Brazil iron ore exports boom!

The market still hasn’t realised it but it’s over, via Reuters:

Brazil’s iron ore exports rose 16.6% in July from the previous month to 34.3 million tonnes, the highest level in nine months, as Vale resumed production at its largest mine in the state of Minas Gerais, official data showed on Thursday.

July’s exports were the highest since October 2018, when Brazilian foreign sales of iron ore reached 37.2 million tonnes, according to data compiled by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex).

The chart:

This is faster than even I expected. It will keep coming. Brucutu was the key. It freed more than its own volumes because it is key low impurity input into other blended products.

Iron ore should be trading at $80 today on its way to $50 next year as global growth sinks.

Houses and Holes

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the fouding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.

He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.

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