Lunatic RBA will surely cut in June

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Let me run you through some charts from the NAB business survey to make the point. Westpac does a nice job of drawing them up year over year. Headline indexes are back to 2013/14:

Employment too:

And forward orders:

Capex is a bit better but not for long:

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All cyclical industries are folding:

States are converging on universal weakness:

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In short, the economy has already regressed to the 2013/14 period when the RBA slashed rates four times (with four more ahead):

And this this time around the RBA is also toying with a property bust that could pass a tipping point for banks at any time. Nobody knows when, including the RBA.

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First of four cuts must come in June.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.