Texture from Reuters:
Average weekly shipment from Brazil decreased 8% versus June to 5.9 million tonnes, while cargoes from Australia decreased 13% to 15 million tonnes, she said, citing some industry tracking data.
“The data shows shipments are not recovering and not very stable,” Lau said. “We need to closely monitor these shipments on a weekly basis.”
Data provider Kpler expects China’s iron ore imports in July to be flat compared with June, but down 4.8% versus July 2018, saying Brazil’s Vale SA ramped up shipments but major Australian miners reduced their exports.
Only if you’re using shitty weekly data which has a dubious correlation with official monthly numbers. I suspect what’s going on here is mills are replenishing run down inventories as supply returns. Just as we are seeing at ports.
As I have said, it will take time for the market to adjust as apparent demand outstrips underlying for a little while.
To the charts:
Spot up. Paper lifted more overnight but the contract rolled over so the price fell. That shows you how steeply backwardated the market it. Steel is softening.
No change for me. Beyond your nose this market is toast. The September-October seasonally weak period looks a good candidate for a price adjustment.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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