Weekend Reading: 1-2 June 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:

Americas:

Europe:

Asia:

Trans-Tasman:

Unconventional Economist

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)

Comments

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Anyone for some history and broken international law.
        15
        THE VOCHS Bi-MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
        Robert J. King
        An advertisement in the London Morning Post of Saturday, 4 April 1789 announced that Captain Tench’s
        Narrative was published “This Day”. 1. Watkin Tench, a captain of Marines in the First Fleet, had made a
        contract with the publisher, Debrett, before the Fleet’s departure from England in 1787 to write an account of
        the expedition to Botany Bay. His narrative of the expedition and the situation of the settlers in the new colony
        was sent back on one of the returning ships and its prompt publication met a strong demand for information
        concerning the new colony.
        And not only in the mother country: translations soon appeared in France, Germany and Holland. The Dutch
        translation was published in Amsterdam in August 1789 by Martinus De Bruijn.2. Unlike the French and
        German translations, De Bruijn’s edition contained an extensive commentary on the colony from a Dutch
        perspective: New South Wales was after all the eastern part of what had long been known to Europeans as New
        Holland.
        During late 1786 a lively discussion had taken place in the English press over
        possible Dutch claims to New Holland forming an obstacle to British
        colonization. A newspaper article stated:
        New Holland, (in which Botany Bay is situated nearly the Antipodes to
        Great Britain), was first discovered by Ferdinando de Quier. The East-India
        Companies in Holland pretend to have a property in it, although they were
        ill-used by the inhabitants when they attempted to settle there.
        That country is so highly esteemed by the Dutch, that they have had the
        map thereof cut in the stones of their Stadthouse, at Amsterdam.3
        The article appears to have been designed to forestall Dutch claims to priority
        by attributing the discovery of New Holland to Quirós. The Dutch ambassador,
        the Baron de Lynden, met with Lord Sydney in late September and soon afterward the press reported that he had lodged an objection on behalf of his
        government to the English colonization of New Holland:
        An opposition to the intended settlement of Botany-Bay has lately
        started from a quarter from which it was little expected. The Dutch have
        A Dutch View of the English Colonization of New Holland:
        Martinus de Bruijn on Watkin Tench’s
        Narrative of the
        Expedition to Botany Bay.
        “Courtesy of Map Matters”
        16
        Narrative of the
        Expedition to Botany Bay
        THE VOCHS Bi-MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
        always claimed sovereignty of it by the Right of discovery, a right which has been greatly respected by the
        different Powers of Europe; and we are credibly informed that his Excellency the Baron de Leyder [Lynden],
        the Dutch Ambassador to our Court, has received orders to remonstrate with our Ministers, in the name of the
        States-General, against our regular planting of a territory which they assert belongs to another country.4
        Whether or not the report was an accurate reflection of the views of the Dutch Government, which was
        currently distracted by the imminent prospect of civil war between pro-French and pro-British factions, it
        betrayed English insecurity on the question of Dutch prior rights to the territory. The Whitehall Evening Post
        of 2-4 November 1786 carried an article critical of the Botany Bay scheme, which challenged its supporters:
        “Will they say, that Ministers are authorized to risqué a quarrel with the Dutch and their new allies [the French]
        about our felons taking possession of that distant region? We should not be surprized to hear that the Dutch
        had been before-hand with us by sending a small squadron to oppose the debarkation of our hopeful planters
        on that new found Garden of Eden…” An article in The General Advertiser of 6 November 1786 stated:
        Two very spirited memorials have been presented by the French and Dutch Ambassadors, against our intended
        Settlement at Botany Bay, in which they threaten to resist our sending the Convicts there; in consequence of
        which, a Cabinet Council met a few days ago, and sat all night on the subject, when it was determined (but it is
        said not unanimously) to persist in the measure; and an additional frigate is ordered to the Settlement in case
        the threats should be carried into execution.
        The Whitehall Evening Post of 7 November, 1786 reported “representations, which we understand the French
        and Dutch have lately made to our Court, against the projected settlement at Botany Bay”. An article in The
        Morning Post of 9 November asserted: “As to the Dutch claiming a right to Botany Bay, because they first
        discovered the vast tract of land called New Holland, those who first discovered New-York, might with as
        much justice lay claim to the Floridas, because they make a part of the vast continent of America”. The General
        Evening Post of 11 November, 1786 stated: “Our Botany-bay scheme, it seems, for the present is at a standstill;
        the Dutch have sent a strong memorial against our planting a settlement in those regions of the South.”
        “Another Faulkland island business is on the tapis”, cried an article carried in The Public Advertiser of 10
        November, 1786: “the Botany Bay scheme is laid aside, as there is a strong presumption that a squadron from
        Brest are now, or soon will be, in possession of the very spot we meant to occupy in New Holland”. This may
        have been a reference to the expedition led by François Galoup de Lapérouse, which the British Ambassador to
        France had believed when it set out from Brest in August 1785 had as one of its objectives the establishment of
        a settlement in New Zealand to forestall the British.5 “If what we hear be true,” the article in The Public
        Advertiser went on, ” the Botany Bay plan, about which we have been so cock-a-hoop of late, is likely to meet
        with some delay, if not a total disappointment. The Dutch, it is said, have not only remonstrated against the
        measure, on the ground of a prior discovery, but have likewise engaged the Court of Versailles in their
        interest, by means of a memorial warmly complaining of the intended usurpation of their just rights, and
        soliciting the federal stipulations with that power to prevent them from violation, if circumstances should
        render such interference necessary.
        The Morning Post of 13 November 1786 declared: “Our right, as a nation, to the territorial possession of the
        surrounding country of Botany Bay, is disputed by those who are determined to dispute every inch of ground
        with the Ministry. The best authorities have established it as a maxim, that in all parts uninhabited, formal
        possession confers property”.
        The Morning Herald went so far as to declare, on Friday 17 November 1786: “On Tuesday last, the illconcerted plan of Government, to found a Colony at Botany Bay, expired in the Cabinet; with all the shame
        upon its projectors, that could appertain to so unconstitutional and impolitic a proceeding”. This was
        refuted by The Public Advertiser on Monday 20 November 1786, in an article which asserted:
        The intelligence so pompously announced in a print of last Friday, relative to Botany Bay, is extremely
        groundless—it is malicious and imprudent in a high degree… The steps previous to the settlement at Botany
        Bay have been taken with much regularity. They have never experienced any interruption:
        17
        Narrative of the
        Expedition to Botany Bay
        THE VOCHS Bi-MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
        nor are likely to do so, as no power on earth can, in justice, dispute Britain’s
        right to the soil on which the Colony is to be settled…
        A further article in The Public Advertiser of 1 December affirmed: “The truth is, the Minister has no dispute
        with the French or Dutch concerning the Botany-Bay plan”. All the talk about Dutch objections did betray
        English awareness of the potential strength of a Dutch position in international law. Emanuel Bowen’s wellknown Complete Map of the Southern Continent, allegedly copied from the world map laid into the floor of the
        Amsterdam Stadhuys, was often referred to during the preparations for settling New South Wales and was,
        essentially, a chart of Dutch discoveries, as the map legend openly declared: “This Map is very exactly Copied
        from the Original and therefore the Dutch Names have been preserved that if hereafter any Discoveries should
        be Attempted all the places mentioned may be readily found in the Dutch Charts which must be procured for
        such a Voyage”.
        When taking possession of the east coast of New Holland on 21/22 August
        1770, James Cook had noted in his journal that he could, “land no more upon this Eastern coast of New
        Holland, and on the Western side I can make no new discovery the honour of which belongs to the Dutch
        Navigators and as such they may lay Claim to it as their property”. This comment by Cook (underlined) was
        later crossed out and not published.6.. Cook was careful to take possession only of that part of the coastline not
        previously visited by Dutch navigators, i.e. from latitude 38º South at Point Hicks, north of Van Diemens Land,
        to Cape York, East of Carpentaria.7. The desire to avoid an unnecessary confrontation with the Dutch seems to
        have influenced the definition of the British territorial claim to New South Wales.
        Holland was much better as an ally than an enemy, and British interest in New Holland related to the Pacific
        rather than the Indian Ocean. Its significance for Britain was summarized in an article in The General Evening
        Post of 14-16 November, 1786, which quoted without attribution from An Historical Narrative of the
        Discovery of New Holland and New South Wales (also published in November 1786):
        The importance of Botany-bay will appear by all who examine Capt. Cook’s chart of his discoveries, where
        they will find there is an open sea from the bay to a cluster of islands called New-Zealand, lying somewhat
        to the southward of the east, at the distance of about four hundred leagues. At about the same distance from the
        north-east, lye the New Hebrides, at a very moderate distance from them; under the same degree of latitude are
        the Friendly Islands, the Society Islands, and the Marquesas Isles. From these latter the run to the Sandwich
        Islands does not exceed eight [hundred] leagues; so that this whole tour scarcely equals a voyage from GreatBritain to the Carribee Islands, and back. Its situation is well adapted for carrying on a trade between Nootka
        Sound and Cook’s River, on the American coast, and the Islands of Japan and the Chinese Empire, in sea-otter
        skins; as also to perfect the discoveries made in that part of the globe, a matter which the late Captain King had
        much at heart. Below: John Lodge, A Chart of NEW HOLLAND nla.obj-230619603
        The Historical Narrative illustrated this description
        with “A General Chart of New Holland, including New
        South Wales & Botany Bay, with The Adjacent
        Countries, and New Discovered Islands”. A similar
        chart was published in the February 1787 issue of The
        Political Magazine, with the difference being that this
        chart extended to latitude 50° North, and so included
        Japan, the Kurile Islands and the North West coast of
        America. All the island groups indicated (somewhat
        inaccurately) in the Historical Narrative’s chart were
        included in the territorial claim embodied in the
        proclamation of the colony by its founding Governor,
        Arthur Phillip, on 7 February, 1788 at Port Jackson.
        Both charts demonstrated the imperial interests the
        18
        THE VOCHS Bi-MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
        British Government had in founding the colony.
        The definition of the territorial jurisdiction of the governor of New South Wales expressed these interests. A
        territorial definition of New South Wales had been given by James Matra in the 27 August, 1784 version of his
        Proposal, where he said:
        “New South Wales extends from the 44th degree of South Latitude, to the 10th, and from 110, to near
        154 degrees of Longitude”. In fact, James Cook’s claim had left the western limit of New South Wales
        indefinite, as he had simply claimed all the rivers debouching on its east coast, and it was not known where the
        most western source of those rivers lay. An eastern boundary at 154° East would have excluded the islands of
        the South Pacific from the Governor’s jurisdiction, in particular, Norfolk Island, with its attractions of
        “flax” (harakeke) and pine timber.
        The shift eastwards in British interest was expressed in Phillip’s first commission of 18 October 1786, and in
        the Order-in-Council of 6 December, 1786 which authorised the transportation of convicts to “the Eastern Coast
        of New South Wales, or some one or other of the Islands adjacent”. Bowen’s engraving of the Amsterdam
        Stadhuys map, with its division of the continent into New Holland to the west and Terra Australis to the east of
        “the antient line of demarcation” at 135° East, provided a convenient western boundary for the British claim.
        The map of Dutch discoveries in New Holland “laid down in the pavement of the Stadthouse at Amsterdam”
        was referred to in the Historical Narrative.8 The territorial definition given in Phillip’s commission, and
        proclaimed by him at Port Jackson on 7 February, 1788, shifted New South Wales to the eastward of Matra’s
        definition, and left any Dutch claim to western New Holland undisturbed. The claim was published in the
        London press on 30 April, 1789. An article in The Diary for that date, and in the April 1789 issue of The
        Political Magazine (quoting from Watkin Tench’s newly published Narrative of the Expedition to Botany Bay),
        stated:
        The extent of our possessions in New Holland, have not been explained to the publick. In Governor Phillip’s
        commission, the extent of this authority is defined to reach from the latitude of 43 deg. 49 min. south,
        to the latitude of 10 degrees 37 min. south, being the northern and southern extremities of the continent of New
        Holland. It commences again at [the] 135th degree of longitude east of Greenwich, and proceeding in an
        easterly direction, includes all the islands within the limits of the above specified latitudes in the Pacifick
        Ocean. By this partition, it may be fairly presumed, that every source of future litigation between the Dutch and
        us, will be for ever cut off, as the discoveries of English navigators only are comprized in this territory.
        Tench was mistaken in the latitude he gave for the southern extremity of New Holland. Phillip’s commission
        referred to “the Southern Extremity of the said Territory of New South Wales or South Cape, in the Latitude of
        Forty three Degrees Thirty nine Minutes South”, which is the latitude of what is now called South East
        Narrative of the
        Expedition to Botany Bay
        19
        Narrative of the
        Expedition to Botany Bay
        THE VOCHS Bi-MONTHLY NEWSLETTER
        Cape, the southernmost point of the island of Van Diemen’s Land (Tasmania).
        In his commentary on Tench’s Narrative, Martinus De Bruijn considered two matters worthy of comment: the
        question of why Britain should have chosen to colonize a land that the Dutch East India Company had
        concluded after many years of investigation to be worthless; and the extent of the area claimed for the colony.
        “Truly an astonishing extent!” the translator remarked.9 De Bruijn also expressed puzzlement at the British
        decision to colonize a land whose advantages in that respect had so thoroughly escaped the notice of the
        Dutch East India Company despite having very detailed reports concerning that country and its
        inhabitants.
        De Bruijn Tench Ommelander 1.
        Whatever proprietorial feelings a Dutch citizen may have felt toward New Holland, the situation of the Dutch
        Republic in the 1780s was such as to preclude any action to prevent British colonization of the country. From
        the end of 1780 to 1783, the United Provinces of the Netherlands were allied to France during the American
        War of Independence. The consequences for the Dutch Republic of entanglement in that war had been disastrous. Within weeks of the outbreak of hostilities, hundreds of Dutch merchant ships were seized by the
        British navy, causing grievous, long-term damage to the Dutch economy. The United East India Company
        (VOC) lost nineteen of its ships to the British, a crippling blow to the Company from which it never
        recovered.10
        The blow to the prestige of the Stadholder, William V, was equally severe, and a movement for reform of the
        national institutions arose, led by those who called themselves the “Patriots”. William V, whose mother, the
        Princess Anne, was the daughter of Britain’s George II, was seen to be too close to Britain, and the Patriots
        turned to France for inspiration and support. They raised civic militias under the name of Vrij Corps (Free
        Corps), which called forth rival militias raised to support William’s House of Orange.
        By mid-1786, the Stadholder had been driven from The Hague to take refuge in Nijmegen and the Patriots
        were in control of Utrecht, the “father city” of the Republic. Tensions between Patriots and Orangists had
        become so high that, the British ambassador, Sir James Harris, could report to his government that the
        country was on the brink of open civil war, in which France and Britain would be involved as supporters of
        the opposing parties.11 All any Dutch citizen could do
        under those circumstances was to observe from afar the progress of British
        colonization of New Holland. Martinus de Bruijn’s comments on Watkin Tench’s
        narrative reveal the reactions of one such observer.
        Robert J. Kingfor some history and broken international law.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Sorry it was supposed to come as a discretionary attachment to the economical important brief affecting Australia.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        The economic implications are
        1/ that if that precedent is deemed binding then any country has the authority to take sovereignty over Australia at any time with impunity.
        or 2/ If international law is upheld then Australian citizens could be expelled unless taking Dutch citizenship.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Grey Rider, thanks will look that up & translation when get home after drowning my ride sorrows with 2 once a week coffees at Girders. Shame on me.

      • St JacquesMEMBER

        Love the blast from the past boomengineering. Politics and power, same as it’s always been.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Wouldn’t sit too well for baked on Aussies to take on Dutch citizenship but immigrants wouldn’t care whether pledging allegiance to the British queen or the Dutch queen. No difference to them.

      • boomer – wouldn’t be all bad, for one thing on average we’d all be much taller.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Bit disappointing didn’t rustle up some interest in Australian Republic Movement.

      • Ermmm…. point of order Mr Speaker: nasty stigmata around haemorrhoids implies blood coming out of one’s errr… fundament, does it not?

  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China’s Economic Troubles Come Into Sharper Focus … Wall Street Journal (behind paywall)

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-troubles-come-into-sharper-focus-11559286242

    May numbers may be the first reliable guide in a while to how bad things really are—it’s not a pretty picture … read more via hyperlink above (behind paywall) …
    .
    .
    China’s 8.34 million graduates fighting for fewer jobs as vacancies dwindle and gap years increase, survey shows … South China Morning Post

    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3012635/chinas-834-million-graduates-fighting-fewer-jobs-vacancies
    .
    .
    The Migrant Workers Behind China’s Economic Miracle Are Miserable … The Atlantic

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/05/china-migrant-workers-miserable/589423/

  2. Duplicity around aspiration.

    The right wing pricks have been saying “aspirational” for years. Now even Rudd is saying “aspirational”:

    https://youtu.be/tlgt2rxJ3Gg?t=42

    But Frydenberg said $75 cheques shall be given to poor Aussies.

    So, the poor can not eat aspiration for dinner? And it is ok to give a $75 cheque to every non-rich voter?

    The fake Greens need to call out this duplicity.

    • Aspirational is right wing code for conned, scammed, played, sucked in mofo we’re going cut your penalty rates again but thanks for your vote.

      • Yep. This is what I think right wing pricks mean when they say “aspirational”:

        “you are poor now, but you are guaranteed to be rich in 50 years time, so why not exempt all baby boomers from taxation now – including the hypocrites in yachts – so that you also get to avoid the luxury yacht tax when you are 70 years old”.

      • @Jacob that’s right. Many people voting liberal are still under the misguided belief that they too will be wealthy enough to enjoy such perks in future and that the system ain’t stacked against them. They vote under the misguided belief that someday it will be them. When in reality there never gonna be in that position.

        But sure tell them if they pull themselves up by their bootstraps they will get there. Everyone needs a guru I suppose.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        Blue collars voting Liberal were called “2 Bob Millionaires” when I were a lad.
        The “Bob” referred to was 2 shillings, for you younger folk.

    • “aspirational” used this way is code for saying “I intend to rort the system ruthlessly because I feel I am entitled to live an above-average life, despite having created nothing and provided no socially valuable contribution”

  3. boomengineeringMEMBER

    And a chart in collaboration of the above economic story.
    John Lodge ,
    Chart of New Holland,
    NLA.obj–230619603

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      It was a toss up between a Cort and a Washburn for my latest foray into the world of mediocre music making. The inner industrial terrorist in me must have known of Cort’s problems as I chose Washburn.

      In other news, I was showing the boy how to play some accadacca. He asked why the angry face. I say that’s not angry, that’s rock and roll. He say creepy. Yeah, now you’re getting it…

    • Not me, I am keen on a Tokai Loverock Les Paul 1980s build if I can get 1 in future.

      • Good choice Gav, Tokai are the way to go. They’re fabulous guitars…as good as a Gibson in manufacturing quality, tone and playability at a fraction of the price.

        I’ve got a rehearsal this arvo, and I’m taking along my Tokai Love Rock gold Top with soapbar P90s going into my Marshall SV20C. I have 3 Tokais and I play them more than my Gibsons.

        The new Marshall is a killer too…its a 20 watt plexi…goes well with rhe Tokais.

      • LSWCHP – you convinced me while ago.. I am looking at ES73 now. Might buy one Made in China though. Just don’t feel like spending too much money while I am asking to be redundant at work.

    • Something tells me conditions in the Indonesian factory would be just as bad. Globalisation was sold to us as a way to lift people from poverty but in effect was and still is modern day slavery.

    • T’will be over quickly.

      So somewhat understandable that they are jockeying for position to capitalize on the brief surge before the final descent.

      Prompts the question: Are the banks worth saving? Should we destroy the rest of our society on the altar of those 4? Or is there another option as we recover and watch them burn?

      Any replacement might be a little more cognizant of their social contract.

      • let the cvnts burn. I’ve moved our ‘house’ fund (waiting to pounce) to rabodirerct. Had it in RAMS but not 100% comfortable with it there. Not sure where to put it after the initial 3 months are up. ING isn’t an option as the missus and I each have a half full (for max interest) ING savings account

      • Hm move it to the Rabo direct premium saver account. Not quite as good interest as the default Rabo one but still 2.45%. Only condition is balance needs to go up by $200 per month to get the interest.

  4. Heywould JaBlowme

    https://www.nsw.gov.au/news-and-events/news/water-restrictions-to-start-across-sydney/

    “The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest forecast is predicting below-average rainfall and higher temperatures for June to August, which are key drivers of stronger water demand,” Mrs Pavey said.

    “Regional NSW has been experiencing a record drought. Water restrictions in Sydney mean that households across NSW are doing their bit to conserve water.”

    While you fvcking cvnts import 1800 a week into Sydney via Mascot. Just go and get fvcked.

    • The good news is that this will be solved when Morrison lets the IPA take over the BOM. Then it will forecast rain all the time forever.

      • Absolutely true, this.
        The perfect choice for the next BOM head will be Malcolm Roberts (who will happily juggle the responsibilities of the Senate and BOM on a Monday. The rest of the week would be free for appointments…)

    • Yeah, basically any Americans in China need to be leaving now. We are nor far off CCP instigated anti american riots just like the 2012 anti Japanese riots over east china sea.
      .

      • I’m so so so so sooooooo glad I got out a couple of years ago. My timing was perfect on that one. Sometimes I can’t actually believe I managed to choose my exit time, so many people I know didn’t. If only I timed some of my investment decisions as well as that one! No complaints though, if there was a decision to get right, it was exiting China.

    • Further info

      The vague wording of the Chinese state media report opens the door for Beijing to target a broad swathe of the global tech industry — from U.S. giants like Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Qualcomm Inc. and Intel Corp. to even non-American suppliers that have cut off China’s largest technology company. Those run the gamut from Japan’s Toshiba to Britain’s Arm.
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-31/china-to-set-up-unreliable-entity-list-after-u-s-huawei-ban

      Thing is, such action would further accelerate tech decoupling. Beijing slitting its own throat?

    • I made really good profit on ALK last Thursday (sold at 0.335c and bought at 0.234 average) because of their large Rare Earth minerals deposit. Some people have been telling that I sold too early but my philosophy is – if I am happy with the profit I collect. I understand that ALK may go to $1.50 or even above if China starts to restrict supplies of rare earth minerals but on the side side if news comes around that US and China agreed the terms and are about to sign those shares will sink real fast.
      Now I only need AOP to report high grade extensions in the coming weeks and Gibson ES-390 or Tokai ES-198 here we come – as I know no one can complain… “how many do you need to learn one song??”

    • I frequent East Vic Park quite a bit as do my daughters, and to claim it’s flying high is a laugh. The western end is usually quiet and the eastern end has seen a number of restaurants close up. One in particular is posted as being renovated and that’s been over 6 mths.

      Bloody sure if the FWO checked out the restaurants there, they would all be under paying their staff.

    • Supreme with anchovies

      Its cos all the Mt Lawley hipsters have moved to Melbourne. Man buns and bogans dont mix well

  5. So here’s my question.

    IS NATHAN BIRCH ALREADY WORTH ZERO?

    I don’t mean the person of course – that’s a given. I mean his property portfolio.

    John Hempton stated “so he claims he owns about 180 properties… he’d be ahead, the bank probably owns 150 so he’d have about 30 outright. Nobody needs 30 properties! He should cash it!”

    But – is he ahead? Why hasn’t he cashed it? (his Facebook says he owns 200 properties so he hasn’t cashed it).

    Which means he’s gone to zero. Here’s my logic. His whole business model is to aggressively leverage equity in his properties to buy new ones. Pays interest only. Then he gets the bank to revalue properties upwards after purchase or price gains and uses the new magic equity to buy another. Which means he is actually not building up any equity at all. He keeps drawing it down to leverage up more. If he has any equity built up it would be less than 10% because when it hits that level he would draw on it.

    Now – median Aus property prices are down 10.7% from peak.

    Which could well mean any equity gains are completely wiped out, if he hasn’t cashed a lot out at the peak. Remember you have to take stamp duty off his “profits” too. Nearly everything he owns could be underwater.

    His cashflow (rents) could be struggling too. We’ve seen the news articles saying he forgot to pay a fee mortgage repayments a while back. He suddenly took a plunge on crypto last year (timing! 😂). And he has ramped up spruiking for his buyers agency (needs cash!).

    So. There it is. If he is facing an interest only reset he is in particular strife. And unless the new boom ™ saves him, I reckon it’s just a matter of time.

      • How could he have possibly seen it coming?

        Clearly the bank – or ‘many’ banks – was/were in the wrong, by lending so much. /sarc.

        Perhaps there should be an upper limit on the number of residential properties one person/entity/trust can own? If houses are for shelter then it might be a sensible change, you know, to limit it at double-digits.

      • AM I read that France taxes second homes and above more heavily.

        I’m a nice guy who recognises aspiration etc, so I’d be happy to let people own as many as three (no negative gearing mind) including their PPOR, and then tax them to the eyeballs on anything more than that.

      • Agreed Gav, and if they have enough money to buy more the tax system should “gently” steer them towards investing in something more productive.

    • Cash flow wise he can’t be making money with rental yields where they are, so he isn’t building equity at all.

    • And it’s such a bad investment strategy. If you are going to invest in 200 properties levered at least diversify into commercial property as well.

      • Perhaps he has. Perhaps he has extracted a big wad of winnings and hidden it away from future bankruptcy proceedings. But instinctively I doubt it. He just seems like such an “all-in because I’m a genius” type of guy.

      • But really he is diversified. He has many different residential properties! In many different residential property buildings! In several parts of NSW and even other completely-disconnected residential property markets in other states of Australia! He’s well covered 😂

      • I reckon he’s only being kept afloat by the fact that no-one’s forcing a mark to market revaluation of property right now.

      • Westpac doesn’t want to pull the pin because Westpac wants to hide the garbage on its balance sheet.
        Mr IQ is a symbol of what Westpac was all about.

      • Think we all missed a chance to hangout with Mr IQ on his birthday :O

        “Do you want to join Nathan on his birthday?
        Anyone who signs a management agreement with Blink Property this week, is invited to join Nathan on his birthday (Saturday 18th May) at one of his current reno projects.
        You get to watch the man himself in action! He’ll be showing you how you can make money from renovations and answering any questions you may have.
        Not only could you learn how to save money for your own renovations, now or in the future, you could learn how those renovations could make you money in the future!
        It’s all about return on investment!
        * Only applicable for new managements signed with Blink Property by close of business on Friday 17th May.”

    • Capital Appreciation

      There was that recent video showing Birchy and his brother painting a dumpy unit somewhere on the coast to be their business base. Definitely a sign of cashflow issues, otherwise why not pay a painter and claim the expenses! And he had no idea about painting brick walls. A long nap roller would have smashed it, yet some clown somewhere had given him ‘painting advice’… I had to laugh at the similarities with his own ‘financial advice’.

      • You might say he’s been painted into a corner? Thank you thank you. I’m here every week. Try the veal..

      • That is gold CA. Is that the same one where he invited people to come over and spend the morning helping him with a reno? I saw it on his Facebook but didn’t watch.

        Living large Birchy!

      • Capital Appreciation

        Not sure Arrow, but that’s surely a sign of cashflow issues. Come and help me paint for some free ‘advice’

      • For @Gav. I had to use google to figure out what you were talking about. Very amusing. Where did you learn about that old stand-up shtick?

      • @Arrow – reckon it’d be a laugh if a bunch of people said they’d help out at his next reno but no-one showed up.

    • Like most people on this site I started off thinking Birch was a dunce. But after watching a few of his videos I think that assessment is way off the mark. He has repeatedly advised his viewers against negative gearing, and that his own properties are all positively geared. That probably answers any questions of cashflow.

      Birch has also been doing this for a while now and seems quite adept at paying unders (relative to current prices). His typical property seems to be one that has been neglected with little buyer interest, but doesn’t require much money to renovate.

      IMO his only risk is the concentration of properties in the Gold Coast. Rising unemployment and a glut of rental properties could end him.

      • Freddy – fair points. I feel sure he is good at buying under value etc. The thing is – after he tarts them up and gets them revalued, he uses that new equity to leverage into another property. So he builds equity dizzyingly fast in a rising market, but spends it just as fast, increasing his stake over and over, and all the while his debt is growing. So he has no real equity buffer, and even a modest house price fall will see all his equity wiped out.

        You make a good point on cashflow. In theory this lets him weather the storm as long as rents stay steady and interest rates stay low. So far so good. But the problem is the interest only reset. As his loans roll over to P and I, if he can’t refi to IO again then those properties will become cashflow negative fast – and probably many at once.

        That’s where the rough end of the pineapple suddenly makes an appearance.

        Zero equity and cash flows drying up.

        Ouch.

    • The question Hempton asked about why doesn’t he walk away is because he can’t, it’s nothing to do with the debt.
      Set aside the garbage about him being retired at 24. The whole thing is his identity. What else is he going to do with his life?

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      One bedroom 600 gorillas. Had to give up “impulsive buying”. 48. I see cats in her future. Also thinking that if she “ignored the noise” she would never have bought.

      33 wardrobe pieces for three months. Pfft…that would last me six years.

    • Single? Borrows $400k+? What will that cost in repayments?
      $400k @ 4% is like $500 P/week. Anyone want to guess her income level? $70k maybe? Probably more like $65k at a non for profit.

      $26k P/year to pay the mortgage so it would consume close to 40% of her income after tax is my guess. That’s at 4% what if rates go back to 6 or 7%?

      She is 48 now. She will be 73 when she retires from paying it off. I hope she likes cats for company.

      But yeah just ignore the noise guys. Jump in, what could go wrong?

      • J BauerMEMBER

        Cats? Yeah right, this is Straya. No way the strata laws will allow cats in the building. I might put a complaint in now.

        As for paying it off by 73, don’t forget strata fees of a couple of hundred a month and the special levies.

      • Yeah FMD… It also assumes she’s never unemployment. Takes few holidays ans never gets sick. But on the flip side renting forever also sucks.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Love the modern language of bad manners …..you now “snap up” a home ……..then you go and “grab your self “ some things at the shops …..
      ……back when ah were a lad my mum would have given me clip in ear for using such vulgar expressions …….now all the bright young things talk like this in their smug way……..ghastly

      • reynmonMEMBER

        My favourite is, “Farming out the kids” so that the mums can get back to work before the Bub has its first poo.

  6. St JacquesMEMBER

    hahahahaha There goes Globulism. KABOOM. Soooo predictable, soooo inevitable. But wait, the global elite and their useful idiots are in denial. And that’s the way they’ll be right up until the end.

  7. Capital Appreciation

    Another Narrabundah (Canberra) auction this morning for this renovated 3 bedder:

    https://www.allhomes.com.au/sale/11-warramoo-crescent-narrabundah-canberra-176697316

    I really should have asked the agents about this one as it had sold late last year for 895K and it doesn’t look like any renovations have been done. Anyway, there was a reasonable crowd there but not one bid despite the auctioneer trying to get things going at 900k. He quickly passed it in and there was some muted applause. Why… oh… why… do people clap! We really should get a Canberra happy clappy squad to go along and clap outrageously at the end of auctions.

    • CA – of course the election win by scrommo and the happy clappers was dire news for the ACT. Remember that the coalition said they are going to fund their election promises largely on the back of another $1.5b cut to the public service and they indicated more agencies would be moved out of the ACT and that the visa processing function will be privatised.

      So far the ACT has avoided the extended price corrections experienced in Sydney and Melbourne. I wonder whether the ACT property market will go its own way lower even if other properties markets turn upwards (??).

      • Apparently the cuts will come at the expense of contractors and travel even though Government has taken delivery of their new chauffeur piloted Dassault Falcon 7x. Oddly enough the VIP fleet budget never seems to be touched. Wonder why?

      • Triage – I got an annoying robo text from the CPSU this week asking me what I thought if the coalition plan to cut 1.5 billion. Is that their policy?

      • Yep. Two days before the election, just after the ad blackout came into effect, Josh and Arnie held a joint press conference to explain how the coalition was going to fund their election promises. My understanding is the largest source of funding was to be from another $1.5b cut to the public service. I see Wing Nut has the word that it will be cuts to contractors and travel (Hello World might lose some cushy contracts…) rather than public servant numbers. But either way it will be a hit to the local economy.

    • Wow! I’ve never heard applause at a passed in auction before CA! Except in my head of course…

    • Just think how worse the rental market would be up there without negative gearing and the capital gains tax concessions!

    • shame isn’t it IP that some people can be so blind to what is shaping up to arguably one of the biggest, if not the biggest, corruption and abuse of power scandals in US history ….

      maybe more in Oz should pay attention and get some insight to how so much that is wrong in our society actually comes about …

      • interested partyMEMBER

        David,
        I can understand their position. How many years have gone by with blatant corruption being openly ignored by TPTB; good people get wound up, and ultimately end up very cynical of the process.

        It is also a testament to the success of the MSM propaganda machine.

        As things unfold, eyes will open, and they too will understand where we are in this great process…..and until then some will choose to throw silly comments at others. I don’t mind, or take any offence. Time will sort it out.
        I intend to keep telling it, just as I have been…..to the ire of several here. Can I be above trolling them back????? that’s my question.

  8. GunnamattaMEMBER

    Gene-editing breakthrough in China comes with urgent call for global rules
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3012615/gene-editing-breakthrough-china-comes-urgent-call-global-rules
    Leading Chinese scientist warns approved modified babies could be just a year or two away
    Technology could be used as a weapon of mass destruction without regulation

    Safe production of gene-edited babies could be possible in just one or two years, and the head of China’s leading genetic research programme says the need is now urgent for international regulations to prevent the technology being used as a weapon of mass destruction.
    Professor Yang Hui said his team had achieved a major breakthrough, tripling the efficiency of a new gene editing tool that can modify DNA in human embryos with unprecedented precision and safety.
    Once the technology is regarded is safe, scientists expect it could be approved for clinical trials and medical treatment on humans in countries where this research is being carried out.

  9. So much for the Warrego flood going down the Darling

    https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/6188274/toorale-in-flood-but-darling-dry-despite-wongs-24m-water-deal/?cs=4704

    And why weren’t those works done ? Because the locals want this station back to agriculture and have been holding off. It is just like Adani, never at any stage did the Qld Labour Party try to stop it, they just wanted someone else to blame for it going through. Really reminiscent of Mrs May’s kabuki theatre over Brexit. They are the same the world over…..bought and paid for.

  10. bobalotMEMBER

    “Labor’s pensioner dental plan gained 10 mentions in this newspaper, while a $2.3 billion move to slash out-of-pocket costs for cancer patients got 21. Franking credits? More than 700 mentions.” – The Age.

    • And it’s just the way the LNP wanted it. Elected with the assistance of a complicit, lazy media.

    • the media got Morrison elected all by themselves. Journalists have failed society. 700 mentions and it wasn’t even reported accurately. It was reported as a retiree tax.

    • And now journalists are telling us Labor lost because the public wants them to be more neoliberal.
      ie. the same people who didn’t predict the result and couldn’t accurately report the policies ie. do their job, are still so sure of their intelligence and judgement that they can assess why Labor lost and that the answer is to move to the right on economics.

    • Interesting.

      If the franking credit reform was only going to impact 5% of the voters, there was no need to take it to the election. Just win the election by playing small target and then implement the reform and see 5% of the voters rant and move on.

      And there was no need for Tanya to say “coal will be phased out”. Unfortunately, coal is still competitive.

      Listen to the clapping on Q&A:

      https://youtu.be/uqJxsc7gCWo?t=440

      The audience is not a random sample of the population – the hypocritical baby boomers do not attend Q&A.

    • Here’s the media blaming the media… again. https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election-2019/with-one-click-the-liberals-inadvertently-unleashed-the-ultimate-election-scare-campaign-20190601-p51tgy.html

      Labor was smashed by a happy-clapper with essentially no policies. If that doesn’t say working class disconnect, it’s hard to know what does? Blaming the media is how you keep your well city party hack job while not actually needing to say you were wrong.

      • Yes Labor has disconnected from its traditional supporters but the Media was beyond shocking in the election.

      • I blame the Australian people 100% for this fiasco. Low voter turn out, apathy and the ability to cut through bullsh1t has all but vanished. Australians were once renowned for our bullsh1t radar but clearly this has all but vanished as we wallowed in MAFS and crappy home renno programmes.

      • Errrr. Polls told labour Bill Shorten was less loved than Scono, Stalin, anybody and you wonder why they lost?

  11. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Malcolm has got himself a nice little earner …while he writes his memoir…….now WTF would buy that ?…..
    ……suggested title …..
    The man who never was …..

  12. OP from legendary Jim Grant
    https://www.nysun.com/national/regime-change-for-the-fed-and-honest-rates/90694/

    What we need, the new brooms at the central bank would say, are rates discovered in the market, not imposed from on high. In other words, green interest rates. Unprocessed, unpasteurized, un-fluoridated interest rates. Cage-free, cruelty-free, hormone-free, antibiotic-free, gluten-free, grass-fed, heart-healthy, probiotic, non-GMO, non-dairy, free-range, all-natural, sustainable, organic, farm-to-table interest rates.
    Not necessarily higher rates. Not necessarily lower rates. But, certainly, truer rates. Ladies and gentlemen: Free interest rates.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Now that is exactly what we need
      ……not interest rates determined by somebody on a million dollar salary……pontificating …..let the market decide ….

  13. Had quite a lot of trouble finding a direct link to the auction results on the RE.com.au front page, but google always prevails.

    https://www.realestate.com.au/auction-results/

    NSW
    Reported Clearance Rate: 66%
    Sold at Auction: 203
    Sold Prior: 11
    Withdrawn: 30
    Passed In: 80
    Auctions Scheduled: 618

    VIC
    Reported Clearance Rate: 65%
    Sold at Auction: 279
    Sold Prior: 10
    Withdrawn: 10
    Passed In: 149
    Auctions Scheduled: 699

    Real clearance rates seem closer to 35-40%

    • Volumes insanely low. Only the properties that agents are most confident of selling are being taken to auction. These figures are now virtually useless. Won’t stop the spruikers quoting them though.

      • bzunicaMEMBER

        Number sold is the most important indication of confidence for me. Today 243 were sold in Sydney, almost identical to last year’s 238, but markedly below 2017’s 445. These numbers indicate that there is still weakness out there in the Sydney property market

  14. 21 sales at 2444.

    A few mid to high price properties who had been listed for months sold in the same week.

    Animal spirits (and easy credit) are back..

    • J BauerMEMBER

      Port macquarie is a funny place. The building up there has been crazy, where do all the people work that are buying those sh!tty McDonald Jones type houses.

      Then there are houses selling for $600k in Wauchope! How do the locals afford them?

  15. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Sri Lanka 6/69 v Kiwis. The pitch is so green it is indistinguishable from the outfield.

    Surely a world cup deserves better.

    • Typical bubble behaviour. They all forgot prices started falling well before RC and elections. Nothing has changed since then. If anything, things got and are getting worse.

      • Exactly!
        Aussies likely being sucked in by spruiked articles without even thinking about how the system actually works. And for me even if new easy loans were available & prices start to rise I’d be waiting a year or so until we have a better idea of how we will be affected by trade war & probably more importantly which way the world economy will go. So many economic indicators pointing down with many stock markets etc likely at key inflection points the downside likely outweighs the up

    • You have to admire their 100% comment to the spruik. Remember Cooley only sold 58% yesterday.

    • This is all hype. No changes to interest rates or lending conditions have been made, so all buyers were likely the last of the “greater fools” flushed out post election.

    • Pent up demand is there for sure, but I doubt it is deep. It will be swamped by the wave of boomer sales hitting the market in Spring.

    • “knocked down and replaced with duplexes”? Can someone explain the economics of this? $1.6M purchase. Cost to build the duplexes – $700k? Creating two blocks slightly under 150sqm each. You’d have to sell for a minimum of $1.2M each, just to break even. On the plus side, I guess you don’t need a yard if your property backs onto a large park.

  16. Fantastic, I agree where did our creativity go? It’s been killed for sure. When I look at modernist design, mud brick homes and art deco, Californian bungalows etc.. I see craft. I see creativity. I see something worth preserving. When I look at moden homes I want to throw up.

    Most new cars all look exactly alike too. That’s why I got a Station Wagon. Everyone is going for SUVs. Boring..

    https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/one-of-australias-most-acclaimed-architects-says-weve-lost-our-imagination-as-a-nation/news-story/ba4ad7e9de2cc35fcfdc878356db5ba7

      • Gav! Know your history! DS = Citroen DS
        Also known as “Goddess” because a) DS sounds like diesse which is froggy for goddess and 2) they are so beautiful (in the right light, possibly with beer goggles on)

      • Ahhh haha. Yes the old Maserati motors in those things are cool, but they have never quite lit a fire for me. I just never liked French cars. Maybe a Renault Alpine is an exception.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Everyone is frightened of not fitting in. Nobody wants to be outed on social media as being different. Advertising thrives on that fear. Honestly, how many people do you know that don’t give a proverbial flying and just do what’s best for them?

      Furiously conforming is what’s in because that’s what the flashy ad says.

    • From the link:

      “But Western Australia Housing Minister Peter Tinley said Mr Morrison needed look no further than WA for a model that worked. And he said there was no reason why Keystart could not be rolled out nationally. “No other jurisdiction has this sort of model,” Mr Tinley said. “They’ve had them in the past and they’ve actually failed.”

      I repeat: “They’ve had them in the past and they’ve actually failed.”

      Hasn’t WA’s property market been in the doldrums for years?

      Then they say:

      “The whole scheme’s objective was to get people into their first home, then when they could afford to refinance, get out,” Mr Collins said.

      Sounds like if prices aren’t rising, then one can’t just “get out.”

      • Also agree that the ABC should be sold immediately. The rusted on Lib/Nat rural voters will cheer it on and it will be too late to realise no-one will fund any loss making services to their areas.

      • They are running ads on radio, saying that they are the one we all trust. I used to trust them, but that was a long time ago, and personally I think they are interested in everyone else excpet the people of this country. They still have some good bits, but I’m very selective what I watch. Hardly watch TV at all now.

    • “has sold at auction for $253,000”
      “was deemed so unliveable that nobody was allowed inside to see it”
      “I’ve only seen the pictures so I’m not sure what to do first but I think I’ll rip it all out and start from scratch”
      “The median price for a house in Marsden is $380,000”

      Only $127K off the median for the suburb already and he has to gut and renovate. Going to to be tight, high risk he will over capitalise.

      • He’s not a “developer”. Going to live in the house.

        Mr Narayn, originally from Sydney but now living in Ipswich, said he would eventually live in the house but would take his time tackling the renovation.
        “I wanted a project for myself, I’ve been longing to do something and this is quite the project,” he said.
        “I’ve only seen the pictures so I’m not sure what to do first but I think I’ll rip it all out and start from scratch.”

      • Termite country this…….it all depends if they are into it……probably the wrong age to have a hardwood frame like you would want if you are going to reline it inside and out. Land size just not enough to split for R600. he will need to live in it but if he does the work himself not that stupid. The $380,000 are double blocks……about $305,000 for fair ones of these. Walking distance to quite a few things.

    • The Grey Rider

      Going by the condition of the house, Zillmere is about to get a dose of vibrancy…

    • Fake news! Besides probably not being the crappest house around, Marsden is in Logan, not Brisbane. Commute options are all going to be 1hr+ to the CBD. Imagine paying that price before the rebuild to be that far away from anything relevant. How good is Australia

  17. Sorry if this link has been posted already but …

    here’s a massive hit job on Uber. If you factor in that the only apparent attraction of Uber comes from it shifting the costs of vehicles it uses onto the drivers and pays them at best minimum wages then the argument is that Uber has no competitive advantage. Sooner or later, end of story.

    https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2019/05/ubers-path-of-destruction/

    And here’s an interesting factoid “A recent study of drivers for app-based companies in New York City showed that 90 percent were recent immigrants (largely from Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh), and 20 percent required public income supplements such as food stamps.” Vibrancy and the working poor combined: sounds like scummo’s Australia.

    The arguments used in this article should be grist for the local class action started against Uber.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/03/uber-sued-by-thousands-of-australian-taxi-drivers-in-class-action.html

    • Yep. Uber also initially had a big advantage in customer service, given the easy app bookings and reviews for drivers etc, compared to horrendous and complacent taxis. But now taxis have been forced to catch up, and there are a lot of Uber clones too, some of that advantage has been eroded.

      I still prefer Uber as a customer. But the case is less compelling.

    • I used Uber in the US last Nov and it was crap. Convenient at times, but crap. I had one guy who argued with his girlfriend on the phone the whole trip to the airport so I just got out and didn’t tip. If I can avoid it now I do…even use cabs in preference after being surcharged

    • Uber prices seem to have gone up lately. I don’t think they are actually cheaper than cabs anymore…

    • In a fair situation, a government would make Uber et al, illegal given its unfair consumer and worker practices.

      But, given it employs new migrants, the government actively supports Uber, so that the new migrants it wants to attract, to keep its GDP figures up, have jobs.

      Sad.

    • The taxi industry will come together and use an Uber-like platform, with individual taxis competing to get to the customer first – driving down prices, and driving down wait times – and in time, people will prefer a licensed taxi driver over an Uber drive who may or may not have a great driving record or knowledge of the city.

      Uber is a bad bet.

  18. https://youtu.be/MTWO8jlU4WA
    Top 5 African Nations in debt to Chine
    Some bad deals for Africa for sure, but hope they are getting some benefit, maybe if the yuan is devalued 20% or so it’ll help! But Africa should be building more itself if billions of dollars were not being bled overseas by big business (& local corruption was reduced) they would be able to.
    More money flows out than in (& this probably doesn’t include moist of their Chinese flows)
    https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/may/24/world-is-plundering-africa-wealth-billions-of-dollars-a-year

      • Commsec with its international trade section.
        There is a bit of paper work, but not too much.
        It is easy to use, and you can directly invest in foreign stock markets.
        The average investor must keep in mind FX risk. This can make a big difference to your final result, one way or the other.

      • @Anders/proofreaders I wasn’t too phased by it as I worked there for years, and all the tax items I got went to my accountant. I never tried to understand the tax side of it, but there are reciprocal tax agreements so not bad. I’m glad I did invest when I moved back here, but got out with all the trade war stuff, plus I think there could be a big backlash against US tech surveillance capital.

      • I think a lot of the fund managers have changed their international ETFs to Australian domiciled which takes care of some of the tax issues.

    • Burb. Post question again in a members only zone and I will give you info. Look for a comment by me on anything at all, then reply. I should get a notification by email and away we go. I might miss it if you just ask the Q cause I don’t read every single post.

  19. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    … BRITAIN …

    University agrees to pay £61,000 to settle case with graduate who complained of ‘Mickey Mouse’ degree … UK Telegraph
    … behind paywall …

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/01/university-agrees-pay-61000-settle-case-graduate-complained/

    A graduate who sued her university after claiming she ended up with a “Mickey Mouse degree” has received a £61,000 out of court settlement.

    Pok Wong, 30, launched a legal action against Anglia Ruskin University complaining that its prospectus “fraudulently misrepresented” the business course she enrolled on in 2011.

    After a two-and-a-half year legal battle, Ms Wong and the university have settled the dispute.

    The university agreed to pay her a £15,000 settlement as well as make a £46,000 contribution towards her legal costs.

    The case could now encourage other students to use the courts to ensure they receive value for money for the thousands of pounds they pay in tuition fees. … read more via hyperlink above (behind paywall) …

  20. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/gy4d5w/people-are-moving-to-smaller-cities-in-search-of-affordable-houses-that-dont-exist

    Just read this, it’s in the links above but I am usually skeptical vice will put out anything that isn’t trash, but this article captures the Millennial trap. And yet house prices are so much lower in the US, but student debt tends to be higher.

    It kind of makes me want to buy a house now, because I can and because it would be cheaper in repayments than what I currently spend renting. I just hate how this is becoming the accepted norm, yet they say inflation is low. My arse. Inflation is through the fing roof! Just gotta look outside a basket of useless shyte.

    • I believe the picture will be much clearer by May next year. I am just like you, waiting to buy a home, money available, putting up with renting. Fretting about being put further behind the 8-ball if prices explode again. But the risk I see is that I might buy now and then watch my wealth slowly erode over the next 10 years if prices grind back to long-term normals. I am prepared to risk missing the absolute bottom to avoid being a victim of a classic bull trap. I really can’t see how prices can go significantly up given the sheer amount of debt individuals are carrying already.
      Meanwhile, I am learning to sail keelboats to keep myself sane

      • I work on my cars to keep me busy and mind occupied. The missus and I are thinking we will go back to Melbourne next 6 months, she’s ready to have kids. I wanted to buy a home first, but I don’t want to buy something out of desperation and regret it. If I’m gonna pay $30-40k in stamp duty. I’m never moving again…

        I’m lucky in that my mum has a house in Kinglake Victoria and she wants to live there. So her place in South Melbourne, we may be able to rent/live in until we find our own place. No Garage spaces though!

        Still I can store the cars up at a garage in the country and I might look at renting in somewhere like Reservoir (big garages) since we looked at buying 3 places in the area and I want to see if we would have regretted it. 😁

        If prices go up again I’m gonna hold off and wait. It can’t go on forever and I think a bulltrap is forming. People think it’s business as usual.

        Hoping for a Chinese debt crisis (which sounds horrible) but that or some other global credit crunch. Then I’ll be out buying with cash.

      • I already work for a big tech company, 1 of the ones that love young people because of their lack of family commitments. After 10 years there though, I’m finding it hard to keep up with the young work crazy till you burn out types.

        I’m looking for a more 9-5 kind of job that maybe pays a lot less but I can switch off and go home at night without the tether to the office/work. Hence I’m thinking of working on cars or something along those lines.

        I did find an awesome old warehouse in Kentucky (Louisville) for like $550k USD. Absolutely amazing place. Would be $10m worth in Sydney. I can’t get the missus to leave Australia though.

        Her father is 73 now and he was recently unwell. Makes her want to go back to Melbourne. We have already spent 12 years away. So I don’t blame her really.

      • I’d second that Austin is a nice place to live, much better than Dallas.
        It’s closer to the coast but Corpus Christi / Padre Island isn’t like any part of the Australian East coast it’s just a sort of swamp gets much better on South Parde but that’s a long drive.
        Austin still has a great music community and a nice atmosphere.

    • Same for me, but I still want to go back after family committments, or move to the country as Melbourne is driving me insane.

  21. bolstroodMEMBER

    I have read through all the comments, all the great issues of the day, and, only once did a commenter come close to mentioning the great crisis of our time.
    Species extinction, driven by human induced planetary heating, in turn caused by burning fossil fuels.
    MB champions gas reservation as the cure for our exorbitant electricity prices, but does not look to the lie that burning gas is a transition fuel to a carbon free energy supply.
    The Lie ? Yes the lie propagated and beloved by the petrochemical industries which see it as the avenue by which they can continue their “business as usual ” model.
    https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/05/30/gas-loser-and-its-time-move-report-debunks-big-oil-myth-natural-gas-can-help-fight?

    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/29052019/puffin-deaths-arctic-climate-change-alaska-wildlife-biodiversity?utm_

  22. Gee, you really have to wonder how bad things are at Wespac for Bill Evans to be putting this pea for QE. Can’t help but feel Westpac might really want some ‘attractive funding’ from the RBA based on its pools of loans to Mr IQ… I wonder just how fragile things really are at the banks.

    “The most likely forms of QE would include the RBA purchasing asset backed securities issued by the non-banks or providing attractive funding for the banks secured against their securitised portfolios of mortgages aimed at supporting existing borrowers and possibly tied to new lending targets. Note that the RBA already holds 1.7 million mortgages, 25% of the value of all residential mortgages, on behalf of the banks to support the
    $243 billion CLF liquidity facility. This facility could be added to;drawn down for long periods at attractive rates; to support a huge liquidity boost to the banking system.”
    https://www.westpac.com.au/docs/pdf/aw/economics-research/WestpacWeekly.pdf

  23. ErmingtonPlumbing

    From above thread,

    “haroldusMEMBER
    June 1, 2019 at 12:44 am
    Do you have any more information on this?”

    Lol,…you cheeky cnut!
    😘

      • Actually it was quite interesting.
        Conventional history is that De Qiros on his voyage from South America west across the pacific missed NZ & Australia & ended up in what is now Vanuatu.
        And Torres’ did sail along south East PNG thru what is now the Torre strait, but never sighted Australians & also failed to turn south.

  24. haroldusMEMBER

    Watching the replay of Aus Afgh the last wicket just fell for Afgh and they started playing “All by Myself” by Eric Carmen

  25. All Shorten had to do was vow to cut immigration and he would’ve had tens of thousands of people coming out everywhere he went, shouting his name and crying and reaching out to touch him. Like this bloke.

    https://youtu.be/N7PpCgBYvFg

    The ALP are blinded by a fog of virtue though, so he couldn’t see the truth right in front of him. Or perhaps he could, but was powerless in that face of all that virtue.

    • Nice overdriven tone out of a semi-hollow body, and some pretty tasty playing for one so young.

      Just in case there are any of the misinformed out there….this is a Peter Green song, not Santana, and Green did it with Fleetwood Macbacj in the day when they were a proper band.

      If anybody had godlike tone and true feeling in his music it was Peter Green.

      And while I’m here, I’d just like to mention Paul Kossoff. The poor bastard died a terrible death but his name should be kept alive. What tone and feel.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        I did a gig on Sat night using a borrowed Marshall DSL 201 (I think it was the 201, not the 401)

        https://legendarytones.com/marshall-jcm-2000-dsl-201/

        Disappointingly he didn’t have the footswitch, so I couldn’t check out the Clean/OD1/OD2 channels. I had to use it as a one channel amp.

        I do 3 noises when I play (clean/crunch/lead), so with something like the marshall last night, I set it for the crunch tone and use a pedal for gain (not so much drive). The one I’ve had some luck with is the xotic sl drive (https://xotic.us/effects/sl-drive). So the pedal is pushing the crunch channel to get a lead sound. Only prob is the driven crunch channel acts sort of like a compressor, adding sustain but not so much volume. Not that much of a problem with only 1 guitar, but with 2 guitars you need to get louder than the rhythm when you do lead.

        To get the clean sound, I roll off the volume on the pot, and lessen the pick attack.

        The Marshall had a good tone, but was a tiny bit toppy. Good chunk in the palm mutes and alternate picking single note chugs.

        Do you use an AB to get the different channels on the SV20?

      • I jumper the two channels on my Marshall with a short patch lead and use pedals for control of volume and crunch. Go to about 4:50 here to see what I mean. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvTvvc6MxNU

        There’s a guy call Fuzzdog in the UK who makes great pedal kits. I’ve built copies of a Colorsound Powerboost, a Klon Centaur and couple of others. The Colorsound is a fabulous clean boost…just click on the button and your volume really jumps out of the mix. Some people use the Klon that way, but I use it as an overdrive.

        https://shop.pedalparts.co.uk/ These kits are really high quality and easy to make if you have a bit of mechanical skill, a soldering iron and a multimeter.

  26. I spent the weekend binge watching the new HBO mini series about Chernobyl.
    I highly recommend this series for anyone that cares about the whole Nuclear power issue.
    Personally I spent that weekend in early May of 1986 riding around the Austrian Alps somewhat oblivious to the fallout danger, the radioactive cloud from Chernobyl first traveled over Sweden and than headed south with a lot of the fallout occurring over Austria due to rain caused by the thermal uplift at the Alps.
    It’s interesting to think back to that time and understand the information and misinformation that circulated following the explosion and core meltdown.
    It was a different era (to the last 30 years) with two super powers and lots of distrust. Nothing that the Soviets said was ever to be completely taken at face value but interestingly neither was anything that the Americans said.
    I read somewhere (a long time ago) that US nuclear scientists were well aware of the inherent design flaw in the Soviet RBMK reactor that exploded at Chernobyl, but the politics of the situation meant that they couldn’t share this information with appropriate Soviet authorities. From this perspective Chernobyl was completely preventable but for mistrust and the Politics of secrecy.

    • roylefamilyMEMBER

      https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2005/pr38/en/index1.html

      The estimated 4000 casualties may occur during the lifetime of about 600 000 people under consideration. As about quarter of them will eventually die from spontaneous cancer not caused by Chernobyl radiation, the radiation-induced increase of about 3% will be difficult to observe. However, in the most highly exposed cohorts of emergency and recovery operation workers, some increase in particular cancers (e.g., leukemia) has already been observed.

      • thanks but I think the whole issue is way under reported
        Many engineers that I worked with in St Petersburg were peripherally involved with Chernobyl and and they all tell stories of friends that died of Cancer a few years later.
        Not sure what the real death toll is but it’s way higher than 4000.

    • I haven’t seen the HBO series yet, but about 5-6 years ago I spent ages on YouTube watching documentaries on it and fascinated by the whole thing and town.

      My sister and I were talking about going there to see it ourselves and I was trying to educate myself on the risks/dangers. Better to go in Winter with the snow down as it helps act as a barrier etc..

      They sent those men into their deaths, which just proves Goverments don’t care about you. Hence why they are feeding FHBs to the Ponzi now, in order to feed fresh blood into their negative equity grinder. Munch munch munch..

    • After the first episode I binged on Chernobyl audiobooks. The following two are worth a read/listen:
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36204894-chernobyl
      https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40538681-midnight-in-chernobyl
      After learning more, I really wonder if bureaucratic organisations are at all possible of digesting and responding to unforseen events.

      Any suggestions for something on Chernobyl that is more technical than the above books, particularly focusing on the later work searching for all the fuel?

    • Have a bunch of pro-nuclear power people at work. When you point out that Australia does not have the necessary infrastructure nor expertise to support nuclear energy and the subsequent cost to establish such infrastructure would make the cost per kWh prohibitive let alone the cost per kWh of the plant itself makes nuclear power unviable without heavy government subsidies. Being RWNJ’s they wouldn’t have a problem with that.

      • bobalotMEMBER

        It’s a strange world.
        The Green-Left are championing market oriented approaches to power generation and pollution and the right are demanding massive government subsidies for huge white elephant projects that fit with their ideology.

    • haroldusMEMBER

      I’m listening to the self-serving cvnt on the replay as we speak. There’s just something about it that sets me off (apart from being the most divisive captain in my lifetime who prematurely ended some great careers and white-anting one of Australia’s most successful captain).

      Don’t mind slats, he’s obviously on the edge.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        There’s your problem. You still watch it. The actual seeing of people is a link to the outside. No good can come of that.

        A true shut-in listens on the wireless…while constructing a WW2 battleship out of nail and nasal hair clippings…

      • bzunicaMEMBER

        His personality is something but he just talks and talks and talks. I find myself muting the commentary because he just won’t be quiet. I thought he was going to talk through a delivery at one point

  27. It used to be a rare condition seen in only the most committed stoners: unrelenting extreme vomiting, nausea and abdominal pain brought on by years of regular marijuana consumption.

    But for emergency room doctors in Colorado, patients coming in with Cannabis Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) is now a regular occurrence.

    “[We see] people that smoke every day, unusually up to 10 times a day,” said Andrew Monte, a toxicologist at the UC Health University of Colorado Hospital.

    “We’ll get these episodes where [they] have this unremitting vomiting syndrome. They come into the emergency department because they’ve been throwing up,” he said.

    CHS sufferers do not respond to typical anti-nausea medicine.

    “We actually treat them with antipsychotics. That seems to be the most effective treatment,” Dr Monte said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-02/the-dark-side-of-legal-marijuana-five-years-on-in-colorado/11160420

    • “His latest peer-reviewed research found that cannabis-related emergency room visits for psychiatric problems have increased fivefold in the state.”

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        This is why we need to shun the dope fiends. Their drug of choice is most unsociable. I have no time for people who don’t know how to party properly.

      • 5% THC would be considered a natural historical baseline, 30%+ is not uncommon these days. Strangely or not it parallels the Human experience with cocaine, multi vitamin – mild stimulant leaf used by indigenous peoples gets refined and sold and considered a social status drug.

    • Legalisation of dope is idiotic policy.

      If there are some medicinal benefits then prescription by medical practitioners can sort that out.

      As for the argument it is less harmful than alcohol well that is setting a very low bar.

      Decriminalisation is about as far as it should go.

      • Yeah, but doped up youth don’t riot in the streets… so, win-win: they get to f*ck with the youth’s future and get away with it.

    • “We need more 1mmigration so that even renting in Melbourne will be unaffordable because a family can’t outbid a 5-man sharehouse.”

      Try 3 families or 7, 8, 9 or more migrants per ex Australian modest 2 bed dwelling – all paying $160-180 a week for the bunkshare, Wifi, bag of rice & toilet roll a week deal.
      8 migrants on ‘student visas’ in the 2 bed unit x $160 = $1,280 a week or $66,000 cash.
      Only $400 week or $21,000 (legal occupancy of minimal rent) actually declared.

      How many ex Australian dwellings now converted to migrant only slumshare?
      At least 475,000 in just Sydney or Melbourne.

      2.561 million third world unskilled TR & SCV migrant guestworkers in Australia with 87% or 2.3 million in Sydney (1.3 million of 5.2 million pop or 1 in 4 people) and Melbourne (1 million or 1 in 5 people)..

      And 92% ‘rent’ in private shared accommodation’ the ABS code for migrant slumshare.

      That’s 2.1 million third world migrants in foreign owned bunk share – 3 families or 7, 8, 9 fake foreign students per each little fetid foreign owned dwelling.

      Say 7 per dwellings = 300,000 dwellings.

      Plus 1.9 million third world unskilled migrant PR in the last decade, 87% in Sydney & Melbourne and 63% also rent or 1.05 million – also in ‘private shared accommodation.
      Say only 6 per dwelling. That’s another 175,000 ex Australian dwellings – now foreign owned & migrant infested.
      Total 475,000 foreign owned & migrant occupied dwellings in just Sydney & Melbourne alone.

      15 years of low level modest normal Australian housing
      rental supply converted to foreign owned criminal syndicates running migrant slumshare.

      Some global awards.🏆
      🥇Sydney Pyrmont 58 in a 3 bed house.
      Landlord pulling in $8,700 a week/ $452,000 a year.
      Have a look inside. This is how they live.
      https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/city-east/city-of-sydney-investigation-team-targets-illegal-overcrowding-in-private-dwellings/news-story/33e0ebc3aeb1c09082b6c86df08cb5dc

      🥈44 Nepalese in a 2 bed unit in North Parramatta.

      Buildings.
      🥇Regis Towers : 2,300 Thai vice workers, Chinese, Indians, Bangla & Malays as ‘foreign students’ or other visa rackets in 282 units.
      🥈World Tower Chinese vice HQ,
      🥉 Luminere Korean Vice HQ,
      🏅Summit, 🏅Quay apartments, 🏅Green Square, Mascot Square and similar all over Sydney.
      Suburbs
      🎗Burwoo, Strathwoo, Rhodes, a faithful replica of a Guangzhou slums.
      🎖Auburn, North Parramatta, replica Dhaka, Mumbai & Nepalese slums.

    • Public system is broken. Am surprised no-one told her to get a job and pay to see a private specialist. Have a go and you’ll get a go yada yada yada,,,

  28. Mining BoganMEMBER

    This will be fun. After seeing this article…

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/from-afl-to-real-estate-jobe-watson-turns-to-buyers-advocacy-843318/

    …let’s make a list of ex-sports stars who have gone broke because property. I’ll start.

    Ex-Austraian fast bowler Craig McDermott
    Ex-New Zealand rugby league player Jarrod McCracken.
    Ex-England cricketer Adam Hollioake
    Ex-Australian soccer player Lucas Neill

    That’s all I can think of off the top of my head. George Best is the only one who did it properly. Maybe James Hunt too.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Actually, further reading shows 60% of EPL and NBA players and 80% of NFL players end up bankrupt within a few years of retirement. Wow.

      I’d love to see some numbers on Australian sports people.

      • Great physical gifts and skills don’t correlate with intellectual ability. Look at Kathy Freeman’s post-olympic career as a sporting commentator for a good example.

        After from a few blokes like George Gregan (who now runs a multi-million dollar business employing hundreds of people) most professional sports people, particularly footballers, seem like dim-witted bozos to me. The fact that most of them blow their massive fortunes on stupid sh1t or get ripped off by fancy dancers doesn’t surprise me at all.

      • @LSWCHP

        “Tale as old as time….”

        Also, they seem dimwitted bozos because they are dimwitted bozos!

      • They are massive owners of property. Their agents all get them into it and take some more fees.

  29. innocent bystander

    I know we are corrupt & stupid
    but has there been anything in sport to outdo the FFA and the treatment of the Matilda’s coach?

    • If only you knew what I knew. It’s funny how sportsball mirrors the rest of society including the media and how sycophants try and defend said media. Then again the FFA is just more corporate/state/media intertwined bs, at least there is a genuine grassroots forming against it.

      • Ha ha … I wasn’t referring to myself. Certain members of the media were making vague claims, probably engaging in gossip, being non specific while taking shots at Stajcic and when quizzed about specifics said, “If only you knew what I knew”.