Weekend Reading: 10-11 August 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:

Americas:

Europe:

Asia:

Trans-Tasman:

Comments

  1. Let’s talk about Bonds…
    https://www.asx.com.au/education/exchange-traded-australian-government-bonds-course.htm

    How do you lose money on bonds? Let’s say I have $250,000 sitting in a bank account with the Big 4 and I don’t trust leaving it there, if I was to put it into Bonds at a low rate of return. What would cause the bond to lose money on maturity? A rise in interest rates? I assume bonds will drop in value when the economy starts to recover and the share market recovers and property values start to rise again (basically after a recession).

    My goal here is capital preservation and stay ahead of inflation.

    Do you pay tax on the coupons you receive? Is it as high as term deposit tax?

    • “My goal here is capital preservation and stay ahead of inflation.” – buy German bonds and pay few basis points tax to get most of the money back in 10 years. But after the reset and Laggard’s backed global currency who knows what that paper will be worth.

    • Gav –

      1. If you hold the bond until maturity, you get the full face value of the bond back. So the only way to “lose” money (when holding to maturity) is if you purchased them for more than face value, and the coupon payments along the way aren’t enough to make up the difference. (Or if the Aus government defaults on its bonds – then you lose – but it won’t default. Corporate bonds might – whole different matter!)

      If you buy a ten year bond at current yields, and interest rates go up, the price of your bond goes down, because the relatively low interest yours pays is now less attractive. But this only matters if you are buying them to resell later. If you are happy with the yield you are getting and the price you paid, you can just hold them to maturity. Yes I agree, in theory as rates rise post-recession, bonds should drop in value. Going into a recession they should rise.

      I have been buying quite a lot of short term bonds in the US (3 month or 1 year T bills) for the yield and just holding them until they mature and then just rolling over into more. For a long time I was getting 2.5% on them which was fine for me – basically risk free and keeping ahead of inflation. Now it’s down to about 2%.

      2. I believe you pay tax on the coupon payment in the same way as any other income.

      • I also have Aus govt 10yr and 15yr bonds. Not intending to hold to maturity. So they are a trade. They are going great guns so far but if interest rates shot up I’d lose money.

      • I have an account with Charles Schwab, a US full service broker (they have an Australian office). You set up the account with them and then send in USD, so you can buy US bonds, shares, ETFs etc in US markets in USD. I think they do options too but I never have.

        You need a USD bank account to transfer in from. So I set up a USD account at a bank here in Aus. Then I converted AUD into USD using Currencyfair (or OFX, or TorFX, or XE – just do not use the bank, their exchange rates are a ripoff) and then sent the newly converted USD into the USD bank account and from there into Charles Schwab.

      • @Arrow2. Schwabs will accept funding in AUD, and will convert that within their business to required currency for any transaction (they are also an FX trading operation). My test transactions came out fairly competitive on the exchange-rate factor, not the best, but OK.
        What I am saying is that you can simply send Schwabs your account funding in AUD and they will do the work for you in terms of currency transactions if e.g. you want to buy US Treasuries. However, they are a few basis points less good than my favorite which is OFX. Be aware that Schwabs have stated minimum account balance of USD25K last time I looked. Not sure if they really enforce that.

        The big thing for me is the subtlety of timing. If you charge your broker with changing your funds back to AUD every time you execute a transaction, then you are mixing up two variables, asset price and exchange rate. If you keep the account in USD then you can decide yourself when is the optimum time to convert the funds back into AUD (which may have no relation to the optimum time to trade the equities).

        @BurbWatcher has made me aware of Vanguard ETFs which will give you exposure to US Treasuries without the complexities of opening foreign brokerage accounts. However, the Vanguard US Treasuries-based ETFs I’ve looked at so far are hedged against currency fluctuations, so if you think the poo is going down, hedged is not what you want.

        Anyway, I won’t be putting any more of my AUDs into USDs right now, as a rebound is due. I have no idea how large or small the rebound will be, but I think everyone will most likely get more USD for their poos in a week or two. All care, no responsibility.

        Ten Dollar now please…

      • Arthur:

        The Vangaurd ETF I’ve picked up is VIF (https://static.vgcontent.info/crp/intl/auw/docs/etfs/profiles/VIF_profile.pdf), with a good spread of international bonds, with plenty from the US.

        Yes, all these products seem to be hedged (which is a shame for the time being), but at least you still get nominal capital moves, and yes the running yield is only about 1.88% AUD (last I checked)…however, it provides diversified exposure, and I’m personally ahead of a term deposit (payments plus capital gains so far).

        I also might hold off acquiring more USD for now – I think this bounce has a little more in it, maybe up to 70 cents….we’ll see!

    • With coupons going to zero the stop gap would seem to be these. Australian ones have a deflation base of 100. I like Blackrock Aussie fund.

      https://www.lazardassetmanagement.com/docs/sp0/6034/AnIntroductionToInflation-LinkedBonds_LazardResearch.pdf

      Long term bonds are looking to no longer be an income producing asset, but will act like gold as their value will be in repo and collateral when the horse trading starts over whose part of the financialised economy is going to go to funny money heaven. It doesn’t matter what pipe dreams economists and politicians have, the person on the street will insist on some rational scheme that makes sense to them and will enforce their wishes by the usual method of dumping the currency for real assets.

    • I have been thinking along same lines. A couple of issues to be clear about:
      – you do not want anything held via an intermediary e.g a fund, because it if goes bust or even feezes redemptions, you are stuffed – you need the piece of paper in your name
      – CHESS sponsored holdings accessible via brokers such as ComSec can be bailed in under the same rules that apply to bank deposits since the Australian bail in law (Financial Sector Legislation Amendment (Crisis Resolution Powers and Other Measures) Act 2018) applies to instruments of subsidiaries of ADIs
      – if the above aren’t a problem in the coming crisis, you need a way to get paid out into an account that won’t immediately be frozen. If you sell your exchange traded bond you are not allowed to have to proceeds paid directly into a foreign bank account

      So to ensure complete capital safety, you need the old fashioned bit of paper, which isn’t exactly available as such, but in lieu of that you need to do what the international investors do and pony up direct to the State or Cth Treasury issuing the bonds and buy from them and get your name (and only your name) on their register so you can
      – sell the bond without using any part of the Australian payments system
      – get to be a holdout when the Government tries to cut a deal with the international holders (q.v. see Argentinian situation)

      • That’s a bit too conspiracy theory for me. The government is not going to bail in CHESS holdings (shares and exchange traded bonds) any more than it is going to default on its bonds. I’m not saying it isn’t legally possible. I’m just saying they won’t do it. It would collapse faith in the banking and finance system for a generation.

        Nor would it freeze all bank accounts. Yes in an extreme scenario it might conceivably freeze some banks briefly if there was a bank run but it would not need to for long, just long enough to arrange the bailout. And FFS no one is going to be so dumb as to sell basically risk free government bonds and move the funds into a collapsing bank on THAT DAY.

        You’ll be fine.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Johnny come lately reporting in. Will join the bond party when term deposit expires in a few weeks so quite a bit a of mulling over your comments, thanks all.

    • The Beetrooter Advocate

      The best way to make money with bonds is to pull together all the cash deposits and short term loan facility credit available to you, buy AUS2YR bonds, wait for them to mature and then use all capital and returns from that investment to buy real estate in Australia. Technically you could cash them in after 18-months, but 2yr should be fine.

      • Just sharing some more thoughts, and playing devil’s advocate, to keep the bond discussion going – I think a lot of us are quite interested in this…

        OK re: 2 yr AUS bonds….I’m not convinced….if I bought today I would be getting ~0.7%/yr returns until maturity, not the coupon rates (otherwise what you’re saying is great).

        Examples, via: https://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/bondCalculator.do

        GSBI21: yield to maturity: ~0.7%
        GSBW21: yield to maturity: ~0.7%

        This means that you are buying for only 0.7% returns and little capital upside potential (as it’s already been priced in from months and years past).

        Beet, unless I’ve misunderstood you, I don’t think your strategy will work, and short-term dividends are better from Term Deposits for now.

    • Short term paper is the way forward as bonds look very overbought to me. If you got into longer-dated paper right now you’d probably end up with a nice paper loss for your sins. Gold also looks overbought. Both are ripe for a correction fairly soon.

      Probably sit tight for now and don’t stress about inflation too much. Longer term yes. I think the Govt guaranty scheme covers $250k per bank account so if you have more than that just open multiple accounts and put the cash on TD.

    • My 2c

      Gav: I believe that the conventional (not inflation-linked) bonds we are talking about will increase in value as interest rates expectations relevant to the bond’s timeframe also decrease; that is, it is the perception of interest rate movements that is more important than the actual movements, until the time of testing (CB actually drops, raises or holds interest rates).

      Also, it is my understanding that you will receive the coupon payment, but the % payment is only relative to how much you paid for it – so, you don’t get the coupon rate, you get the Yield to Maturity (see calculator here: https://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/bondCalculator.do).

      For example: GSBG29 (a 10-year bond) has a coupon rate of 3.25%, but the yield to maturity is only about 0.9% – so, buying today will get you a return of ~0.9%/yr.

      IMHO, there are two types of capital preservation: domestic currency preservation, and international value preservation.

      For the former: just stay in AUD cash in a term deposit (not advice!).

      For the latter: you need more, as the point is to protect against a potentially falling AUD: maybe AUD plus other things, like AUS bonds, US bonds, stocks, gold whatever…that being said, if the AUD rises, you probably should have done nothing but stay in a term-deposit! (again, not advice).

      Other are free to critique to what I’ve said 🙂

      Like a number of others here, I’m mainly just trying to figure out what to do from here, so I will be back later to contribute more, and will keep contributing to these musing throughout the coming week…

      • See below guys ….

        BTW MMT did not start off as some elite funded ideological PR agenda, nor did it rationalize some ex ante axiom and then proceed to flesh it out in abstinence of direct observation with historical reference points.

        I did post a link to Hudson yesterday to Sweeper and Wray below which should provide a modicum of back drop to how it was arrived at, contra to mainstream or ideological economic platitudes.

    • The post is horribly convoluted and mixes historical currency systems out of context as a means to an end, not to mention Lerner is not the one stop shop to MMT, but a contributor, one would also require Keynes, Lerner, Minsky, and Kalecki’s works.

      This is compounded by decades of mainstream [neoliberal] monetary views not having an operational model of the banking or financial systems, especially the shadow sector, yet proceeded to push an ideological agenda globally under the auspices of freedom and democracy. Which at the end of the day was a sort of financial imperialism where externalities were offshored and then rents extracted through financial flows – in absence real Mfg, as long as wages could be suppressed and cheap consumables offered in lieu of …. drama is though critical goods and services [health, education, electricity, water, wholesome food, et al] have experienced hyper inflation due to extractive management for profit of a few.

      I mean you can’t have double the cost internationally of health care with diminishing returns for the services objective and then say its functional on any level.

      I mean it seems like some are defending corporatism regardless of the results …

      • Hey skip. Why do you keep twatting on about monetarism, like any of us care. Monetarism is just more quackery, albeit a different strand of it to usual Keynesian twaddle. It’s very simple. Both Keynesianism and monetarism argue for intervention (by highly fallible humans) in the economy.

        Advocates of classical economics argue that if humans have a say in the economy it all turns to sh!t and the evidence strongly backs that position up. The economy is perfectly capable of managing itself so why don’t you and all those like you who are arrogant enough to believe that YOU have the answer to economic nirvana STFU and go and do something useful. Have a beer, pay attention to your family instead of wasting your life on something you clearly know fvck all about.
        The clock is ticking, buddy. Go do something useful with your life – help some poor or homeless people. Do something socially useful.

    • Jim Grant is the boss — there are few smarter in finance. There is nothing to discuss: MMT is utter quackery, been tried a hundred times and all with the same result i.e. abject failure.

      • Do you actually consider that a retort, not to mention there is absolutely no way to evaluate what your stating outside – your – strong beliefs.

        Then you have the gall to call anything else quackery when blithely uttering tautologies … chortle …. hay … you forgot the old saws of natural or real to give it that special gravitas ….

      • You point is what again – ???? – you believe Jim is smarter than everyone else cuz why – ????

        How about the fact that the Monetarist were wrong and now the Quasi monetarists are heading in the same direction, but Jim thinks its all about gold standard interest rates – alone – leading to irresponsible behavior.

        Myself and others are calling for a complete reformation in economics and crankery about money and IR are not at the top of the list …. try to wrap your institutionalized melons around that.

  2. Let’s talk about gold.. 😑

    so here we are.. between $1500 – $1550usd

    Correction is due as CBs and the 1% would want you to think gold is barbaric relic as long horns would call it.. and the “paper” that is made out of thin air is worth moar even though it can be produced in unlimited quantities at a stroke of a key. Where to now. Gold will correct no doubt as I can’t see how CBs and the 1% will capitulate without a fight and when they know so many think a piece is paper with funny pictures and few digits is worth moar. Ok it is backed by powerful military with really impressive nuclear arsenal.
    But what if that military can’t be used today due to the other side ability to do big enough damage to threaten the survival of the 1%?

    • I have no idea. But the way it has been behaving lately I would not be surprised at all if it rockets. And I honestly think it’s downside is limited due to the manic money printing going on. It’s pretty much gone nowhere for the last six years until the last few months. Best thing is that this time if it pops like in 2011, the aud is much much lower. If it got to 2011 high, with the poo on it’s knees, I would be seriously thinking about selling. Was very disheartening to see it rocket in 2011 but also see the AUD do the same and basically cancel it out.

    • gold has a good chance of going up for while before it corrects
      when recession hits gold always drops than as risk mood lifts it recovers

      I think it’s irrational to look into a intrinsic value of gold because it became a pure instrument of speculation

      • When gold was law and not just an asset, convertibility gave people an option, now that its just an commodity asset with lingering ideological hangover, people should check their beliefs at the reality door.

        But if you really want to get into the core of MMT and its broad multidisciplinary approach I can recommend – http://multiplier-effect.org/modern-money-theory-how-i-came-to-mmt-and-what-i-include-in-mmt/

        L. Randall Wray | October 1, 2018

        My remarks for the 2018 MMT Conference, September 28-30, NYC.

        I was asked to give a short presentation at the MMT conference. What follows is the text version of my remarks, some of which I had to skip over in the interests of time. Many readers might want to skip to the bullet points near the end, which summarize what I include in MMT.

        ******************************************************************************

        As an undergraduate I studied psychology and social sciences—but no economics, which probably gave me an advantage when I finally did come to economics. I began my economics career in my late twenties, studying mostly Institutionalist and Marxist approaches while working for the local government in Sacramento. However, I did carefully read Keynes’s General Theory at Sacramento State and one of my professors—John Henry—pushed me to go to St. Louis to study with Hyman Minsky, the greatest Post Keynesian economist.

        I wrote my dissertation in Bologna under Minsky’s direction, focusing on private banking and the rise of what we called “nonbank banks” and “off-balance-sheet operations” (now called shadow banking). While in Bologna, I met Otto Steiger—who had an alternative to the barter story of money that was based on his theory of property. I found it intriguing because it was consistent with some of Keynes’s Treatise on Money that I was reading at the time. Also, I had found Knapp’s State Theory of Money—cited in both Steiger and Keynes—so I speculated on money’s origins (in spite of Minsky’s warning that he didn’t want me to write Genesis) and the role of the state in my dissertation that became a book in 1990—Money and Credit in Capitalist Economies—that helped to develop the Post Keynesian endogenous money approach.

        What was lacking in that literature was an adequate treatment of the role of the state—which played a passive role—supplying reserves as demanded by private bankers—that is the Post Keynesian accommodationist or Horizontalist approach. There was no discussion of the relation of money to fiscal policy at that time. As I continued to read about the history of money, I became more convinced that we need to put the state at the center. Fortunately, I ran into two people that helped me to see how to do it.

        First, there was Warren Mosler, who I met online in the PKT discussion group; he insisted on viewing money as a tax-driven government monopoly. Second, I met Michael Hudson at a seminar at the Levy Institute, who provided the key to help unlock what Keynes had called his “Babylonian Madness” period—when he was driven crazy trying to understand early money. Hudson argued that money was an invention of the authorities used for accounting purposes. So over the next decade I worked with a handful of people to put the state into monetary theory.

        As we all know, the mainstream wants a small government, with a central bank that follows a rule (initially, a money growth rate but now some version of inflation targeting). The fiscal branch of government is treated like a household that faces a budget constraint. But this conflicts with Institutionalist theory as well as Keynes’s own theory. As the great Institutionalist Fagg Foster—who preceded me at the University of Denver–put it: whatever is technically feasible is financially feasible. How can we square that with the belief that sovereign government is financially constrained? And if private banks can create money endogenously—without limit—why is government constrained?” – snip

        Detractors so far seem use mainstream optics to attack it, without actually reading the history and literature that supports it, not to mention a propensity for various grades of monetarist rationalizations e.g. Milton’s groups monetarist ideas [failed] replaced by neoclassical quasi monetarist ideas [heading in the same direction].

        Yet at the end of the day its all about – the role of government in society – and how that relates to a functioning society vs cookie cutter ideological econnonomics with questionable metrics leading policy formation.

    • No need to overthink gold. Its supply is increasing by roughly 2% per annum and for direction just keep an eye on what the money supply is doing in all major currencies. Big time money printing is coming and it’ll be higher than 2%.

      Gold is rare, fiat is infinite. That is all.

  3. btw – wtf.. IO is about to hit the ground but the poo is still floating on the surface. Do we really have to wait until all 4 need to be bailed out?

    • I’ve given up trying to understand the poo’s moves. It doesn’t move rationally at all. If you gonna short it, you better be prepared to wait a while. 2015 for me…

      • It’s very technical so trade accordingly. If you trade the fundamentals it’ll make a pauper of you.

        Personally I think all non-professionals should leave FX well alone. Just my 2 cents

    • This is an example of why the poo sometimes goes up, capital inflow.
      ASX listed Gold miner SLR just released today (10/08) that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. is a owner of 6.5% (53 million shares) of the company. Now Mitsubishi .. says ‘it’s one of the largest banking institutions in Japan’.
      What are Japanese Banks doing buying West Australian Gold Miners via Morgan Stanley??

      • david collyerMEMBER

        MUFJ recently bought a CBA/Colonial subsidiary company with extensive small cap Oz equity holdings. Substantial shareholder notices have popped up all over the ASX.

        Yes, in a nationalist sense we have just been sold a few more bends down the river. Contrariwise, one could assert franking credits would be denied to MUFJ, though they will certainly look for and probably find a way to encash them.

    • Once you accept there is no activity whatsoever, that is precisely none, which is not inherently dangerous to your or your children’s health (even though you didn’t realise it) or which is not having an insidious yet devastating effect on some small proportion of the population you can relax and skim read.
      For example kids collecting those Woolworths Ooshies or Coles Little Shop promotions is a bad thing making kids materialistic.
      https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/as-little-shop-2-battles-lion-king-ooshies-the-real-losers-are-kids-20190802-p52d7n.html
      Luckily, those footy cards and stickers we loved collecting and swapping years ago were just imaginary.

    • The irony being we now know that protecting and sheltering children from things which may cause them stress or anxiety is exactly what sets them up for massive failure in life – exactly this.

      Johns Marsen has it dead right – as do the northern scandanavian bush schools – send the kids out on their own to test their limits, do not shelter them, do not protect them – that is where the damage is done.

      Imagine coming out of school and your view on life is “I will not engage in anything that I am not good at, or I do not like because it upsets me” – just, so wrong.

      Jordan Peterson addresses the psychology in todays universities – the stringent and rigorous days of science backing claims is long gone and beliefs have taken over – its really sad.

      • Marsden and Scandinavia, yes. Peterson, no. His homely wisdom delivered in the manner of a stern pastor makes for good entertainment, and really pushes buttons, but it is just isn’t that good. Hopefully people use him as a gateway to better stuff. Whether it be modern, like Jonathan Haidt, or ancient, like Epictetus. (Now there was a stern, no nonsense mofo.)

        Here’s a Haidt presentation that I think provides a better critique of modern problems than anything Peterson had out forward.
        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ONUM4akzLGE&t=565s

      • Sorry footsore – you are just utterly wrong – give up on the American left wing hysteria – its revolting to see it being regurgitated in Australia.

        Peterson is way out his depth on some areas, climate change for example – but your comment just illuminates just how badly you have swallowed the tripe from the ultra far left – its utterly absurd.

        Peterson is one the leading experts in his field, he is a leading researcher, academic, and practitioner across the US and Canada and is one of the most published MODERN clinical specialists in the world today.

        The muddying of the water around him and his credentials as you are doing is without doubt the single most easily discredited accusations you can make in almost any argument.

        Sorry you have no idea what you are talking about – Peterson gets plenty wrong – but he is 100% dead right about a huge number of issues – particularly this one – in fact since he is probably one of the most prolific researchers in statistical analytical clinical research in his field – no one even comes close when he discusses the issue of opinion and belief over fact.

        And you have just linked me to a 100% – belief over fact. Absurd post. His entire premise (the world is unbelievably good) – is worse than ignorant – oh look – no second world war – things are great. Lolllll.

        And then he bangs on about Hulme -probably the single greatest spotlight to “i have no idea” you can get. Reason is a slave to passion – oh my god. Thanks champ.

        You seriously posted that.

      • The start of that presentation has dated badly. Things have gone downhill in the past few years. Persevere with it to see the analysis of what caused division between groups. It’s based on research done within America but a lot translated well to Australia.

        Peterson is a confident, yet ordinary thinker. He has strong beliefs which he stands up for. That is admirable. But the dude can’t write. I’ve read a lot of the post modernist writers he criticizes. And some do deserve all the disdain put towards them. (Apart from Debord I’ve never had the inclination to pick them up since uni made me read them.) Yet his academic pieces are worse than that. And based on something flimsier than textual analysis, Jungian archetypes.

        He succeeds in this day and age because of his demeanor. He is like the John Cave character in Vidal’s ‘Messiah’. The message is ordinary yet the delivery is captivating. He pushes buttons. I just find him to be a non event think he’s a non event. One of my favourite Peterson tricks is his hand waving. When he’s challenged on something that he can’t respond to he’ll dismiss it as being historically complex. Yet he died it in such an authorative and condescending manner that he usually gets away with it.

        If you like him, that’s fine. I’m just saying he is an Ink Master to a show like Chernobyl in regard to quality and you can find others that do what he is trying to do that are far better. Off the top of my head, Bill Irvine and Massimo Pigliucci are another two modern academic philosophers that offer up better criticisms of safe spaces. I prefer Pigliucci’s critique to Irvine’s yet both are far superior to anything that Peterson has offered. They just don’t get the press because that don’t come across as well.

      • david collyerMEMBER

        Haidt and Peterson are not mutually exclusive, nor even competing in the same intellectual space. Both are classic British liberals – an endangered species. I commend footsore’s link to you all.

    • We had our kids playing competitive sport from a very young age and over the years, had coaches who were absolutely brutal; “that was sh1t. What sort of shot was that? Could have driven a bloody truck between your bat and front pad!” at the tender age of 11. I won’t go into son’s AFL coach in Darwin, tough on a bunch of U14’s but didn’t he earn their respect. Sons now 21 and looks back fondly at those times that went some way to building resilience. His 14 year old brother reckons ACT coaches are soft.

      Mrs Nut has spent plenty of time on P&C’s and was stunned by the number of fvcked up parents raising fvcked up kids. So many times she heard “my child should be in the Gifted and Talented class, they’re so smart”. Then we ask the kids “do you know such and such, are they smart?” “Nah, dumb as fvck” “Oi, stop fvcken swearing ya little sh1t”.

      The Chinese would have owned us one way or the other.

      • yeah nah
        …agree with everything you say before Chinese parents. We had a particularly bad experience of cricket, but looking back on my own cricket years, the sport has an aggressive intimitadory culture (in Australia, not so in England) and no wonder it is disappearing fast. On the other hand, round ball football codes are great.
        Chinese parents…well you wouldn’t want to generalise too much, but having a single child in a ultra mega competitive environment causes all sorts of problems.

    • To be filed under: “If you breathe too much air you’ll get cancer”

      I despair for humanity

    • Well if you have grown up and been educated in Australia it’s unlikely you think of the concept that history is written by the victors.
      If you do some looking, you will find many credible accounts that don’t fit the main stream narrative, just two are Pearl Harbour and dropping of Nuclear Bombs on Japanese cities.
      Looking at all of the issues going on at the time, I find it very difficult to believe the main stream narrative about WW2. It was not that simple and each country had their finger in the (war) pie.

      • The fire bombing of Germany and Japan is considered one of the worst war crimes in history – obviously the nuking of Japan being the worst and entirely un-needed.

      • Big H is not free of blame. Look at the plans for Ukraine – the initial German governor of the province wanted to Germanify the area and the locals, and setup Universities. He was overruled and the place was just mined for slave labour despite the German army being initially welcomed by Ukranian peasants.

        Divide, conquer, integrate. A plan as old as Caesar or Genghis Khan.

        European strength should have been turned outward, not inward against eachother. If Big H has sought living space to the far South, instead of the far East, we would be in space speaking German by now.

        Its funny when the opponents of !slam are accused of being Naz!s. I wonder if those accusers understand the attitudes of Big H towards that particular ideology? He met with the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, received a white Stallion from a caucasus Musl!m warlord… Big H even called Chr!stianity a ‘soft religion’ and wished that !slam had taken over Europe instead, as it would have instilled a proper fighting spirit in the (still genetically superior, he said) local population.

      • macrofishMEMBER

        Southward to where? The Balkans and parts of the old ottoman empire sure but everything else was taken by that stage

      • The Dark Continent. 3x bigger than Europe. Untapped natural resources. Endless natural beauty, and a population waiting to be properly managed. A friendly population of Boer compatriots if you can make it to the south.

      • macrofishMEMBER

        You mean the one with all the key parts occupied by other European empires? And your assumption the boers would help anyone other then them self its laughable.

        its 1930, not 1800.

  4. US CHINA TRADE WAR …

    Why Vietnam is emerging as a ‘winner’ and possible new target of the US-China trade war (VIDEO) … South China Morning Post

    https://www.scmp.com/video/economy/3022208/why-vietnam-emerging-winner-and-possible-new-target-us-china-trade-war

    US farmers brace for more pain as China halts US agricultural imports amid escalating trade war … youtube / South China Morning Post

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjawJ2aQcq0

    China producer prices fall for first time in three years, deflation worries resurface … Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-inflation/china-producer-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-three-years-deflation-worries-resurface-idUSKCN1UZ0AD

    • RE the vietnam video. Good to see them getting a boost. What is really annoying is that these global companies just keep shifting to the next lowest wage hotspot. So we have these multinationals making sh1tloads of money from first world consumers by manufacturing in third world countries whilst simultaneously the working class of their country slowly slip into third world status due to the hollowed out manufacturing sector. Except of course the rich are doing extremely well.

      • Timmeh … Political interference illustrates just how quickly business adapts.

        They have to, to survive.

        No doubt there is massive business ‘relocation’ to Central / South America … and elsewhere too … lifting more and more people out of poverty !

        Isn’t it remarkable how the world overall is becoming increasingly prosperous … in spite of windbag politicians and bureaucrats.

      • “Isn’t it remarkable how the world overall is becoming increasingly prosperous … in spite of windbag politicians and bureaucrats.”

        Got any data to support that, not to mention the windbags are on the corporatist dime …

      • Timmeh you forgot to mention the bastards don’t pay tax in the first world countries either. Due to sneaky subsidiary lending between themselves to reduce their taxable profits.

      • My wife bought my daughter some $40 Nike slides recently and we (the parents) were discussing how much they cost to make (presumably in some slave nation). My daughter piped up: “probably 10 bucks”, and we were like nope, 50 cents to a dollar, max.

        As a past buyers of goods from China for our business, when you buy in bulk that’s what the economics look like.

  5. UNITED STATES HOUSING … In case you missed these important articles …

    First … perspectives from New Zealand …

    Americans scramble to find affordable homes as housing crisis spreads | Prashant Gopal, Reade Pickert and Noah Buhayar | Stuff.co.nz

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/114845729/americans-scramble-to-find-affordable-homes-as-housing-crisis-spreads

    Low mortgage rates and thriving employment should be the recipe for a strong housing market. Instead, they’re deepening America’s affordability crisis.

    What began on the coasts, in areas like New York and San Francisco, is now radiating into the nation’s heartland, as well as to cities from Las Vegas to Charleston, South Carolina.

    Entry-level buyers are scrambling to purchase homes that are in short supply, sending values soaring. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    The average home price in every American state – and what you get for your money | Marissa Perino | Stuff.co.nz

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/113894360/the-average-home-price-in-every-american-state–and-what-you-get-for-your-money?rm=m

    … and Dallas USA …

    … What does leading American homebuilder D R Horton know that State / Local governments and other builders have yet to learn ? …

    How D.R. Horton, late in the cycle, lifted home closings 13%: ‘It’s all about price’ | Commentary | Mitchell Schnurman | Dallas News

    https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2019/08/04/dr-horton-lifts-home-closings-13-late-cycle-price

    … extracts …

    … But take some comfort in the latest results from D.R. Horton, the nation’s largest homebuilder. On Wednesday, the Arlington company reported that home closings soared 13% in the latest quarter, extending a streak of double-digit gains that started in 2012.

    Horton is on pace to close almost 57,000 homes this fiscal year, finally topping its previous peak in 2006, just before the housing crash.

    Its stock price has roared back, too. Horton’s market value tops $17 billion, up from $2.9 billion eight years ago. And last week, the company’s board authorized $1 billion in stock buybacks. …

    One key to its run: Horton has ramped up construction of lower-priced homes, appealing to first-time buyers and empty-nesters looking for more affordable options. …

    … “The demand is there, if you can position and drive a price that they can buy,” Auld said.

    Horton has a deep supply of land — 300,000 lots either owned or controlled. And it operates in 87 markets in 29 states. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    … What is Australia learning from the United States ?

    Kiwis are … refer http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org

    • I’ve always loved American starter homes, it’s basically what I want our “tiny homes revolution” to produce. The only problem is how to keep them as starter homes so they can go from one generation to the next. I can’t see our current pollies stopping someone from having a go by buying the cheap starters and subdividing and building vibrant dog boxes, it’s the Australian way.

    • So the lesson is: Horton went early and land-banked?

      They took a gamble and won (for now).

      • Dominic … Why is American housing generally so much more affordable than Australian ?

        Pricing information on the States in the Stuff (Fairfax) article is just fascinating. It should be republished in Australia.

        Read the above material closely.

    • ” … Why is American housing generally so much more affordable than Australian ?”
      A number of reasons:
      1. Land availability plus the fact that the Septics use all the land in the middle while strayans live exclusively on the coasts.
      2. Cheaper labour
      3. Cheaper materials
      4. Less regulated / less union involvement
      5. Easier access to land for development

      As for the low end of the housing market going doo-lally right now — that’s a function of the GFC boom/bust. When the builders got themselves back on their feet they built for the middle / high end of the market as that was where the money was – and the margins. Cheaper houses = low margins. As a result, the low end was neglected from a supply standpoint and now you have demand in that segment squeezing the supply side of things, thus Horton firing on all cylinders.

      All just in time, I should add, for the next (and likely most brutal) recession.

    • I’m still struggling to see what your point is. Horton are making a mint out of low cost housing (at the moment). The way to sell more of any good is to reduce its price and the only way to reduce the price of goods (and be profitable) is to be the best at managing costs i.e. be a damn well run business, which Horton clearly is but I’m struggling to see what your point is beyond that.

      You mention ‘restoring’ housing to 3.0x income which is great but how do you achieve that? By decree? We’ve been here countless times before (price controls) and it only leads to one outcome. Robert Mugabe tried it inZimbabwe and Nicolas Maduro has tried it more recently in Venezuela.

      It’s well known the building industry that Aussie companies building these cheap ‘n cheerful estate developments make barely anything at all out of them — and that’s if they manage to execute properly. The cost of any good or service must – by default – be related to the costs of providing that good or service. Price controls would simply serve to send most builders to the wall and reduce the supply of homes. This is Econ 101.

      That said there is one surefire way of reducing the home price / earnings ratio: go back to a gold standard. That way, property will revert to what it should be which is a consumption item i.e. ‘shelter’, rather than a speculation.

      • In ye olde tymes, before MB developed its immigration obsession, there were numerous articles posted about why housing was expensive, analysing the different input costs, etc.

        The problem is largely the price of (buildable) land, which has multiple sub-drivers, but most of them come back to “manipulating the land availability system so the powerful can profit bigly”.

        Real construction costs have actually declined slightly, from memory (thought much of that could have an accompanying drop in quality).

      • Agree in general but the driver seems to be land that people want to live on due to social considerations and not some abstract notion of price and value as a monetary unit of account.

      • Agree in general but the driver seems to be land that people want to live on due to social considerations and not some abstract notion of price and value as a monetary unit of account.

        Even land outside of close proximity to [whatever] is outrageously expensive. Springfield, to use a Brisbane example. Middle of nowhere and you’re still paying hundreds of thousands of $$$ for a postage stamp of land.

  6. Sydney councils push to make expensive property owners pay higher rates – The SMH

    Sydney councils are pushing for some owners of expensive properties to pay $500 a year more in rates under a radical proposal

    $500 per year is radical? Try $500 per month.

    New Jersey has one the highest property tax rates in USA.

    Last year, the average homeowner paid $8,500 per home, a 2.35 percent increase over 2015

    Awesome! Put in a 2.4% land tax on every house that is sold in Sydney from 1 July 2020 onwards – you have got to grandfather the old psychopaths who have already purchased, otherwise the tax will never be put in.

    • but some kind of land tax is what we have now
      the problem with land tax is that it taxes only land not what’s on it
      the argument here is that value of the home (both land and the building) should be used to calculate rates (you may call it tax)
      it’s dumb to levy less for a penthouse in CBD high-rise than a tiny house in Alexandria

      • roylefamilyMEMBER

        The great majority of the value is in the land(location). It is very sensible to stick to the land value rather than have to run around trying to value structures.

      • Call it a Mansion tax. Target excessively big homes. Like McMansions that are incredibly stupid in terms of Environmental thinking…

      • If you added the structures you start encouraging people not to build on or put the land to use. By focussing on the land you are discouraging hoarding, getting back some of the uplift that comes from society, and hopefully going some way to encouraging sensible infrastructure investment.

      • unfortunately great majority of house value is in land but that is not the case for high-rise units
        most of value in case of high-rise units comes from zoning and air rights that are not taxed
        a 200sqm penthouse in a 50 floor building uses 5 sqm of land – even at some of the highest prices of land in sydney CBD ($100k per sqm) land doesn’t cost even 10% of the value of the unit

        the way rates are calculated based on land value makes rates for a $3.5m unit in CBD lower than rates for a 800k tiny house just few km away.
        https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-alexandria-130344906
        https://www.domain.com.au/2602-130-elizabeth-street-sydney-nsw-2000-2015510767

      • There is an empty plot of land across the road from me – it has been empty for 10 years.

        $500 per month in land tax would encourage the psychopaths to build a house on that empty plot of land. Aussies who live in apartments are usually poorer than Aussies who live in houses. Hardly any penthouses exist.

        Urban sprawl is not caused by apartments – urban spart is caused by houses. Urban sprawl is costly and bad – South Korea had fast internet in 2005 because most South Koreans live in apartments and they built a fibre to the basement network. Urban sprawl means Melbourne is 100 km wide instead of 50 km wide. Longer water pipes, longer sewage pipes, longer broadband pipes, longer roads, longer railways, etc.

        Apartments tend to get built near train stations so that people who can not afford a car can walk to the train station – houses are built everywhere and I never lived in a house that was within walking distance of a train station.

    • The problem with a land tax is that it means you never buy the land, you only rent it, which is absurd really. Putting down a cool $2m for a property, you’d kind of want to own it outright, no?

      • That’s incorrect. Even if there is no land tax the title is just permission from the crown to use the land as per the rights, restrictions and responsibilities. A land tax is just the crown recapturing some of the economic rent that flows into the land.

  7. HONG KONG PROTESTS …

    Hong Kong protests spread across Australia revealing deep divisions in Chinese community … (ABC) Australian Broadcasting Corporation

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-10/hong-kong-protests-spread-across-australia/11398832

    Protests and violent clashes in Hong Kong have spilled over onto Australian university campuses, revealing a deep division of opinions in the local Chinese community. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    U.S Calls Beijing ‘Thuggish Regime’ For Harassing American Diplomat In Hong Kong |YouTube / TIME

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg4x-dsDr8M

    Protesters stage sit-in at Hong Kong airport and target tourists … YouTube / Daily Mail

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkpBgerBpu8

  8. https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/rba-ready-for-zero-rates-qe/news-story/6d7b2eb9c196f7890e91942d677a538b

    The RBA are doing exactly what they have to do when the government insists that they are going to run deflationary fiscal policy in an environment of falling inflation. Try to keep the demand for private bank credit from collapsing.

    https://twitter.com/pfh007/status/1159936019992440832?s=21

    The RBA keep doing the same things that do not work (trying to drive the economy by manipulating the price of private bank debt and driving the demand for more bank credit) because they are designed to do them.

    Remember the lazy incompetent Liberals specifically refused to allow the Royal Commission to examine the role of the RBA and APRA.

    The driver behind all that reckless and irresponsible lending by the banks was that excessive lending was precisely the point of RBA interest rate cuts. The RBA wanted households to borrow, borrow borrow.

    Unfortunately mountains of household debt driven into asset price speculation and not real productive investment is deflationary.

    On top of this the Liberal government want to run contractionary fiscal policy (run a surplus) and that means they are forcing the RBA to run even looser monetary policy, which will pump asset prices up higher in the short term and will make things a lot worse in the longer term.

    Fixing this mess first requires a national education program so that more Australians understand how our monetary and banking system work.

    Second it requires the Federal government running a modest deficit, preferably by cutting taxes (say by raising the tax free threshold) and financing that deficit, in part, with some bond sales direct to the RBA. A debt owed (and any interest paid) to the RBA which is owned by Australian people is not a concern.

    But all of this requires our politicians ending the nonsense that an economy can run well solely on monetary policy (private bank credit money) and not new public money which is what a fiscal deficit represents (what govt spends into the economy less what it taxes back).

    The Norwegians understand the problem

    https://static.norges-bank.no/contentassets/8cfbb9eaebd7411691e13096d9a9a36a/working_paper_4_19.pdf?v=01/18/2019100151&ft=.pdf

    • The Beetrooter Advocate

      If a Central Bank cuts rates in a forest and nobody takes on additional debt (over the long run average), did they really fall?

    • Why are tax cuts preferable?
      Keating still thinks he hasn’t wrecked the country enough and said the same thing during the week:
      “The top rate shouldn’t be a jot over 39%”
      Why? Why should it be a jot under 70%?
      Give me 5 good reasons

      • Sweeper,

        Raising the tax free threshold has nothing to do with the top tax rate.

        It will mean that most low income earners pay no income tax or very little

        Most importantly it is difficult for the small government crowd to attack it.

        If you would prefer a monetised fiscal deficit by increasing government spending rather than reducing income tax on low income earners you need to explain what you have in mind and how you would sell it an election.

        An earned income tax credit like they have in the US might be a good option.

        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit

        Increasing government expenditure AND introducing RBA monetisation of the resulting deficit would be political ratsak.

      • Because income =\= wealth and income tax entrenched inequality

        Income tax should be 0%

        What type of idiot discourages productive activities by taxing it ?

  9. Yesterday I was thinking to myself that MB really needed a Quant’s corner.
    So much of what one might call Classical Economics (regardless of the particular school you believe in) starts any analysis off with a falsehood. all things being equal and than builds layer upon layer of stupidity into their model, which ultimately becomes too complex and therefore gets replaced at the highest levels by some hand waving. But what if this is all wrong? What if there are aspects of our economy that are actually solvable using some form of multivariate analysis? What happens if you can accurately predict or control the price of any item/commodity? what happens to so called random noise or variance if it can be cancelled or noise-shapped out of the region of interest?

    Back in the early 1980’s a group of Math and Physics graduates started a company that put many of the above questions to the test. This company became one of the most successful Hedge Funds ever and started the world down the Quantitative Analysis pathway. Yet here we are over 35 years later and most working Economists still don’t have the basic skills to preform even routine Quant tasks. Most Economists are still waving their arms about when they try to describe movements in the market especially unexpected reversals (like the Aussie dollar on Thursday).
    I get the feeling that maybe it’s time for the Quants to talk while the Economic profession takes notes.
    Tell me what you think, however please save the insults for another day because everyone already knows that I’m a very unpleasant fellow and to innumerate my many flaws honestly adds zero value.

      • Good point, however if I’m sitting in Quant’s corner I can’t guarantee that the two opposing corners won’t somehow become a singularity.

      • Looks like Quants corner will be a very lonely place …better make sure we reserve places for other cvnts or better still just call it cvnts corner that way everyone will feel at home.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Quants corner contribution #1

        1st rule of a devolving economy where a recovery is suffering a lag after stimulus effects have faded (whocouldanode): Buy bonds.

        1st rule of a trade war between indebted countries running deficits: Buy bonds.

        Derivation of the two rules above when both apply simultaneously: Buy fckn lots of fckn bonds.

      • I suspected I find Harry in the Cvnts corner, but I sure wasn’t expecting him in the quant’s corner.
        Good job we combined them, this way everyone’s a winner, i hope it doesn’t create any confusion.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Starting to feel lonely in the 4th corner.( tangible mechanical and corporeal proponents only)

    • Fisho, remember after the GFC and they had all those conferences and even Soros had his own group to rebuild after what they never saw coming, yet after a lot of talking nothing was done. It’s like that as those who control economics won’t allow their static models to be questioned. Now they are all out of ammo, all that’s left is -ve IR’s and maybe some more QE…with a whole lot of bail in’s to follow. As an engineer I don’t know why they can’t apply real science to econ and run a parallel system to verify to at least try to make things better. However, IMO it’s just going to crash and we’ll all be smashed. I agree with you that something needs to be done, but how do we do it when the CB’s and the pollies are stuck in a iron age world view. I’ve worked on control systems and some of that theory might work in econ as you apply feedback to stop instability. It works we’ll in flight controls which is what I did for a while.

      • Yeah Afund a lot of control systems theory is directly applicable and it’s a two way street
        One of the best source of information on Econometric theory in Australia is Robert Kohn and you’ll often see his work on Kalman filtering, Particle Filtering (or any form of Bayesian inference) along with State Space model estimation / extraction referenced in non-linear control system design
        These topics are probably a bit difficult for the average reader to understand but my point is that if these methods work than we all need to understand them and understand their limitations.
        What can we predict, what can’t we predict? when can we use them profitably?
        Personally I don’t see a failure to predict the GFC as a problem because I can still profit from using any method that’s correct 90% of the time. Even if it fails miserable the other 10% of the time.

      • Thanks for the Robert Kohn info, and I looked him up. Chicago and MIT seem to run the word theory in econ and they don’t even rate the research from BoE which is pretty good on some aspects like money creation. Point taken as if you can make the right investment decisions then that’s gold. I know a few high ranking econ professors, and some big econ guys in the US who have econ degrees and CFA’s quals and those with the CFA are way better at investment from my understanding as they are way more wealthy. The professors are tied up in politics and lots of crazy politics at uni, and don’t seem to know what I ask them.. intelligent no doubt, but ?? It’s hard to change the system as those in power will ridicule those who want change. This is typical of any power base so will it ever change?

    • robert2013MEMBER

      I imagine that the trouble with having a place for quants to talk here is that much quant work today is ai driven and much of what the AI discovers is very hard to put into words. There are people working on this but it will be a while before we know how to articulate exactly what it is an ai has learned. Thus I would expect quant meet of discussions to revolve around algorithms not economics or finance. I’m not sure that many of us are up for that kind of discussion.

      • Some quant flows are AI based but I’d say the majority are still human designed and fairly easy to understand for anyone that properly applies themselves. It helps to have good math skills but even that is not essential.

    • The greatest hubris derives from the belief that man can repeal the laws of economics.

      Controlling prices is a socialist’s wet dream.

      I have a message for all those chumps that think it’s possible …

      • Thanks good input. But it is not necessary to really control prices maybe all one needs to do is predict prices or better understand the range of possible prices at any given point in time.
        There are many engineered systems that work in very statistically noisy environments using very poor sensors but still manage to achieve their objective. there are many noise cancellation and noise shaping methods that achieve the apparently impossible because they understand and optimize the result for the band of interest (such as a certain time point or a certain frequency band, it’s not magic just good solid engineering and some signal processing.
        Many newish control systems like Optic Flow based vision systems achieve the “impossible” every day.

    • Fisho, the issue is very simple:
      Economics is about the interaction of 7 billion human beings on this planet. It is impossible to define or articulate those interactions via maths, physics or otherwise. The very attempt (via Keynes) to apply ‘math’ to economics that has led us to this diabolical situation in the first instance.

      Economics is a social science, not a natural science. End of.

      • Dominic I agree 100% but that said it doesn’t mean that you can’t make money by understanding / predicting how markets will behave especially within limited reference frames. If I can be right about both the timing and movements of the markets in response to some perturbations than I can make some serious coin. If we look at step function movements in the market we invariably see corrections with known correction time constants and know overshoot / undershoot magnitude. All that I’m saying is that these responses characteristics are easily understood from a Control systems perspective if you understand how CB’s and Hedge positions interact within the feedback/feedforward mechanisms which control the short term movements /responses of currencies, bonds and equities.
        Personally I’m sick of seeing the short term economic narrative about the response of markets to external disturbances described in hand-waving terms when there are much better ways to describe and even predict these behaviors. That’s where Quants come in.
        Quants will not save the world from the next monumental F-up because F-ing up big is human nature. If the magnitude (or scope) of the disturbance is sufficiently large than it over comes all the inbuilt hedge mechanisms and takes on a life of it’s own.

      • Yeah LTCM was an enormous flameout BUT what’s missing from that story line is just how much money they made before the Flameout and how much of that money was siphoned from the system before and even during the collapse.
        They were all right back at it within 6 months of LTCM’s collapse and they were able to do so because this type of trading was very profitable.
        In a weird sort of way this type of hedging is akin to creating an Insurance company which simply folds every time there’s a major claim. Who doesn’t love the idea of collecting premiums 90% of the time and phoenix-ing when the losses mount only to be reborn during the next boom. I would have thought that Aussie RE Developers would be absolute experts in this particular business model.

      • Yeah I get that, per the GFC the insurance was not mature yet, actions this time around might hinge on thinking its all sorted.

        My view is undersea cables that constitute the greatest store of wealth on the planet are still vulnerable to natural or unnatural events. Hardened Black Box nodes are just reset points and don’t remove the Minsky dynamic.

      • It looks like there;s limited interest in establishing a quant’s corner
        However, I think it would be worth while to maybe look at some event during the week and see how that event looks from a Quant perspective, Examine it using a few simplified tools and understand how well the actual results fit to the expected results and maybe even extract the error function and understand the sources of noise in the system.
        maybe leading by example is the best path forward.

    • Well all jokes aside what simplified tools are you talking about quant? I’d be keen to have a look fvcken.

      • Interesting question: Personally I’d rather keep it all somewhat attached to the real world because I don’t think there’s much value in getting into formulaic approaches like Black Scholes / VAR without first understanding the fundamentals of simple dynamic systems. So I guess I’ll start at the start with analysis of a simple dampened Mass / Spring resonance system and develop the math to describe this function and see if it can be applied to changes in stock values. ….that’s kinda what I’m thinking I’m not sure if I should immediately jump from mechanical to electrical systems because complex Electrical systems are much easier to understand than their mechanical equivalents…at least for me.

      • Well I just don’t know where most people are at wrt understanding the typical time domain response characteristics of higher order systems to external disturbances, so I’m kinda starting with the basics.
        If you’d all rather I just started off with Bayesian Inference and did some sort of system model extraction from the observed data, than I’m happy to go that route.
        I don’t know which approach is preferable, I guess it depends on your background , if you have a very strong statistics background than the latter approach is probably preferable, if you’d rather understand the outcomes as some sort of mechanical/electrical system equivalence than the first approach is probably the best.

  10. When asked about the observation by banking royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne that the use of slogans is undermining institutions in the place of policy debate, the Prime Minister said:

    “Well, I did stop the boats and people who do have a go do get a go under my policies, so I think that’s a pretty good plan. Cheers.”

    Cheers Scummo! 🍻

  11. boomengineeringMEMBER

    A fund, re your gears jumping. First ride all week this morn (over worked). Short test ride. Filed derailer stop and put 10 tooth idler in to wrap chain around 11 on the Cervelo S5 cluster more. Second less gradient of North Head hill in absolute top gear, no jumping. Although also put in new 11 on cluster .
    Wish you let me know earlier could have borrowed the Campi for Adcock Park velodrome ride.

    • I repaired my vintage Xbox, which blew up in a lightning strike early this year. I wasn’t home, nothing was on, but it was plugged in to the wall socket. Blew up the TV / Xbox and hot water unit (landlord had to fix that). And I fixed the TV also as you can see in the photo.
      https://imgur.com/a/NJLwkEx

      I could have bought another for the $50 spare part it cost me to fix it, but the missus gave me this 1 in 2004 as a Birthday present and I would have hated to throw it in hard waste.

      More people should learn to restore / repair. I actually enjoy that part more than the games. I bought an Xbox 360 which also needs a few fixes done. I like doing that stuff more than playing the games.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Gavin good on you, as I said before sometimes I think you would be a lot happier if you took to the tools, in your case electrical/electronics.
        Arrow 2, last WE post sorry about the missing word (not) alone.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Design & making clutch for machine atm, bisalloy . May get mate to wirecut internal &; external teeth tabs on plates to fit spline as not conducive to simple milling.with dividing head.

      • What was wrong with the telly? Fried cap? I’ve got one that was blown up in a lightening strike too. Was thinking about taking it apart.

      • @Timmeh – Powerboard in both blew up. I tried to repair the Xbox 1, didn’t bother with the TV, just replaced the board. Easy as. You could probably find a repair shop to fix the bad capacitor etc.. if you want.. but same price as a replacement part.

    • @BE …I’ve had so much work on like you and not really ridden in three weeks. I did do that mountain bike ride at GlenRock in Newcastle, but that’s it. I hope to ride next weekend though and through the week I’ll get my trainer working so do some training on that; weather here is really sh1t now. I have adjusted my rear derailleur and all works now. It was slightly off so when I was sprinting or out of the saddle up a hill it’d jump. Only half a turn and all ok now.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Glad to hear all OK, two ways of jump
        1/ sideways = adjust screws on derailed, or adjust DI electronic . Adjust (bend) hanger.
        2/ over the top of sprockets (as in my case) = renew sprockets, wrap chain around more.
        Would have been better for you to borrow the Cervelo as the Campagnolo only has 5 high gears 68 chainring.

  12. Structural defects found at Newcastle’s tallest building Verve Residences

    https://twitter.com/newcastleherald/status/1159904050114125824

    Not sure on exactly what it is, as the article is paywalled.. but not a good look when residents have only just started moving in over the last week or so..

    There’s so many more apartments commencing or due to commence construction here.. Sales have supposedly already dried up, so I’m surprised they’re still pressing on, and headlines like this can’t be helping..

    There was also a leak in the building a couple of weeks back that caused flooding across multiple levels..

  13. *Through gritted teeth*

    MMarsh looks like he’s been taking a few wickets in England and has a few not outs.

    Although we’re replete for quicks, and Labuchagne looks to be doing well.

    • bolstroodMEMBER

      Used to be you did not change a winning team…
      but that was before Marsh Mellow came along… after all he IS a wet Australian.

      • 1998 here we come you mean. AS you can see – Chinese banks are just nationalized – no fuss, no contagion, no GFC, no meltdown – just nationalized and absorbed.

        Its a months net trade….not gross, net.

        20 more banks could go and it wouldn’t really matter – thats what people don’t get about China – there is no Chinese crash coming.

      • China boy has a point, how long can the land of the corrupt go with devaluing their currency, bailing out their SOE banks, not get stung by import price inflation, and not collapse?

      • Gav ….

        Does that have anything to do with the U.S. manipulating wheat prices to effect the USSR back in the day … Hudson’s Super Imperialism and Think Tank Memory’s should sort it out for you.

  14. Most Americans believe that a rising tide should lift all boats—that as the economy expands, everybody should reap the rewards. And for two-and-a-half decades beginning in the late 1940s, this was how our economy worked. Over this period, the pay (wages and benefits) of typical workers rose in tandem with productivity (how much workers produce per hour). In other words, as the economy became more efficient and expanded, everyday Americans benefited correspondingly through better pay. But in the 1970s, this started to change.

    https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

    Then some will bang on about fiat did it ….

    • skip’s next post will be about the fallacy of supply/demand. How you can simultaneously flood the market with slaves prepared to work for less than minimum wage, and give workers a greater share of productivity.

      • Strange thing to say considering what the graph depicts pre and post a specific timeline which has broader ramifications.

        Are you saying floor to executive pay ratios is a factor of supply and demand also, pre and post divergence, and how that enabled so many corrosive activities.

    • So what you’re saying is that the ‘temporary’ suspension of the gold standard had nothing to do with it?

      The problem is, skip, that it can be proven both theoretically and empirically. Not to worry though – what we have here is ideology trumping all else. Believe what you want – it’s a free world 😉

      • Yes Dominic I’m say the gold standard has nothing to do with it or the whole free banking period of the 1800s would have never happened, same goes for the great depression, and it was not until WWII that things improved until the second coming of the Laissez-faire set under the auspices of neoliberalism that thing started going down hill again. I mean gold did not stop Gresham’s law or endemic corruption back then.

        Would like to see this empirical evidence and what you believe constitutes theory, fear you don’t grasp the meaning of either.

        Its not a mystery that after decades of Chicago school machinations in removing government oversight or instituting revolving door to forward an ideological perspective culminated in poor underwriting, control fraud, and ludicrous rent extraction. I mean people like Hudson provide a painful accurate history of what happened from first hand experience E.g. no need to concoct ex ante blankets to obfuscate with. BTW the gold standard was fiat at the end of the day, by law, and its rate was fixed by it, hence you could have used anything as a physical anchor point and it would not matter. But hay gold in inherently deflationary so your always going to cop that regardless.

        Seems more a management problem than anything else, strangely or not correlated to mainstream economics during the period in question E.g. its theories and how they are arrived at …

      • Skip, if I could make head or tail of what you’re saying I’d respond. You either understand this situation or you don’t. If you can’t understand how a gold standard acts as a regulator then you don’t understand. It’s that simple.

        And by the way, the last period of genuine laissez-faire economy was back in the late 19th century — a period of very strong economic growth. Ever since the Federal Reserve Act the world has been living on the cocaine high of credit. Esp after 1971.

        Never mind.

      • Your claim about heads or tails is not empiric, more so your loose conjecture about gold and everything being a result of it.

        You seems to lack any historical perspective which does not fit in your gold standard little boxes. The Spanish imploded due to one fleet of gold and silver ending on the bottom of the ocean due to a hurricane, war debts played a bigger role in bad economies than what ever currency system was used, especially post WW1, then you have Vietnam inflation requiring Volcker treatment due to nutty anti taxers taking that option off the table, et al.

        Look the whole currant thing has more to do with stuff like the Powell memo – Citi memo and mobs like ALEC running a corporatist agenda to loot for personal gain [see Munger and PE] than it has to do with currency – that’s without getting into 34T in tax havens. Hence the problem is bigger than whatever currency system is used per se via Bretton Woods it was designed around bancor and instead the U.S. pushed for reserve status e.g. politics [ideological] superseded all other considerations.

        Joan Robinson on why it is so import to study economics
        10 Aug, 2019 at 13:26 | Posted in Economics | Leave a comment

        Joan Robinson – The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.

      • Just to make that super simple for you Dominic …

        Were were on a Fiat system and some thought it should be managed under monetarist ideology, which ultimately failed, only to end up with a quasi monetarist system. Yet neither one can seem to get the human component right because the ex ante cornerstone is not reflective of reality – its a ideological preference …. silly buggers …

      • skippy, my position is very simple: humans cannot be trusted manage complex systems – particularly where those systems rely on variables & factors that are impossible to measure in real time. A committee of twenty Einsteins couldn’t do it if they tried so just let the market take care of it FFS. The market is always right – by definition – as it is simply a voting machine. It reflects the will of all economic actors involved. The only time the market appears to ‘fail’ is when the Govt has plunged their filthy digits into the machinery and contaminated the lubricant that allows all the complex parts to work in unison.

        As for fiat money — it is the root of all that is corrupt about our system. Money that can be printed at will by a select group of humans. Ya think that they wouldn’t abuse that? Again, give the role of money to gold and you withdraw the ability of the elites to abuse the system and the citizens. You cannot create gold at will and this is key to preventing the abuse that inevitably occurs when humans are in charge.

      • Dom – your last comment explains it all and why I am bullish gold. When everyone starts printing like there is no tomorrow then fiats collapse. And everyone is about to start printing like there is no tomorrow ( I know they never stopped printing but what is coming around the corner will dwarf any other printing in human history). Main reason why is because 2008 problems were addressed with more debt and IRs were left too low too long without putting in place any mechanisms to prevent creation of asset bubbles.
        Again, I can be wrong on gold but it will not be because of fundamentals but simply elites finding a way to suppress gold prices.

      • Gold cannot function in markets as constructed to day, necessitate completely imploding the currant one and that would produce a global depression and more than likely WWIII.

        So I don’t see how that fixes anything lest providing gold holders with superior store of price.

      • The market is always right – by definition – as it is simply a voting machine. It reflects the will of all economic actors involved.

        This is an article of faith – a tautalogy fallacy – an in addition simply wrong because not all economic actors have anything close to the same levels of influence.

        The only time the market appears to ‘fail’ is when the Govt has plunged their filthy digits into the machinery and contaminated the lubricant that allows all the complex parts to work in unison.

        This is trivially demonstrable as false even within the confines of hypothetical mental masturbation that libertarians rely on to “prove” whatever they want.

      • smithy, what you say doesn’t make an ounce of sense – but it sounds impressive. I’ll bear it in mind 😉

      • Let me put it in simpler terms then. Like all Libertarians, you rely on circular reasoning (“markets never fail, by definition”), only ever look at the components rather than the system (eg: the standard “two people on an island” example), refuse to consider any assumptions that do not produce the conclusions you want (eg: non-rational actors, incomplete and opaque information) and ignore what actually happens in the real world (eg: the real world).

  15. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Something more important then money and politics and cos I care about you fvkers watch this and then get your GP to give you a referral for a CT scan and find out your calcium score. Especially the northern NSW ultra fit sugar and carb devouring poster on here who ripped me a new one many years back for warning him of heart disease
    About a third of you will have a heart attack by 70
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=UZoQiDaWnuE

    • Mine’s good. I just got a the full once over. I can’t go too hard on the dairy as my cholesterol is naturally high. Damn you genetics for making me so weak. Damn you cheese for being so delicious.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        I’m 45, I just had the overhaul as well. My cholesterol came in at 6.8! And my liver was a little fatty ( too much wine) and yet beyond all conventional thinking my calcium score was a big fat 0 😀 arteries completely clear so cholesterol is not a something to judge your health by. 10 years ago I would of been put on statins and after that it’s life over
        My father got his done and came in 200! He’s gotta change his diet big time

      • It’s always good to know. The old boy had a heart attack this year. It wasn’t a biggie and he’s recovered well. That he lived off sugar, bacon and used to smoke 50 a day means we expected it to hit him earlier and harder. Nope, his previous check up was triple thumbs up. My mum looks after herself and has all sorts of medical things to keep on top of. You work with what you’ve got but you need to know what you’ve got to work with. The magic of Medicare meant it only cost me some time to find out about my high cholesterol. Two trips to the GP with a short visit to the pathologist inbetween. As Mr. Savvy says, go and do it.

      • Damn you genetics for making me so weak. Damn you cheese for being so delicious.

        +Gazillions.

      • Birth lotto ….

        Turning 59 in a few days and can out pace the kids at work without any special diet or exercise, can’t even remember the last time I had the flu or was really sick other than the occasional gastro.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        My only check up was over 15yrs ago ( never voluntarily go to doctors) but when I got hit by a car they said had a heart of a 20yo athlete so Ill probably keel over one day and it will be said why didn’t he ever get check ups.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      “Something more important then money and politics and cos I care about you fvkers”

      I love you too man

    • thanks Savvy … definitely worth watching. Will approach my next annual check up with a more informed perspective …

  16. If Western governments put a stop to turbo charged immigration (particularly from places like India), then Uber is really screwed.

      • If I was Uber, I would be a genuine technology company and develop an Uber platform for the taxi industry, and similar platforms for other industries. They could be a service bidding platform for numerous service industries around the world.

        They have the technology to be something for pretty much all industries. Imagine if Microsoft was just technology for a car, rather then technology for computers for any industry.

        They can still collect and sell data, but legal issues (such as ‘contractor’ vs ’employee’) would be removed.

      • what have they got that’s so great? Pull the curtain aside on these technology companies and it’s all BS hiding behind money printing/ultra low interest rates/wage suppression.

  17. Oh dear, this is getting juicy.

    “The whole thing stinks of a Ponzi scheme,” he said. “It looks like the developer was still trying to get money from new buyers to pay the lender or other buyers.

    “When they called me I was already suspicious that something wasn’t right. But I didn’t think it would go this far.”

    Ralan owners waiting to hear what has become of their units on Friday. Supplied

    Another owner at Arncliffe, who called himself John, said: “This is illegal if they had intentionally deceived us knowing they were insolvent.”

    Another buyer was in an even worse condition. She told The Australian Financial Review she personally loaned money to the company under a “private lending contract” without the purchase of an apartment.

    https://outline.com/CVdJEG

    At least it seems it’s mostly chinese getting screwed. Excuse me if I don’t have any sympathy for hordes of them coming here and driving us out housing and jobs.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      It would seem the maxim ‘You can’t cheat an honest person’ would apply here. In shovels.

      No sympathy for anyone who is loosing something besides their deposit/completion payment.

      I hope that woman in particular starts a gofundme so I can comment on it. Happy to give her a dollar for that privilege.

      I can also let her know about this litigation find I’m starting once enough claimaints have been found and verified and the filing costs threshold for the action has been met…

    • This is exactly the kind of thing you’d expect late-bubble. People taking more and more risks because prices always go up and this covers up a multitude of sins and shortcuts. Soon enough it stops being a one off and becomes the whole business model, and then you only need the ponzi wheel to stop turning very briefly and everything falls over very fast.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        It could also be our cognitive bias… and I know I don’t know enough to tell which it really is.

        And this cavernous forum of repeating sounds doesn’t help much with that last bit. Though the debate going on above about whose favourite British liberal modern philosopher is best has really stirred my onions. That’s not something you see every day. Or ever.

        Just waiting now for someone to forget their manners they’re so agitated and call someone else a total Kant.

  18. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    Well, this takes the cake. A LARGE block in Brisvegas is now 405 sq. m.

    https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-everton+park-131554122

    And some poor kids will think they’re in heaven. Only saw 4 couples visit the house open this afternoon and, after telling the agent not interested, still got 2 texts “are you interested?” type questions! Between visits the agent was looking very bored but when asked said “things are back like they were” CRICKETS!

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      I was having a yack with a mate who has a place in the middle burbs of Melbourne (Murumbeena) who was saying he thought there was much less gardening taking place in what was once a fairly leafy burb, but which is now slowly getting the living bejesus subdivided out of it. Even worse are all those punters buying 400-500 metre blocks in places down our way like Armstrong Creek and in loads of outer burbs around Australian cities.

      But the thing that freaks me out every time I drive the Geelong ring road or the Geelong road to Melbourne (and I suspect would be replicated elsewhere), is how many places – in estates which are alongside freeways or major roads – are backed right up against the traffic, often with a bloody great fence – in rust coloured panels about Geelong (Highton) – and which seem to me to be less than 50 metres from the traffic. The noise must be fairly mind sapping.

      I would have thought that in a place the size of Australia we could at least get a decent ‘green’ (I am only talking a few trees and bushes) belt between housing and the traffic.

      The housing constructed in the last generation in Australia cheapens what was once a decent place to live.

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Gunna ….snap!
        Posted this observation a few days ago ….yes indeed …
        Melbourne ..that most gentle of old empire legacy cities is well advanced on the way to sh1thole status …so sad to see …

        “Was in Victoria last week ….out on great ocean road ….nice place but swimming in Chinese tourists in unmarked white buses with Chinese drivers ( and or presumably guides ) ……not sure what exactly Straya is getting from this boom in tourists.

        On way back via Geelong skirted around the freeways to get on the Hume back to Sydney

        Noticed a new chunk of freeway being developed out in that western area …not sure of the suburb but was admiring the garish green and blue glass panels on top of the 12 foot high sound barrier and wondering why on earth they were there . Then it dawned on me ……it’s to let some sunlight shine onto the new houses behind them that were all built up to with in a meter of the wall . Who in their right mind would buy a house abutting a 12 foot wall ….glass top or no fcuking glass top?

        Who would have thought that in one of the “worlds most liveable cities “ a few meters at the back of a sound barrier might be left for a few trees .

        It is such a shame that Straya has such a stortage of Land that such monstrosities are required . They say sh1thole far more elequently that anything else I can think of .”

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Yeah mate, that is it entirely. I can tell you that around Geetroit they have a few coloured perspex panels in amongst the mainly rust coloured jobs to let light in. Up closer to Melbourne (around Point Cook – where a generation ago it was wide open paddocks) yep, they have the houses built right up to the edge of the freeway. Personally I would have thought half reasonable planning laws should be preventing that kind of stuff.

  19. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Back in deep dark conservative Queensland. They don’t like nuclear. Kinda accepting renewables now but still love coal. Love their franking credits but get it confused with negative gearing. Love Scummo. By no means mention he might be a little bit fake. Love Rowan Dean. No really, they think he be hilarious. Want a tank driven over greenies.

    Very suspicious of me and me mate Gra. We’re both rough as guts looking but think differently, talking about wind and solar farms. We’ve both got the western Qld gravel accent so must sound odd. Greenies probably wouldn’t come near us.

    Bloody weird place when you’ve been away for a while.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Darling Downs. Talk of a local nuclear reactor has them spooked. Also sick of their hospital beds being full of furreners…and of grandkids having no future in Straya. Absolutely love their franking credits and house prices…can’t stress that enough.

      • They want a future for their kids yet keep the rorts that are destroying the chances for them. The mind boggles.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        It’s been chewing at me for the last two days. They really can’t see the problem.

      • It’s because they think that things are the same as when they were younger. They are referencing their lived experiences and believe that things haven’t changed. Older folk I know do it all the time. Its really funny when they just use all the current terms. So you get this hybrid of advice based in experience yet using what they pick up from today’s news broadcasts. The kids don’t stand a chance.

      • Yes a guy I work with was telling me a few months back that he hopes house prices keep going up so that he can retire on the profit from the home that he lives in because he and the missus have bugger all super. I didn’t have the heart to tell him that living in a caravan isn’t that comfortable and maybe if he hadn’t spent so much on a home in the first place he could be saving more for his retirement now. I also didn’t ask him how he expects his two daughters to afford a home.

      • I was flicking through the channels early in the evening late this week when I stopped on the Drum. They were talking about the fall out of the banking royal commission and a guy was saying that he gets complaints from young ones that the banks won’t lend enough any more. He didn’t seem to recognise that maybe the problem wasn’t big enough loans, but house prices not matching economic fundamentals, like income and expenditure. It’s just taken as fact that asking prices are what they are worth and all you need is a bigger loan.

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      The problem on here is that youse are all so far up each others commie ar$es doing the circle jerk that you just cannot see any of the truths. People on the dole have done nothing to deserve it, by definition. Locals would much rather be on the dole, playing video games, watching p0rn and taking the unsociable drugs than earning $17,000 per week. Freshly imported human capital are great workers willing to do that week’s work for $1,700, or even $700. I even know a lot of girl ones willing to deliver relations for that sort of money. So we should encourage many more vibrants to come here so as to maximise our potential considering the drain on society that young locals are.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        My young mate was getting 15K wk itax free in Dubai ,on site machining about. 15yrs ago.
        He used to do 3-5 mth stints, India, China, Indonesia but nearly died one term in India. The next term came home and used to complain about gut aches. About 5 mths later they found a bug growing inside him.

      • A pineapple says the “$17k/week” is an extrapolation from one outlier example of an exceptionally busy week and customer prepared to pay to have the job done ASAP that’s never happened before or since.

      • Yeah Jesus Christ. For that sort of money I’ll sign up tomorrow, but $17k P/week. You’d see less than half after tax. So yeah, probably not worth it.

        It sounds like to me, this employer is saying look how much you can earn.. but in reality is paying tradies peanuts and saying after 4-5 years you’ll get an increase. Lol..

        It’s so dishonest it would make ScoMo blush.

      • I wish there was more of him about. He writes a column for Bloomberg and used to write one for The Independent. I’d love to hear a long interview with him about the current state of things.

      • It is. Very weird on his comments about deeply negative rates and banning cash considering the IMF paper and Scummo pushing through that legislation last week about cash. It felt odd watching it and knowing it was from three years ago considering events transpiring now.

  20. The Traveling Wilbur

    So nothing? nothing? about the *proper* funny shaped ball code game going on as y’all review your Japanese film collections? nothing?

    Gun shy, much? You’re leading!

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Actually, that’s quite close to home considering my tales of woe in Queensland up higher👆👆

      My mum went to school in Jundah. Good to see the Advocate supporting Thomson River country.

      • Really? Jundah? Not too many people can claim that. Those that can likely know of all the other clans. My mum could do that for large parts of north queensland …she didn’t know everyone of course but the degrees of separation between her and the person she’d just met who was from up that way was usually much less than 7. (not saying that Jundah is in NQ of course).

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Oh yeah, lots and lots of country folk know both sides of my family. Sometimes that’s good, sometimes bad.

  21. Not sure if anyone has already posted this
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-09/deeply-negative-nominal-rates-are-their-way
    Please no comments on how crap my life is to be reading about negative interest rates at this time on a Saturday night, I’m fully aware.

    However the last couple of paragraphs were interesting regarding timing which I know occupies many peoples thoughts atm
    `Following a credit crisis, government finances always come under strain. Lagarde will have a primary objective to finance them through quantitative easing, likely to be far greater than seen heretofore. By taking an aggressive approach to negative interest rates, government funding will be better facilitated, at least in the short-term. At the same time, negative interest rates in the order of three or four per cent will raise the value of existing government bonds, giving the appearance of solvency to the banks. But negative interest rates on the required scale will cause depositors to seek alternatives for the reasons described above. In short, they are likely to lead to a crack-up boom, where with a gathering herd instinct, first large and then smaller depositors seek to buy anything just to get rid of deposit money.

    Already, we have some advance warning of these potential developments in the rapidly rising prices of gold and bitcoin. Given the trap that Messrs Argarwal & Kimball appear to have unwittingly set for central banks and especially the ECB, it is unlikely the destruction of the value of deposit money will be a drawn-out process. A crack-up boom is not a boom at all, but a currency collapse. And given it will emerge from a systemic crisis, likely to commence in the Eurozone but certain to rapidly become global, deeply negative nominal interest rates will ensure a currency collapse happens very quickly once it starts.

    Given the rapidity with which the global economy is now declining, we will be lucky if a credit crisis leading to deeply negative nominal rates doesn’t happen later this year. The pace at which depositors in the banks then become aware of what is happening to their fiat currency will determine the speed and extent of the currency collapse.`

      • Lol don’t I know it!!! Just had a little dust up with the boomer olds I’m forced to live with thanks to this fckng bubble and fckd up economy/society. So i decided to read that. I’m upping the amount of my matured td I’m talking out of cash and putting into gold. In reference to someone who posted on mining bia Bogan’s qld comment above boomers keep referencing things back to how things were like in theirlived experience and they just don’t like hearing about changed reality even when they’re starting to get it (cos i force the message down their throat). Urgh I’m so done with everything.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        That’s the way Poppy. Repeat, repeat, repeat.

        I smile to myself when I hear the oldies saying the kids have no future in this country. I’ll call that a minor win. They already hate darkies(*waves at Sky*) so immigration is covered. Now working on less taxes mean no schools for the grandkids and hospital beds for them.

        Just got to get them away from Rowan Dean. Just WTF is the love for him!!?? But I know they’ll return to him as soon as I leave. 🤐

    • Check out the Blyth link below. He covers long term rates in the vid. I also like his suggestion for older folk. An enforced three martinis and cigarettes each day from 65 with voting rights taken away from 70. Bring on old age! Though I’d prefer bloody Mary’s. That way I’d be getting my vitamins at the same time. With the occasional white Russian for calcium.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        There’s a simple test that should be applied to old people before giving them the Blythe treatment, do their grandkids want to spend time with them? If not, soylent green them all the way. If they’re too old for that test, they can have a pass. If they don’t have kids/grandkids of their own they can borrow some from the local library for testing purposes.

    • All this money sloshing around – why not cut taxes and just print? If we are under capacity there will be no inflation.

    • Have a look at North/Adams’ In The Interests of the People channel
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqRcD-bRdMw

      They link the proposal to make cash transactions of 10k or more illegal with an eventual move towards eliminating cash altogether which would allow negative interest rates. As we know, negative rates would cause a bank run as savers try to preserve the value of their deposits

      John Adams’ submission to Treasury:
      https://www.adamseconomics.com/post/cash-transaction-ban-consultation-submission-john-adams

    • Bit of reverse culture shock on returning “home” eh Pop?

      In a previous life that had me living abroad, before the Asia stint, I received embassy briefings on culture shock (I was on a military exchange thingy) The good news is you actually work your way through culture shock. The bad news is when it comes to reverse culture shock, you don’t. It’s incurable.

      Enjoy!

      • Ha! I experienced reverse culture shock for the first time at 16 after a year in exchange in Europe. Luckily we got training on that. And with having lived os/oz/os I knew I had to prepare for this move. Funnily enough this blog helped a lot. It’s been a pretty easy move when I think about but that’s cos i learnt a lot about managing expectations while in China. Unsurprisingly China is an amazing teacher of that! 😉

    • Chin-up old girl, if I remember correctly you’re still young enough to profit from the collapse of today’s stupidity.
      IMHO complete financial collapse is what anyone under 40 should be praying for because it’s the only real chance that they’ll have to succeed. If it takes another 15 years to collapse then this whole generation will be completely F’ed but if the system collapses tomorrow than within 10 years will be back to a half way sensible system where your labour has real value and you can build real wealth based on savings and long term asset growth.

      • I’m a few years past 40 and unfortunately I can’t work full time due to some health constraints, so my hope is that it falls over within the next couple of years but that I make smart enough decisions to weather the fall reasonably well with my savings intact as I can’t depend on earning lots from my labour after the turmoil of transitioning to a saner system. I’m reasonably optimistic I’ll manage to do it, but that requires compulsive reading!!! In fact if it doesn’t fall over soon I think I’ll still be ok if I make some smart decisions and am patient, I’m trying to set myself up to be ok under either scenario. Luckily I don’t require much to make me happy and I am happy to live a frugal life

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      If some chunt did comment on how crap your life is to be reading about negative interest rates at this time on a Saturday night, remind them their life must be more crap to be reading about your take on it around the same time!

      PS good luck with the olds.
      PPS @Chinajim. True. LOL. But it makes you more experienced and more aware/enlightened than most other people in the room IRL.

      • Thanks TTW! Things are actually pretty good with the olds so I can’t really complain. Mum’s in a heap of pain atm due to recovering from some pretty serious surgery and she made a snippy comment about my cfs which pissed me off and she probably regrets saying it. Harry’s a mate so I’d be offended if he didn’t sh1t stir 🙂

  22. Complex Carbon Unit

    Popcod, try and stay calm fella it will all come out in the wash as they say, I’m
    Actually a bit frightened of it all as I have a disability , paraplegia and have no real
    Way of physically protecting myself if things start to get a bit violent if the sh1t hits the fan.
    People often say to me don’t read all the doom and gloom stuff but the way I look at it is il be able to work out a way through all this if I have an idea what’s happening, it’s always worked for me in the past so it will in the future, I guess I may think a somewhat differently in some regards to others 40 + years in a wheelchair hasn’t been easy but them iv seen quadriplegics who can’t even get a fly of their face someone has to do it for them …..

    • I’m calm, thedust up came because of something tangentially related to the larger situation but something I think you’d understand only to well given you’re in a wheel chair (and for that you have all my compassion). Most people wouldn’t consider it a dust up but we don’t do conflict in this family. I have one of those medical conditions which can be classified as an invisible disability which is poorly understood and half the medical profession doesn’t believe exists. I get zero government support, not even a healthcare card but I’m incredibly lucky my patents support me and it’s a tolerable situation most of the time.
      Like you I firmly believe in being as informed as possible about everything in the hope that some smart decision making will protect me.

      • That’s not a disability. In fact the most creative people are left handed. (Many actors etc..). Disclaimer: I’m left handed. Not in the Haroldus sort of way either.

  23. More Blyth.
    This is an updated Global Trumpism. He’s refined it and talks about things like Brexit. Worth watching again. However, the gold is during the Q&A at the end. Trump to win again. Tariffs on the EU after China. Climate change response. And, long term political trends.
    https://youtu.be/KGuaoARJYU0

    • desmodromicMEMBER

      Agree the gold is in the Q&A. His response to the question on Elizabeth Warren’s policies and prospects described Labor’s recent election loss.

      • thanks footsore … a good listen. Worth it. Sitting here in the US I know it the new work week has started there but catching up on the OZ side for me… appreciate your post …

  24. If only they’d build a nuclear station upriver from me so I can free flow infinite hot water for soaking in ol copper infinitely. Or maybe just goo the gaps in the paddock holden for the fancy seating humps and plonk it. Mabel, Aunty Glad & Irene, won’t be spoiled with an in house bathroom atleast. Have to relocate the esky first though n move the roof spotties to give it the penthouse treat, good for my environment eh, ma, told ya a green one would come back in fashion. I likes to do somtin for my enviromints don’t you worry about that. Man tray rules ok, stop ya belittlin fancy man caves. Let me tell you, what is good for Queensland is good for Australia!

  25. https://www.smh.com.au/education/heavy-handed-schools-crack-down-on-out-of-area-enrolments-20190809-p52fpd.html

    Under the changes, every principal will be given a student population limit based on the number of permanent buildings at their school, and will not be given demountables if they exceed their student cap due to out-of-area enrolments

    I am not exactly sympathetic to the out of area thing, but how about importing less migrants to clog up the schools with their offspring anyway, rather than rationing f%#[email protected] demountables like they are the gold standard for housing school students anyway FFS?? CVNTS.

    • What state’s allow the children of temporary residents free access to state school’s? Make they go private like we do with their healcare coverage.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Dear Hugh.

      As a NZer livin’ (not to be confused with Levin) in Aus A) hugs for yesterday, the team were staunch. Result is irrelevant. B) you should kiss the ground your last Labor PMs have walked on. You want a frame of reference for that? Look at the last 10-years of Australia, the UK, or the leadership of the EU.

      • The Travelling Wilber … Thank you for the kind comments.

        We are awaiting major urban land use / housing announcements from the NZ Govt by the end of August.

        There are enormous pressures on them to deliver … belatedly.

      • Epstein was inside a facility run by the DOJ, whose members operate under the auspices of the Attorney General, who was appointed by President Trump.

        Of course, it must have been the Clintons! It’s so obvious!!!

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I see unluck in the future of those young girls who put their hands up and pointed the finger at various powerful and connected individuals.

      • Yep! I must admit I’m not in the least bit surprised.
        all I can think of is the lyrics

        I’ve been undressed by kings and I’ve seen some things
        That a woman ain’t s’posed to see

        Trust me I’ve seen some things that a Man ain’t s’posed to see, especially when I was in Japan (F-me-sideways those guys were degenerates) especially on holidays OR who remembers the legendary parties with Henry Nicholas back in the Tech boom…f’me I don’t know how I even survived.
        Yep lots of important secrets need to be put to bed permanently.

      • I’m early 80s so the late 70s ramp up was still in full swing, personally knew some of the people that started off just like in the movie Blow. Picking old abandoned wild hemp farms in the mid west late at night [early 70s], which then half was sold [almost a ton] to buy primo to mix and sell as top shelf. That quickly move on to coke as tastes and income suited, grew to national distribution with international connections and all facilitated by white collar investors.

        Don’t remember how many times I was offered to assist in the core business, not to mention be a high end seller, something about looks and demeanor not sending up red flags.

        The curious thing was I saw the same kind of sociological dynamic whilst working for big C-corps, taping me on the shoulder and asking if I would be interesting in being mentored or assisted by some C-suit executive. Same thing happening at private social gatherings with people in the entertainment industry, small party at a big casting agents place on the Beverly Hills crest, no one told me it was a pool party … dang those sheer dolphin shorts were the only thing in the guest room wardrobe ….

        Moved to Boulder Colorado and same bloody thing … big house on the way into Boulder where big party’s included everyone about, judges, academics from CU, business people, government [federal and state] people all whilst being the biggest dealer i the region. Got done in the end and got a year in a white collar prison resort, not that people with money can buy top accommodation in some county lock up like Aspen or Vale et al ….

        Seems Australia’s habit is 4.1tons now ….

      • TT …

        Its direct observation that questions most of the political PR [both sides] that has been spewed for decades. Reagan knew all about Florida and did nothing, like Bush Jr wrt the FBI pointing out mortgage fraud, because it would cause a recession to do anything about it. It was only after a few epic public shooting wars in daylight that things changed because the optics were that bad, can’t have the unwashed running for cover at the shopping mall now.

        Lmmao FF today and its just a sign of social breakdown … but government spending in core social goods is forbidden because it would screw with the bootstrapping free market narrative that enables the elites to loot and cram down everyone else … chortle …

        No G&T please, prefer a few top shelf spirits, schofferhofer served Belgium style, and a few old reds …

  26. Epstein suicide: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJQCSf7A44Y

    I guess you don’t cross the Clintons or the Royal Family, and you definitely don’t cross both.

    Still, the reality that the left is a bunch of pedophiles who worship satan is becoming more and more well known. Next it will turn out that the feminists are hand in glove with the biggest organ harvesting scam on the planet… abortion.

    Apparently trafficking children, drugs and engaging in the most disgusting sh!t is par the course for progressive cultist scum.

    • https://www.coreysdigs.com/trafficking/jeffrey-epsteins-st-thomas-network-comms-and-an-elite-school/

      If you think the Clinton’s are lefties I think you should get your biases checked, blue dog corporatist dinos are right wing, lest you forget what the whole Third Way – Washington Consensus is all about.

      Hilary was a Goldwater girl, she and Bill went democrat party after his loss. They were the ones that reformed the Dems into a neoliberal party contra its old labour roots …

      For that matter its a give in that the Republicans are corrupt to the core.

      • How you arrive at your conclusion is beyond me … I’m saying the outrage is ludicrous considering the known – knowns from a historical perspective and only amplified by the morons trying to politicize it for short term propaganda PR gain.

        Tell me again which ideological mob forwarded wealth is a virtue in its own right and all the baggage that comes with it …

      • to be honest, the same people starve children to death or kill them with bombs in various places around the world and no one really seems to care

        I don’t see why fuking them on a luxurious island resort is any more abhorrent than that. In fact, its probably preferable if you had to choose

      • interested partyMEMBER

        “”And if anyone thinks this is something new …. chortle …. its been going on since time immortal ….”””

        you need help.
        Any respect you had of mine just vaporised……second time you have said something like this that I am aware of…..gave you a pass the first time but it now appears to be a belief that “since antiquity….so what”?

        Don’t bother responding. Get help.

    • Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

      Satanists but no Mossad? Even though there’s direct connections to the main protagonists?

      That Q fella is quite effective I must say. He was smart using Brits and Rome, those perennial enemies of American Freedom.

    • You sound like a raving lunatic. You off your meds?

      Epstein was inside a facility run by the DOJ, whose members operate under the auspices of the Attorney General, who was appointed by… President Trump.

      It must have been the “left”!

      😂😂😂

      • Dear goat ….

        Most these people are christinoids …. jebus wept … slavery was endemic in his time and he promoted it. Not to mention in marry olde england heaps of young girls magically got pregnant out of wedlock, whilst working for some wealth sort, got the treatment at church and had to stand in the door way to accept the congregations scorn.

        Yet what does all of this have to do with economics.

      • Are you even aware that Bill Clinton was about to close the deal on the Grand Bargain to privatize social security and end medicare, but for the Monica scandal, seems some of the Republicans were not happy about him stealing their thunder, goat said they were the chosen ones to administrate humanity …

    • Frederic Raphael wrote the Eyes screenplay and in a book later described the working process with Kubrick who, he said, lacked creative invention,being a technician. That article typically gives the director more thematic consistency and relies on inference. Interesting in a way, and even semi plausible, but not cogent.

  27. It’s ok. Epstein’s not dead. He’ll face justice after he’s busted out of Area 51 with Biggie, 2pac and Elvis.

      • reusa …

        Elites care about only one thing … their back pocket and how that might effect them in the here and now and how it could effect their offspring … its like people don’t understand the basics behind biopolotics or something … forlorn hope – ?????

  28. Apparently in NSW there is only one approved way to shop for a suitable school, and that is by buying a house in that particular school district.
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/heavy-handed-schools-crack-down-on-out-of-area-enrolments-20190809-p52fpd.html
    I certainly understand the dilemma of our education system that sees out of district students flocking to one particular school (that prints slightly better Naplan / ATAR results) while their immediate neighborhood school sits half empty. In the end this just becomes an unsupportable business resource allocation issue.
    BUT I still can’t help but think there are better ways to manage our School / Teaching resources and still support Aspirant School shoppers. Should your financial ability to buy a house in the wealthy Northern / Eastern Suburbs really be the sole determining factor for access to the best public schools? It seems to me that there should be other choices for families that value education but lack the financial resources to go to Private schools or buy a house in a better suburb.

    • Yeh – same for Queensland too – Brisbane – more to the point… Local folklore abounds with tales of “leaners” who pay other ‘leaners’ to confirm they’ve been renting at that address for the past 4-5 years, only to get undone by the greed of the second set of leaners who confirm the same thing for a bunch of other people applying for the same school. So when it turns out that there’s 15 families who have lived in the same house for the past 4-5 years, alarm bells start ringing and the whole gig is up.

      But hey! markets, no?

      • Personally I favor expanding the School districts and making High Schools within these larger districts more specialized.
        One could specialize on Sports the next could be the ultimate Tradie school with unbelievable workshops and practical skills development centers while the third school focus on Drama and the Arts that’d still allow room for a fourth school that focused on Technology and the Sciences. In my mind it is about delivering the best education that we can with the available resources , the only way to achieve this goal with fixed teaching resources is to permit / encourage specialization (and this requires some level of school choice)

      • What I find interesting upon reflection is that we had exactly the school system that I’m proposing 40 years ago.
        We had excellent TAFE’s that were typically entered after completing year10
        We had construction jobs and other work places for those that decided that neither TAFE nor UNI were anywhere for them, many of the guys that took this route became really good sports players.
        we had a reduced number of high schools for years 11 and 12, most of these kids were University bound so the curriculum was focused around thees educational needs and supporting their developing career choices.
        There was this specialization in latter secondary education and a variety of good Tertiary education choices, so maybe this is a cases where going back-to-the-future might be worth a thought.

    • NAPLAN results should not be made public. It’s there as a tool for school funding and pedagogy improvement within schools. Teaching kids for NAPLAN is stupid too.

    • No mention of international students. Does this mean they get to stay at the schools while Aussie siblings of older kids are refused? My kids school has almost 1/3rd demountables!

  29. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Gavin,what did you glean from your pursuits re bonds.? Seems like TIBs or linkers may be the way to go but why would you go US when Aussie may be safer as they have less dept ? Complete novice asking. btw they rolled over my TD without me realizing so can start now.

    • Boom i don’t think either US or Aus will default on their bonds… if in trouble they can print money. So you are safe in either case.

      Buying US bonds currently gets you a slightly better yield but it exposes you to foreign exchange risk (ie if the AUD goes up and USD goes down, you lose money).

      It honestly depends what you are after. How soon you need the money. And what you eventually need it for.

      If it’s absolute safety then online Australian “high interest” savings accounts or TDs are still a pretty good option, you get over 2% and the Government guarantee…

      (Or if you want to make money… MB fund? Riskier obviously).

    • Lol, leave Sydney. Seriously.. I am…it’s a joke.. worst case scenario I’ll buy an acreage and build a mudbrick home myself. Won’t cost me $1M either. Probably do it for $300k or less..

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      That should have come with a trigger warning for anyone who ever lived in England. Saw the photo at the start of the article. PTSD triggered. Closed the page. All that needed seeing.

      The new owners will have a long, miserable and very open life (as they’ll hear everything their kids and neighbours say from every room). $2m+? I’d rather have bought a 4bedroom apartment with great sky views. 😉

      • I’m not sure if they were plastic surgeons. I think it’s the house of the family that subdivided the hill. I always wondered what looked like inside as we used to ride our bicycles up and down the hills when they were subdividing the area. They really went for it when they built that one.
        The old matriach of that family used to live on that awesome place on Heavey Cres just before you hit Mullins. It has the long driveway that goes up the hill.

      • Always makes me scratch my head when you see these huge houses. The bedroom is so big that they have to put a couple of lounge chairs in it to fill it up. Like, what normal human gets out of bed and then thinks, i’ll sit in this chair in my bedroom? I can see it being of use to the likes of reus for extra activities, but normal people?

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        the insurmountable problem with that place is that it’s in Cairns.

        Cairns, the place you drive through because they insisted on building the airport there.

    • good catch. good comments on that one too (at least the first 4 or 5, not gonna take responsibility for the content of a ZH thread!).

  30. Stewie GriffinMEMBER

    The age of unrestricted growth is over. It was a good run. But now we’ve got to live within certain ecological and resource budgets which means we’ve also got to live within some fiscal and economic budgets.

    Virtually nobody in power wants to do either. Maybe a few here and there, most of them recently retired or close to it. The remainder all want business-as-usual (BAU) to continue, especially those that just hooked a finger around the brass ring of success.

    The big problem with BAU is that it’s a broken model without a future….Which means that if you are 29 years old, you’ve been alive when half of all the fossil fuels ever burned throughout all of human history have been burned. Half! In just 29 years!

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-10/hard-truth

    This article is pretty interesting, and is along my line of thinking that the reason interest rates are so low, is that this actually necessary in order to justify the capital expenditure needed to keep the marginal fuel suppliers, US shale oil, in business.

    Fossil fuel costs are embedded in every facet of modern life, almost as much oil goes into a steak as water – the gas used to produce fertilizer to grow the grains that get transported to the feedlots, that feed the cattle hat are transported to the feedlots, then brought to the slaughter house, then pack on plastic trays and cling wrap refined from oils, before being transported to supermarkets, then driven home and wacked on the BBQ. Embedded oil costs are every where.

    The issue is it isn’t fact that oil is going to disappear over night, the issue is that the marginal supplier requires more and more capital in order to meet the market and ensure oil costs remain within a certain range, which allows all the other economic activity to take place to the scale it does within the economy.

    When energy costs rise substantially, it is a painful in the west, but deadly in developing nations where high energy prices immediately feed into higher food prices, which creates instability of the likes last seen during the Arab spring.

    The BAU crowed want the current economic paradigm to continue for as long as possible, and this is only possible if energy prices remain in a certain range, and to facilitate that now requires interest rates at near zero percent in order to justify the outlays on franking fields, that would be completely uneconomic if interest rates were to properly price the risk that they represent. Albert Edwards from SocGen’s Bond Ice age thesis is as much tied to the cost required to allow the marginal oil producer to economically deliver oil into the market at a particular price range, as it has to do with demographic change.

    Basically imho the global economy is trapped between a rock and hard place, and as we permanently approach zero. It isn’t just VIX volatility that is being suppressed by low interest rates.

    • I agree the path we are on is totally unsustainable and the lifestyles we current lead are not possible for all Earth’s population. Nobody wants to admit this, but it’s why I’m attracted to living off grid. Big water tanks, solar power + battery and growing a portion of my own food.

      I actually think we would all be happier also, with less. Less junk, less stress, less emails to catch up on. The only thing I’d miss is flying for travel, I mean I hate flying but it’s necessary to visit other parts of the world.

      I will also struggle without meat, tried going vegan before. Not easy. Especially if you’re into weight training, but I could eventually adopt.

      I saw this video last night on Eltham in 1985. They were fighting against over development etc.. seems parts of Eltham have lost that battle. Some parts still have dirt roads etc.. but seems they are losing that battle..

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0dkjUFXf3I

      But 1 thing to note is that they looked healthier, more fulfilled and at peace. Says something.. as opposed to chasing material gain anyway.

      It’s like the movie “They Exist” when he puts the glasses on and the billboards say “consume”.. that’s our society. Consume until you’re happy and you’re in debt. They want us in debt from birth to death..

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Shale oil? Shale oil? Seriously? The reason interest rates are so low is ’cause shale?

      I hesitate to sound like ChinaBob, but they are low due to two things. One I don’t know much about, but understand how it applies to interest rates and wages. The other I’m intimately familiar with.

      This long march to financial disinfranchisement and self destruction is being brought to you by idiots. Absolute idiots are in charge of this. Ever since 2008.

      The other thing being, that if you want to make things cost more (to raise inflation), you can either raise rates or wages. There are no other options. Only one is a sane option, but they are both true. Therefore, cutting rates is going to do what now? (hint: supressing feedback loop – dampener *waves @CB*)

      Just because it hasn’t worked since 2008 doesn’t mean they won’t keep trying! And it wasn’t due to shale back then that they cut. Or in 2011. Or on 2014. More recently, maybe. But that’s conincidence.

      • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

        US Shale Oil production is the major marginal supplier of oil – take it out of the equation and oil prices rise to levels that cause instability in developing nations and recessions in Western nations. US shale oil can only come onto the market thanks to massive capital outlay, with a much faster run off period to recoup return, basically they’ve grabbed the tiger by the tail and can’t let go, they need to continuously invest in new wells to replace the ones that expire.

        Our civilization is built around energy. Bolstrood gave a link the other day about the environment and some environmental scientists who only gave humans another 10 years before we were extinct. I’m not that pessimistic, I realistically give us about 10 years before the implications of living in a world of relative resource scarcity starts to become undeniable.

        https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/08/world-applied-green-sanctions-australia/#comment-3407383

        Exponential population growth and economic development is a result of exponential growth in fossil fuel usage, which doesn’t always agree with most people’s linear thinking. If a noxious weed growing in a pond doubles in the surface area it occupies each day, and it takes 30 days for it to cover half the pond, how long before it covers the entire pond?

        The Overton window in terms of acceptable discussion doesn’t just extend to political view points – there are some scientific and economic topics that are too genuinely ghastly to ever fully contemplate. It is part of the human condition to shut out the inevitable horror and inevitability of our own deaths…. if it happens at the individual level, whose to say our civilization/society isn’t as collectively suffering the same cognitive dissonance.

  31. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Feel like a dinosaur, just finished drawing up the clutch outer and inner tabbed plates . the old fashioned way with beautifully precise crafted architects instruments. Did have Autocad 98 then 2000 but took much longer than a scrappy piece of paper freehand so dumped them.
    Would have been handy now though for the CNC wire cutter.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Dude. Now you’re talking. It’s like the difference between draughting a board design and then fabricating it, or the difference between creating an algorithm (properly) and then implementing the sh1thouse code required by the craptastic tools provided to you by microshaft and blind-oracle that you’re forced to use.

      Autocad was groundbreaking amazing stuff. Still doesn’t beat a mechanical pencil and decent German made drawing instruments. Even today. Or English actually. Bugg3r. Something else my fckn parents dumped. But I digress.

      However, yes, it is substuntially easier to design a 100-storey building with a digitial tool (sorry Mig) than with a pencil. But nowhere near as joyful.

    • When I first graduated Civil Eng, there was still a mixture of autocad and free hand drawers in the office. The free hand stuff was an absolute work of art, the lettering, dimensioning etc etc. Problem was it would take weeks for a section (e.g. road) to be drawn up, whereas at that time technology had advanced enough for digital survey data to be input directly into CAD and the finished piece was done in a day or two. Don’t work in that field any more but any design drawing I need for myself these days is done via the old fashioned art form. It’s brilliant.

  32. The Traveling Wilbur

    Coroner’s findings on Epstein’s death are in.

    Ruled to be natural causes – Epstein Bar syndrome.
    Full exam report details are more enlightening; apparently it was quite natural for a lot of different groups of people to desire Epstein to be found hanging from one. For one reason or another. Can’t say I can disagree with those findings.

  33. interested partyMEMBER

    Just got finished with reading through the usual comments above about the usual stuff, and find it interesting that all of a sudden the conspiracies regarding Epstein that have been shared for…oh….how about at least a year or so….have been proven correct. It will be fascinating watching a few here turn from deniers and corruption enablers ( sticking ones head in the sand equates to providing cover for the criminals imho = some level of complicity, morally at least ) turn and jump the net to being experts in this information and will share and spray their well considered opinions far and wide….whilst nodding sagely that the world does indeed have a cabal that rapes, traffics, murders, sacrifices, and abuses our kids…….and something should be done about it.

    Well……..guess what. Trump is all over this, as is Qanon…..but that is just one conspiracy too far for the brainwashed fools that parrot the MSM.

    Rant over.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Anyone associated with this outfit would have a story to tell…both sides of the equation.
        Bill knows all about rachel chandler…….this is her agency for ……ahem…”””””.models……””””…….. Dead Jeff was the money man behind this agency. Money connections to victorias secret founder………
        How many names of these said models appear on flight logs to an island called little st james?

        http://midland.agency/

      • interested partyMEMBER

        MB……I think he is suggesting dead jeff humped her….or set it up for others to do same.
        She didn’t get to where she is on talent now….did she? She paid a price that hollywood/music execs expect as the cost of doing business?

        Maybe ask Dave Geffen?

  34. With this whole Epstein thing. I wonder if there are any “in the event of my untimely demise” packages landing at the NYT (or Wikileaks for that matter)?

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      “and to fund the production of Hollywood films including The Wolf of Wall Street.”
      Now that’s funny …..
      Good luck to that old recalcitrant…..will be a struggle to win ..all that Wall Street money versus Malaysia ?…..where the fcuk is that ?
      …..

  35. weekly prices moved down again but MSM is spruiking the high clearance rates as evidence of prices moving up. Next three weeks will tell us where prices are heading but Fri, Sat and today’s daily indices are pointing down.. so far. Just can’t wait to see volumes of listed properties going up 20-30%. Don’t care if Auctions volumes go up or not as long as stocks go up 20-30%.

    • Here in Canberra, there were 40 scheduled auctions, 17 sales for a clearance rate of 75%. The numbers don’t lie! What a rebound!

  36. Private schools booming in the USA. Teachers at many public schools are forbidden from expelling Black students (White students OK). White families flee as a result.

    I’ve seen the same thing in Australia, Aboriginal kids cannot be expelled.

    • FYI Australia was sold off in the 80s, only thing is those anglophone owners are now selling to the Chinese for a profit E.g. the Chinese are just buyers in a market.

      Like Howard said … he wanted the people to sleep through changes….

      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        Skip …tend to agree …for me the last great Australian PM was Curtin …..Menzies has some good things
        on “homes material and homes spiritual.” Whitlam
        had some good social conscience……Keating was the last great hope of a remnant Labour Party but got lost in Asia ……..yes after that it went to sh1t ….Howard ….Rudd …Gillard ..Rudd .Abbott ,Malcolm…Scomo……a great greyness descends upon the land ………this fog might be breaking …..Mr Hastie is putting up a view
        that is uncomfortable for the comfortable….good luck to him

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        It was a fantastic time.
        How good was Woodstock, 400,000 stoned and tripping young people lived partyed and loved for 3 days in Peace.
        No “Securtiy”, dogs or strip searches
        There were equally peaceful and stoned festivals in Oz, just not as big.
        Could that happen today ?
        Some of us still try to keep the Dream alive.