Daily iron ore price update (plenty)

Texture from Bloomie:

Cargoes of the steelmaking material shipped via Hedland may swell to a new high in the fiscal year to June 2020, and over this calendar year may beat 2018’s total, Chief Executive Officer Roger Johnston said in an interview. Last year, iron ore volumes were 508.5 million tons, with most going to China.

…“There are no impediments to miners in the Pilbara meeting targets that they’ve put up, and if you look at their collective targets, they are ahead of last year’s,” said Johnston, who spoke to Bloomberg Television and in a separate interview. On a calendar-year basis, exports may “just get ahead” of last year, barring natural events such as cyclones, he said.

…Iron ore output is expected to peak in the 2030s as mills in China opt to use more scrap in steel production. “In the next 15 years, we may not grow as fast, but it also doesn’t mean a slowing.”

It won’t take that long. To the charts:

Spot is still struggling. Paper too. Steel was better on more restrictions. No change. The market is clearly well supplied but supported by restocking. I don’t expect fireworks before heading towards, or in, Q2 next year.

Houses and Holes

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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