Daily iron ore price update (time to short)

Friday 21 June 2019

Spot at new bubble highs. Paper even higher. Steel is still going nowhere indicating that steel mill margins are getting smashed. The charts:

For me the news of the return of Brucutu is the beginning of the end for the bubble. There are further supports ahead:

the PBOC will cut interest rates the moment that the Fed does;
trade war rhetoric will ebb and flow;
as Vale volumes return, steel mills will restock inventories;
Vale volumes have not returned yet but 50mt will over H2.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.