MB Fund Podcast: Oil Canary Dead in the Cage?

This week’s LIVE webinar (12:30pm AEST, Thursday 20th June) – we dive into our take on the current state of the global liquid dinosaur trade.

  • Key short term fundamentals reflection on recent price volatility
  • Will the resurgence in US Shale force an OPEC+ extension?
  • How do these short term measures play into our longer forecasts?

Join MB Fund’s Head of Investments Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith and Tim Fuller as we drill into some of the key macro drivers for global oil.

Slides can be found here.

Seminar info can be found here.

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Tim Fuller

Head of Operations at Nucleus Wealth
Financial adviser seeking to make quality investment solutions more accessible to everyday Australians.
Tim Fuller


  1. I’d like to see the comparable cost of getting say 98% reliability of supply from different sources.
    Clearly, when the wind blows or the sun shines, they provide cheap power, but if we want or need 100% availability and hence need backup supply from say pumped-hydro or any other source, what would the cost be in that case?

  2. Post-2014 price fall, the amount of capital directed at exploration, appraisal and project development fell dramatically. Given the life-cycle of finding and then bringing oil projects into production, would it be wrong to assume that production growth outside of the USA, which as you point out has worked under a special funding model, but globally will continue to fall?

  3. Woodside and FAR, who are seeking to develop a +500 mmbbl deepwater oilfield offshore Senegal have separately estimated that the project will breakeven at US$35/bbl. Since Saudi Arabia relies on cash flow from its national oil production company to actually run the nation, it requires a price of over US$75/bbl just to balance the books.
    Globally, oilfield output declines naturally at around 6% pa (~4.8 mmbbls per day pa on 80 mmbbls per day of crude and condensate) and LTO wells in the USA decline by 50% to 70% over the first 6 months or typically from say 1,000 BOPD to 200 BOPD within 12 months.