We have released the April 2019 edition of our confidence index, based on our rolling 52,000 household survey. The index fell again, to an all time low.
All wealth segments declined (even those without a mortgage), but those leveraged up are really concerned now.
Property Investors continue to take a bath, thanks to lower capital values, falling rental returns, switching from interest only to principal and interest, and fears about negative gearing changes.
The selected states continue to converge.
Younger households are the most concerned. Older, less leveraged households are more positive relatively, but still below long term averages.
In the video we look at the various drivers to the index, but the conclusion is that more households are seeing their net worth declining. Much of this is thanks to property values continuing to fall.
Regretfully, I cannot see anything on the horizon to change this trajectory. So expect more falls ahead!
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
