MB Fund Podcast: Is the housing bust ending?

As the mainstream media are beginning to publish some bullish ‘green shoot’ news on the Australian property market, we take a look at a series of indicators to check whether the bulls have awoken on time, or early.

So join MB Fund’s Head of Investments Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist David Llewellyn Smith, Chief Economist Leith Van Onselen and Tim Fuller as we look at the state of the Australian property market pullback and if it has more to run.

Slides can be found here.


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Tim Fuller is Head of Operations at the Macrobusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.

The information on this blog contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Tim Fuller is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management, a Corporate Authorised Representative of Integrity Private Wealth Pty Ltd, AFSL 436298.

Comments

  1. IF Labor win, I think the impact of the elderly relatives import policy will not have the level of impact on housing demand that you are suggesting. Most of the draw countries would be more likely to have the elderly share the current home or dwelling – arguably they might be forced to upsize and leave the dog box apartment.

    That is IF they win, despite MB’s ongoing confidence, the hubris of the Labor party might be their undoing. The extent of grey rage over imputation credit and NG is underestimated. It is necessary policy but the result will tell if they were brave or just plain stupid leading with this stuff.

      • What level of unemployment / underemployment would the recently arrived Australians experience? It might be that is cheaper to offshore those tech roles. No need for baby sitters for that cohort.

    • Labor are far better than Liberals, but some of the half cocked ideas they have put on the table baffle me. Like the Elderly parents. FFS.

  2. Population growth is almost irrelevant for bubble performance. Fastest growing US states like AZ, NV and FL saw the biggest busts

    • Population growth stokes greed, but that doesn’t matter once fear is in control.

  3. They’ve been calling green shoots every three months since the downturn started.

    What is the evidence. Corelogic index is a sea of red and drops accelerating again after the March seasonal bump. Economic conditions deteriorating. Anti-property investment government about to come in. Chinese money gone. Bulls are delusional. I say this as someone who is about to buy a house and is fully expecting it to lose value.

  4. Credit can’t funnel to businesses if businesses see that the consumer is being affected by deflating housing credit – they won’t borrow at any price if there is no customers. Business expect a net profit as a sector; any spending must return its money back and its the consumer sector that delivers this money mostly. Without the housing market being re-inflated or at least stabilized whilst people pay down their debts no interest rate will encourage businesses to invest particularly in a low-demand environment. Only credit that matters is to households, businesses then follow IMO since there’s money out there to earn.