Vale on track for more ore

Via Vale’s fresh financials:

• We made substantial progress in 2Q19 concerning the 93 Mtpy of Iron Ore production stopped in 1Q19 with the resumption of Brucutu operations on June 22nd , 2019, recovering 30 Mtpy of production capacity, and the partial return of dry processing at the Vargem Grande complex, adding about 12Mtpy (5 Mt in 2019). Regarding the approximate 50 Mtpy currently curbed, we expect that about 20 Mtpy of dry processing production will be gradually resumed starting by the end of this year and the remaining 30 Mtpy, which includes wet processing, is estimated to return in about two to three years.

• In 2Q19, we were able, at the best of our knowledge, to assess and recognize a provision for all categories of the Brumadinho dam rupture impacts. We recorded a total provision of US$ 1.374 billion related to: (i) the environmental measures and related agreements (US$ 1.190 billion); (ii) the decommissioning or de-characterization of other structures not considered in 1Q19 (US$ 98 million); and (iii) revision of the provision related to the Framework Agreements, including the compensation for collective moral damages, which is part of the terms and conditions set in the agreement recently signed with the Public Ministry of Labor (Ministério Público do Trabalho – MPT) (US$ 86 million). Additionally, we recorded US$ 158 million of ongoing reparation expenses related to the Brumadinho event.

In addition there is the S11D ramp up which should see total volumes up further this year and another 15mt next year.

Any shortage that there was is ending and a glut now looms for 2020.

Houses and Holes

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the fouding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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