Dwelling approvals crash accelerates

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of June. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.2% to 14,295. The overall fall in approvals was driven by the volatile unit & apartment segment (-6.5), which more than offset the 0.4% rise in detached house approvals.

In the year to June 2019, dwelling approvals crashed by a seasonally-adjusted 25.6%, with house approvals down 14.8% and unit approvals down by 39.3%:

A chart showing the time series of seasonally-adjusted dwelling approvals at the national level is provided below, split-out by detached houses and units & apartments:

Dwelling approvals have crashed in trend terms, driven by units & apartments:

Since initially peaking in March 2015, dwelling approvals nationally are down by 28.5% in trend terms.

Approvals have fallen fast in rolling annual terms:

There were 187,514 approvals in the year to June 2019 – well below the peak of 242,302  approvals in the year to August 2016 – with most of this growth in approvals coming from units and apartments, which are still running well above the 30-year average.

The below chart shows the time-series of approvals at the state level on a trend basis:

As you can see, approvals have crashed across all major markets.

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