Links 23 August 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


  1. A flurry of articles on coal:

    1 hour ago

    While Matt Canavan says it’s not necessary to disclose his brother’s coal interests, it wouldn’t help even if he did. John doesn’t actually own Winfield— since last November the 59 per cent Canavan stake is held by John’s wife, Tanya. Completely arm’s length then.

    2 hours ago

    Australia targets India for coal exports amid China fallout

    The comments will be welcomed by some north-Queenslanders struggling with stubbornly high unemployment

    What guarantee is there that the 4000 jobs will be given to Aussies? And if you can ban foreigners from those jobs, why not ban foreigners from all sub $250k/year jobs in Queensland?

    15 hours ago

    Asia digs up and burns three-quarters of the world’s coal

    In both China and India, the biggest banks are state-owned, and their lending decisions are as much a function of government policy as of expected returns. The Chinese government, in turn, although pursuing cleaner energy at home, does not seem particularly keen to encourage it abroad. The Belt and Road Initiative, a big Chinese infrastructure-development scheme, will see billions spent to build coal-fired plants in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam

    Chinese financial institutions are helping to fund more than a quarter of coal-fired power stations under development around the world.

    economist. com/asia/2019/08/22/asia-digs-up-and-burns-three-quarters-of-the-worlds-coal

  2. You have to have a chuckle when you see headlines about housing prices ‘surging’.
    Of course they are going to surge if the central bank persists on using artificially low interest rates for extremely long periods of time.
    We’ve had the Glenn Stevens Financial Crisis.
    Now we are going to have the Phillip Lowe Financial Crisis.
    The fact that these people keep encouraging the population to enter the Reserve Bank of Australia’s imaginative magical mystery tour into excessive credit creation makes you realise that both Stevens and Lowe have very little knowledge of the very repetitive history of easy credit cycles created by central banks.

    • both crises can be shoehorned into the “RBA IRRELEVANCY” epoch leaving ample room for the coming years of RBA stupidity.

      keep doing what ya always done ya gunna git what ya always got

  3. Queensland Labor to change its official platform in coal-friendly revamp

    yeah now when even big international consultancies gave up on coal, Labor is turning back for few fistfuls of votes

    Why Labor doesn’t reconnect with middle class? Or younger people – the largest voting block in Australia

      • solar is already cheaper than coal when all costs included

        cost of solar is less than $2k per 1kW

        cost of new coal power plant in Australia would be at least $10k per kW and it would take at least 5 years to complete (from breaking ground) and would likely to take another year to make it reliable after completion

    • Why Labor doesn’t reconnect with middle class? Or younger people – the largest voting block in Australia

      Because the hard right views them as indistinguishable from the CCCP and everyone else views them as indistinguishable from the Liberals.

    • that’s going to be almost $200k per unit – these units will never be worth anything close to that money. They should sell and let Meriton to demolish and build something with 30 storeys and even worse quality

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Indeed. Carry that on further and what we will have is buildings that require demolishing while they’re being built.

        Imagine the boost that gives to the economy.

    • We come to this country thinking of how much of a future we’ll have compared to back home, but we end up like this,” said a Mascot Towers resident who requested anonymity. “It’s not fair. Because of someone else’s fault we will have to bear all the consequences.”

      Really? Well Manpreet or Rajesh or whatever your name is, let me tell you this:

      1. You are about 20 years too late in migrating if that is the kind of Australia you were expecting
      2. There are plenty of locals feeling the same pain about the utter destruction of the country they grew up in, but they are all wretched wh!te males, so they don’t get a say – at least someone gave you some airtime

      • the bit that infuriates me is the fact that everyone expects real estate purchase to be risk free (risk covered by government) and at the same time everyone expects profits (capital gains) to be their own taxed as little as possible
        if people want government to bear all the risk than surely CGT tax above bank deposit equivalent gains needs to be taxed at least 90%

      • +1, the sooner Jimmy Grants get the memo the place has been destroyed and is no better than the sh!t hole countries they came from the better. Maybe they will stay put and improve their own countries and stop putting pressure on Western countries to take them all in.

      • @Gavin: I have been wondering if/when that will happen. I have heard the urban legends of Indian taxi drivers dumping cabs at Melbourne airport and high-tailing it in years gone by.

        I understand that there is a huge face saving required if you have taken the plunge to migrate and very likely no honesty to friends and family back in India about how much of a mess you may be in having bought a dud unit or a block in Tarneit that you cannot sell etc. etc.

        Some are probably in denial about it and holding on until a Government bailout comes (and you could not blame them, given the handout mentality of this place). I think reduction in migrant interest to come here (other than for asylum) will be a severely lagging indicator. But I would be happy to be proved wrong.

  4. NSW, Victoria warned of summer blackout risk if power supply doesn’t improve

    By 2023 more than 5GW of renewables will be installed in NSW alone more than offsetting closure of 1.68GW Liddell power Station.

    It’s the frequent interruptions in coal power plants operations that threatens security of supply – and I wouldn’t be surprised if these are not accidental interruptions but planned because same companies that own these make big bucks when prices skyrocket due to shortage from $100 to $10k per MW – at the peak of Enron debacle prices were hitting $2k we are paying $10k to big monopoly generators

  5. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Outrage in Ireland with rules for some…

    …but this bit…

    “….under legislation passed in the wake of the financial crisis that approves the write-down of mortgage debt for individuals while permitting them to remain in their family home.”

    There’s our future. Even in bankruptcy the good-looking remain good-looking. We loosers remain ugly…with all our savings stolen…

    • What a total CVNT. I wonder how much money (not cash of course) Scummo promised to add to the ABC budget for running that piece.

    • The boot licker also failed to note that the cash ban proposed only applies to ABN holders, still plenty of room for private cash sales/trade effectively doing nothing about black cash. Unless she gets her dream of getting rid of cash altogether…..

    • Sunshine = Scumshine. Lot of crime drugs around that area. Especially the train station. Not quite Mount Druitt but in that sort of way similar…

      Berwick = Some wealthier parts of the suburb. Nicer homes etc.. but heading towards Packenham (Smackenham) – which is where all the vibrants have gone. Lots of new housing developments, horrible looking really. But ironically if you head up North of Packenham some really nice areas (but more country feel). Gets better as you head towards Warragul.

      But apparently Berwick (according to Martin North) is 1 of the highest mortgage stress areas. Not surprising given that the cost of housing there is quite high (considering distance from city etc..). I think it will be a mortgage belt in any downturn. Maybe stress at home is spilling over to the kids?

      Frankston is Melbourne’s Cronulla is reckon. I actually have been looking at housing in the area until recently. Can be rough in parts, but for me rough is Johannesburg (which I lived in for 3 months) Frankston just seems to have some rougher looking houses, but it’s near the Coast. Downturn Frankston CBD is full of smackheads though shouting at each other over cigarettes.

      Basically all areas that new immigrants would be attracted to, given more affordable housing and a lot of population pressure would spill over into.

      • I call it Frankanistan, I am pretty sure others do too, but it’s still mostly white trash living there not those of the faith for Mohammed.

        PS: I like white trash. I am white trash haha.

      • it’s funny seeing these places being well over half a million dollar suburbs, soon (during the boom underway) getting into a million dollar club
        this what makes Australia crazy, even the worst of all places are unaffordable median income earners

      • I only know two jokes about Melbourne.

        What is the most confusing day of the year in Frankston?
        Father’s day.

        I cracked it to someone from Frankston and they didn’t like it.
        However, they couldn’t stop laughing at the follow up.

        How do you pick the bride at a Broadmeadows wedding?
        She’s the one in the white track suit.

        My favourite Australian joke is still

        Why do Queenslanders drink XXXX?
        Because they can’t spell beer.

        And I’m a Queenslander.

      • Google provides some amusing Collingwood japes

        You know you’re a Collingwood supporter when:
        1. A Halloween pumpkin has more teeth than your wife does.
        2. You let your twelve-year-old daughter smoke at the dinner table in front of her kids.
        3. You’ve been married three times and still have the same in-laws.
        4. Jack Daniel’s makes your list of ‘most admired people.’
        5. You wonder how service stations keep their restrooms so clean.
        6. Someone in your family once died right after saying: ‘Hey, watch this.’
        7. You think Dom Perignon is a Mafia leader.
        8. A ceiling fan once ruined your wife’s hairdo.
        9. You think the last words of Advance Australia Fair are: ‘Carn the Maggies.’
        10. You lit a match in the bathroom and your house exploded, right off its wheels.
        11. The market value of your car goes up and down, depending on how much petrol is in it.
        12. You have to go outside to get something from the fridge.
        13. One of your kids was born on a pool table.
        14. You can’t get married to your sweetheart because there’s a law against it.
        15. You think ‘loaded dishwasher’ means your wife is drunk.
        16. Your toilet paper has page numbers on it.
        17. Your front verandah collapses and kills more than five dogs.

    • Exactly. There would be more than that in just the new migrants coming in on the train from Sydney airport on any given morning.

  6. A young bloke l know has done teaching rounds at Frankston, and as a contrast Elwood. Both catholic primary schools.
    – in Frankston, he spent the whole day, both in the playground and classroom, sorting out physical fights between the kids.
    – he found Elwood pretty boring after that, as the kids were polite, attentive and not a fight for the time he was there(same length of time).
    Something is wrong down Frankston way.

    • It’s a shame Elwood is so unaffordable.. I grew up in Elsternwick and would love to live there.

      • Great place Elwood, and Elsternwick and Caulfield.
        A lot of people here surprisingly tight for disposable income- l wouldn’t totally lose hope.

  7. NEW ZEALAND’S HORROR HOUSING WEEK: From Nationals Housing Crisis To Labours Housing Disaster …

    … or … how the Labour – led Government finally blew it … setting the stage to lose the late 2020 general election …

    The two worrying proposed National Policu Statements … Eric Crampton & Toby Fitsimmons … New Zealand Initiative

    Housing despair … Dr Eric Crampton

    We Prefer Potato! … Toby Fitzsimmons

    … Mid 2016 …

    Labour, National both tell council Auckland city growth limits should be abolished … Sam Sachdeva … Stuff NZ

    … Mid 2018 …

    Govt criticised for moving slowly on Auckland growth boundary … Michael Daly … Stuff NZ