Links 17 June 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing:





Leith van Onselen

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

Latest posts by Leith van Onselen (see all)


  1. Relevant StakeholderMEMBER

    ‘ (Japanese) 7-Eleven stores struggling in face of labor shortage’

    *ponders potential solutions*


    Soggy Auckland market takes heat out of million-dollar areas … Susan Edmunds … Stuff NZ

    Seven Auckland suburbs have dropped out of the “million-dollar club” over the past year.

    Corelogic has released its latest “Mapping the Market” report, which shows there are 91 Auckland suburbs with a median property value of more than $1 million.

    In June 2014, there were just 34. … read more via hyperlink above …

  3. China’s Slowdown Is Fraying Nerves … Adam Minter … Bloomberg ( Opinion l)

    A social media uproar over an obscure government decree shows how anxious the country’s most skilled workers are.

    Chinese leaders argue their citizens can outlast Americans in a trade war because they can endure hardship better. But, as China’s economic slowdown deepens, there’s a growing sense of restlessness. Not only does the next rung of the ladder look increasingly out of reach for many Chinese, they’re starting to question whether government decrees can fix the situation. … read more via hyperlink above …

  4. … NEW ZEALAND …

    State of shock: How our buildings save lives but little else … Rob Mitchell … Dominion Post / Stuff NZ
    … With its late June announcements, will the New Zealand Government via its Housing & Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford (and others) FINALLY deal effectively with land supply / urban limits abolition and the proper debt financing of infrastructure … TO JUST ALLOW earthquake resilient low and light affordable building to be placed on sound ground ? …

    New Zealaned Housing Minister Phil Twyfords speech to the New Zealand Initiative Members Retreat … New Zealand Government / Beehive

    From Kiwibuild to Kiwis Building … Dr Eric Crampton … The New Zealand Initiative

  5. At what AUD/USD rate do banks have a liability problem? Yeah yeah I know they’re hedged but I am sceptical, like who is on the other side of the trade? A moron ??

    • The answer is a moron. Once it’s hedged it’s hedged. You can just extend as long as your credit rating holds up. There are two issues
      – the interest rate differential and seeing as how, for now, we are generally dealing in fractions of a percent that doesn’t look too much of a threat.
      – we eventually runout of morons. At that point all the previous morons who are holding the A$ debt are not wanting to own it anymore. Then it all starts to cascade. What was thought to be safe, at that point, turns out not to have been safe at all!! We’ll get the ‘Hoooocooodanode?’ response from the RBA Treasury, Banks and politicians.
      (I guess the second isn’t a problem either – according to Skippy, Bill Barnacle et al we can just keep printing more and more of it to pay the interest on the interest and anything else we need to import – ad infinitum. )
      No worries mate!!!

      (Jimbo – I once thought the tax payer was on the hook too. It ain’t so except for the whole idiotic thinking leading us to living in a fool’s paradise with a grossly over-valued currency- we’re ALL on the hook. However, even if the holder of the A$ is the FED with a SWAP, then it is the Fed who is the moron. Both currencies are headed towards zero but I’d guess the A$ a fair bit faster than the USD.)

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        You’re unbanned?!!!!!

        No more ichi-ban for flawse!

        By what miracle is this come to pass? Did you promise never to mention that decelarating growth is still growth (China) and that the RBA holds all the strings when it comes to housing not crashing (Australia)?

        PS Yay!

  6. innocent bystander

    so, for (a few?) days now no MB threads locked/subscriber only?

    MB looking to ramp clicks into eofy?
    or is this in prep for move to new host?
    or does everyone have a member now?