Credit Suisse growth tracker crashes into deep recession

Oh yes, via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse:

Over the past few days, we have witnessed some rather sharp deterioration in the leading indicators of Australian growth:

  1. Westpac consumer confidence fell sharply in early October to 92.8 from 98.2. For reference, readings below 100 have historically been associated with contraction.
  2. Westpac home-buying sentiment fell in early October to 116.6 from 123.4, with NSW and VIC leading the declines. Sentiment is off its recent lows, but the relapse is concerning considering the extent of credit loosening and rate cuts.
  3. NAB business confidence fell to -0.4 in September from 1.1, while business conditions improved slightly to 1.6 from 0.6. Capex intentions fell sharply to 2.9 from 6.2, while employment rose to 3.5 from 1.7.

Feeding the relevant data points into our proprietary domestic demand tracker, we find that the non-mining economy is in a deep state of contraction – in fact, the deepest contraction since the 1990s recession. The economy is in a lot of trouble from this perspective.

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