Brazil’s iron ore rebound disappoints

Brazil has released its iron ore exports for September and they are still running far below potential at 27.1mt:

After the July bounce we’ve had two very weak months, weaker than even Vale has confessed. I’m not sure why but it is obvious support for iron ore in the near term.

That said, more is coming, via Reuters:

Brazilian iron ore miner Vale SA said on Tuesday it has received 82 positive structural stability certificates at its domestic operations, with three dams being awarded positive certificates after negative evaluations in March.

In a securities filing, the miner also said six deactivated high dams still have negative structural stability certificates, while the Vargem Grande dam at its Vargem Grande complex still has a negative certificate too, it added.

It just goes to show. Without the Vale outage, iron ore prices would be screwed. I expect it will be doing another 2mt per month by year end and the year on year deficit be down to 3mt.

If not, then iron ore will hold up better than my $60 forecast.

Houses and Holes

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the fouding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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