Australia’s terms-of-trade enjoys one last hurrah

Within today’s dump of balance of payments data that feeds into tomorrow’s June quarter national accounts release was the important news that Australia’s terms-of-trade rose another 1.5% in seasonally adjusted terms and by 2.2% in trends terms:

Over the year, the terms-of-trade rose by 8.9% in seasonally adjusted terms and by 8.8% in trend terms.

Since the terms-of-trade measures the prices received for Australia’s exports relative to the prices paid for imports, this terms-of-trade result suggests it will push up both national disposable income (NDI):

As well as nominal GDP:

Too bad workers aren’t getting a slice. Nor will the ToT boom last, given the recent retracement of commodity prices:

Leith van Onselen

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

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