    China’s GDP growth to grind to 27-1/2 year low as tariffs hit demand … Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-gdp/chinas-gdp-growth-to-grind-to-27-1-2-year-low-as-tariffs-hit-demand-idUSKBN1WW32X