The disaster of ScoMo

The media drivel about the election is as widespread as it is wrong. ScoMo is not a saviour of anything. He lost LNP votes and was fantastically fortunate to regain them through preferences from people voting for change. Moreover he did so by promising to do nothing so what now can he do?.

Let’s run through Australia’s critical challenges and see what ScoMo will do about them:

  • climate change: zero;
  • gas crisis to metastasise into LNG imports;
  • electricity prices to rise further;
  • over-population to worsen;
  • infrastructure deficit to rise;
  • wages growth to fall away;
  • no tax reform;
  • no structural reform to the Aussie economy away from houses and holes;
  • no competition reform;
  • no innovation reform;
  • no productivity reform;
  • no banking reform, indeed the opposite in regulatory wind back;
  • no monetary reform;
  • action on China’s silent invasion is zero so far but let’s hope…
  • US alliance, see above;
  • Asia, see above;
  • Pacific, see above.

What we will get is a short term budget surplus based entirely on the good fortune of dirt, tax cuts for the rich over the horizon, plus anything and everything to lift house prices, which will fail to ignite any new boom, running headlong into the next leg of the Chinese structural slowdown and bulk commodity crash in 2020/21.

ScoMo is another kick of the can of the broken Coalition political economy model commenced under John Howard and Peter Costello. We already know where this leads.

Expect the polity to grow ever angrier as they are lied to about income growth that never comes, wealth inequality that only gets worse, utility prices that only rise, the crush loading of every road, train, hospital and school, and ever greater corruption in corporate Australia.

That’s the Messiah from The Shire.

Hallelujah!

Comments

    • In fairness, ScoMo probably wasn’t prepared to win the election. Bill was handed a silver platter and decided to poop on it instead. At least ScoMo pooped at maccas instead.

      • Bill made the mistake of actually offering policies. The average Australian is so unaccustomed to that kind of jiggery pockery that they were suspicious. The Libs re-inforced that with “here are some lies about what Labor are proposing. They are going to take all your money away. Where as we are going to give you more money because everything is awesome!”

  1. You lot voted for it. Now you gotta own it. I can’t think of a worse Goverment in 20 years. I’d take Rudd and Gillard back anyday..

    /Waits for response lol..

    • Rudd inherited one of the best fiscal positions in the entire modern history – zero net debt – and quickly splashed $10b worth of FHOG (in 2009 AUD). Scomo will not or cannot repeat or out-do that folly.

      Oh I see, you were being sarcastic.

      • I thought Scomo had already promised another FHOG cash splash prior to the election?

      • Really? Do you actually think that everyone has forgotten about the GFC? Yeah, but other than the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression everything was tickety boo when Rudd became PM.

      • Gavin is just a bit salty. I think he’ll be fine ina week or two, if we let him be.

      • I did. Scott Morrison won the policy debate. People want aspiration, resource sector jobs, and minimal taxes. They don’t want their very hard earned money spaffed away on a national gender centre. And if you’re concerned about a climate emergency that’s going to destroy the planet, immediately ban all commercial air travel in and out of Sydney and Melbourne and THEN come up to Queensland and we can discuss Adani.

      • @HnH more than half the electorate. I voted Affordable Housing + Sustainable #1&#2. I gave Labor a preference and Libs nothing. My hands are clean of this mess as far as I’m concerned.

      • Andrew, what policy debate? All Morrison did was to successfully tapped into self interest and entitlement.

      • Andrew +1 IT was the first time I have ever voted Liberal, and it was all about the Galilee basin, jobs and Royalties. THe state election will be the second time I vote Liberal, (unless I vote UAP?)

      • TheRedEconomistMEMBER

        @Andrew

        You can generate power many ways.. Solar, Wind, Hydro and Gas

        Have the Queenlander’s invented teleporting?

        Beam me up Sco Mo…

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Lol a blunt stick in the eye or a blunt stick in both…… hmmmm
      And as for Rudd ….. the guy had a ‘mare…… the spots never change.

      As for Scumo, he will probably be brought down and face-plant at some point soonish…… the smirk actually reminds me of Rudd.

    • 6 mths to go. The North and west to benfite most from crowning clown boy King taps being turn back on fresh fish human cargo to complement tweaking of Apra to come trade War resolved before crissy its on like Donkey cong again who could known

      • North Qld gets its coal and jobs.

        Sydney and Melbourne get population growth and vibrancy.

        I hear North Qlders say “suck on that big one you loser inner-city nobs”

      • kannigetMEMBER

        QLD Gets a hole in the ground, a year or so of FIFO workers and then a drop to about 100 permanent locals spread across the state from the mine to the port. if the rest of the world keeps scaling back demand for coal at the rate it has been then its likely the mine will get put on hold. They still have to get all the funding in place.

        The local economy only gets a boost from the FIFO’s in that they spend money in the local shops. Many of them will be relatively frugal so its only going to help a small amount.

        If QLD did vote based on this then it was either delusion or an F You to the rest of the country for daring to try and tell them it was a bad idea. Looking at the way the preferences went I doubt the mine had much sway in the vote, it was immigration and as the ALP talked about increases the LNP gathered the preferences.

        Looking at Capricornia, there was a massive 16% swing to PHON, 3.58% to the UAP, the Greens also picked up a small swing. there was a swing away from the liberals. So the One electorate that will benefit from the mine saw immigration as a bigger issue.

      • @ kanniget – you are a Gold plated loon, 100 jobs? there are more than that in the head office in Townsville already. Not to mention the jobs from the other 7 mines which are looking likely now, or the 1,000s of jobs that will be supported by the 200 million pa in royalties. It should fairly obvious to most that it was overwhelmingly ALL about Adani and the Galilee, the whole of Australia was subject to the proposed changes to taxation and franking credits, but only in Regional Qld were there swings of between 7.5 to OVER 11% Massive. BRING ON THE STATE ELECTION, i cant wait.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        @ Carey 01
        now subtract the mine closures and job losses the Adani project will produce in the Hunter.

      • A) There will obviously still be a net benefit given the majority of the coal mined will be replacing that currently sourced from Indonesia by Adina
        B) I don’t give a rats about the job losses in the Hunter, I live in Qld Are you suggesting the Hunter be allowed to continually expand production and benefit from those expansions and Qld can not – I’m calling BS on that

      • Lol, 7 News ran a segment on Gumtree land sales a few hours ago. It was on Facebook can’t link directly but that is also pop corn worthy. $100k down. Uber drivers.

  2. ha ha!

    I do not even know what that is a photo of. It is not wide enough to be a liver.

  3. SweeperMEMBER

    I thought we were told we couldn’t trust Labor.
    progressive tax reform, detailed costed policies presented before an election, action on climate change, steps towards addressing inequality, defence of wages, genuine crackdown on banking.. now all off the agenda well forever. Labor will drift back to the right. The debate will get even worse, more three word slogans, more fear more stupidity, more journalism for as far as the eye can see.

    But at least we don’t have to worry about parental visas
    Yeah I’m glad people didn’t trust Labor.

    • I would rather have a smoking husk of a country if it was High-IQ Euro-EastAsian than a ‘fair’ society filled with 3rd world males.

      • Two bad options?

        I thought there was only one.

        Keating !

        It sounds like Sweeper is taking a few precious minutes off from blaming absolutely everything on Keating.

        Which is kind of amazing as we all know that no Liberal is responsible for anything after 1996.

      • SweeperMEMBER

        You are wrong about that 007.
        I fully blame Keating for giving Murdoch a permanent veto over all election results by handing him the HWT to in his words create a “prince of print”.
        Keating destroyed democracy.

    • Yep, totally agree Sweeper. It looks like those who advocated or voted for Liberal have already commenced their butt covering for the inevitable economic armageddon. The way people reposition their viewpoints is like the hands of a clock… so slowly you don’t really notice it until hey presto you look and the hands are in a completely different place. But you know sometimes when you see the hands actually move?.. . that’s what we’re seeing here.

      Buyer’s remorse has already hit. I think it started yesterday. A new world record.

    • Detailed costed policies? Like I can’t cost my climate change policy but the alternaive is worse so stop asking questions about it even though it will massively upset the status quo.

  4. StephenMEMBER

    What we will get is a short term budget surplus? I doubt it – the leading indicators aren’t looking to me like their projections are going to come about… If the housing crash continues and they make their cuts to try and achieve surplus, demand is going to continue to evaporate, wages won’t rise but unemployment probably will (hello automatic stabilisers), and the revenue won’t be there.

    • Don’t be silly stephen. The last 20 years should’ve shown you that you don’t need revenue to boost house prices. You need debt.

      In this case – government debt. The debt will be there, don’t you worry

  5. No free childcare
    No rise in the minimum wage
    No lift in the income tax free threshold
    More road tunnels instead of high speed rail

    $77 billion in tax cuts for the rich
    No grandfathering of franking credits
    No grandfathering of novated leasing

    • BadaBingMEMBER

      And no federal ICAC. Can’t wait to witness the dizzying new heights of corruption this government achieves. But yeah, this Lib gov really is so much better than labor would have been. We really dodged a bullet!

  6. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    At least the coming recession will be owned by the LNP in its entirety! Go Scomo! Headed for the gutter with skates on.

  7. Yeah fair call H&H. But how does that differ if we had actually got Bill Shorten & the ALP? Not sure I could rule a line through much of that list. I guess we would have got Tanya’s free wheeling higher education open flood gate & a squillion oldies from afar. ALP had some stuff re tax changes, I’ll give them that, but nothing else on the list is really substantially different. And certainly none of the other disparate parties of whatever name or leaning were coming up with anything that was going to cover off on your list. So the question is who or how do we get that list completed? Not sure there is anyone.

  8. Yep – the LNP were handed the election by people from the Left marching to the far Right as they have been given no place to go – simple. Lots of people have seen this coming. People like Angela Nagle have written about it at length:

    https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/11/the-left-case-against-open-borders/

    It spells the death of the ALP, largely for two reasons, as she explains:

    “There is no getting around the fact that the power of unions relies by definition on their ability to restrict and withdraw the supply of labour, which becomes impossible if an entire workforce can be easily and cheaply replaced. Open borders and mass immigration are a victory for the bosses. And the bosses almost universally support it …”

    “Today’s well-intentioned activists have become the useful idiots of big business. With their adoption of “open borders” advocacy—and a fierce moral absolutism that regards any limit to migration as an unspeakable evil—any criticism of the exploitative system of mass migration is effectively dismissed as blasphemy.”

    By blasphemy she means ‘racism’.

    Mass immigration causes the ALP vote to shrink in two broad ways. Droves of workers have headed for the far-Right for traditional labour and union reasons – jobs, stagnant wages and house price inflation as well as a wish to defend national values from globalist decay – that’s a trend happening all over the world but the ALP has not noticed apparently. Moreover, many new immigrants from socially conservative countries do not support the sexual and gender identify politics and education programs championed by the boutique identity politics Left. I doubt that they care about unions either.

    So the ALP has invested a mountain of hubris over mass immigration and gone backwards and won’t even talk about the demographic and cultural suicide pact that they have signed up to.

    Kind of amusing that the feedback loop of PC politics has caused the ALP to keep supporting the very thing that is driving away its base – it’s own boutique ideology and refusal to respond to its own people.

    • Great summary Clive. Also energy – how can you be one of the worlds great energy exporters and charge your working class and small businesses obscene prices?

      In Queensland, the Labor Premier has already launched ‘It’s all about Jobs n Growf” spin. It’s like there is a constitutional law that they cannot talk about sensible population policy or sensible population growth.

    • This is exactly why I didn’t vote Labor this time but have voted for them in the past

    • Stewie GriffinMEMBER

      “The election by people from the Left marching to the far Right as they have been given no place to go.”

      Bingo…. like H&H said

      “Expect the polity to grow ever angrier as they are lied to about income growth that never comes, wealth inequality that only gets worse, utility prices that only rise, the crush loading of every road, train, hospital and school, and ever greater corruption in corporate Australia.”

      …until eventually they do find a place to go. Then all the resulting chaos and extremism will be blamed on ‘white peoples’ intolerance.

  9. No Tax Cut for you!

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-20/scott-morrison-government-income-tax-cut-delay-election-budget/11132046

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants his tax cut plan to become law as soon as possible, so that it applies for tax returns lodged this financial year. But his efforts to do so may be blocked by a bureaucratic timeline beyond his control.

    This “bureaucratic timeline” is the return of the writs, which was decided when Morrison called the election. Must be a record for a broken promise!

    • Know IdeaMEMBER

      The juniper bush bears juniper berries!
      Its a miracle!

      (With obvious apologies to Monty Python).

  10. You should cut the poor Strayan souls some slack, HnH. Straya has been in a classic catch 22 situation for some time now – it cannot keep borrowing and yet it cannot not keep borrowing either.

    In the original catch 22, of course, there were two types of pilots. The conscious ones would sooner or later go insane as the realization of what they were in gradually sinks in. The gullible ones would keep flying the mission without giving much thought to it until, one day, they will be shot down and never to be seen again.

    As you know, a widespread capitulation is essential before a major trend reversal. So…..

    Give yourself to the Moron Side. It is the only way you can save your beloved Strayan economy.

  11. proofreadersMEMBER

    “That’s the Messiah from The Shire.”

    But, but he is the miracle we have been granted?

  12. reusachtigeMEMBER

    The Liberal Nationalist Party are the best party this nation has ever had and they will be strong and successful. They are for the winners. Else, losers.

  13. Denis413MEMBER

    no banking reform, indeed the opposite in regulatory wind back;

    So APRA to reverse and pretend the RC never happened?

    • proofreadersMEMBER

      Yep. ScoMo did not vote 26 times against having a RC, for there to be any hope of reform out of it?

  14. QuentinMEMBER

    LOL at the shopping list of ‘criticl issues’ that will not be touched. Of course Sco Mo won’t. Why should he? Last Saturday the electorate sent a clear message that even though they may at times express a desire for reform and sometimes it may occur if there is not much tangible cost (see eg: SSM plebiscite) once you say there is a cost and there will be losers that have to adjust we don’t want a bar of it. At all. Politicians the entire decade have run on this everybody-winism and don’t vote for for this bloke because that is threatened.

    It was interesting to see Abbott in his loss speech note how when they are faced with the moral argument of climate change they (the LNP) lose, but faced with the economic argument they are on a winner. It occurred to me that this is entirely replicable for all Oz policies in the last decade (including his own). It was moral to tax super profits of miners selling natural resources, but once the cost was argued it is electoral poison. See also the moral arguments of sustaining the health system by charging $7 for the doctor, staying globally competetive with corporate tax rates, cooling the housing market by removing investor tax perks etc.

    I am very hesitant after electoral results I don’t like to blame the electorate. By doing this you are only doing Clinton’s Deplorables. However, the result Saturday and issues alluded to above has helped me understand Australia better. We always say how the people are laid back and easy going; but let’s face it the place is super conservative and the only time the ALP got a majority in the last quarter century is when they got a dorky church goer to essentially argue he is a copy/paste of Howard.

    Change will only come very, very slowly and possibly only after a crisis. Saying there is a shopping list of critical issues that Sco Mo must address is as futile as the ALP taking an election mandate of crticial issues they want to address.

    • The Grey Rider

      Looking through the rear view mirror as the wreckage from the weekend slowly disappears, I find myself wondering if Labor deliberately drove into the ditch…and had decided to do so 2 or more years ago.

      • It doesn’t surprise me one bit if the ALP intended to throw the election without being seen to be doing so. In fact I said as much a while ago.

        After all, every political strategist should be able to tell that holding the bomb when it finally detonates would be a bad idea.

      • Sure. And Penny Wong’s national TV meltdown and Pkibersek’s near mental break down were all part of the act.
        These people crave power at any cost. They thought the election was in the bag as the Libs had mirrored the Rudd/Gillard dysfunction and then some.
        Hubris crept into an ambitious program which managed to alienate enough segments of the population cost them office.

    • But even better when no-one expected it. We are about to get Trumped as the IPA, APC and RupNews (with the Boy dying to demonstrate his RWNJ credentials) colour in the paper cut-out that Australians voted for.

      A Lucky Country governed by second (being generous) rate people 🙁

  15. “plus anything and everything to lift house prices”. It’s hard to shake the thought that in the end this was what many people were voting for.

    • Data does not quite support it. The election was losr im queensland. House prices are most down in sydney, melbourne and perth..
      Fear of house price drops should be greater here
      What was im qld was rhe far right opposing immigration. I think ultimately lower immigration is why the election was lost.

      • Fair point, but remember house prices have collapsed in regional Qld, they just never recovered like Syd/Melb. But having spent many years in regional Queensland, and with a lot of friends there, immigration was never really raised. Resource jobs and cost of living was big – they want those resource jobs up there it’s critical.

        We can’t talk about limits on coal and climate change until we have rebuilt our productive economy, and reserving our energy exports for our own use is part of this story.

      • Yeah that big immigration line regarding Qld is a bit of a furphy. In my view it is more because many / most Queenslanders are extremely conservative as in they don’t like change. At the state level they kicked out Cando Campbell because he proved to be a bit of a lair and voted in a female laborite. All the changes that Labor were promising in this election likely spooked them and Scromo with his no substance campaign seems to have comforted or lulled them into supporting him.

      • kannigetMEMBER

        People rarely talk openly about their true motivations, and from a political stance this is getting worse, not better.
        If you look at the AEC website, Across QLD most electorates swung to either PHON, UAP, Fraser Anning or independents. A few went greens, a few went liberal but the majority were to the candidates whose main, and in some cases only policy was immigration related.

        Lower immigration = lower house prices so I dont buy the house prices being the major drivers.

  16. Looking forward to my tax cuts. Taking away my hard earned wages to spaff them up the wall of a National Gender Centre was never going to be a vote winner.

  17. I’m not that worried yet. I think a hostile senate will keep them in check as they would have for the alp. I don’t understand why people think a party change will change anything these days. It’s all about the onward pressure on the citizens by vested interests where our lifestyle is crushed. This is nothing yet either as they ramp up the surveillance for you own safety. I’m not sure we’ll ever see a tax cut as the prices of everything go through the roof. I’ll bet we’d be discussing the same set of issues next millennium.

  18. ScoMo is another kick of the can,;
    Exactly: but is predictability ever a complete disaster?
    We all know what this means and it sure as heck does not mean major change, so whatever worked in the recent past will be back in fashion in no time flat.
    Maybe this is more of what we don’t need, another sugar hit when we’re all struggling with Metabolic syndrome, but it’s what we voted for (we voted for change and the Preference system delivered sameness) what can one say ….plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose

  19. MB. Time to change your icon for Morrison. Like or no like – He won the office of PM, highest elected office in country. Time to be civil and respect the office. Humor is fine, but at least, try not to be way crass.
    Was debatable when SM made PM through internal machinations. But thats still our system.

    • Have to agree. The blog’s getting a bit petulant. Just ’cause your Union stooge didn’t win, you’ve really had a wobbly. You did better when you had a bit more critical analysis and Bill wasn’t the Messiah….

      • BubbleyMEMBER

        Nah mate. Its the fact that a party with no policies and massive infighting got in by scaring old ladies saying going to lose their franking credits, when they didn’t even own shares or understand what franking credits are.

    • kannigetMEMBER

      Just because HE won office does not make him an honourable man, HE is not the office, he is the occupant of that office. While I admit its a tad purile to make digs at him like this, I think his behavior has not exactly been honourable.

      Respect is something your given, then loose and have to earn back. In my opinion of him he does not deserve respect though I respect the office he holds. All of the MP’s have the honorific title of “Honourable member for XXX”, how many of them deserve respect?

      • Respect IS a 2 way street – not merely to/from our aspirational PM, but to the defeated yet ‘aspiring’ opposition and to/from our aspiring democracy at large. People who whinge about our democracy and our candidates forget the Government and elected MPs senators are a mirror to us all. Of course it is embarrassing at times. Do something constructive.
        You undermine the value and effort of the commentary of MBs contribution when you are crass and self indulgent. Curse of lowest common denominator.

  20. HadronCollision

    The irony of people voting for change by voting for 2 parties who were going to preference LNP aka no change, is delicious.

    Suffer in yer jocks.

    Also, add to your list HNH, Fed ICAC.

    • Mark HeydonMEMBER

      I don’t understand this. Parties don’t direct preferences, it isn’t a ‘ticket’ vote, although their how-to-vote cards can suggest how a voter casts their vote.
      If ONP and Clive voters directed their preferences to LNP, it was their own choice.

  21. Jumping jack flash

    “Moreover he did so by promising to do nothing so what now can he do?.”

    This +1000!
    At least he’s honest when promising nothing, because nothing is what they do best.

    He basically was channelling Abbott this election.
    Do nothing and then attack anything that was proposed by the other side.

    another decade of doing nothing… le sigh…

    but, what can they actually do?

    climate change: zero;
    They have no control over the climate, nor do they want it. Their mates don’t want it. Care factor zero.

    gas crisis to metastasise into LNG imports;
    they have no jurisdiction over gas, nor any control over the private markets. If LNG imports are required, then so be it. The market has spoken.

    electricity prices to rise further;
    see gas

    over-population to worsen;
    “Overpopulation” is a funny word. More like immigration to continue, but 3rd world immigration is a symptom of the debt we all have, and the “need” for more.

    infrastructure deficit to rise;
    They love spending on infrastructure because it is big and visible. It actually does nothing for the national economy long term, nor does it do anything to fix the debt problem. Infrastructure is usually sold off, or part of those PPPs where private companies have control of it anyway, and treat it like a cash cow.

    wages growth to fall away;
    They have no control over wages paid by private companies in a private labour market.

    no tax reform;
    Hello? those tax cuts he’s “rushing through” for the workers?? Taxation and the spending of it is pretty much the ONLY thing they can control.

    no structural reform to the Aussie economy away from houses and holes;
    Why change perfection?

    no competition reform;
    Population is too small to support actual competition in most things. Consider private health insurance, airlines, telecoms, etc, etc, they all charge the same price, generally, and all increase their prices in step. Government has no control over this.

    no innovation reform;
    All they can do is spend tax dollars, and who needs greasy nerds making up stuff? Just buy it from China.

    no productivity reform;
    They have no control over private companies in a free market economy

    no banking reform, indeed the opposite in regulatory wind back;
    they have no control over private banks in a free market economy.

    no monetary reform;
    They have no control over the RBA. The regulators are proven to be corrupt.

    action on China’s silent invasion is zero so far but let’s hope…
    China gives us money. Money good.

    US alliance, see above;
    Asia, see above;
    Pacific, see above.

  22. At least PM Morrison has a better China containment strategy then Labour, but he still has to prove he can manage something else well beside a real estate bubble.

    • BubbleyMEMBER

      Oh yes, Darwin’s port was sold to the Chinese by Andrew Robb the LNP trade minister and Victoria has signed up for China’s Silk Road venture.

      How’s that LNP/China containment program going again?