Links 10 October 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


  1. interested partyMEMBER

    “SORRY DEMOCRATS, IT’S OVER! Ukraine was Re-Opening Probe into Hunter Biden’s Company in February”

    What was Trump accused of?
    Oh….that’s right……..holding back aid until they look into Burisma… august……6 months too late….lol


    Loosers…every stinking one of them.

    So how’s that impeachment going?

    • interested partyMEMBER

      I’ve said it before, and i’ll say it again.
      This is the end of the Democrats. They don’t survive this. The only thing to sort out is how many are not behind bars.

      Obama….booked that flight to Kenya yet?
      post 894
      When we’re done he’ll claim Kenyan citizenship as a way to escape.

      • democratic party will survive, and thanks to this it’s going to be cleaned and shift to the real left
        Trump may win next elections but next midterms republicans will lose both chambers

    • interested partyMEMBER

      So Schiff is now stating that the whistleblower is receiving death-threats………but isn’t he/she still anonymous? and, they want to have him/she testify behind a screen and mask the voice?
      Most likely true….but the actual threats are likely from the dems……keep quiet or else.

  2. Balcony safety fears for more apartments linked to Opal Tower builder

    The company that built Sydney’s Opal Tower is embroiled in another safety scare at a different city apartment block. Residents of Otto Rosebery have been warned against leaning on their balconies or allowing more than three people to stand on them, after an investigation found the balustrades were of “inadequate strength”. Parents have been warned not to let children play on balconies.

    And now owners have flagged the possibility of pursuing the builder and developer in the Supreme Court.

      • It’s priceless, the 60 year old LL can’t afford the one weeks releasing fee and want’s to stick these costs on the 70 year old Tenant just released from hospital into family care.
        Australia has become a truly F’ed up place when there’s any room for moral discussion about such an issue. The Tenant has rights and one of these Rights (as in protected by the law of the land) is to terminate a lease without penalty for Health or Hardship reasons.
        The LL doesn’t want to lose this much rent because she has a Mortgage…well whoop-dee-doo. Said another way the LL wants to ignore the laws that govern real estate leasing because in this case they will result in lost rental income and associated release costs. Basically the LL want’s the law put aside because in this case it’s awfully inconvenient to her …unbelievable.
        More unbelievable is that she goes on to try to explain how she’s not a heartless B!tch just a money grubbing little w…
        The collapse of this stupidity can’t come soon enough, trouble is the upcoming collapse will involve lots of similarly overstretched LL’s that will also try to dump their financial problems onto the Tenants. What we really need is dramatically strengthened Tenancy laws and LL’s need to understand the obligations which come with renting real estate.

        • just checked comments below. It appears there are few Lend Lords, or LL as they call themselves on the forum, that actually have a soul. Came as a surprise to me but this guy sounds genuine.
          “I know where your coming from but on this one, your down and out. Non compassion and not letting them break lease due to the issues that have occurred is heartless. Even I as a LL would agree to it.”

          • My point is that this isn’t a matter for Compassion because (at least in NSW) it is a fundamental right of the Tenant, or as seen from the other side a fundamental obligation of the Landlord.
            In NSW if these facts presented are accurate than this is 100% the landlords cost, any attempt to negotiate any other outcome should be rebuffed by the Tenants family. and BTW the Tenants family should immediately request a release of the bond as they have given notice. They should definitely not allow the Real Estate Agents to have the bond released to the LL to cover lost rent.

          • agree with all that. I am just saying is, I expected 100% of the LLs on that forum to support the LL and fully agree with his view. It surprised me that was not the case.

        • I would not be concerned about tenants during the slump. Rents will fall by 40% or even more and vacancy rates will skyrocket so plenty to choose at lower costs …

          The scary part is that someone in 60s still has NG PI which means she bought it relatively recently when even idea of going to a bank to ask for a mortgage should be considered ridiculous

          • What amazes me is that so many landlords have so little understanding of the legal obligations that come hand in hand with their decision to become a landlord.
            They made the decision to be a Landlord, no one forced their hand but the moment that things go even slightly wrong they want the Tenant to pay when the tenant has no legal obligation to pay. Australian Landlords need to understand that Tenants have rights and they need to include these adverse Tenancy outcomes in their base case business plan.
            Landlords have had it so good for so long (through supply side strangulation) that they’ve come to assume that Tenants have no rights (because any Tenant that even attempted to exercise their rights was blacklisted), but that’s not how the law see it. So as the supply side corrects I suspect we will see many landlords learning that there are many costs with renting a property that they’ve not included in their own calculations.

          • “What amazes me is that so many landlords have so little understanding of the legal obligations that come hand in hand with their decision to become a landlord.”

            Why is it surprising? I read the thread, it’s a widow who put all her dough into a property after a conversation around a BBQ. It’s not ‘amazing’, it’s banal, routine, mediocre…. It’s modern day Australia.

            We let this toxic poison ruin the country economically, and instil a mindset of entitlement. This is who we are now.

    • They don’t lose a heartbeat when the shoe’s on the other foot – out on false pretenses & a bond gouge to boot. F’n one way swimmers.

    • Don’t fvck with the Vietnamese, remember their anti-vibrant gang fight backs? Earlier this year I think.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        This one caused mass confusion in the MSM. After copping a hiding from the Vietnamese the gangs went for easier marks around the universities and knocked a few Chinamans over. MSM were loathe to report it because didn’t want to scare off the PR money but were itching to scream African gangs. Such an internal battle.

        And that’s the right wing media. Imagine how hard it would have been for Aunty/SBS/Guardian journos to have to ignore it completely!

        • I did really enjoy that brouhaha (and I’m no the side of the Vietnamese, who have quite a good sense of humour)

    • From Gitto’s Viking article above – “In a society we are mutually interdependent. Strengthening the spirit of community, we improve society for all of us as a group but we also provide each individual with better opportunities for realising his or her own potential.”

      Strayan Society?

  3. Brains trust question – Monty pointed to the latest Macrovoices podcast (worth the listen) that reckons after Monetary is done, that Fiscal will be the next bat to be brought out to whack the mole. Is Frydenbergs reluctance to do this to do with losing his AAA stripes if he does? And what shape would Fiscal take over here?

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        Thanks to the CLF they won’t even have to buy them, simply transfer them via Open Repo.

        Under mark-to-market accounting principals, the advantage of an eternally rolling one day maturity time horizon is that any mtm movement greater than 1 day doesn’t exist…. they will forever be valued at their face value (or haircut FV), so win/win. Aust Banks get funding and the RBA gets to avoid recognising any losses.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            Possibly, but imho the CLF is the most likely mechanism by which they will provide the liquidity. Other approaches would require new legislation or changes to existing regulations in order to execute and take on the exposure.

          • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

            Open repo operations give the most plausible deniability in regards to any public regulatory outcry over bail out costs, etc.

            As I said, it will also assist with valuation issues – a blow out in credit spreads of the underlying aren’t going to have a big impact when you discount horizon is only a single day, as is the case with open repos.

            Buy them and they have to be valued to term – much bigger discount implication.

    • The only thing we have the skills for and that will influence unemployment is building……..hopefully they will put homeless barracks in each town and build the 500,000 housing commission house that we need. This might keep the LNP donors happy if the perks are big enough.

      Large infrastructure does squat for jobs………the trouble is they are already 6 months behind the curve.

      • I was thinking needed Infra & renewables, but if it’s not effective or shovel ready maybe more subtle ways that will show even lower return then? Lower Taxes, Further enlarging PS sheltered workshops, UBI?

      • @Nyleta
        I reckon there are minimum 500,000 empty flats & houses east in Oz. Real estate . Com has hundred of houses & flats listed that have not been let for 4-5 months. There are 12 I’ve tracked and tried to rent but no one answers the phone or responds to message. Plenty of empty places not listed – now looking derelict ready for a vibrant demo job and replaced with 2-10 rectangular s$$t boxes. My 2 cemts

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Loosing AAA? No.
      Loosing imaginary surplus (and not becoming like the last 5 labour governments in doing so)? Yes.

      • Have you failed to drink the morning koolaid again?

        Everybody knows that we’re a bee’s dick away from losing AAA. The next gust of the Fremantle Doctor will surely do it. Stick to the script, mate.

    • interested partyMEMBER

      Colin, what context is the question related to?
      Investments? or business opportunities? or social impact?

      • I guess I was thinking socioeconomic. But now you point it out, all 3 at the end of the day – someone else mentioned the best place to park money might be to park it under a govvie teat either in guise of a business or investment. If the ground’s going to shift it’s worth considering the new lay of the land.

        I’m also wondering whether if Monetary is depleted whether markets might be bypassed as fiscal is spent more directly into the real economy?

        • interested partyMEMBER

          Funny thing about money….if you cannot utilise it in a productive way, it slowly eats you through worry. We all look for the financial perpetual profit generating machine…….and it don’t exist.

          • I’ve never had much to worry about & the silliest thing I’ve saddled myself with now is going SMSF…… Worry, yes, but Time I could be doing something else with – Damien might eventually get the job.

  4. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    Possibly, but imho the CLF is the most likely mechanism by which they will provide the liquidity. Other approaches would require new legislation or changes to existing regulations in order to execute and take on the exposure.


    Ex-Air NZ boss Christopher Luxon confirms desire to run for Parliament with National … TVNZ

    Former Air New Zealand CEO Christopher Luxon has put his hat in the ring to become National’s candidate for the controversial seat of Botany – independent MP Jami-Lee Ross’ current electorate.

    Mr Luxon told 1 NEWS political editor Jessica Mutch McKay he would be putting his candidate nomination to the National Party for the electorate of Botany, and that he looked forward “to the robust democratic selection process ahead with the local membership”.

    Despite not living in Botany, Mr Luxon said he grew up in the electorate and still has family ties there.

    1 NEWS understands about 60 National Party members will decide on the Botany candidate.

    The confirmation comes after Mr Luxon announced his resignation from Air NZ in June – sparking a flurry of speculation of his political intentions.

    The move saw Mr Luxon’s first appearance with one per cent as preferred Prime Minister in the 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll in July. … read more via hyperlink above …